The Latest from Iran (23 July): Receding Authority

1130 GMT: New Media Nonsense. A quick note to The International Herald Tribune: if  you are going to shell out money for a guest columnist to discuss the political effects of new media in the Middle East and Iran, you might to go to someone who is actually involved with those new media. Otherwise you get declarations like this:

We must face the fact that all the new media and hundreds of thousands of young bloggers from Morocco to Iran have not triggered a single significant or lasting change in Arab or Iranian political culture. Not a single one. Zero.

(I should add that I am a great admirer of Rami Khouri, who wrote the column. To my knowledge, however, his primary connection with the subject on which he is pronouncing is as an observer of "Millions of young people communicate with each other digitally, express their views and identities, and sometimes mobilize for causes as disparate as promoting a new movie, arranging a dance party, sharing photos or bemoaning a tired old dictator".)

NEW Iran Interview: Detained US Hiker’s Mother “I Wish I Could Hear Her Voice”
Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader & the Disappearing Fatwa (Verde)
The Latest from Iran (22 July): Confusing Regime

1030 GMT: Talking Tough. Minister of Commerce Mehdi Ghazanfari has warned against any plan for the inspection of the country's cargo ships: "Iran reserves the right to respond to inspections as any such attempts will be a move beyond the sanctions resolution."

0855 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert. Press TV, drawing from Mehr News, reports:

Iran ranks sixth among the world's countries based on inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) performance, the latest report released by a UN agency shows.

New data released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) show that Iran attracted more than $3 billion of direct investment from abroad in 2009, which is twice the amount of the previous year. This is despite the fact that global FDI inflows dropped during 2009 as compared to the previous year.

The UNCTAD ranking is for the year 2009, the most recent year available, and examines the economies of 141 economies.

The link to the "Country Fact Sheet" for the report is currently broken. Other reports have indicated that foreign direct investment into Iran has plummeted in recent months.

0605 GMT: Declaration of the Day. Meeting the son of the late Grand Ayatollah Fadlallah on Thursday, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad pronounced, "All the injustices and brutalities in the world today will soon be eradicated with the awakening of all nations."

No comment.

0530 GMT: Three days after it started, the affair of the Supreme Leader's "disappearing" fatwa is still inconclusive. There has no been explanation for why his declaration --- "I am the Rule of the Prophet" --- suddenly showed up and was then withdrawn from most of the official Iranian media.

Mr Verde has done an excellent job at rounding up the political and religious possibilities, none of which are promising for Ayatollah Khamenei's authority. I will go a step further: amidst all the challenges within the Iranian system, the confusion points to two aspects:

1. The Supreme Leader wanted to bring senior clerics, many of whom have been disquieted by the growing conflict amongst "the establishment", in line by asserting his leadership. The fatwa was the wrong move, however: far from reassuring the clerics of Khamenei's authority, it soon provoked more concern. So it had to be pulled back.

And/or...

2. There is a rift even within Khamenei's inner circle. One group pushed this initiative --- likely with Khamenei's assent, but possibly going farther than the Supreme Leader might have expected --- another pushed back.

Speculative, I know. So maybe it's best to start by saying that the outcome of this week is not clarity but confusion. And, as Mr Verde has driven home, it is not strength but weakness.

Meanwhile....

The Universities Fight

In another pointer to the challenges for and possibly to the Supreme Leader, conservative politician Morteza Nabavi has said that Khamenei has left the resolution of the conflict over Islamic Azad University to the judiciary.

Political Prisoner Watch

Zahra Rahnavard, activist and wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, http://www.rahesabz.net/story/20011/ of labour activist Mansur Osanloo, who has been detained for three years.

The "Discussions with the US" Diversion

The curious episode of Iran's claims that it has been approached by Washington for talks --- revelation or propaganda? --- trundles on. Reformist MP Mostafa Kavakebian has said there should be no preconditions on discussions.

Trouble with the Water

The Governor of Tehran Province, Morteza Tamaddon, has insisted that the Minister of Health is responsible for the problems with the capital's polluted water supply.

UPDATED Middle East: CNN Senior Editor Fired over Twitter Remark about Lebanon's Sheikh Fadlallah

UPDATE 1545 GMT: Well, well, it looks like the British Ambassador to Lebanon, Frances Guy, could be in the firing line after her note on Grand Ayatollah Fadlallah. An Israeli Foreign Ministry official has told the website YNet News that it would be "interesting" to see how the British Foreign Office reacts.

The Foreign Office line with Tim Marshall of Sky News is that Guy had "profound disagreements with the Sheiks views on attacking Israel". While CNN's Nasr had praised a "Hezbollah Giant", the British Ambassador only praised Fadlallah for his spiritual work and interfaith dialogue.

UPDATE 1500 GMT: Analysts are noting, amidst the furour over Octavia Nasr's comment on Grand Ayatollah Fadlallah, that both Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Lebanese President Sa'ad Hariri have offered praise for the late cleric.

What had caught my attention earlier this week, however, was the public note posted by Britain's Ambassador to Lebanon, Frances Guy, in her blog on the Foreign Office's website: "The Passing of Decent Men". Guy wrote:

When you visited [Fadlallah] you could be sure of a real debate, a respectful argument and you knew you would leave his presence feeling a better person. That for me is the real effect of a true man of religion; leaving an impact on everyone he meets, no matter what their faith....The world needs more men like him willing to reach out across faiths, acknowledging the reality of the modern world and daring to confront old constraints. May he rest in peace.

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For now I am going to refrain on comment about this episode, leaving it to readers to make assessments both of the case and of its significance. I do want to note that, following Octavia Nasr both in her work for CNN and her use of social media, I have found her a responsible, thoughtful, and engaging journalist. I also note Rami Khouri's perspective on Grand Ayatollah Fadlallah, the leading Shi'a cleric in Lebanon, as a counterpart to other representations of Fadlallah's religious and political views.

From Mediaite:

CNN’s Senior Editor of Mideast Affairs Octavia Nasr is leaving the company following the controversy caused by her tweet in praise of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah.

Mediaite has the internal memo, which says “we believe that her credibility in her position as senior editor for Middle Eastern affairs has been compromised.”

Nasr tweeted this weekend: “Sad to hear of the passing of Sayyed Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah… One of Hezbollah’s giants I respect a lot.”

After a blog post expanding on her position, CNN promised the issue was “serious” and would “be dealt with accordingly.” That’s apparently her exit from CNN. Here’s an internal memo obtained by Mediaite:

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