The Latest from Iran (29 July): 22% Support?

1935 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Activist Hoda Saber, who was mysteriously taken by unknown persons on Saturday, has called his family from Evin Prison. The reason for arrest is unknown.

International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran updates on the transfer of 15 political prisoners, including student activist Abdollah Momeni and journalist Bahman Ahmadi Amoui, to solitary confinement in Evin Prison. (We have previously reported that 10 detainees were transferred.) The 15 are protesting the “unsuitable treatment of prisoners and their families by prison authorities and Ward 350 officers on visitation days; lack of health and welfare facilities; as well as suspension of visitation privileges of several prisoners.”

NEW Iran Analysis: Twisting & Turning to Prove the Leader is Supreme (Verde)
NEW Iran: How “Ahmadinejad v. Paul the Octopus” Became a Global Showdown
Iran Analysis: The Hardliners Take on Ahmadinejad
Latest Iran Video: Ahmadinejad on Afghanistan, Sanctions, & the US (26 July)
The Latest from Iran (28 July): A Presidential Target?

1730 GMT: Sporting Moment. Kodoom reports on triumph turned into trouble....

Hossein Askari, riding for the Tabriz Petrochemical Cycling Team, won the Tour of Qinghai Lake in China.  However, according to Ali Zangiabadi, the director of the Iranian Cycling Federation, Askari will face disciplinary action in Iran after he popped the cork from a champagne bottle in his victory celebration.



1720 GMT: Academic Corner. The Educational Testing Service has announced that it is resuming registrations in Iran for TOEFL (Teaching of English as a Foreign Language) and GRE (Graduate Record Examination) tests.

The examinations, which are vital for many Iranian students who wish to study abroad, were suspended two weeks ago after tighter U.N. Security Council restrictions on financial transactions involving Iran led to ETS's banking arrangements being discontinued. Students wishing to take the tests may now register through Iran's National Organization of Educational Testing or mayn use credit/debit cards issued by banks that are not prohibited under UN or US sanctions.

1530 GMT: Solving the Oil Squeeze? Three Russian state-controlled oil companies may begin delivering gasoline to Iran in a month, the head of the Iran Commission of the Moscow Chamber of Commerce & Industry has said. Talks are being held on a “working level” and the first delivery may take place in late August or September.

1500 GMT: Karroubi Answers. Mehdi Karroubi has offered a response to Ayatollah Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council (see separate entry): "If I am an intriguer, then you are in league with those who stole the people's votes....What you called sedition was an election which was as usual engineered by you and think tanks led by you or others like you at the Ministry of Interior and Guardian Council."

1420 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Iranian activists have posted an updated letter, addressed to the Supreme Leader, requesting commutation of the death sentences of Jafar Kazemi (see 1110 GMT) and Mohammad Ali Haj Aghaei, both arrested during post-election protests and accused of "mohareb" (war against God).

Radio Zamaneh has now posted an English text of the news of Kazemi's sentence.

1410 GMT: Oil Squeeze. Reports indicate that Iran shipped around 9 million barrels of crude oil to China in June, a fall of 13.1 million barrels from last year.

1400 GMT: Water Watch. The Los Angeles Times updates on the reports that water in parts of Tehran are contaminated with high levels of toxic nitrate.

The article reports that the Ministry of Power has handed out free bottles of water to an underprivileged suburb south of the city. The Water and Sewage Waste Organization has recently dug new wells to expand the water supply. However, Minister of Health Marziyeh Vahid Dastjerdi announced that the amount of nitrate found in the drinking water in parts of Tehran exceeded the appropriate level, posing a serious threat to city-dwellers’ health.

1310 GMT: Mousavi Watch (1988 Edition). An EA correspondent checks in:

"The big news today is Enqelab Eslami, the Paris newspaper of former President Abulhassan Bani-Sadr, is allegedly re-leaking the full contents of the letter that Mousavi wrote to Ayatollah Khamenei in 1988 explaining his sudden resignation as Prime Minister. (The resignation was refused by Khomeini, who forced Mousavi to stay on.)

