The Latest from Iran (20 July): Khamenei "I am the Rule of the Prophet"

2135 GMT: Break Time. OK, taking a breather. But remember, we are back tomorrow morning with a very special analysis of the significance of the Supreme Leader's political and religious move with the issuance of his fatwa today.

2130 GMT: The Energy Squeeze. Najmeh Bozorgmehr of The Financial Times posts a useful summary of the problems for Tehran from foreign disinvestment from the energy sector, "Iran struggles over its gas field riches".

NEW Iran & Sanctions: “All Major Pakistani Banks Refuse Transactions” (Shah)
NEW Iran Follow-Up: Dealing with the Media’s “War, War, War” Drumbeat
NEW Iran Document: Isa Saharkhiz in Court “Should the Supreme Leader Be Dismissed?” (18 July)
Iran’s Made-Up Stories: Fars News Busted by “Zionist” Journalist Ghazi
Iran Analysis: Voices Raised — Removing the Supreme Leader (Verde)
The Latest from Iran (19 July): Criticisms and the Leader

2120 GMT: The Bazaar Plot. Tehran Bureau has published the English translation of the attack by Hossein Shariatmadari of Keyhan against those striking at the Tehran Bazaar:

Taxes are the right of the people and the government does not have the right to be remiss taking action against people who threaten to close the bazaar through a handful of hired mercenaries and who blackmail and spread ambiguities. In the last few days the telephones at Kayhan have not stopped ringing and many religious and committed bazaaris, meaning almost all of them, have been complaining about the failure of officials to take action against the plot of a handful of prosperous capitalists who feel no pain, and especially in the present sensitive circumstances.

2110 GMT: Sanctions Watch. An EU correspondent tips us off that President Ahmadinejad recently sent Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Ahani to Germany to lobby against sanctions.

2105 GMT: Shake-Up. An earthquake of magnitude 5.8 has been reported in southern Iran. There are no reported casualties.

So far, there is also no news of whether there were women's breasts in the area.

2100 GMT: Refugee Issues. A new project, Zanboor (Bee), has been launched to assist Iranian refugees in Turkey.

2055 GMT: Negotiations? Iranian state media is still hammering away at the propaganda line that it "rejected" an overture by the US, presumably through the alleged request of Senator John Kerry to visit Tehran (see 0615 GMT), for discussions.

Radio Farda reports, however, that the Afghanistan summit in Kabul provided the opportunity for Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki to chat with European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton.

2045 GMT: Catching Up with Khamenei. Back from a family break to check on our headline story....

In a curious development, it appears that the Supreme Leader's dramatic "I am the Rule of the Prophet" fatwa has disappeared from much of Iranian state media. The reformist Parleman News, which we cited initially (see 1400 GMT), is still carrying the declaration, as is the Supreme Leader's new "Facebook Lite" page.

We are working on a special analysis for tomorrow.

1630 GMT: Back to the Bazaar Rumours (see 1440 GMT). Iran Focus rounds up the chatter: Sabz-e Meidan (vegetable wholesale market), shoemakers, and jewellers at Tehran Bazaar on strike with only a handful of shops open yesterday. Textile and Fabric Bazaar half closed, and few people were shopping.

Many petrol stations in Tehran were closed on Monday, with long queues in Tarasht, Sattar Khan, Behboudi and Baharestan Streets. In some cases, drivers had to wait in line for many hours.

And Rooz Online has put out an intriguing round-up of developments, including the entry of Saeed Mortazavi --- former Tehran Prosecutor General and "anti-smuggling" aide to the President --- into the Bazaar.

We are treating as unconfirmed at this point.

1453 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Saeed Torabian, member of the Tehran Bus Workers Union, has been freed on heavy bail after pressure from unionists within and outside Iran.

1444 GMT: Picture of Day. Tahavole Sabz has posted a photograph, reprinted by the Los Angeles Times, of Parvin Fahimi, the mother of Sohrab Arabi, killed by pro-government militiamen on 15 June 2009, with former detainees of Kahrizak Prison:



1440 GMT: Bazaar Rumours. And, just to make life even busier, we are getting persistent reports that --- despite claims of a resolution with an agreed 15% tax increase --- there are still closures in the Tehran Bazaar.

