The Latest from Iran (29 July): 22% Support?

1935 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Activist Hoda Saber, who was mysteriously taken by unknown persons on Saturday, has called his family from Evin Prison. The reason for arrest is unknown.

International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran updates on the transfer of 15 political prisoners, including student activist Abdollah Momeni and journalist Bahman Ahmadi Amoui, to solitary confinement in Evin Prison. (We have previously reported that 10 detainees were transferred.) The 15 are protesting the “unsuitable treatment of prisoners and their families by prison authorities and Ward 350 officers on visitation days; lack of health and welfare facilities; as well as suspension of visitation privileges of several prisoners.”

NEW Iran Analysis: Twisting & Turning to Prove the Leader is Supreme (Verde)
NEW Iran: How “Ahmadinejad v. Paul the Octopus” Became a Global Showdown
Iran Analysis: The Hardliners Take on Ahmadinejad
Latest Iran Video: Ahmadinejad on Afghanistan, Sanctions, & the US (26 July)
The Latest from Iran (28 July): A Presidential Target?

1730 GMT: Sporting Moment. Kodoom reports on triumph turned into trouble....

Hossein Askari, riding for the Tabriz Petrochemical Cycling Team, won the Tour of Qinghai Lake in China.  However, according to Ali Zangiabadi, the director of the Iranian Cycling Federation, Askari will face disciplinary action in Iran after he popped the cork from a champagne bottle in his victory celebration.



1720 GMT: Academic Corner. The Educational Testing Service has announced that it is resuming registrations in Iran for TOEFL (Teaching of English as a Foreign Language) and GRE (Graduate Record Examination) tests.

The examinations, which are vital for many Iranian students who wish to study abroad, were suspended two weeks ago after tighter U.N. Security Council restrictions on financial transactions involving Iran led to ETS's banking arrangements being discontinued. Students wishing to take the tests may now register through Iran's National Organization of Educational Testing or mayn use credit/debit cards issued by banks that are not prohibited under UN or US sanctions.

1530 GMT: Solving the Oil Squeeze? Three Russian state-controlled oil companies may begin delivering gasoline to Iran in a month, the head of the Iran Commission of the Moscow Chamber of Commerce & Industry has said. Talks are being held on a “working level” and the first delivery may take place in late August or September.

1500 GMT: Karroubi Answers. Mehdi Karroubi has offered a response to Ayatollah Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council (see separate entry): "If I am an intriguer, then you are in league with those who stole the people's votes....What you called sedition was an election which was as usual engineered by you and think tanks led by you or others like you at the Ministry of Interior and Guardian Council."

1420 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Iranian activists have posted an updated letter, addressed to the Supreme Leader, requesting commutation of the death sentences of Jafar Kazemi (see 1110 GMT) and Mohammad Ali Haj Aghaei, both arrested during post-election protests and accused of "mohareb" (war against God).

Radio Zamaneh has now posted an English text of the news of Kazemi's sentence.

1410 GMT: Oil Squeeze. Reports indicate that Iran shipped around 9 million barrels of crude oil to China in June, a fall of 13.1 million barrels from last year.

1400 GMT: Water Watch. The Los Angeles Times updates on the reports that water in parts of Tehran are contaminated with high levels of toxic nitrate.

The article reports that the Ministry of Power has handed out free bottles of water to an underprivileged suburb south of the city. The Water and Sewage Waste Organization has recently dug new wells to expand the water supply. However, Minister of Health Marziyeh Vahid Dastjerdi announced that the amount of nitrate found in the drinking water in parts of Tehran exceeded the appropriate level, posing a serious threat to city-dwellers’ health.

1310 GMT: Mousavi Watch (1988 Edition). An EA correspondent checks in:

"The big news today is Enqelab Eslami, the Paris newspaper of former President Abulhassan Bani-Sadr, is allegedly re-leaking the full contents of the letter that Mousavi wrote to Ayatollah Khamenei in 1988 explaining his sudden resignation as Prime Minister. (The resignation was refused by Khomeini, who forced Mousavi to stay on.)

The contents, which I am trying to verify, are amusing: Mousavi decries his total lack of control or even information over events surrounding Iranian foreign policy and activities. For example, he states that he received word through the press that Iranian pilgrims have been apprehended in Jeddah carrying firearms or that the Speaker or Parliament, Hashemi Rafsanjani, exchanged letters with the Prime Minister of Japan and Mousavi only got wind of it when both sides finished the exchange.

Essentially this is a strong accusation against the un-constitutional accumulation of powers by Khamenei. Enqelab Eslami first leaked the letter in 1988, prior to Khomeini's death. It now republishes iafter Mousavi's threat to reveal all, (see the letter posted on EA).

Now the ball's firmly in Mousavi's own court: he either needs to deny the veracity of the claims or confirm the letter...."

1140 GMT: Mousavi Watch. Kalemeh has a short report of Mir Hossein Mousavi's meeting this morning with members of the Assembly of Teachers and Researchers of Qom.

