The Latest from Iran (22 July): Confusing Regime

2125 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert. Iran's police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam has declared that there is no smuggling of gas and oil across Iran's borders.

Then again, maybe all is not well: despite there being no smuggling, Ahmadi-Moghaddam has said the budget for border defence is inadequate.

2115 GMT: Religious Difficulties. Mohammad Nasser Saghaie Biriya, the President's religious advisor has resigned, allegedly because of divisions over the enforcement of hijab.

Saghaie Biriya is a disciple of Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, who has been seen as Ahmadinejad's religious mentor.

NEW Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader & the Disappearing Fatwa (Verde)
Iran Media Follow-Up: War, War, War. Blah, Blah, Blah. No Facts. More War. Blah.
Iran Special: Khamenei’s “I Am the Rule of the Prophet” Fatwa — Strength or Weakness? (Verd
The Latest from Iran (21 July): Khamenei Rattled?

2100 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Detained student activist Arsalan Abadi has been sentenced to six years in prison by an appellate court. Abadi, arrested during the Ashura protests on 27 December, had originally been given a nine-year term.

2055 GMT: Regime v. Rafsanjani. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami has tried to put former President Hashemi Rafsanjani in his place, saying that his position is still the same as it was on 19 June last year, when the Supreme Leader tried to close off debate over the result of the Presidential election. Khatami said Rafsanjani's s future depends on Ayatollah Khamenei's decisions and the elections for the head of Expediency Council, the position Rafsanjani currently holds.

1945 GMT: Prohibiting Remembrance. Back from a break to catch up with this news from Wednesday....

The National Front of Iran has announced that security forces pressured the organisation into cancelling its public events. The head of the National Front was that any gathering in 7th Tir Square and boarding the bus to travel to Baboyeh Cemetery is prohibited.

On 21 July 1953, demonstrators protested the dismissal of the nationalist Prime Minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh, and were killed inby security forces of the Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The victims were laid to rest in Baboyeh.

1310 GMT: Scattering the Students. Rah-e-Sabz reports that Tehran University's dormitories will be evacuated this summer, with students distributed across the city.

1245 GMT: Economy Watch. Reformist MP Mohammad Reza Khabbaz has declared that excessive imports will break the back of domestic production.

1000 GMT: (Refuting the) Rumour of the Day. MP Qodratollah Alikhani identifying the mis-information put out by Javan, the newspaper linked to the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, dismisses its latest tale that Green leaders met in a hotel sauna.

0954 GMT: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Film Expert. The Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance has announced that a High Council for Cinema, led by the President, has been established.

An EA correspondent ponders, "What would be the titles of the films considered by this Council?"

0945 GMT: Education Corner. The licence of the Islamic Association at the University of Kashan has been revoked by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Education is reportedly sending religious missonaries to 3000 girls' schools in Tehran.
0855 GMT: Sanctions. MP Mohsen Nariman has challenged the Government's official line: "Claiming that sanctions have no effects is political propaganda."

0810 GMT: Staying on Point. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani is continuing to ensure that his credentials on foreign policy are not in question, saying on Wednesday that the Iran-Brazil-Turkey declaration on a uranium swap is the only solution to the nuclear issue and adding that sanctions are sure to result in failure.
0805 GMT: Getting the Right Clerics in Place. According to Rooz Online, Seyed Reza Taghavi, the head of policy for Friday Prayers, has said 60 Friday Prayer clerics will be "retired" this summer.

0705 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Azam Visemeh after her release from detention yesterday:



0700 GMT: In the Bazaar. Nejat Bahrami, writing for insideIRAN, analyses, "Bazaari Criticism of Ahmadinejad Bursts into the Open":

Another factor that can bring the bazaar and the opposition closer to each other is the role of the government. Mistakes made by the government and their impact should never be underestimated. Continuation of failed economic policies by the Ahmadinejad administration and further pressure on Iran by the international community can further intensify the economic crisis in Iran and alienate some parts of this important, influential group of merchants.

0655 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Two overviews of interest this morning....

Shayan Ghajar writes in insideIRAN, "Sanctions Open Iran to Russian, Chinese Firms", while Ardalan Sayami's analysis in Rooz Online is that "Sanctions Turn the Government to the Private Sector".

