The Latest from Iran (23 July): Receding Authority

1130 GMT: New Media Nonsense. A quick note to The International Herald Tribune: if  you are going to shell out money for a guest columnist to discuss the political effects of new media in the Middle East and Iran, you might to go to someone who is actually involved with those new media. Otherwise you get declarations like this:

We must face the fact that all the new media and hundreds of thousands of young bloggers from Morocco to Iran have not triggered a single significant or lasting change in Arab or Iranian political culture. Not a single one. Zero.

(I should add that I am a great admirer of Rami Khouri, who wrote the column. To my knowledge, however, his primary connection with the subject on which he is pronouncing is as an observer of "Millions of young people communicate with each other digitally, express their views and identities, and sometimes mobilize for causes as disparate as promoting a new movie, arranging a dance party, sharing photos or bemoaning a tired old dictator".)

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Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader & the Disappearing Fatwa (Verde)
The Latest from Iran (22 July): Confusing Regime

1030 GMT: Talking Tough. Minister of Commerce Mehdi Ghazanfari has warned against any plan for the inspection of the country's cargo ships: "Iran reserves the right to respond to inspections as any such attempts will be a move beyond the sanctions resolution."

0855 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert. Press TV, drawing from Mehr News, reports:

Iran ranks sixth among the world's countries based on inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) performance, the latest report released by a UN agency shows.

New data released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) show that Iran attracted more than $3 billion of direct investment from abroad in 2009, which is twice the amount of the previous year. This is despite the fact that global FDI inflows dropped during 2009 as compared to the previous year.

The UNCTAD ranking is for the year 2009, the most recent year available, and examines the economies of 141 economies.

The link to the "Country Fact Sheet" for the report is currently broken. Other reports have indicated that foreign direct investment into Iran has plummeted in recent months.

0605 GMT: Declaration of the Day. Meeting the son of the late Grand Ayatollah Fadlallah on Thursday, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad pronounced, "All the injustices and brutalities in the world today will soon be eradicated with the awakening of all nations."

No comment.

0530 GMT: Three days after it started, the affair of the Supreme Leader's "disappearing" fatwa is still inconclusive. There has no been explanation for why his declaration --- "I am the Rule of the Prophet" --- suddenly showed up and was then withdrawn from most of the official Iranian media.

Mr Verde has done an excellent job at rounding up the political and religious possibilities, none of which are promising for Ayatollah Khamenei's authority. I will go a step further: amidst all the challenges within the Iranian system, the confusion points to two aspects:

1. The Supreme Leader wanted to bring senior clerics, many of whom have been disquieted by the growing conflict amongst "the establishment", in line by asserting his leadership. The fatwa was the wrong move, however: far from reassuring the clerics of Khamenei's authority, it soon provoked more concern. So it had to be pulled back.

And/or...

2. There is a rift even within Khamenei's inner circle. One group pushed this initiative --- likely with Khamenei's assent, but possibly going farther than the Supreme Leader might have expected --- another pushed back.

Speculative, I know. So maybe it's best to start by saying that the outcome of this week is not clarity but confusion. And, as Mr Verde has driven home, it is not strength but weakness.

Meanwhile....

The Universities Fight

In another pointer to the challenges for and possibly to the Supreme Leader, conservative politician Morteza Nabavi has said that Khamenei has left the resolution of the conflict over Islamic Azad University to the judiciary.

Political Prisoner Watch

Zahra Rahnavard, activist and wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, http://www.rahesabz.net/story/20011/ of labour activist Mansur Osanloo, who has been detained for three years.

The "Discussions with the US" Diversion

The curious episode of Iran's claims that it has been approached by Washington for talks --- revelation or propaganda? --- trundles on. Reformist MP Mostafa Kavakebian has said there should be no preconditions on discussions.

Trouble with the Water

The Governor of Tehran Province, Morteza Tamaddon, has insisted that the Minister of Health is responsible for the problems with the capital's polluted water supply.

The Latest from Iran (17 July): Back to "Normal"?

2020 GMT: A Just Republic. Meeting students, former President Mohammad Khatami has declared that people want freedom and a republic compatible with religion.

2015 GMT: Electricity Squeeze. Power shortages are reportedly causing daily losses of millions of dollars for domestic companies, especially in Tehran area. The schedule of rotating closures announced by the Ministry of Energy is not being implemented.