1110 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An Iranian activist reports that he death sentence of political prisoner Jafar Kazemi has been upheld by an appellate court.

Kazemi, arrested last September during protests, was convicted of "mohareb" (war against God) for connections with Mujahedin-e-Khalq, a charge that he has denied. He was also in prison for nine yers during the 1980s.

Reporters Without Borders has condemned the "abuse" of detained journalist Abdolreza Tajik and other political prisoners, “It is time for United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Navanethem Pillay to press the Iranian authorities to accept a visit from the UN special rapporteur on torture, so that he can investigate the allegations of mistreatment in Iranian prisons.”

This week the Tajik family wrote Iran’s head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, that the journalist said during a prison the privisit that he had been “dishonoured” and that he demanded to see his lawyer, Mohammad Sharif, and Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi.

1005 GMT: Oil Squeeze. The New York Times summarises Iran's announcement that it will increase domestic gasoline production by converting two petrochemical plants so they can produce gasoline by processing benzene.

Minister of Oil Masoud Mirkazemi's all-is-well alert was that Iran would become a net exporter of gasoline by 2015. Other scientists say, however, that gasoline from benzene will burn poorly with more impurities than regular gasoline, damaging engines.

0955 GMT: Security Escalation. Aftab News reports that 7000 bases for Basij militia are to be constructed, including 100 in Zanjan Province.

0930 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Add Australia to the list of countries ramping up restrictions on Tehran. Following the UN, US, and European Union measures, Canberra has tightened restrictions on Iranian oil and gas groups and companies for the first time and has banned trade of weapons and related material, including anything that could be used for development of nuclear, missile, chemical or biological capability.

0755 GMT: We have posted an analysis by Mr Verde, considering the significance of a speech by Ayatollah Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, "Twisting & Turning to Prove the Leader is Supreme".

0600 GMT: While we catch up with "other" news, we open today with a feature, "How 'Ahmadinejad v. Paul the Octopus' Became a Global Showdown".

The President may also want to take note of a recent poll conducted by the Iranian Student Polling Agency in which 56 percent of participants believe his popularity has declined over the past year while only 22 percent believe it has increased.

As readers know, we are cautious about any poll carried out inside Iran, but the ISPA, which surveyed 1172 people is is linked to Jahad Daneshgahi, an academic body which in turn is overseen by the Supreme Council for Cultural Revolution, headed by President Ahmadinejad.

Two-thirds of the respondents in the poll believe that dissatisfaction with the government remains widespread, if largely covert. Only 18% think that the government was able to control post-election protests.

Perhaps the most striking finding, however, is this: 80% said that economic issues such as inflation, lack of affordable housing, and unemployment are their main priorities. Lack of political and social freedoms was named by only 7%, weakening Islamic values concerned 6%, and international threats such as military attacks or economic sanctions was cited by 4% percent.

Comments

[Baz]

Hmm - re those statistics in the last paragraph. Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs seems to be coming to the fore. Bozorg asked in another thread -"where are the people??" Perhaps his answer lies here. Probably most people don't really care too much about politics as long as they have food and a secure roof over their head. It is only after they have this that they then start to think about such "luxuries" as personal freedoms and rights.

Barry

[dchoubak]

...Which brings us to another conspiracy theory. Do you think that they are purposefully not providing for the residents in order to distract from the bigger existential issues that exist. ie Better the people suffer from shitty lives than for us to suffer their wrath.

[Baz]

Nah!! - whenever trying to decide whether something is a conspiracy or a cockup - always go for the cockup. This surely is just incompetence - no conspiracy.

Barry

[Catherine]

Now in English:
A Report from Rajai Shahr Prison For Anyone Who is Willing to Listen
In a moving letter, Saeed Masouri incarcerated since 2000, describes the harrowing conditions at Rajai Shahr prison.
http://www.rhairan.us/en/?p=6017" rel="nofollow">http://www.rhairan.us/en/?p=6017

[Catherine]

Hostage to Events
In an exclusive interview with Barbara Slavin, the State Department's leading Iran expert John Limbert discusses his resignation and why the Islamic Republic and the United States keep on talking past each other.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/07/27/hostage_to_events" rel="nofollow">http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/07/2...

[Catherine]

Rooz Online reports on the new round of oppression signaled by he disappearance of civil and political activist Hoda Saber, attorney Mohammad Mostafaei and the arrest of 2 of Mostafaei's family members:
http://www.roozonline.com/english/news/newsitem/article/2010/july/28//saharkhizs-letter-activists-disappearance.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.roozonline.com/english/news/newsitem...

[Catherine]

Reporters Without Borders has issued a statement condemning the abuse of Abdolreza Tajik, the detained Iranian journalist, in Iran’s Evin prison and urged international action against the violations of detainee rights in Iran.
http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/07/press-rights-group-condem.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/07/press-rig...