1435 GMT: After the Bombings. Rah-e-Sabz is reporting that people did not let the Governor and other top officials make speeches during the funerals in Zahedan for victims of last Thursday's suicide bombings.

1413 GMT: Economy Watch. Tehran MP Alireza Mahjoub has reportedly asked, "How can we manage factories with a dictatorship in place?"

1409 GMT: The Revolution Guards' Orders. It is a proving to be a day of revelations: after the Supreme Leader's fatwa comes the publication of alleged Islamic Revolution Guards Corps intelligence orders concerning the opposition.

1400 GMT: Supreme Leader "I Am the Rule of the Prophet". Ayatollah Khamenei has issued the following fatwa, published by all major Iranian media outlets:

Question: Please explain about “obedience of velayat-e-faqih”. In other words, how should we act so that we know we have belief in and have full obedience to the successor of the hidden Imam?

Answer: “Velayat-e faghih” means the rule of cleric who has the right requirements in the age of absence [of the 12th Shia Imam]. It is a branch of the rule of the saints [Shia Imams] and the same as the rule of the Prophet. As long as you obey the commands of the ruler of the Muslims [the Supreme Leader], it shows that you have full obedience to that.

1330 GMT: Don't Drink the Water. Minister of Health Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi has declared that Tehran's drinking water should not be consumed by pregnant women and babies, adding that if the Minister of Energy says differently, he is responsible for the consequences.

1325 GMT: Academic Corner. The sudden "retirements" of professors are continuing: Rah-e-Sabz reports that 39 from Tehran, Shahid Beheshti and Khajeh Nasir universities have been moved out of their posts. The website comments that this is the "5th phase" of the retirement project, saying that 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi has given the order to "open fire".

1230 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Communications student Abbas Ahmadlou has begun serving a one-year prison sentence in Arak on charges of insulting the Supreme Leader and causing unease among public opinion.

HRANA reports that writer and translator Hojatollah Nikou'i has been arrested.

1210 GMT: Punishing the mourners. Students of Elm-o-Sanat University who attended the memorial for Kianoush Asa, slain last year in the post-election conflict, have received notices of suspension.

1208 GMT: Democracy and Security. Former President Mohammad Khatami has condemned the Zahedan bombings and said democracy is "the least expensive and most useful way to rule".

1202 GMT: Mohammad Shahryari and Abbas Ali Noura, two of the three MPs who had said they would resign after last Thursday's bombing in Sistan and Baluchistan Province, have announced they will remain in the Majlis after advice from the Supreme Leader. They said, however, that if they do not see Government action for security, they will call the Foreign Minister and Minister of Interior to account in Parliament.

1157 GMT: Economic Front. MP Hossein Eslami has claimed that 70% of Iran's imports are affected by corruption. Eslami said Iran, rather than having a massive imbalance of imports, should be exporting far more goods than it takes in. He added that workers have no labour security, which is a major reason for divorces.

1155 GMT: The Zahedan Bombing. Two more victims of last Thursday's double suicide bombing in southeastern Iran have died, bringing the toll to 29.

1145 GMT: When Internet Censorship Starts to Bite. Perhaps when even institutions inside Iran start disseminating anti-filtering software?

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reports that Tabnak, affiliated Secretary of Expediency Council and 2009 Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, has posted a link to a proxy server (although that link is now "broken" when we tried to access it).

In April a pro-Ahmadinejad website had complained about the "filtering" of other sites.

1140 GMT: Parliament v. President. A pointed attack from MP Ali Motahari: the Majlis should stand firmly against "khodkamegi" (obstinacy/dictatorship) of the Government. Motahari even turned on fellow legislators, saying some caused the Government's insubordination and tendency to flout laws.

1050 GMT: Sanctions Watch. We've posted a separate entry on what appears to be a significant development with the restriction of Pakistani business with Iran.

The European Union is reportedly considering new sanctions, including bans on investment in the oil and gas sector and restrictions on shipping and finance. The draft of the measures names 41 Iranian people, 57 companies or other entities, 15 additional companies thought to be controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and three under the control of the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines.

Senior European diplomats will discuss the proposed sanctions on Thursday.

0820 GMT: "I'm Sorry" on a Blog Gets a Travel Ban. Adeleh Ziaei has received a ban on travel for posting “I’m Sorry” on the blog of her husband Arya Aramnejad, an artist, singer, and composer.