The contents, which I am trying to verify, are amusing: Mousavi decries his total lack of control or even information over events surrounding Iranian foreign policy and activities. For example, he states that he received word through the press that Iranian pilgrims have been apprehended in Jeddah carrying firearms or that the Speaker or Parliament, Hashemi Rafsanjani, exchanged letters with the Prime Minister of Japan and Mousavi only got wind of it when both sides finished the exchange.

Essentially this is a strong accusation against the un-constitutional accumulation of powers by Khamenei. Enqelab Eslami first leaked the letter in 1988, prior to Khomeini's death. It now republishes iafter Mousavi's threat to reveal all, (see the letter posted on EA).

Now the ball's firmly in Mousavi's own court: he either needs to deny the veracity of the claims or confirm the letter...."

1140 GMT: Mousavi Watch. Kalemeh has a short report of Mir Hossein Mousavi's meeting this morning with members of the Assembly of Teachers and Researchers of Qom.

1110 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An Iranian activist reports that he death sentence of political prisoner Jafar Kazemi has been upheld by an appellate court.

Kazemi, arrested last September during protests, was convicted of "mohareb" (war against God) for connections with Mujahedin-e-Khalq, a charge that he has denied. He was also in prison for nine yers during the 1980s.

Reporters Without Borders has condemned the "abuse" of detained journalist Abdolreza Tajik and other political prisoners, “It is time for United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Navanethem Pillay to press the Iranian authorities to accept a visit from the UN special rapporteur on torture, so that he can investigate the allegations of mistreatment in Iranian prisons.”

This week the Tajik family wrote Iran’s head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, that the journalist said during a prison the privisit that he had been “dishonoured” and that he demanded to see his lawyer, Mohammad Sharif, and Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi.

1005 GMT: Oil Squeeze. The New York Times summarises Iran's announcement that it will increase domestic gasoline production by converting two petrochemical plants so they can produce gasoline by processing benzene.

Minister of Oil Masoud Mirkazemi's all-is-well alert was that Iran would become a net exporter of gasoline by 2015. Other scientists say, however, that gasoline from benzene will burn poorly with more impurities than regular gasoline, damaging engines.

0955 GMT: Security Escalation. Aftab News reports that 7000 bases for Basij militia are to be constructed, including 100 in Zanjan Province.

0930 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Add Australia to the list of countries ramping up restrictions on Tehran. Following the UN, US, and European Union measures, Canberra has tightened restrictions on Iranian oil and gas groups and companies for the first time and has banned trade of weapons and related material, including anything that could be used for development of nuclear, missile, chemical or biological capability.

0755 GMT: We have posted an analysis by Mr Verde, considering the significance of a speech by Ayatollah Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, "Twisting & Turning to Prove the Leader is Supreme".

0600 GMT: While we catch up with "other" news, we open today with a feature, "How 'Ahmadinejad v. Paul the Octopus' Became a Global Showdown".

The President may also want to take note of a recent poll conducted by the Iranian Student Polling Agency in which 56 percent of participants believe his popularity has declined over the past year while only 22 percent believe it has increased.

As readers know, we are cautious about any poll carried out inside Iran, but the ISPA, which surveyed 1172 people is is linked to Jahad Daneshgahi, an academic body which in turn is overseen by the Supreme Council for Cultural Revolution, headed by President Ahmadinejad.

Two-thirds of the respondents in the poll believe that dissatisfaction with the government remains widespread, if largely covert. Only 18% think that the government was able to control post-election protests.

Perhaps the most striking finding, however, is this: 80% said that economic issues such as inflation, lack of affordable housing, and unemployment are their main priorities. Lack of political and social freedoms was named by only 7%, weakening Islamic values concerned 6%, and international threats such as military attacks or economic sanctions was cited by 4% percent.

The Latest from Iran (15 July): The Zahedan Bombing

2130 GMT: The Zahedan Bombing. Back from a family break to learn about the two explosions, reportedly caused by suicide bombers, which have killed more than 20 people and wounded more than 100 in the southeastern Iranian city of Zahedan in Sistan-Baluchestan Province.

The explosions occurred in front of Zahedan's Grand Mosque. The first was at 9:20 p.m. local time (1650 GMT) and was followed by a second blast within minutes. A local MP claimed the first suicide bomber, dressed as a woman, tried to get into the mosque but was prevented

There are reports that members of the Revolutionary Guard are amongst the dead.