[ScottLucas11]

Looks like an Arabist but no indication that he has Persian or indeed any sustained involvement in US-Iran matters.....

S.

[ScottLucas11]

Hmm, have a look at this testimony from 2003 with nuggets like "In addition to our long-standing concerns about Iranian involvement in terror, the presence of senior al-Qaeda members in Iran is worrisome."

http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/archives/108/87998.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/archives/108/87...

S.

[Catherine]

The International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) has expressed its "deep concern regarding the ongoing repression and intimidation against members of the Baha’i religious minority," and has called upon international intervention in the case of Ms Rozita Vaseghi, whose situation is considered to be very serious.
http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/jul/29/2196" rel="nofollow">http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/jul/2...

[Catherine]

The names of sixteen political prisoners on hunger strike in Evin priosn have been released. The prisoners’ hunger strike is in response to their transfer from Evin prison’s ward 350 to solitary confinements in ward 240.
http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/jul/29/2195" rel="nofollow">http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/jul/2...

[WitteKr]

Sanctions Watch: Beijing buying less crude from Iran... http://www.upi.com/Science_News/Resource-Wars/2010/07/29/Beijing-buying-less-crude-from-Iran/UPI-50181280410544/" rel="nofollow">http://www.upi.com/Science_News/Resource-Wars/2...
"There is a lot of talk about whether this is a political decision by China or whether it's simply a pricing matter," he was quoted by the Emirati newspaper The National as saying. "We don't have a definitive conclusion on that yet."
Iran in June shipped around 9 million barrels of crude oil to China, making China the third-largest customer for Iran. That level, however, is down 13.1 million barrels compared with the same time last year, The National adds.
Afshin Molavi (an expert on Iran at Washington think tank New America Foundation) added, however, that Beijing is looking elsewhere for crude as the Asian economy gains steam. This, he said, suggests Iran needs China as a customer more than China needs Iranian crude.

[Verde_e]

Re. 0755 GMT: Jannati speech

Karroubi responses to Jannati’s “US’s $1 billion down payment to opposition leaders and the promise to pay an additional $50 billion once the regime is overthrown”. In a letter, Karroubi lays into Jannati:
http://www.sahamnews.org/?p=5458" rel="nofollow">http://www.sahamnews.org/?p=5458

Karroubi accuses him of lying, cheating and being responsible for the post election crisis. Karrounbi says Jannati cannot even produce a remotely believable lie.

A very strong worded attack.

[perry1949]

Just a thought but could all this talk of tainted water in Tehran have anything to do with AN trying to get people to move out of Tehran?

[Bozorg]

Baz,

Excellent observation. Once people finally realize the poor economy is the product of a poor political system, then they might start agitating more.

[Hossein]

The IRI is a corrupt and bankrupt government. These are the last days.

[WitteKr]

Sanctions Watch II: The United States announced Thursday that top officials will fan out starting next week to China, the United Arab Emirates and other key countries in support of tighter sanctions against Iran.http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100729/wl_asia_afp/irannuclearpoliticsussanctionschina_20100729200403
"The Chinese will argue that they have important security needs" related to getting energy for their booming economy, said Einhorn. "In our view they are overachieving in terms of their energy security needs. We think they have to rebalance their priorities," said Einhorn, who underlined that China "is going to be the focus of very high-level attention over the next weeks and months" on the issue of Iran.

[WitteKr]

Back to Engagement? Patrick Berry in Democracy Arsenal: "Just when you thought diplomacy with Iran was on life-support, the last 24 hours have seen potentially game-altering developments regarding international negotiations over its nuclear program." (...)
"Today, the political climate in the U.S. is more favorable to negotiations. Though the right has not let up in the slightest, pushing hard for a more militaristic posture toward Iran, the Obama administration can now credibly say to a domestic audience that its strategy of balancing pressure and inducements has compelled Iran to negotiate. Following the passage of a new Security Council resolution, the engagement track is more politically defensible than it was before."
http://www.democracyarsenal.org/2010/07/back-to-engagement.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.democracyarsenal.org/2010/07/back-to...

[Cyrus S]

the majority ( 80% )are concerned about the economical hardship cased by the IRGC take over of Iran's economy as well as anti-Iranian unqualified Islamic republic leadership more than anything else. What's amazing, only 4% are concerned about a nuclear strike, growing up in Iran I remember hearing that all the time from the people wishing the west remove the Islamic republic even if by force and military action. Many Iranians see that the only way to completely remove the regime, but are against bombing Iran without the intention of regime change. Bombing Iran and destroying the civilian infrastructure for "nuclear containment only" would be the biggest mistake because if the west doesn't help the Iranian people, it'll lose its only natural allies in the middle east
If the Iranian regime forces the west into military action, it better be done for the goal of liberation and not bombing and destroying the country to remove the nuclear threat.
I still think that if the west show full support to the Iranian people, they will remove the Islamic Republic for us and there will be no need for a military action