Aramnejad was arrested in March, and Ziaei, wrote, “I’m sorry to say that Arya was wrong to think that in his beloved country, terms such as Law, Freedom, oh! Freedom! Dignity and Justice mean anything besides merely seductive words; he was wrong that he didn’t know this is Iran, a place where anything may take place and whoever has the power can accomplish whatever he wants!”

Aramanejad has been held in solitary confinement for 50 days. His trial was on 6 July but he could not present a defense since he had no access to his judicial file.

0755 GMT: We've posted a follow-up to last Friday's dissection of war talk posing as reporting and analysis, "Dealing with the Media’s 'War, War, War' Drumbeat".

0705 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Students Iman Sedighi, Mohsen Barzgar, and Hossein Nataj were released from Mati Kola Prison in Babol on Sunday after serving half of their sentences.

0615 GMT: We begin this morning with a translation of Sunday's prepared statement by journalist Isa Saharkhiz for his appearance in Revolutionary Court: "Should the Supreme Leader Be Dismissed?"

Meanwhile, this rather silly diversion....

On Sunday, we noted the curious claim of Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of Parliament's National Security Commission, that "the US Congress has informed the Swiss envoy that it is ready to hold negotiations with Iran". We requested, "Mr Boroujerdi, please do get in touch with us and let us know which US Congressmen have been talking to you of this hope for discussions — because we haven’t seen any sign of this back-channel being established."

While I don't think Mr Boroujerdi is a regular EA reader, we got an answer yesterday via the Islamic Republic News Agency: "Boroujerdi said that Iran turned down a request made by U.S. Senator John Kerry to pay a visit to Tehran because the US Democrats proved inconsistent in word and action."

Hmm.... While Kerry is a former Presidential candidate and the head of the Senate's Foreign Relations Committee, I'm not sure he is "the US Congress". At the same time, he has pursued initiatives either on behalf of the Administration (a trip to Afghanistan) or as the point man for US diplomacy (a visit to Syria before the US re-established an Embassy in Damascus).

If Kerry did sound out the Iranians about shaking hands in Tehran, it is either a risky individual initiative or a fumbling step for "engagement", given Tehran's exposure of the approach.

Comments

[Catherine]

A First!!

Tehran to host Dutch film week in autumn
The Andisheh Hall of Tehran’s Art Bureau will host a Dutch film week from October 23 to 28. The event is cosponsored by the Sureh University and the Netherlands Embassy in Tehran.

“This is the first time that an Iranian university and an embassy in Tehran cooperate for holding a film week to introduce Dutch cinema and its style for Iranian audiences,” the Sureh University professor Hassan Dezvareh told the Persian service of the Mehr News Agency on Sunday.

Among the classic Dutch films to be showcased: the taboo-breaking 1973 hit 'Turkish Delight', and the popular portrait of a typical Dutch family,'Flodder'.

“About 70 films were submitted to Iran, many of which are short films, including Theo van Gogh's masterpiece,'Submission', and upcoming director Geert Wilders' incisive documentary on the Koran,'Fitna'. The complete shortlist and program for the event will be announced in the near future,” Dezvareh mentioned.

Dezvareh added that two workshops will be held during the week in which issues related to documentary and feature film editing, and animation, will be discussed by Dutch film experts and Danish cartoonists.

The event will also hold a retrospective on documentaries made by Bert Haanstra who won an Oscar for his 10-minute documentary “Glass” (1958).
http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=223343" rel="nofollow">http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=...

:-)

[Catherine]

The Plot Thickens

Amiri Told CIA Iran Has No Nuclear Bomb Programme
Contrary to a news media narrative that Iranian scientist Shahram Amiri has provided intelligence on covert Iranian nuclear weapons work, CIA sources familiar with the Amiri case say he told his CIA handlers that there is no such Iranian nuclear weapons programme, according to a former CIA officer.
http://ipsnorthamerica.net/news.php?idnews=3201" rel="nofollow">http://ipsnorthamerica.net/news.php?idnews=3201

[Catherine]

Remember yesterday's photos from MEHR showing idle machinery and workforce because of repeated power outages? Funnily enough, Mehr also reports that the second international exhibition on innovation in production, saving and optimization of energy, titled Iran Energy Saving Exhibition (IES 2010), kicked off in Tehran on Sunday.
http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=223303" rel="nofollow">http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=...