Deputy Interior Minister Ali Abdollahi has always described the incident as a "terrorist act". The prime suspect will be the Baluch insurgent group Jundullah, whose leader Abdolmalek Rigi was recently executed.

NEW Iran Follow-Up: The Story Beyond the Opposition, Enduring America, and US “Neoconservatives"
Iran: Understanding That Nuclear Scientist/Abduction Case (All It Takes is 1 Cartoon)
Iran Through the Looking Glass: “Never Judge Enduring America by Its Cover”
The Latest from Iran (14 July): Getting to the Point

1709 GMT: Rafsajani Watch. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, in an interview with Ertebatat monthly, has said, "Under the pretext of opposition to me, [Mohammad] Khatami, Nategh Nouri and [Mehdi] Karroubi, Ahmadinejad has put on sale all the achievements of the Revolution."

1700 GMT: Today's All-Is-Well Alert. From Press TV:

Iran's jet fuel production will soon surpass its local demand, as the country is boosting its production capacity in central Iran, an official says. Ali Dehqanian, a senior official with Isfahan Oil Refining Company (IORC), said the company currently produces 1.3 million liters of fuel jet per day, noting that Iran needs 4 million liters of fuel jet per day....

He added that an optimization project is underway in the company's fuel production unit that when complete will increase its jet fuel production to 5 million liters per day.

The official noted that 70 percent of the project has already been completed.

1658 GMT: The Electricity Squeeze. Rah-e-Sabz claims the Iran Khodro and Saipa automobile companies will close down on certain days during the week. The same is expected for other big firms.

1655 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Radio Zamaneh interviews two leading merchants from the Tehran Bazaar: "We Do Not Trust the Government's Promises".

1645 GMT: What is Ayatollah Yazdi Up To? Okay, so here's a summary of the statement by Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi at a meeting for the "Velayat Project" at Shahid Beheshti University:

Some think that the Supreme Leader has a representative function like the British Queen, but this is not true. Ayatollah Khomeini said: If the chosen President is not appointed by the Supreme Leader, he is a "taghout" (monarchist) and following him is haram (forbidden).

On the surface, that looks to be a straight-forward defence of Ayatollah Khamenei. But EA's Ms Zahra thinks there may be another interpreation: "This is a preparation for Yazdi's own succession as Leader and a justification of Ahmadinejad. He pretends to defend Khamenei's right to intervene in all matters, but even raising the "untrue" comparison with the Queen is an indirect attack.

1525 GMT: The Bigger Guardian Council Story? We noted the immediate headline today that the Supreme Leader had re-appointed three clerical representatives on the Guardian Council (see 1412 GMT).

This, however, is much more interesting. Sadegh Larijani, the head of Iran's judiciary, now names three of the "legal" representatives. His short-list --- Mohammad Salimi, Ahmad Beygi Habib-Abadi, Mohammad Reza Alizadeh, Mohammad Hadi Sadegh, and Siamak Rahpeyk --- excludes two candidates, current Council member Gholam-Hossein Elham and Assembly of Experts member Ayatollah Ka'abi, who are seen as pro-Ahmadinejad.

1455 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Alef has posted pictures of Tehran Bazaar today. Some show vendors doing business, others are of rows of closed stalls:

1450 GMT: Remembering. An activist translates Fereshteh Ghazi's account of the life and death of Amir Javadifar, who was abused and killed in Kahrizak Prison a year ago.

1428 GMT: Russia's Carrot-and-Stick Play. Meeting his Iranian counterpart Massoud Mir-Kazemi in Moscow, Russian Minister of Energy Sergei Shmatko praised “active cooperation between Russian and Iranian companies in the oil, gas and petrochemical sectors, which are developing and widening in their joint work”.

Yet Russian President Dmitry Medvedev seems to have put out a wordy warning to Tehran over the nuclear issue, "I would like to say that Iran is our rather active trading partner and has been tested by time, but that does not mean we are indifferent to the way Iran is developing its nuclear programme and we are not indifferent to how the military components of the corresponding programme look."