0635 GMT: A Clue on the Fatwa? Personally, I believe that the first audience for the Supreme Leader's supposed fatwa on Tuesday was the senior clerics of Qom, some of whom have been unsettled throughout the post-election crisis and many of whom were roused to anger by the June attacks on Seyed Hassan Khomeini and on the houses of Grand Ayatollah Sane'i and the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. (Using this line of reasoning, a possible reason for the "disappearance" of the fatwa is that it was not received well by those clerics.)

Support for this interpretation comes in Rah-e-Sabz, which posts a provocative account of Ayatollah Khamenei's recent journey to Qom and his meetings with the clerics.

0605 GMT: Perhaps the most spirited response to our coverage since Tuesday of the Supreme Leader's alleged fatwa --- "I am the Rule of the Prophet" --- has come from a reader who say, "Nothing new, he has simply reiterated the meaning of the velayat-e-faqih [clerical supremacy] as originally articulated by the late Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini....It is not always good to murky the water as you like doing here."

With respect, I beg to differ. While the content of Ayatollah Khameini's declaration has its precendents, it has not taken on the form of a fatwa, at least not under this Supreme Leader. And, as always, the distinction lays in timing, context, and developments: Why now? To what end? And what has happened to the fatwa, which has "disappeared" from many Iranian state outlets?

Mr Verde takes another look in an analysis.

Meanwhile....

Mousavi's Latest

Almost lost in the confusion over the Supreme Leader's statement --- did he or didn't he? --- was Mir Hossein Mousavi's intervention in a meeting with professors.

Mousavi, unwittingly intersecting with the presentation of and uncertainty over Khamenei's words, condemned “fabrication” and “distortion” of truth by the Government and stressed that “systematic lies” are the signs of the “decline” of a system. He said the media of the Green Movement should make every effort to “unravel” these lies and counter the “ominous phenomenon": “We must provide our people with a truthful analysis of every situation that the government represents through lies; even though our possibilities are not as much as the authoritarian government.”

Mousavi also spoke about the recent bombings in southeastern Iran, declaring that the problems of the ethnic groups in the border regions must be a priority and maintaining that terrorism can only be confronted through “development coupled with justice".

Power Crisis

Tabnak reports that electricity prices for farmers will increase 10-fold.

The Latest from Iran (20 July): Khamenei "I am the Rule of the Prophet"

2135 GMT: Break Time. OK, taking a breather. But remember, we are back tomorrow morning with a very special analysis of the significance of the Supreme Leader's political and religious move with the issuance of his fatwa today.

2130 GMT: The Energy Squeeze. Najmeh Bozorgmehr of The Financial Times posts a useful summary of the problems for Tehran from foreign disinvestment from the energy sector, "Iran struggles over its gas field riches".

NEW Iran & Sanctions: “All Major Pakistani Banks Refuse Transactions” (Shah)
NEW Iran Follow-Up: Dealing with the Media’s “War, War, War” Drumbeat
NEW Iran Document: Isa Saharkhiz in Court “Should the Supreme Leader Be Dismissed?” (18 July)
Iran’s Made-Up Stories: Fars News Busted by “Zionist” Journalist Ghazi
Iran Analysis: Voices Raised — Removing the Supreme Leader (Verde)
The Latest from Iran (19 July): Criticisms and the Leader

2120 GMT: The Bazaar Plot. Tehran Bureau has published the English translation of the attack by Hossein Shariatmadari of Keyhan against those striking at the Tehran Bazaar:

Taxes are the right of the people and the government does not have the right to be remiss taking action against people who threaten to close the bazaar through a handful of hired mercenaries and who blackmail and spread ambiguities. In the last few days the telephones at Kayhan have not stopped ringing and many religious and committed bazaaris, meaning almost all of them, have been complaining about the failure of officials to take action against the plot of a handful of prosperous capitalists who feel no pain, and especially in the present sensitive circumstances.

2110 GMT: Sanctions Watch. An EU correspondent tips us off that President Ahmadinejad recently sent Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Ahani to Germany to lobby against sanctions.

2105 GMT: Shake-Up. An earthquake of magnitude 5.8 has been reported in southern Iran. There are no reported casualties.

So far, there is also no news of whether there were women's breasts in the area.