I wonder what page the photos were on? :-)

[Catherine]

Back to serious stuff
Ahmadinejad the Weak
The protests in the Tehran bazaar during the past few weeks weren't tied to the Green Movement. Even so, they are bad news for the regime
BY ARANG KESHAVARZIAN
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/07/19/ahmadinejad_the_weak?page=0%2C1" rel="nofollow">http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/07/1...

[Catherine]

Seven women and three men are sentenced to death for adultery
http://www.iranhumanrights.org/2010/07/larazon-stoning-english/" rel="nofollow">http://www.iranhumanrights.org/2010/07/larazon-...

[Catherine]

More Plot Thickening

Shahram Amiri in Intelligence Quarantine
According to an informed source who spoke to Rooz, on his arrival in Iran Shahram Amiri was taken to an intelligence quarantine where he is now. Prior to being transferred to an unknown location, security agents took him to the Iranian state television studios where he appeared in a nationally televised program.
http://www.roozonline.com/english/news/newsitem/article/2010/july/20//shahram-amiri-in-intelligence-quarantine.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.roozonline.com/english/news/newsitem...

[Arshama]

S-300 Watch

Russian official rules out delivering to Iran missiles that fall under UN sanctions.
Military official Alexander Fomin on Tuesday did not directly identify the S-300s, but pledged Moscow would desist from supplying "large missile systems" in accordance with the sanctions, Interfax reported. http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5jSDEvOkyXB5gnfoWffggGIpVw88g" rel="nofollow">http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/...

[Arshama]

Metro Watch

Mohammad Nekounam, head of Article 90 Commission, announced that Majlis has accorded $2 billions assistance to Tehran's metro, after AN had refused to sign the bill: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=19418" rel="nofollow">http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=19418
Good news for Tehran's mayor Ghalibaf.

[Arshama]

SL Watch

The SL has publicly declared himself and his "velayate faghih" as representative of the Hidden Imam (Mahdi): http://parlemannews.com/?n=12538" rel="nofollow">http://parlemannews.com/?n=12538
Next step will be god himself ;-)

[Arshama]

IRGC Watch

Kafka has published IRGC documents on how to investigate foreign and domestic opposition groups (unconfirmed) http://picasaweb.google.com/113157402068802138203/Album1#" rel="nofollow">http://picasaweb.google.com/1131574020688021382...

[Arshama]

The Revolt Against the Supreme Leader Begins http://pajamasmedia.com/michaelledeen/2010/07/20/the-revolt-against-the-supreme-leader-begins/" rel="nofollow">http://pajamasmedia.com/michaelledeen/2010/07/2...
Ledeen also reports that Bazaar strikes continue (highly recommended)

[Nancy Butters]

Yes, but isn't Ledeen the one who also reported that the Supreme Leader was dead last year? Doesn't give me much confidence.

[The Revolt Against the Supreme]

[...] could be no greater sign of the regime’s mounting insecurity than the fatwa issued today — Tuesday the 20th — by Khamenei, asserting that he rules in the name of the Prophet, and that [...]

[Arshama]

Nancy,

Although I cannot approve the news about the ongoing Bazaar strike (but see: 1440 GMT: Bazaar Rumours), all the rest is valid. I don't agree at all with Ledeen's approval for war instead of talks, but I fully agree with him on the fact that Khamenei's today's fatwa is a sign of weakness, or rather of despair. It will surely backfire, especially from the side of Iranian clerics, who are now pressed to decide, if they accept such a heresy or condemn it publicly.
Until now I believed only AN has gone mad by attacking his rivals and opponents, but today's fatwa shows that the SL has decided to behave similarly.

Arshama

[Cyrus S]

I believe that Shahram Amiri was a double agent and was really on a mission given to him by the Iranian regime when he left Iran. According to Americans he had worked for the CIA for several years and he left Iran to Saudi Arabia on a mission to deliver the CIA the informations they needed, I don't even think the coming to America was a part of CIA's plans, but instead Amiri's when he asked them that he was interested to move to the US and continue his education which is very strange for a married man with kids and familly back home. He was sent by the regime to serve the following purposes:
1- he was only a professor involved in nuclear research and the intelligence he had was no more than an ordinary students or the info available on regular university research reports. so even if he was willing to cooperate with the CIA or drugged, bribed or what ever he couldn't possibly give them any valuable secrets. There are thousands of North Korean, Russian and Pakistani weapon and nuclear experts working in Iran and they may be the ones actually engaged in the weapons programs
2- He was sent by the IRI to give misleading details about the nuclear and weapons programs
3- by claiming that he was kidnapped discredit the US and take away attention from Iran's terrorism, nuclear and human rights situation
4- by a combination of all 3, buy more time

Americans always underestimate how secretive, tricky and dirty the mullahs and the Iranian regime are, Americans and non-Iranians will never fully understand the Iranian mind set, only the Iranian people do.