Analysis, please: is Moscow indicating that the recently-toughened UN sanctions are not a restriction on Iran's energy sector or is Shmatko's statement just a bit of rhetorical "balancing" to avoid a complete detachment from Tehran while his President stands alongside the "West"?

1412 GMT: The Guardians of the Guardian Council. Back from travels to find that the Supreme Leader has reinstated Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, Ayatollah Gholam Reza Rezvani, and Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Modarresi Yazdi, three of the six clerics on the 12-member Guardian Council.

0914 GMT: We've posted an analysis by Mr Verde of the bigger significance yesterday's opinion piece on the opposition website Rah-e-Sabz: "The Story Beyond the Opposition, Enduring America, and US 'Neoconservatives'".

0910 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Kalemeh, the website linked to Mir Hossein Mousavi, claims that the gold market in Tehran Bazaar is still closed.

0635 GMT: On Guard! General Amir Ahmad-Reza Pourdastan, commander of Iran's land forces, has announced that large parts of southern Iran will become "armed territory".

However, the foreign threat is not the main concern of Hojatoleslam Ali Saidi, the Supreme Leader's representative to the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps. He has declared that the "smallest mistake of officials will be punished heavily".

0630 GMT: Economy Watch (Revolutionary Guard Edition). The Minister of Economy, speaking in the Parliament, has spoken about the privatisation of Iran Telecom. He said that a rival of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps was eliminated from the bidding after the demand of  "one of the securityforces organisations".

0625 GMT: Government Retreat on Subsidy Cuts? Mohammad Reza Farzin, the Deputy Minister of Economy, has said the subsidy cut plan could be postponed. The current intention is to start reductions in Mehr (September/October), but Farzin says this is "perhaps too early".

0620 GMT: The Universities Dispute. Rah-e-Sabz reports that the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has met former President Hashemi Rafsanjani to discuss the conflict over control of Islamic Azad University, but there has been no resolution.

0555 GMT: To Lose One Journalist is a Misfortune, To Lose Four Looks Like Carelessness. Peyke Iran claims that a cultural reporter for Fars News has fled to France. His departure follows those of Hossein Salmanzadeh of the photo section, photojournalist Javad Moghimi, and political journalist Farahmand Alipour.

0530 GMT: Many thanks to readers for providing a rolling service of news and analysis while I was busy in the International Summer School on Wednesday.

Catching Up with the News....

Amiri Not A Nuclear Scientist Shocker

Iranian state media is setting out the line on the curious case of scientist Shahram Amiri, who returned to Iran from the US yesterday, purportedly through his words on his 14 months outside the country. Press TV has him saying:

The US administration has connected my abduction to Iran's nuclear case to pursue certain goals and exert pressure on the Iranian government. While I was being interrogated by US intelligence agents, they urged me to announce that I carried a laptop containing important information and applied for asylum.

The statement links back to the Americans' claim in recent years that they have an Iranian laptop proving Iran's pursuit of a nuclear weapons, a claim disputed by many analysts. There are flourishes such as "Israel agents" at Amiri's interrogation, the "heaviest mental torture", and an offer of $10 million to appear on CNN and announce his defection.

Interestingly, Amiri is no longer a "nuclear scientist" in the article. He is an "academic".

Why the US would put so much effort into abducting a mere "scholar" is not made clear by Press TV.

And He Doesn't Get His $5 Million, Either

The US Government line, put out in The Washington Post, is a good-bye to Amiri with the sneer, "We're keeping your defection money."

Officials say Amiri was paid more than $5 million by the CIA before breaking off "significant cooperation" and "abruptly returning" to Iran because he missed his family:

Anything he got is now beyond his reach, thanks to the financial sanctions on Iran. He's gone, but his money's not. We have his information, and the Iranians have him.

Iran Special: The Green Movement, the Regime, and "the West" (Nabavi)

Journalist and satirist Ebrahim Nabavi writes for Rooz Online:

More than a year has passed since the beginning of the Green Movement. Today, I would like to tell you things about the Green Movement that you might be less aware of.