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UPDATED Iran Analysis: When “War Chatter” Poses as Journalism (Step Up, Time Magazine)
Iran: Thursday’s Suicide Bombings in Zahedan
The Latest from Iran (16 July): Explosions and Conflict

2005 GMT: The Sanctions. It appears that Germany may be accepting the restrictions on Iranian banks: reports indicate Bank Sepah accounts in Frankfurt will be closed.

A study by a former US Treasury Department analyst had found that five German banks continue to do business with Iranian entities sanctioned by the most recent UN Security Council measures and that four major Iranian banks sanctioned by the Treasury Department or the Security Council continued to operate in Germany.

1940 GMT: Not Diplomatic Immunity (cont.). The Swiss and Iranian Governments have denied earlier reports (see 1605 GMT) in Iran's state media that Switzerland's Ambassador was detained for hours on a journey to northeastern Iran.

Switzerland's foreign ministry said Ambassador Livia Leu Agosti had only been "checked by local police during a trip". Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said that the story had "been covered inaccurately and wrongly".

1935 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has joined in the condemnation of Thursday's bombing in Zahedan,  "Historical records show that in Iran and countries like Iraq, Afghanistan and Palestine..., terrorists and occupiers have never been and never will be able to achieve their ominous objectives through bloodshed and the massacre of innocents."

However, Rafsanjani --- at least in the summary of his remarks --- did not echo the theme of blaming outside powers such as the US for supporting the attacks.

1815 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Green Voice of Freedom, summarising this week's strikes, adds Isfahan and Mashaad to Tehran and Tabriz.

1605 GMT: Not Diplomatic Immunity. Iranian authorites detained the Swiss Ambassador, Livia Leu Agosti, freeing her a few hours later.

Agosti was travelling in North Khorasan Province in northeastern Iran when she was arrested Diplomatic immunity did not apply, according to the Iranian Foreign Ministry, ""because her identity was not established at the time".

It is not clear why the Ambassador was detained.

1545 GMT: Russia, Iran, and the Oil Squeeze. I thought, given this week's news about agreement for a joint oil bank, that Moscow and Tehran were now good energy buddies despite the international sanctions.

So how to explain this bit of Tehran pressure?

Oil Minister Massoud Mirkazemi warned on Saturday that Iran will blacklist foreign firms like Russian energy giant Lukoil that pull out of projects because of sanctions against Tehran: "If one of the companies acts against Iran, we will be forced to consider the reality and put that company on a blacklist."..."They will no longer work in our country," he said.

Mirkazemi singled out the case of Lukoil, which announced it was pulling out in March as new UN, US and EU sanctions over Tehran's controversial nuclear programme loomed. The minister said the Russian firm had reneged on its commitments in the Anaran oilfield which it discovered in western Iran in 2005.

But he added that Iran might consider continuing to work with Lukoil "if we can adjust the content of the agreement."

1410 GMT: A Different Line on Zahedan Bombing. An interesting alternative to the US-Iran dynamic on blame for Thursday's two suicide bombings in southeastern Iran. The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front has said that “an iron fist” is not an adequate response to the problems in Sistan & Baluchistan . Indeed, the violence occurs amidst the “coup d’etat government’s policies of intimidation, violence, and oppression which is being forced on every aspect of every single Iranian's life, equally”.

1245 GMT: In Case Another Excuse Was Needed for US-Iran Scrapping. President Obama has condemned the Zahedan bombings as an "intolerable offense".

Those words, however, are not going to stem the Iran Government's rhetoric over the attack. Revolutionary Guard commander Massoud Jazayeri has warned, "Jundollah has been supported by America for its terrorist acts in the past....America will have to await the fallout of such criminal and savage measures."

And it looks like Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani is going to join in: "The terrorist attack in the southeast of the country took place with the backing of the US....We have strong documents and intelligence that [executed Jundullah leader Abdolmalek] Rigi was linked to the US, and the US supported him in terror against Iran."

1100 GMT: The Zahedan Bombings. The Government's changing line on Thursday's suicide bombings --- Jundullah is no longer responsible since they had been "defeated" --- is being challenged. Heshmatollah Fallahatpisheh, a member of Parliament's National Security Commission, has demanded publication of documents about Jundullah.

1050 GMT: Parliament v. President (On All Fronts). Challenges here, there, and everywhere....

Ahmad Tavakoli has maintained his leading role in the pressure against the Government, asking for an investigation of former Tehran Prosecutor General and current Presidential aide Saeed Mortazavi over the Kahrizak Prison abuse case.

On the economic front, Elyas Naderan has announced a plan to return Iran Telecom to public control. Emad Hosseini has declared that there is no possibility of implementing subsidy cuts.