[Baz]

Arshama

"if they accept such a heresy"

Could you explain this a little further please - for a non-muslim :)

Barry

[WitteKr]

Why did the fatwa disappear from those sites? It's - by the way - still up on the new 'Facebook-like' site in support of 'Leader': http://velayatmadaran.ir/" rel="nofollow">http://velayatmadaran.ir/

[Arshama]

Barry,

You caught me flat-footed ;-)
Being no religious expert at all, I will try to explain it in my humble way: imagine the Pope would declare he is the successor of Jesus (not his representative) on earth. Obviously the Catholics would not be amused.
Perhaps Mr Verde is more qualified to answer such a difficult theological question...

Arshama

[Bijan77]

Arshama/Barry -

Forgive me if I misred the quote but it sounds to me he is claming not that he is the successor, as my understanding is with the coming of the hidden imam the world is purified so no succesor would exist (similar to the christian belief of armaggedon) but rather the fatwa states allegiance to the SL is the same as/necessary to have alligence to the Mahdi. The heresy, again as I understand, is the claim to have represenation of the Mahdi. You may also recall lots of anger about AN's comments where he claimed to see and/or speak to the Mahdi (I don't recall which one). I will try to find some links to better explain as I am pressed for time. This article goes into some detail but does not address the heretical nature of some comments...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_al-Mahdi" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_al-Mahdi

[Bijan77]

Arshama/Barry -

Having trouble with discus account so sorry for the mulitple posts. I am not a religous expert myself either but to use Arshama's analogy I would equate it more so to the pope saying something to the effect of unless you follow me, you do not follow Jesus Christ.

[Baz]

Thank you Arshama and Bijan

Arshama - I wasn't trying to catch you "flat footed" :)

I was thinking that the "heresy" was the implication (or perhaps I should say - the inference taken by me) of the superiority of Shi-ism over Sunni.

"and the same as the rule of the Prophet. As long as you obey the commands of the ruler of the Muslims [the Supreme Leader], it shows that you have full obedience to that."

It seems to me that he is saying that his rule is the same as the Prophet (Mohammid) - and that he (SL) therefore is the ruler of all Muslims as the Prophet is??

Barry

[Arshama]

Bijan and Barry,

Yes, you put it more rightly, but in the end it remains the same: sort of an equation with the Mahdi. The heresy lies in the fact that Shiites have only 14 "masoum" (innocents), and no human being can represent the Hidden Imam on earth, because he or she is not innocent (as far as I am informed).
Already in 2008 AN had declared that "his (Mahdi's) hand is directing all the affairs of the country," http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/07/AR2008050703587.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/ar...

His words turned out right ;-)

Arshama

[Bijan77]

Barry -

Hope the articles were informative. And I agree with Arshama tht the overall issue is the direct alignment with the Mahdi. And my understanding of the masoom is similar..though that may not mean much =)!

Either way, several scholars have issue with the claims as it seems to be widely accepted, to Arshama's point, that not only can no human represent the Mahdi, nor can they claim to have knowledge of his arrival, intent, etc, therefore anyone who claims such knowledge is commiting heresy.

[Arshama]

Witte,

Supposedly the fartwa, oops, fatwa disappeared because of its very negative implications for the SL, who could be confronted with the anger of the clerics, especially the maraje. But perhaps they do not care at all (except for the few supporters of the Greens) and continue to doze peacefully in their Holy Republic...

Arshama

[Arshama]

@ 2055 GMT: Negotiations?

IRNA has the story: Ashton, Mottaki discuss issues of mutual interest http://www.irna.ir/En/default.aspx?IdLanguage=3" rel="nofollow">http://www.irna.ir/En/default.aspx?IdLanguage=3