The Latest from Iran (23 July): Receding Authority

1130 GMT: New Media Nonsense. A quick note to The International Herald Tribune: if  you are going to shell out money for a guest columnist to discuss the political effects of new media in the Middle East and Iran, you might to go to someone who is actually involved with those new media. Otherwise you get declarations like this:

We must face the fact that all the new media and hundreds of thousands of young bloggers from Morocco to Iran have not triggered a single significant or lasting change in Arab or Iranian political culture. Not a single one. Zero.

(I should add that I am a great admirer of Rami Khouri, who wrote the column. To my knowledge, however, his primary connection with the subject on which he is pronouncing is as an observer of "Millions of young people communicate with each other digitally, express their views and identities, and sometimes mobilize for causes as disparate as promoting a new movie, arranging a dance party, sharing photos or bemoaning a tired old dictator".)

NEW Iran Interview: Detained US Hiker’s Mother “I Wish I Could Hear Her Voice”
Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader & the Disappearing Fatwa (Verde)
The Latest from Iran (22 July): Confusing Regime

1030 GMT: Talking Tough. Minister of Commerce Mehdi Ghazanfari has warned against any plan for the inspection of the country's cargo ships: "Iran reserves the right to respond to inspections as any such attempts will be a move beyond the sanctions resolution."

0855 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert. Press TV, drawing from Mehr News, reports:

Iran ranks sixth among the world's countries based on inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) performance, the latest report released by a UN agency shows.

New data released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) show that Iran attracted more than $3 billion of direct investment from abroad in 2009, which is twice the amount of the previous year. This is despite the fact that global FDI inflows dropped during 2009 as compared to the previous year.

The UNCTAD ranking is for the year 2009, the most recent year available, and examines the economies of 141 economies.

The link to the "Country Fact Sheet" for the report is currently broken. Other reports have indicated that foreign direct investment into Iran has plummeted in recent months.

0605 GMT: Declaration of the Day. Meeting the son of the late Grand Ayatollah Fadlallah on Thursday, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad pronounced, "All the injustices and brutalities in the world today will soon be eradicated with the awakening of all nations."

No comment.

0530 GMT: Three days after it started, the affair of the Supreme Leader's "disappearing" fatwa is still inconclusive. There has no been explanation for why his declaration --- "I am the Rule of the Prophet" --- suddenly showed up and was then withdrawn from most of the official Iranian media.

Mr Verde has done an excellent job at rounding up the political and religious possibilities, none of which are promising for Ayatollah Khamenei's authority. I will go a step further: amidst all the challenges within the Iranian system, the confusion points to two aspects:

1. The Supreme Leader wanted to bring senior clerics, many of whom have been disquieted by the growing conflict amongst "the establishment", in line by asserting his leadership. The fatwa was the wrong move, however: far from reassuring the clerics of Khamenei's authority, it soon provoked more concern. So it had to be pulled back.

And/or...

2. There is a rift even within Khamenei's inner circle. One group pushed this initiative --- likely with Khamenei's assent, but possibly going farther than the Supreme Leader might have expected --- another pushed back.

Speculative, I know. So maybe it's best to start by saying that the outcome of this week is not clarity but confusion. And, as Mr Verde has driven home, it is not strength but weakness.

Meanwhile....

The Universities Fight

In another pointer to the challenges for and possibly to the Supreme Leader, conservative politician Morteza Nabavi has said that Khamenei has left the resolution of the conflict over Islamic Azad University to the judiciary.

Political Prisoner Watch

Zahra Rahnavard, activist and wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, http://www.rahesabz.net/story/20011/ of labour activist Mansur Osanloo, who has been detained for three years.

The "Discussions with the US" Diversion

The curious episode of Iran's claims that it has been approached by Washington for talks --- revelation or propaganda? --- trundles on. Reformist MP Mostafa Kavakebian has said there should be no preconditions on discussions.

Trouble with the Water

The Governor of Tehran Province, Morteza Tamaddon, has insisted that the Minister of Health is responsible for the problems with the capital's polluted water supply.

Comments

[Catherine]

Iran ends expansion of government offices in Tehran
Islamic Republic of Iran has banned the establishment of any new government organizations or posts in the capital. According to a new government by-law, all new government organizations are responsible for moving their volunteer forces out of the capital within a month.

Seeing is believeing, but for what it's worth: http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/07/iran-ends-expansion-of-go.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/07/iran-ends...

[Catherine]

Friday Prayer Purge

One year after Iran’s head of the Expediency Council Hashemi Rafsanjani delivered what became his last Friday prayer sermon - till today - 60 other Friday prayer leaders seem to be on their way out as well. According to seyyed Reza Taghavi, the head of the Friday Prayer Leaders’ Policymaking Council, “More than 60 Friday prayer leaders are scheduled to go into retirement this summer.” This would be the largest blanket change in the composition of Friday prayer leaders and supreme leader’s representatives in provinces since the Islamic revolution of 1979.
More: http://www.roozonline.com/english/news/newsitem/article/2010/july/23//time-to-change-the-friday-prayer-leaders.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.roozonline.com/english/news/newsitem...

[Catherine]

22 Female Political Prisoners Receive a Total of 110 Years in Prison
http://www.rhairan.us/en/?p=5798" rel="nofollow">http://www.rhairan.us/en/?p=5798

[Catherine]

Scott,
RE One group pushed this initiative — likely with Khamenei’s assent, but possibly going farther than the Supreme Leader might have expected — another pushed back.

Maybe Khamenei is a closet Obama fan and wanted his own "band of rivals" too? :-)

[ScottLucas11]

Imitation is the highest form of flattery....