And just getting personal, reformist Abdollah Ramezanzadeh has filed a complaint against pro-Ahmadinejad MP Sattar Hedayatkhah.

1045 GMT: More Feuding over Universities. The Guardian Council has rejected a Parliament project supporting the establishment and strengthening of independent academic centres.

1010 GMT: Parliament v. President. Khabar Online claims 80% of members of Parliament have approved the demand for impeachment of Minister of Agriculture Sadegh Khaliliyan.

1005 GMT: Regime Moves to "Hard War"? Bahram Rafiee in Rooz Online posts the analysis that the rhetoric of the regime is shifting from a "soft war" to "hard war" with its enemies. He cites an example in the Supreme Leader's speech to Revolutionary Guard commanders this week, “All national officials must carry out their heavy duties in the various fields and be ready to confront anything as they have been for the past 31 years. Certainly, and without any doubt, the great Iranian nation and the Islamic republic will continue to emerge victorious from this perpetual struggle, as they have been in the past.”

0830 GMT: After the Bombings. Iranian state media reports that 40 suspects have been arrested over Thursday's double suicide bombing in southeastern Iran. State TV has shown thousands attending victims' funerals, chanting "Death to Terrorists" and "Down with the US".

0810 GMT: We have posted a Saturday feature, "Change for Iran: Why Twitter Has Made a Difference".

0710 GMT: A Philosopher's Stand. The German philosopher Otfried Höffe has written in Frankfurter Allgemeine that he will not attend UNESCO's World Day of Philosophy in Tehran, given the human rights abuses of the "unpredictable dictatorship": "With [Immanuel] Kant's reflections on the relationship between philosophy and revelation, I wanted to contribute to our understanding of religion in a highly industrialized country. But now I see myself forced to withdraw from the commitment."

0625 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Azeri activist Firouz Yousefi has been released on bail after being arrested for acts against national security.

0555 GMT: Beyond the tragedy of at least 27 lives lost and 300 people wounded in Thursday's explosions in southeastern Iran (see yesterday's updates), there was the curiosity of the Iranian regime trying to resurrect the "normal" after the event.

Initially, Iran's state media had blamed the Baluch insurgent group Jundullah --- who did indeed claim responsibility --- for the two suicide bombings. Then some official somewhere realised that this would expose the recent narrative that, with a crackdown on Jundullah and the executive Abdolmalek Rigi, order and security had been restored.

And so the media line was revised: the bombings were no longer the work of Jundullah but of some mysterious "hard-line" Sunni group. "Normal" would come in the allegation --- for this is always the allegation --- that "the US, Israel, and some European countries" (the Revolutionary Guard's Yadollah Javani) were behind "terrorist attacks...trained, financed and equipped form beyond the borders" (Deputy Minister of Interior Ali Abdollahi). Washington even hid its perfidy behind the false "humanitarian gesture" of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's condemnation of the bombings.

But this was not only the curiosity of the "normal". For the not-exactly-normal incident in Zahedan might serve the regime by deflecting attention from life that is not-exactly-normal elsewhere. With Iran back to work today, one question is whether bazaar merchants in Tehran and Tabriz join in or whether some stoppage or strike continues.

And there is the bread-and-butter conflict within the establishment. The New York Times has taken notice in an article, "Iran’s President Now Aims at Rivals Among Conservatives" --- which might also should have considered, "Iran's Conservatives Now Aim at the President" --- and adds this information. "Moderate conservative" Morteza Nabavi said in an interview published Friday, "“Now that they [the Government] think they have ejected the reformists, maybe they think it is time to remove their principalist opponents.”

Nabavi also indicated that part of the conflict stems from the beliefs of Ahmadinejad and allies over the return with Shia's "disappeared" or "hidden Imam: “These people say they have direct contact with the 12th imam so they can lead us. This is not just a matter of opposition to government by the clergy but something much deeper.”

The Latest from Iran (10 July): The Plot Against the President

1915 GMT: Thanks to readers for keeping the news and analysis coming in. We're taking a personal break today (between you and me, it's the daughter's birthday party) and will be back with a full service from Sunday morning.

1910 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Behzad Arab Gol, a member of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s election campaign team, has been released from prison on a bail of more than $100,000 after more than six months in detention.

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Iran Document: Detained Student Leader Tavakoli on 18 Tir & Protest (6 July)
Iran Analysis: Assessing the Bazaar Strikes & a Political Twist (Verde)
The Latest from Iran (9 July): Remembering 18 Tir?

1320 GMT: Heat? What Heat? The Government's holidays on Sunday and Monday for "excessive heat" seems to have disappeared for factory workers.

