The Latest from Iran (10 July): The Plot Against the President

1915 GMT: Thanks to readers for keeping the news and analysis coming in. We're taking a personal break today (between you and me, it's the daughter's birthday party) and will be back with a full service from Sunday morning.

1910 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Behzad Arab Gol, a member of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s election campaign team, has been released from prison on a bail of more than $100,000 after more than six months in detention.

NEW Iran Exclusive: The Plot to Remove Ahmadinejad, Act II
Iran Document: Detained Student Leader Tavakoli on 18 Tir & Protest (6 July)
Iran Analysis: Assessing the Bazaar Strikes & a Political Twist (Verde)
The Latest from Iran (9 July): Remembering 18 Tir?

1320 GMT: Heat? What Heat? The Government's holidays on Sunday and Monday for "excessive heat" seems to have disappeared for factory workers.

The Iranian Labor News Agency quotes the head of the Tehran Work and Social Affairs Organization, who says factories will be open even though government offices will be closed

An EA correspondent asks, "If the new holidays were due to hot weather, why would you close down offices but not factories whose workers would be affected more by the heat?"

1315 GMT: Remembering. Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that 2000 people were at Beheshte Zahra cemetery yesterday to remember loved ones, including those killed in post-election conflict.

1305 GMT: Supreme Leader "Justice and Peace --- Unless You're America". Meeting Iranian officials and ambassadors to commemorate Eid-al-Mab'ath, the day when Muhammad was appointed to prophethood, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei offered greetings of "justice, peace, and security for all humans".

That is, with one exception. The Supreme Leader said Islam was opposed to "corrupt" Washington, with its huge budget to wage wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and to help Israel maintain instability in the Middle East.

1105 GMT: Holidays Because of Weather Heat or Political Heat? Peyke Iran claims The head of Iran's national weather service has said his unit did not advise holidays on Sunday and Monday because of high temperatures: the "weather is no hotter than normal".

Hmm.... maybe it's the Government that is especially sensitive to the heat these days.

1100 GMT: The Right Civil Disobedience. Iranian political scientist Ramin Jahanbegloo, now living abroad, talks to Rah-e-Sabz about protest and "ending the culture of violence". Assessing opposition strategy, he declares, "Using violence as an excuse does not justify it."

0920 GMT: The Battle Within. Conservative politician Morteza Nabavi has said that President Ahmadinejad's supporters "promote an Islam without clergy".

MP Younes Assadi has warned that, if Minister of Welfare Sadegh Mahsouli "does not change his actions", he will be called to account before the Majlis during next three months.

0900 GMT: International Development. Islamic Republic News Agency highlights the signing of six agreements in New Delhi between Iranian and Indian delegations. The pacts cover cooperation in new and renewable energy, small industry, science and technology, and pulp and paper production.

0855 GMT: Labour Front. Rah-e-Sabz claims that 200 drivers at the Tehran and Suburbs Bus Company (Sherkate Vahed) are on the verge of dismissal.

0715 GMT: Oil Squeeze. Reihaneh Mazaheri, writing in Mianeh, reports from traders that Iran is discounting oil between $3 and $7 per barrel to prop up sales amidst sanctions and reduction in demand.

0710 GMT: Power Cut. Rah-e-Sabz claims that some parts of Tehran have gone 12 hours without electricity.

0700 GMT: Larijani v. Ahmadinejad. Back to our special analysis of the rising challenge to the President --- Agence France Presse has noticed something is up, quoting from a speech by Ali Larijani on Friday in Karaj:

If we want to stand up to our enemies, we need to improve the economy. Iran has big oil and gas reserves -- the way to use that wealth is not by handing out money to people but by using it to develop the nation's productive capacity. Social justice... means providing universal employment not giving monthly handouts to stop people starving....

How can you ask an ordinary villager to respect the law, if politicians don't?...We in Parliament will not allow anybody...to disregard the law because that's an act of rebellion and a shameful violation.

0610 GMT: We begin this morning with an exclusive report and analysis, based on information from a range of sources, "The Plot to Remove Ahmadinejad, Act II".

Meanwhile, after an 18 Tir which passed relatively quietly, even though it was the anniversary of the 1999 university demonstrations....

The Bazaar Strikes

The bazaars will now effectively be closed from this past Thursday to Monday --- the Government, because of "extreme heat", has added Sunday and Monday as public holidays to today's religious holiday of Mab'as.

Robert Tait offers an overview and analysis of the situation in an article for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

Mousavi's Moves

In what has been a most active week for Mir Hossein Mousavi --- even if the effect of his moves is unknown at this point --- the opposition figure has added a statement on "The Diversity of the Green Movement", rejecting the need for a leader. He has met with reformist students to suggest, that if those who caused the catastrophe of 18 Tir (the suppression of the 1999 demonstrations) were punished, the post-election attacks on the universities dormitories would not have occurred.

