Iran: How "Ahmadinejad v. Paul the Octopus" Became a Global Showdown

It was only a sentence in a very, very long speech.

After a rather slow start --- "if one really makes a big success of it, the middle age will be the period in which what was achieved in youth would be consolidated" --- President Ahmadinejad's talk at the closing ceremony of the Iranian Youth Festival in Tehran last Friday was full of juicy soundbites.

There was the denunciation of a US-led plot "to carry out a military invasion of one or two countries in the Middle East, which are our friends, with the help of...disgraced Israelis". There was the portrayal of a deceitful Russian President Dmitry Medvedev offering support by "perform[ing] at a US show". There was the declaration, "The Iranian nation will crush hundreds of America's propagandist plays with its will and unity."

Little wonder, then, that this sentence initially slipped by with little notice: "Recently in the World Championship [football's World Cup] you saw that those who proclaim to have reached the peaks of history wanted to manipulate people's minds through superstition, an octopus, fortune-telling and such things."

Enter the magic of the German newspaper Bild. On Monday, their intrepid reporters turned Ahmadinejad's aside into the Main Event: "He incites against Israel, against the US and the West in general --- but now the crazy Iranian dictator is going after Paul the Octopus!...For Ahmadinejad, Paul is a symbol of the propaganda and superstitions of the West."

Paul the Octopus, for those who have been away from Planet Earth this summer, was the unexpected star of the 2010 World Cup, picking the winner in all of Germany's matches (including, at great risk to his life, Spain's defeat of the Germans in the semi-final) and then calling the Spanish victory over Holland in the final. He had also allegedly intervened in Iranian politics, calling an ultimate win for opposition figure Mir Hossein Mousavi over the Supreme Leader.

Forget minor events like Ayatollah Khamenei's "I am the Rule of the Prophet" fatwa or the manoeuvres against the Iranian President. Paul v. Mahmoud was the story, sometimes the only story --- once you looked past mythical or real nuclear weapons, of course --- on Iran.

On Tuesday afternoon, the Daily Telegraph of London, which has a penchant for Wacky Ahmadinejad stories (see their superlative "Mahmoud is a Jew" effort), proclaimed, "Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian leader, says Paul the Octopus, the sea creature that correctly predicted the outcome of World Cup games, is a symbol of all that is wrong with the western world." (There was no mention of Bild for its investigative coup.) And by Wednesday, British tabloids such as the Daily Mail and the Daily Mirror, as well as the broadsheet The Guardian, were reprinting the story with minor changes in wording (although The Guardian deserves a bonus point for the headline, "West Spreads Evil Tentacles into Iran").

Time magazine picked up the tale --- "[Paul] just calls it like it is — or will be". Rory Fitzgerald at The Huffington Post attempted satire by penning Paul's response: "He...said that he had never before seen such a lack of a sense of humor in a human being, despite the fact that he lives in Germany." Fox News posted the item in its "Science and Technology" section. IsraelPolitik, "The Political Blog of the State of Israel", jumped in, "If Paul the Octopus is on Ahmadinejad’s 'hitlist', no one is safe."

By Wednesday afternoon, there were so many reprints or minor variations of the tale --- all without noting the original Ahmadinejad sentence, all without crediting Bild --- that The Los Angeles Times (which credited The Daily Telegraph) was publishing a round-up.

Is there a moral here? Probably not. It's just a tale of how the world works, when the fatwa of a Supreme Leader --- a Supreme Leader who may be in political trouble --- just can't match up to the scenario of Bad Guy Politician v. Eight-Legged Psychic.

And you don't even need Paul --- or Mahmoud for that matter --- to tell you that.

[Thanks to Borzou Daragahi for sending me a full copy of Ahmadinejad's speech]

The Latest from Iran (15 July): The Zahedan Bombing

2130 GMT: The Zahedan Bombing. Back from a family break to learn about the two explosions, reportedly caused by suicide bombers, which have killed more than 20 people and wounded more than 100 in the southeastern Iranian city of Zahedan in Sistan-Baluchestan Province.