2100 GMT: Refugee Issues. A new project, Zanboor (Bee), has been launched to assist Iranian refugees in Turkey.

2055 GMT: Negotiations? Iranian state media is still hammering away at the propaganda line that it "rejected" an overture by the US, presumably through the alleged request of Senator John Kerry to visit Tehran (see 0615 GMT), for discussions.

Radio Farda reports, however, that the Afghanistan summit in Kabul provided the opportunity for Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki to chat with European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton.

2045 GMT: Catching Up with Khamenei. Back from a family break to check on our headline story....

In a curious development, it appears that the Supreme Leader's dramatic "I am the Rule of the Prophet" fatwa has disappeared from much of Iranian state media. The reformist Parleman News, which we cited initially (see 1400 GMT), is still carrying the declaration, as is the Supreme Leader's new "Facebook Lite" page.

We are working on a special analysis for tomorrow.

1630 GMT: Back to the Bazaar Rumours (see 1440 GMT). Iran Focus rounds up the chatter: Sabz-e Meidan (vegetable wholesale market), shoemakers, and jewellers at Tehran Bazaar on strike with only a handful of shops open yesterday. Textile and Fabric Bazaar half closed, and few people were shopping.

Many petrol stations in Tehran were closed on Monday, with long queues in Tarasht, Sattar Khan, Behboudi and Baharestan Streets. In some cases, drivers had to wait in line for many hours.

And Rooz Online has put out an intriguing round-up of developments, including the entry of Saeed Mortazavi --- former Tehran Prosecutor General and "anti-smuggling" aide to the President --- into the Bazaar.

We are treating as unconfirmed at this point.

1453 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Saeed Torabian, member of the Tehran Bus Workers Union, has been freed on heavy bail after pressure from unionists within and outside Iran.

1444 GMT: Picture of Day. Tahavole Sabz has posted a photograph, reprinted by the Los Angeles Times, of Parvin Fahimi, the mother of Sohrab Arabi, killed by pro-government militiamen on 15 June 2009, with former detainees of Kahrizak Prison:



1440 GMT: Bazaar Rumours. And, just to make life even busier, we are getting persistent reports that --- despite claims of a resolution with an agreed 15% tax increase --- there are still closures in the Tehran Bazaar.

1435 GMT: After the Bombings. Rah-e-Sabz is reporting that people did not let the Governor and other top officials make speeches during the funerals in Zahedan for victims of last Thursday's suicide bombings.

1413 GMT: Economy Watch. Tehran MP Alireza Mahjoub has reportedly asked, "How can we manage factories with a dictatorship in place?"

1409 GMT: The Revolution Guards' Orders. It is a proving to be a day of revelations: after the Supreme Leader's fatwa comes the publication of alleged Islamic Revolution Guards Corps intelligence orders concerning the opposition.

1400 GMT: Supreme Leader "I Am the Rule of the Prophet". Ayatollah Khamenei has issued the following fatwa, published by all major Iranian media outlets:

Question: Please explain about “obedience of velayat-e-faqih”. In other words, how should we act so that we know we have belief in and have full obedience to the successor of the hidden Imam?

Answer: “Velayat-e faghih” means the rule of cleric who has the right requirements in the age of absence [of the 12th Shia Imam]. It is a branch of the rule of the saints [Shia Imams] and the same as the rule of the Prophet. As long as you obey the commands of the ruler of the Muslims [the Supreme Leader], it shows that you have full obedience to that.

1330 GMT: Don't Drink the Water. Minister of Health Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi has declared that Tehran's drinking water should not be consumed by pregnant women and babies, adding that if the Minister of Energy says differently, he is responsible for the consequences.

1325 GMT: Academic Corner. The sudden "retirements" of professors are continuing: Rah-e-Sabz reports that 39 from Tehran, Shahid Beheshti and Khajeh Nasir universities have been moved out of their posts. The website comments that this is the "5th phase" of the retirement project, saying that 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi has given the order to "open fire".

1230 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Communications student Abbas Ahmadlou has begun serving a one-year prison sentence in Arak on charges of insulting the Supreme Leader and causing unease among public opinion.

HRANA reports that writer and translator Hojatollah Nikou'i has been arrested.

1210 GMT: Punishing the mourners. Students of Elm-o-Sanat University who attended the memorial for Kianoush Asa, slain last year in the post-election conflict, have received notices of suspension.

1208 GMT: Democracy and Security. Former President Mohammad Khatami has condemned the Zahedan bombings and said democracy is "the least expensive and most useful way to rule".