Firstly, the Green Movement is not a religious movement, but it cannot be called a secular movement either, yet it can be called a non-religious movement with religious leaders. This is one of the ways for the growth of democracy in the Islamic world. The Green Movement is occurring in a religious society, not because we are in love with religion, no, we are not at all fond of a religious society, but we live in reality and whoever tells you that Iran’s future will be a secular society, do not take their comment seriously for the next fifty years. Even after fifty years, only Henry Kissinger will be able to predict tomorrow.

Secondly, the Green Movement has a distinct leadership. Mir Hossein Mousavi is the leader of this Movement, but he and other leaders of the Movement such as [Mohammad] Khatami and Karroubi have never claimed to be the leaders of the Movement, because the leaders of the Movement have a completely reciprocal relationship with its supporters.

Fifty percent of content of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s thoughts, demands, language and words have changed in the past year, not because he lacks a structured thought, but because he has maintained his interaction and dialogue with the supporters and especially the mid-ranked leaders of the Movement.

Thirdly, the Green Movement is a peaceful. If in the past year, thousands of Iranians have been imprisoned, wounded, exiled, tortured and more than a hundred people have been killed on the streets, it is all because of the regime’s fear of the Movement’s expansion and its widespread use of violence against the people. This year on the 12th of June, the people had planned to take to the streets on the anniversary of the coup, but despite article 27 of the constitution, the government did not grant authorisation.

The Green Movement’s goal is not to bring a ten-thousand strong crowd to the street and thus bring about tens of casualties and hundreds of prisoners. When three million people take to the streets, even a great army is incapable of controlling them, but when five thousand people take to the streets, they can be controlled using five hundred people.

Fourthly: The regime is currently faced with many conflicts. After the anniversary of Ayatollah Khomeini’s death which resulted in a dispute between Khomeini’s grandson and Ahmadinejad, a dramatic loss has been occurring in the pro-government camp. A great number of parliament members will return towards the people and sizeable portion of diplomats will probably not return to Iran. Right now, the regime loses between two to five of the leader’s most important aides and on the other side, the Green Movement is able to find more cohesion and is transforming from a chaotic crowd, to a distinct organisation. For a month now, the atmosphere for activity within Iran has opened up and particularly in the cities; there is a chance for the Green Movement to spread the word, especially using graffiti on walls and distributing fliers. All of this is because of an intense dispute among the conservatives themselves. We pray for their disputes to continue.

Fifthly, I said all this to bring the discussion to the issue of media. In Iran, seven channels, tens of radio stations, hundreds of newspapers and thousands of websites working under the supervision of the government, the conservatives, the leader and Ahmadinejad, tell tens of lies every minute. In addition, thirty Persian speaking television stations based in Los Angeles obstruct the people’s thinking by repetitively broadcasting old movies.

On the other hand, the government attacks the internet via filtering and forming the Internet Cyber Army and prevents TV images and radio waves to be reached to the Iranian people through jamming, while independent newspapers have long been shut down. Our main concern is launching a channel for transferring the breath of freedom into the country. For a while now, the Americans have talking of creating a censorship-free internet environment in Iran: Mr [Senator John] McCain is trying very hard in this regard, each time he mentions this, a few more Iranian journalists are arrested, and of course, nothing important happens.

Sixthly, a great constraint for us in launching independent media outside the country is that we cannot receive funds from outside Iran. Using foreign money here is like releasing gazelle into a field with thousands of hunters, some of whom might use tanks to hunt the gazelle. Receiving financial aid from Europe or the United States is like firing a bullet to the head of our colleagues in Iran. Also, my bitter and personal experiences with BBC Persian, VOA, Radio Zamaaneh and Deutsche Welle show that all Persian-language media take into account considerations with respect to their governments.

At times, the damage brought about by a TV station such as the BBC is a thousand times more than its benefits. They have taken away two hundred of our best writers who had hundreds of thousands of readers and turned them into the employees of an organisation which for many years has been viewed with suspicion by those Iranians that believe that the English are responsible for all the evil that occurs in Iran. Besides, the constant intervention of the Europeans in media affairs that are run with European money causes the practical destruction of this media. One those examples are Radio Zamaneh, which has collapsed. After months of efforts, Euronews has still not reached any point and it seems that it has yet to find Persian translators for its employees.