In Rah-e-Sabz, Mehdi Jalali asks, "Do we want a secular Mousavi?" Jalali asserts that Mousavi could never be secular but points to his three promises of freedom of expression, freedom of assembly and organisation, and free elections as a basis for mutual trust.

Political Prisoner Watch

Video has been posted of a telephone interview with recently-released human rights activist Narges Mohammadi, who claims she was abused and put in solitary confinement. She had a pulmonary embolism in prison and is still very weak.

Comments

[Catherine]

Scott,
Why are the comments closed on yesterday's Iran thread?http://enduringamerica.com/2010/07/09/the-latest-from-iran-9-july-remembering-18-tir/
There was no nasty behaviour going on and there are only 25 comments posted. I would like to reply to someone.

[ScottLucas11]

Catherine,

I'm sure Mike can advise but we have had past glitches where comments have cut-off at a number (like 25 or 50). I think I can get in as an administrator and add a comment that discussion continues on this 10 July thread.

S.

[Catherine]

RE The Bazaar Strikes
Even ABC News is reporting on this, albeit republishing an AP report by Brian Murphy. http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=11127170" rel="nofollow">http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=11127170

The article first quotes Rasool Nafisi: "The bazaar merchants have traditionally defended their own commercial interests and like to maintain the status quo unless their interests are threatened," said Rasool Nafisi, an Iranian affairs expert at Strayer University in Virginia.

"But things are so volatile in Iran now, it's possible this could turn into a political mess for the government."

But then Brian Murphy writes, without attribution, "Anti-government websites have called on the merchants to publicly throw their weight behind the opposition movement. That would bring considerable new clout to the dissidents, whose protests have been silenced by security forces."

Has anyone seen any evidence of this?

[Catherine]

Houshang Asadi has written a guest op-ed for Informed Comment: 'Iran: Today’s Internal Affairs, Tomorrow’s Global Impact'

"..what we are witnessing right now in Iran is a hard-fought battle between the liberal and fundamentalist readings of Islam." .... "The outcome of the ongoing power struggle between these two opposing factions carries great significance not just for Iran but for the international community. A victory by the Iranian “Taliban” will take Iran on a downward spiral and would place the country’s wealth and geopolitical powers entirely at the disposal of those who believe Islam’s global hegemony is possible through violent jihad, which is why they wish to secure nuclear capabilities."
http://www.juancole.com/2010/07/asadi-on-iran-todays-internal-affairs-tomorrows-global-impact.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.juancole.com/2010/07/asadi-on-iran-t...

[Catherine]

Arshama,
RE "By the way, Paul the octopus had rightly predicted Germany to loose the match against Spain. Shouldn't we let him make a prognosis about the IR? I only hope that Paul has survived ;-)"

Even before all the current commotion and jokes surrounding Paul (death threats, the Spanish Govt. offering Paul political asylum - see http://www.juancole.com/2010/07/world-cup-death-threats-for-paul-the-oracle-octopus.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.juancole.com/2010/07/world-cup-death... and comments underneath) I was assuring my co-workers I had heard that Paul had been quickly sold to a nearby Chinese restaurant :-).

But if he still gets it right on Sunday, I'm all for you idea. So which Iranian flags do you suggest we let him choose from? :-)

[Catherine]

Iran imposes media blackout over stoning sentence woman
Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani will not be stoned, the regime has said, but family fear she will be hanged instead

Newspapers, agencies and TV channels in Iran have been banned from reporting Mohammadi Ashtiani's death sentence, despite an international campaign launched by her children, which has been joined by politicians and celebrities from all over the world.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jul/09/iran-blackout-over-stoning-sentence-woman" rel="nofollow">http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jul/09/ira...

[Bill Mason]

I asked a friend in Tehran about the 0710 GMT Rah-e-Sabz report about power outages. She told me she did not know of 12 hour outages in Tehran, but such things were happening in other cities. In Tehran she did know of 2-3 hour outages that were happening. FWIW.

[Catherine]

Also on the same subject, the LA Times
IRAN: Government backs off on stoning, but what's next?
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2010/07/iran-government-backs-off-on-stoning-but-whats-next.html" rel="nofollow">http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2...

[Catherine]

Kurt,
RE your comment yesterday, "with all these speculations of impeachment and principlist maneuvers, my main problem has been to ask, how would this benefit them save with a shift or factionalization of Sepah to back them up?"

I agree with you, and there are reports of divided loyalties amongst the Sepah, but I think they will defend the status quo until some other faction or combination of factions pushes hard enough to reach the critical mass needed for someone to "fall".

[Mike]

I've just reopened the comments. No idea why they closed, either a comments glitch or an accident by one of us. Should be working now:

http://enduringamerica.com/2010/07/09/the-latest-from-iran-9-july-remembering-18-tir/" rel="nofollow">http://enduringamerica.com/2010/07/09/the-lates...

[Catherine]

Bill - wherever you are,
Don't miss the discussion going on in the comments section of: http://enduringamerica.com/2010/07/06/iran-document-the-mousavi-khatami-meeting-5-july/" rel="nofollow">http://enduringamerica.com/2010/07/06/iran-docu...