The explosions occurred in front of Zahedan's Grand Mosque. The first was at 9:20 p.m. local time (1650 GMT) and was followed by a second blast within minutes. A local MP claimed the first suicide bomber, dressed as a woman, tried to get into the mosque but was prevented

There are reports that members of the Revolutionary Guard are amongst the dead.

Deputy Interior Minister Ali Abdollahi has always described the incident as a "terrorist act". The prime suspect will be the Baluch insurgent group Jundullah, whose leader Abdolmalek Rigi was recently executed.

NEW Iran Follow-Up: The Story Beyond the Opposition, Enduring America, and US “Neoconservatives"
Iran: Understanding That Nuclear Scientist/Abduction Case (All It Takes is 1 Cartoon)
Iran Through the Looking Glass: “Never Judge Enduring America by Its Cover”
The Latest from Iran (14 July): Getting to the Point

1709 GMT: Rafsajani Watch. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, in an interview with Ertebatat monthly, has said, "Under the pretext of opposition to me, [Mohammad] Khatami, Nategh Nouri and [Mehdi] Karroubi, Ahmadinejad has put on sale all the achievements of the Revolution."

1700 GMT: Today's All-Is-Well Alert. From Press TV:

Iran's jet fuel production will soon surpass its local demand, as the country is boosting its production capacity in central Iran, an official says. Ali Dehqanian, a senior official with Isfahan Oil Refining Company (IORC), said the company currently produces 1.3 million liters of fuel jet per day, noting that Iran needs 4 million liters of fuel jet per day....

He added that an optimization project is underway in the company's fuel production unit that when complete will increase its jet fuel production to 5 million liters per day.

The official noted that 70 percent of the project has already been completed.

1658 GMT: The Electricity Squeeze. Rah-e-Sabz claims the Iran Khodro and Saipa automobile companies will close down on certain days during the week. The same is expected for other big firms.

1655 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Radio Zamaneh interviews two leading merchants from the Tehran Bazaar: "We Do Not Trust the Government's Promises".

1645 GMT: What is Ayatollah Yazdi Up To? Okay, so here's a summary of the statement by Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi at a meeting for the "Velayat Project" at Shahid Beheshti University:

Some think that the Supreme Leader has a representative function like the British Queen, but this is not true. Ayatollah Khomeini said: If the chosen President is not appointed by the Supreme Leader, he is a "taghout" (monarchist) and following him is haram (forbidden).

On the surface, that looks to be a straight-forward defence of Ayatollah Khamenei. But EA's Ms Zahra thinks there may be another interpreation: "This is a preparation for Yazdi's own succession as Leader and a justification of Ahmadinejad. He pretends to defend Khamenei's right to intervene in all matters, but even raising the "untrue" comparison with the Queen is an indirect attack.

1525 GMT: The Bigger Guardian Council Story? We noted the immediate headline today that the Supreme Leader had re-appointed three clerical representatives on the Guardian Council (see 1412 GMT).

This, however, is much more interesting. Sadegh Larijani, the head of Iran's judiciary, now names three of the "legal" representatives. His short-list --- Mohammad Salimi, Ahmad Beygi Habib-Abadi, Mohammad Reza Alizadeh, Mohammad Hadi Sadegh, and Siamak Rahpeyk --- excludes two candidates, current Council member Gholam-Hossein Elham and Assembly of Experts member Ayatollah Ka'abi, who are seen as pro-Ahmadinejad.

1455 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Alef has posted pictures of Tehran Bazaar today. Some show vendors doing business, others are of rows of closed stalls:

1450 GMT: Remembering. An activist translates Fereshteh Ghazi's account of the life and death of Amir Javadifar, who was abused and killed in Kahrizak Prison a year ago.

1428 GMT: Russia's Carrot-and-Stick Play. Meeting his Iranian counterpart Massoud Mir-Kazemi in Moscow, Russian Minister of Energy Sergei Shmatko praised “active cooperation between Russian and Iranian companies in the oil, gas and petrochemical sectors, which are developing and widening in their joint work”.