[Catherine]

RE: 1130 GMT: New Media Nonsense.

I read Rami Khouri's Op-Ed in the Daily Star two days ago (http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_ID=10&article_ID=117253&categ_id=5" rel="nofollow">http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition...) and I was very surprised at how he could overlook the enormous impact bloggers and facebook users in, for example, Iran and Egypt have had on the political climate and the relationship between people and power in their countries.

But what first attracted me to his piece was the title (Aid the jailer or the prisoner, not both) and this bit later on:

One cannot take seriously the United States or any other Western government that funds political activism by young Arabs while it simultaneously provides funds and guns that help cement the power of the very same Arab governments the young social and political activists target for change.

Feeding both the jailer and the prisoner is not a sustainable or sensible policy. I would not be surprised if some wise-guy young Arab soon sends a tweet to Hilary Clinton saying, “you’re either with us, or you’re with the security state.”

Here I think he's right, but the conclusion he draws, "grasp more accurately the fact that young people use the digital media mainly for entertainment and vicarious, escapist self-expression", is once again off the mark (imo).

[Catherine]

Mousavi is really feeling his oats these days. While addressing professors from the Islamic Association of Students, according to the Kaleme website, he quipped:
“A head of Friday prayers has stated that Imam Mahdi [the revered and hidden Shiite Imam] supports the Guardian Council’s filtering [of candidates in elections].” Mousavi mockingly added, “We are waiting to see how he was so certain about the [hidden] Imam’s approval regarding the vetting process and the injustices that have taken place against the candidates during the vetting process?”

He also criticised the “organised assault” on human sciences in Iran’s universities: “Prohibiting and placing limitations for these fields of science blinded them with respect to the rapid rate of change in the world and in their own societies and compromised their regimes’ flexibility in the face of the social developments in their countries and the world. One of the reasons for the downfall of these regimes was the lack of scientists and theoreticians in social sciences.”
More: http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/jul/23/2183" rel="nofollow">http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/jul/2...

[Catherine]

Iran appoints new ambassador to Iraq

Hassan Danaifar, an important figure in Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps who resents the Kurdish inclination towards separatism, is Iran's new ambassador to Iraq http://gulfnews.com/news/region/iran/iran-appoints-new-ambassador-to-iraq-1.658358" rel="nofollow">http://gulfnews.com/news/region/iran/iran-appoi...

[Arshama]

@ 1130 GMT: New Media Nonsense

MP Ali Aghazadeh, member of National Security Council in Majlis: Countless new sites need more control by security and itelligence forces: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=19534" rel="nofollow">http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=19534

[Arshama]

The "Leadership House" (Khamenei's offices), the dark room of Iran's politics, presenting Asghar Hejazi, Vahid, and Mojtaba Khamenei (FA), recommended: http://www.rahesabz.net/story/19752/" rel="nofollow">http://www.rahesabz.net/story/19752/

[Arshama]

MP Mohammad-Reza Khabbaz: No money left in Iran's currency reserves:
http://www.radiofarda.com/archive/news/latest/143/143.html?id=2107946" rel="nofollow">http://www.radiofarda.com/archive/news/latest/1...

[Arshama]

Sanctions Watch

EU to impose tougher sanctions on Iran http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jul/23/eu-impose-sanctions-iran" rel="nofollow">http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jul/23/eu-...

[Dissected News]

More on the "getting ready to bomb Iran" front: Leon Hader (Huffington Post) writes this:

"Based on my own reading between the lines of news reports and analyses and the deconstructing of the body language of American and Israeli officials, my guess- and it is good as yours! - is that a combination of anticipated changes in Israeli and American politics coupled with regional and international developments that have weakened Iran, may be creating the conditions for a decision in support for military action sometime this year. That could help answer the questions raised by Mark Lynch in http://foreignpolicy.com" rel="nofollow">foreignpolicy.com ("Why Put an Attack on Iraq Back on the Table?") and by Bret Stephens in the Wall Street Journal ("Why Israel Hasn't Bomb Iran Yet?")"

http://enduringamerica.com/2010/07/23/the-latest-from-iran-23-july-receding-authority/" rel="nofollow">http://enduringamerica.com/2010/07/23/the-lates...

[Dissected News]

Oh, and by the way, how many governments has traditional media toppled?

[WitteKr]

RE 0855 GMT: "Iran ranks sixth among the world’s countries based on inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) performance, the latest report released by a UN agency shows." Should read: DROPS - not ranks - to sixth... I'm no economy buff, but from UNCTAD statistics I understand Iran ranked 3rd in 2007, 1st in 2008 en 6th in 2009.
(But don't ask me what FDI really means :-)

[Arshama]

Prisoners Watch

Shirin Ebadi reported in an interview with Jaras about more than 800 political prisoners in Iran, mainly journalists, students, feminists, HR activists:
http://www.rahesabz.net/story/20033/" rel="nofollow">http://www.rahesabz.net/story/20033/

[Karoliend]

mmm, Iran doesn't rank 6th but 120th in the FDI performance index (out of 141 countries)
nonetheless, it's an improvement compared to previous years
the link is http://www.unctad.org/Templates/Page.asp?intItemID=2441&lang=1" rel="nofollow">http://www.unctad.org/Templates/Page.asp?intIte...

[Catherine]

James,
Your question got me thinking - didn't a huge anti-Mossadegh campaign planted by the CIA in the Iranian press greatly contribute to the 1953 coup that ousted him? There must be other examples as well. It's an interesting topic to pursue.