[WitteKr]

The other spy story: Ex-soldier in Iran's Revolutionary Guard writes of life as CIA spy.
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/meast/07/09/iran.cia.book/index.html?hpt=C2&fbid=X-9bZXLJlyS" rel="nofollow">http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/meast/07/09/i...

[Catherine]

And now for what we've all been waiting for:
Iran human rights chief defends stoning sentence
Head of Human Rights Headquarters of Iran's Judiciary, Mohammad Javad Larijani slammed Western protests against stoning emphasizing that stoning exists in Iran’s constitution and it is “legal.”

Mohammad Javad Larijani backed the stoning sentence of Sakineh Mohammadi claiming her judicial file has gone through its “natural” course and there is no “point of doubt” about anything in her file.
More: http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/07/iran-human-rights-chief-d.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/07/iran-huma...

[Catherine]

Protests in front of Iranian Embassy in Turkey

Iranian refugees and the Association of Iranian Democrats in Turkey staged a protest in front of Iranian Embassy in Ankara yesterday to mark the student uprising of July 9, 1999 in Iran.
http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/07/protests-in-front-of-iran.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/07/protests-...

[WitteKr]

Re 1320, the Heat: workers and students alike! Governement offices closed, but factories and universities remain in business. "University is not a holiday / end semester University examinations tomorrow and after tomorrow will be held" (headline from Mehr news).
But lets face it: it's 43 degrees out there. In a report on the situation yesterday, Friday, Persian2English also noted: "The warm weather temperatures also meant that fewer people were present at the prayers." http://persian2english.com/?p=12583" rel="nofollow">http://persian2english.com/?p=12583
The same report also mentions "In today’s Friday Prayers, a publication titled “Lessons from Ashura” was distributed. The publication stated harsh accusations against Rafsanjani and the management of Azad University. The publication operates under the supervision of Hezbollah."

[Catherine]

WitteKr,
Are you also a fan of Iranian robots? :-) Or does your new icon have some other significance?

[WitteKr]

No other significance, Catherine, you got it spot on! :-)

[Kurt]

WitteKr, something about this Kahlili fellow doesn't sit well with me.

Here was an interview with Reza Aslan from April.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-04-04/iranian-secret-agent-to-america-act-now/full/" rel="nofollow">http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/...

His over-generalizations of the rank and file (which may be truer of the Basij) and his neocon prescriptions make me uneasy.

[Kurt]

Thanks Catherine. Yes, I agree with what you've added. I suppose these questions were fresh in my mind after (finally) reading the Rand monograph, "The Rise of the Pasdaran," which Scott posted some time ago. What happens among politicians is intriguing, but sometimes I feel they are but surface ripples, the causes of which remain murky and which emanate deep from within several power centers. Whether they arise or not out of Sepah, it might be a crucial institutional component in any political solution at this point. Could it arise out of placating a possible morale crisis (which is anecdotal), or the mid-level echelons vying for power in conjunction with the former principlist Guardsmen pulling sway? I don't know. Haven't a clue. And I'm leaving out the Supreme Leader's position in all this. It would require him, as well. I don't see that happening. He's tied his legitimacy to AN insomuch as trying to push Rafsanjani out in what has been something of a championship Sumo match between the two most powerful men of the IRI. In short, I remain unconvinced as to the efficacy of a parliamentary power-play, or what the end game would be. The cards seems stacked against any resolution but for further limiting the damage AN can do. I don't think Ali Larijani & Co. would be selfless enough to hasten the implementation of Art. 131.

I realize I've gone through a lot of very general knowledge, but just thought I'd flesh it out for myself here. ;-) And, I still hope for something to happen, of course.

[Catherine]

Kurt and WitteKr,
I have my doubts about Kahlili, too. But he's an interesting character no matter what. Check out this more extensive interview Kahlili gave to Michael J. Totten:
http://www.michaeltotten.com/2010/04/our-man-inside-irans-revolutionary-guards.php" rel="nofollow">http://www.michaeltotten.com/2010/04/our-man-in...

In the interview with MJT, Kahlili also describes the scenario of Israel bombing Iran's nuclear facilities as likely, but beyond that he seems to actually advocate taking out the Revolutionary Guard:

"Reza Kahlili: Israel is a special subject. People in Iran do not sympathize with Israel the way they sympathize with the U.S. They're looking for help, right? But they're not looking for the same kind of help from Israel.

So if Israel bombs the facilities in Iran, don't expect people to come out into the streets to celebrate or confront the government forces. That's not going to happen. They're just going to sit at home and pray this thing doesn't get out of hand.

MJT: What if the Israelis destroyed the Revolutionary Guards? How might the Iranian people react to that?

Reza Kahlili: That would be very different from just destroying the nuclear facilities. I would say that if any power takes on the Revolutionary Guards, they will find sympathy from the Iranian people. Even Israel."

!!