Yet Russian President Dmitry Medvedev seems to have put out a wordy warning to Tehran over the nuclear issue, "I would like to say that Iran is our rather active trading partner and has been tested by time, but that does not mean we are indifferent to the way Iran is developing its nuclear programme and we are not indifferent to how the military components of the corresponding programme look."

Analysis, please: is Moscow indicating that the recently-toughened UN sanctions are not a restriction on Iran's energy sector or is Shmatko's statement just a bit of rhetorical "balancing" to avoid a complete detachment from Tehran while his President stands alongside the "West"?

1412 GMT: The Guardians of the Guardian Council. Back from travels to find that the Supreme Leader has reinstated Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, Ayatollah Gholam Reza Rezvani, and Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Modarresi Yazdi, three of the six clerics on the 12-member Guardian Council.

0914 GMT: We've posted an analysis by Mr Verde of the bigger significance yesterday's opinion piece on the opposition website Rah-e-Sabz: "The Story Beyond the Opposition, Enduring America, and US 'Neoconservatives'".

0910 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Kalemeh, the website linked to Mir Hossein Mousavi, claims that the gold market in Tehran Bazaar is still closed.

0635 GMT: On Guard! General Amir Ahmad-Reza Pourdastan, commander of Iran's land forces, has announced that large parts of southern Iran will become "armed territory".

However, the foreign threat is not the main concern of Hojatoleslam Ali Saidi, the Supreme Leader's representative to the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps. He has declared that the "smallest mistake of officials will be punished heavily".

0630 GMT: Economy Watch (Revolutionary Guard Edition). The Minister of Economy, speaking in the Parliament, has spoken about the privatisation of Iran Telecom. He said that a rival of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps was eliminated from the bidding after the demand of  "one of the securityforces organisations".

0625 GMT: Government Retreat on Subsidy Cuts? Mohammad Reza Farzin, the Deputy Minister of Economy, has said the subsidy cut plan could be postponed. The current intention is to start reductions in Mehr (September/October), but Farzin says this is "perhaps too early".

0620 GMT: The Universities Dispute. Rah-e-Sabz reports that the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has met former President Hashemi Rafsanjani to discuss the conflict over control of Islamic Azad University, but there has been no resolution.

0555 GMT: To Lose One Journalist is a Misfortune, To Lose Four Looks Like Carelessness. Peyke Iran claims that a cultural reporter for Fars News has fled to France. His departure follows those of Hossein Salmanzadeh of the photo section, photojournalist Javad Moghimi, and political journalist Farahmand Alipour.

0530 GMT: Many thanks to readers for providing a rolling service of news and analysis while I was busy in the International Summer School on Wednesday.

Catching Up with the News....

Amiri Not A Nuclear Scientist Shocker

Iranian state media is setting out the line on the curious case of scientist Shahram Amiri, who returned to Iran from the US yesterday, purportedly through his words on his 14 months outside the country. Press TV has him saying:

The US administration has connected my abduction to Iran's nuclear case to pursue certain goals and exert pressure on the Iranian government. While I was being interrogated by US intelligence agents, they urged me to announce that I carried a laptop containing important information and applied for asylum.

The statement links back to the Americans' claim in recent years that they have an Iranian laptop proving Iran's pursuit of a nuclear weapons, a claim disputed by many analysts. There are flourishes such as "Israel agents" at Amiri's interrogation, the "heaviest mental torture", and an offer of $10 million to appear on CNN and announce his defection.

Interestingly, Amiri is no longer a "nuclear scientist" in the article. He is an "academic".

Why the US would put so much effort into abducting a mere "scholar" is not made clear by Press TV.

And He Doesn't Get His $5 Million, Either

The US Government line, put out in The Washington Post, is a good-bye to Amiri with the sneer, "We're keeping your defection money."

Officials say Amiri was paid more than $5 million by the CIA before breaking off "significant cooperation" and "abruptly returning" to Iran because he missed his family:

Anything he got is now beyond his reach, thanks to the financial sanctions on Iran. He's gone, but his money's not. We have his information, and the Iranians have him.