1202 GMT: Mohammad Shahryari and Abbas Ali Noura, two of the three MPs who had said they would resign after last Thursday's bombing in Sistan and Baluchistan Province, have announced they will remain in the Majlis after advice from the Supreme Leader. They said, however, that if they do not see Government action for security, they will call the Foreign Minister and Minister of Interior to account in Parliament.

1157 GMT: Economic Front. MP Hossein Eslami has claimed that 70% of Iran's imports are affected by corruption. Eslami said Iran, rather than having a massive imbalance of imports, should be exporting far more goods than it takes in. He added that workers have no labour security, which is a major reason for divorces.

1155 GMT: The Zahedan Bombing. Two more victims of last Thursday's double suicide bombing in southeastern Iran have died, bringing the toll to 29.

1145 GMT: When Internet Censorship Starts to Bite. Perhaps when even institutions inside Iran start disseminating anti-filtering software?

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reports that Tabnak, affiliated Secretary of Expediency Council and 2009 Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, has posted a link to a proxy server (although that link is now "broken" when we tried to access it).

In April a pro-Ahmadinejad website had complained about the "filtering" of other sites.

1140 GMT: Parliament v. President. A pointed attack from MP Ali Motahari: the Majlis should stand firmly against "khodkamegi" (obstinacy/dictatorship) of the Government. Motahari even turned on fellow legislators, saying some caused the Government's insubordination and tendency to flout laws.

1050 GMT: Sanctions Watch. We've posted a separate entry on what appears to be a significant development with the restriction of Pakistani business with Iran.

The European Union is reportedly considering new sanctions, including bans on investment in the oil and gas sector and restrictions on shipping and finance. The draft of the measures names 41 Iranian people, 57 companies or other entities, 15 additional companies thought to be controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and three under the control of the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines.

Senior European diplomats will discuss the proposed sanctions on Thursday.

0820 GMT: "I'm Sorry" on a Blog Gets a Travel Ban. Adeleh Ziaei has received a ban on travel for posting “I’m Sorry” on the blog of her husband Arya Aramnejad, an artist, singer, and composer.

Aramnejad was arrested in March, and Ziaei, wrote, “I’m sorry to say that Arya was wrong to think that in his beloved country, terms such as Law, Freedom, oh! Freedom! Dignity and Justice mean anything besides merely seductive words; he was wrong that he didn’t know this is Iran, a place where anything may take place and whoever has the power can accomplish whatever he wants!”

Aramanejad has been held in solitary confinement for 50 days. His trial was on 6 July but he could not present a defense since he had no access to his judicial file.

0755 GMT: We've posted a follow-up to last Friday's dissection of war talk posing as reporting and analysis, "Dealing with the Media’s 'War, War, War' Drumbeat".

0705 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Students Iman Sedighi, Mohsen Barzgar, and Hossein Nataj were released from Mati Kola Prison in Babol on Sunday after serving half of their sentences.

0615 GMT: We begin this morning with a translation of Sunday's prepared statement by journalist Isa Saharkhiz for his appearance in Revolutionary Court: "Should the Supreme Leader Be Dismissed?"

Meanwhile, this rather silly diversion....

On Sunday, we noted the curious claim of Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of Parliament's National Security Commission, that "the US Congress has informed the Swiss envoy that it is ready to hold negotiations with Iran". We requested, "Mr Boroujerdi, please do get in touch with us and let us know which US Congressmen have been talking to you of this hope for discussions — because we haven’t seen any sign of this back-channel being established."

While I don't think Mr Boroujerdi is a regular EA reader, we got an answer yesterday via the Islamic Republic News Agency: "Boroujerdi said that Iran turned down a request made by U.S. Senator John Kerry to pay a visit to Tehran because the US Democrats proved inconsistent in word and action."

Hmm.... While Kerry is a former Presidential candidate and the head of the Senate's Foreign Relations Committee, I'm not sure he is "the US Congress". At the same time, he has pursued initiatives either on behalf of the Administration (a trip to Afghanistan) or as the point man for US diplomacy (a visit to Syria before the US re-established an Embassy in Damascus).

If Kerry did sound out the Iranians about shaking hands in Tehran, it is either a risky individual initiative or a fumbling step for "engagement", given Tehran's exposure of the approach.