The Iranian Labor News Agency quotes the head of the Tehran Work and Social Affairs Organization, who says factories will be open even though government offices will be closed

An EA correspondent asks, "If the new holidays were due to hot weather, why would you close down offices but not factories whose workers would be affected more by the heat?"

1315 GMT: Remembering. Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that 2000 people were at Beheshte Zahra cemetery yesterday to remember loved ones, including those killed in post-election conflict.

1305 GMT: Supreme Leader "Justice and Peace --- Unless You're America". Meeting Iranian officials and ambassadors to commemorate Eid-al-Mab'ath, the day when Muhammad was appointed to prophethood, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei offered greetings of "justice, peace, and security for all humans".

That is, with one exception. The Supreme Leader said Islam was opposed to "corrupt" Washington, with its huge budget to wage wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and to help Israel maintain instability in the Middle East.

1105 GMT: Holidays Because of Weather Heat or Political Heat? Peyke Iran claims The head of Iran's national weather service has said his unit did not advise holidays on Sunday and Monday because of high temperatures: the "weather is no hotter than normal".

Hmm.... maybe it's the Government that is especially sensitive to the heat these days.

1100 GMT: The Right Civil Disobedience. Iranian political scientist Ramin Jahanbegloo, now living abroad, talks to Rah-e-Sabz about protest and "ending the culture of violence". Assessing opposition strategy, he declares, "Using violence as an excuse does not justify it."

0920 GMT: The Battle Within. Conservative politician Morteza Nabavi has said that President Ahmadinejad's supporters "promote an Islam without clergy".

MP Younes Assadi has warned that, if Minister of Welfare Sadegh Mahsouli "does not change his actions", he will be called to account before the Majlis during next three months.

0900 GMT: International Development. Islamic Republic News Agency highlights the signing of six agreements in New Delhi between Iranian and Indian delegations. The pacts cover cooperation in new and renewable energy, small industry, science and technology, and pulp and paper production.

0855 GMT: Labour Front. Rah-e-Sabz claims that 200 drivers at the Tehran and Suburbs Bus Company (Sherkate Vahed) are on the verge of dismissal.

0715 GMT: Oil Squeeze. Reihaneh Mazaheri, writing in Mianeh, reports from traders that Iran is discounting oil between $3 and $7 per barrel to prop up sales amidst sanctions and reduction in demand.

0710 GMT: Power Cut. Rah-e-Sabz claims that some parts of Tehran have gone 12 hours without electricity.

0700 GMT: Larijani v. Ahmadinejad. Back to our special analysis of the rising challenge to the President --- Agence France Presse has noticed something is up, quoting from a speech by Ali Larijani on Friday in Karaj:

If we want to stand up to our enemies, we need to improve the economy. Iran has big oil and gas reserves -- the way to use that wealth is not by handing out money to people but by using it to develop the nation's productive capacity. Social justice... means providing universal employment not giving monthly handouts to stop people starving....

How can you ask an ordinary villager to respect the law, if politicians don't?...We in Parliament will not allow anybody...to disregard the law because that's an act of rebellion and a shameful violation.

0610 GMT: We begin this morning with an exclusive report and analysis, based on information from a range of sources, "The Plot to Remove Ahmadinejad, Act II".

Meanwhile, after an 18 Tir which passed relatively quietly, even though it was the anniversary of the 1999 university demonstrations....

The Bazaar Strikes

The bazaars will now effectively be closed from this past Thursday to Monday --- the Government, because of "extreme heat", has added Sunday and Monday as public holidays to today's religious holiday of Mab'as.

Robert Tait offers an overview and analysis of the situation in an article for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

Mousavi's Moves

In what has been a most active week for Mir Hossein Mousavi --- even if the effect of his moves is unknown at this point --- the opposition figure has added a statement on "The Diversity of the Green Movement", rejecting the need for a leader. He has met with reformist students to suggest, that if those who caused the catastrophe of 18 Tir (the suppression of the 1999 demonstrations) were punished, the post-election attacks on the universities dormitories would not have occurred.

In Rah-e-Sabz, Mehdi Jalali asks, "Do we want a secular Mousavi?" Jalali asserts that Mousavi could never be secular but points to his three promises of freedom of expression, freedom of assembly and organisation, and free elections as a basis for mutual trust.

Political Prisoner Watch

Video has been posted of a telephone interview with recently-released human rights activist Narges Mohammadi, who claims she was abused and put in solitary confinement. She had a pulmonary embolism in prison and is still very weak.