Seventhly, unfortunately, because of using Iranian advisors from previous centuries, many western governments harm the current pro-democracy movement instead of helping it. Three or four years ago, we faced problems for transferring a thousand Euros from France to Belgium because we worked for an opposition website. At the same time, in Europe, millions of Euros of Iranian funds belonging to the regime and the Revolutionary Guards were being used for various purposes that went against legal treaties of the UN. For many years, we have explained that we are not terrorists and in fact oppose terrorism, but the bank’s representative had focused on the word “Iran” which caused us to remove “Iran” from the name of our company.

As we speak, thousands of dollars in Canada and the United States are given to individuals in the name of “helping Iranian journalists”. Nevertheless, not only do these individuals not do anything for the Freedom Movement in Iran, but they effectively create legal dossiers against journalists inside the country. Some right-wing newspapers in Iran are being fed by money provided by you.

Eighthly, the Iranian state uses three methods for preventing any political activity: censorship, causing a lack of trust and obstructing the formation of organisation. These are the three most important measures taken by the Intelligence Ministry. However, our great chance is the internet. In practice and especially under the right conditions, the internet makes up for our three information and intelligence limitations and works for us like an organisation; it eliminates censorship and paves the way for mutual trust.

But the danger of the internet and is our great problem is the penetration of intelligence elements who access our data and are become aware of our plans. This is easier when it come to social networks and more difficult with main inboxes and p websites. Some of the best weapons at the disposal of the Green Movement in Iran are the Balatarin website, Facebook, and Twitter. Despite the fact that the Balatarin website was also used by radical supporters of the government and the radical supporters of a military strike against Iran, it was a powerful source for quickly spreading information and news across the country. In reality, in the past year, the following websites, Balatarin, Facebook, Rooz Online, and Jaras [Rah-e-Sabz] have acted as news websites and have been able to make up for the lack of organisation and to break the atmosphere of censorship. When we took to the streets, we had already spoken our minds on Facebook.

Ninth, despite all the problems that we are facing right now, our work is being followed in Iran because of our use of converting media. Many of our television and internet messages are sent to those lacking access to the internet, via paper fliers and video CDs. Following Ahmadinejad’s 12 June coup, we tried to speak with the media that was close to the people’s ears and through such means; we are currently successful to a certain extent

Tenthly, it might be useful to note that the belief a great number of our friends in the west is based on the belief behind the Islamic Republic’s propaganda. Contrary to the Iranian regime’s propaganda, it is not true that all villagers support Ahmadinejad. Half of them are, and nevertheless, our rural areas account for less than twenty percent of the population of Iran.

Contrary to the prevalent notion, the Freedom Movement of Iran is not a Movement of middle class; it is a completely widespread Movement. Most of the Movement’s casualties and prisoners are from the poor and most of the Army’s commanders are millionaires and billionaires. Mostly because of the current regime in the country, most of the educated are considered as relatively poor by others and the rich class of the country belong to a class of rulers and military and religious figures. Contrary to the prevalent propaganda, the most important group that fight against the regime and struggle for the separation of religion and politics are the moderate religious and Islamo-democratic groups, while a great segment of the government’s supporters’ ties with the state is based on their dependence on government money and they have no religious tendencies.

Eleventh, based on what has been said, we would like to ask those Europeans who think they wish to help us, “Think more about yourselves.” If the bomb that threatens the livelihoods of us as Iranians explodes, it will place the whole planet under threat.

The main problem for Iranians today, is information. We must reflect accurate news inside Iran. In doing so, we might be able to give this news to the entire world too. We do not ask money from you, but try to provide the possibility for breaking free from tyranny. From you as Europeans, we would like to ask you to give us permission to have a television station. We would like you to respond to us a little sooner. We do not want you to have a troubled conscience by asking us “What do you require?” and then abandon us in a cloud of uncertainty. The main requirement for Freedom Movement in Iran is awareness and, specifically, a television channel for conveying the news accurately and completely.

You have experienced the bitter taste of fascism during the Second World War. You know what danger is. We are in the same position as you. Within Iran, the sphere of life is more lively, everything is more dynamic and millions of people want to get rid of the Satan. The mere getting rid of the Satan will suffice, and then, they themselves will choose if they want to enter hell or heaven.