UPDATED Egypt: Mubarak's Not-So-Secret Cancer?

UPDATE 27 July: President Mubarak, in a thank-you letter to the spiritual leader of the Israeli religious party Shas, has said he is in great shape and "fully recovered". Rabbi Ovadia Yosef had sent a "Get Well" card two weeks ago.



UPDATE 24 July: Ten days after officials said he would be his attendance at the African Union summit in Uganda would demonstrate his good health, President Mubarak has cancelled the trip. Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif will now represent Cairo.

On Wednesday, presidential spokesman Suleiman Awwad had again dismissed reports that Mubarak was ill, saying staff were "out of breath" trying to keep up with his schedule.

UPDATE 19 July: The Mubarak cancer story has now made the pages of The Washington Times: "The 82-year-old Egyptian leader is thought by most Western intelligence agencies to be dying from terminal cancer affecting his stomach and pancreas."

UPDATE 13 July: As-Safir reports that Mubarak is going to Germany this week for another round of medical treatment. The Egyptian President had been scheduled to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas in advance of Saturday's arrival by US envoy George Mitchell.

UPDATE 1600 GMT: A twist in the tale....

The Jerusalem Post, where we first saw the story this morning, has now removed any reference to cancer and posted the headline, "Mubarak Has Fallen Ill". The original Al-Quds al-Arabi story does appear to refer to medical tests in relation to a tumour.

EA has had reliable reports that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is suffering from cancer, raising questions over the country's political future. Egyptian authorities have been keen to keep the news from emerging, but the wall started to crumble when Mubarak had treatment in Germany --- the ostensible reason was gall-bladder surgery --- in March.

Now the London-based Al-Quds Al-Arabi has brought out the story. Mubarak has been in Paris, nominally to meet French President Sarkozy and Lebanese Prime Minister Sa'ad Hariri, but the newspaper says he has also undergone a round of medical tests.

Middle East Inside Line: Turkey-Hamas-Israel, Netanyahu Denies "Map", No Russia Missiles to Iran?

Turkey, Hamas, and Israel: Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, having gone to Damascus for discussions with Syrian President Bashar Assad and Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, also reportedly met Hamas political bureau chief Khaled Meshaal on Monday. They spoke about the future of the reconciliation talks between Fatah and Hamas and the continuation of efforts to lift the siege on Gaza.

Meanwhile, Israel took a  positive step towards Ankara. "In light of the calm in Turkey and the absence of large-scale anti-Israeli demonstrations," Israel's Counter Terrorism Bureau lifted a severe warning to Israelis to avoid travel to Turkey.

Middle East Inside Line: Syria-Turkey-Lebanon Condemn Israel, Netanyahu Map “Gap”, Israel’s Iron Dome System

However, this is not the end of the story. The Israeli Foreign Ministry requested assurances from Turkey that three ships belonging to the Turkish organisation IHH, backer of May's Freedom Flotilla will not be used for another attempt to run the blockade on Gaza. The Turkish daily Hurriyet reported that in past cases, Israel has required assurances only from the organizers rather than the Government.

Israel Denies Map for Talks with Palestine: The Prime Minister's Office stated on Tuesday that Benjamin Netanyahu had not presented a map of a possible border agreement and land swaps in recent discussions over Palestine, as alleged by the London-based Al-Sharq al-Awsat.

Russia Not Selling S-300s to Iran?: According to Interfax, Russian military official Alexander Fomin on Tuesday, without referring to the S-300 by name, but pledged Moscow would desist from supplying “large missile systems” to Iran in accordance with the sanctions backed by Russia at the United Nations.

Israel welcomed Moscow's statement.

Israel's "Close" Relations with Greece: Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou is coming to Israel on Wednesday. This will be the first visit to Israel by a Greek prime minister since Konstantinos Mitsotakis came in 1992.

Ahead of the visit, The Jerusalem Post reports:

People in government said there was no doubt that the recent tension with Turkey has led to a warming of the relationship between Israel and some of Turkey’s historic rivals, such as Greece, Cyprus and Bulgaria. The Cypriot and Bulgarian foreign ministers paid visits to Israel earlier this year.

According to one diplomatic official, the Greeks – looking at the Israeli-Turkish, andTurkish-US tensions – are realizing that strategic alliances in the region are changing, and that this might be a good time to get closer to Israel as a way of warming ties with Washington.

When Israel had a close strategic alliance with Turkey, the official said, Athens gave up any thought of forging such an alliance with Israel.

But now the situation with Ankara has changed, and Athens is seeing more opportunities with Israel.

Middle East Inside Line: Syria-Turkey-Lebanon Condemn Israel, Netanyahu Map "Gap", Israel's Iron Dome System

Syria-Turkey-Lebanon Condemning Israel: Syria and its "greatest hope" Turkey again condemned Israel over its deadly intervention against the Freedom Flotilla on 31 May. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri were both present in Damascus as leaders called on the international community to add more pressure for an international probe and to urge Israel to lift the blockade on Gaza.

What Is "The Gap" Between Israel & Palestine?: Following the meeting this weekend between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Egyptian counterpart Hosni Mubarak, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit said more work needs to be done to bridge the gap between Israel and the Palestinians before they can move to direct peace talks.

Israel-Palestine Analysis: What is the Obama Administration Seeking?
Middle East Inside Line: Israel-Palestine Moves in Cairo, Netanyahu-Lieberman Feud, No Smoking Pipes for Gaza Women

What is that gap? According to the London-based A-Sharq al-Awsat, Netanyahu showed Mubarak a map outlining his vision for a final settlement with the Palestinians. The Egyptian President refused publication of this because it is far from the demands of Palestinians for a future state based on 1967 lines with agreed land swaps. Mubarak reportedly told Netanyahu to redraft the map.

Israel's Iron Dome Defense System & Its Cost: The "Iron Dome" short- and medium-range rocket-defense system successfully completed its last round of tests Monday, the Defense Ministry and the Israel Defense Forces said.

There may be a longer-term issue with the system, however. Last week, the government took a decision to cut 2.7 billion shekels ($700 million) from the defense budget. Some IDF generals in IDF argue that it is better to focus on offense using air forces to hit strategic targets rather than deploying defense batteries, but Defense Minister Ehud Barak promised Monday that the Iron Dome batteries would soon be operational.

Currently, Israel has two batteries, each costing between 40 and 50 million shekels. Israel is soon going to receive a special aid package of $250 million from the US, a sum that is meant to cover the purchase of up to nine Iron Dome batteries. However, estimates speak of a need for at least 20 batteries to cover the Galilee and the Negev from missile threats from Lebanon and Gaza. Radar systems and interceptor missiles also have to be deployed.

Al-Qaeda Targets Arab League: The group's second man, Ayman al-Zawahiri, bombarded Arab leaders for having "surrendered" to Israel after their last summit in March. In the video, he said:

Arabs met in Sirte, (Libya), and they only came out with what they call strategic peace choice. What strategic peace choice, when they are sending a message of surrender to Israel that 'We have given up, so do whatever you like in Palestine'?

UPDATED Middle East: CNN Senior Editor Fired over Twitter Remark about Lebanon's Sheikh Fadlallah

UPDATE 1545 GMT: Well, well, it looks like the British Ambassador to Lebanon, Frances Guy, could be in the firing line after her note on Grand Ayatollah Fadlallah. An Israeli Foreign Ministry official has told the website YNet News that it would be "interesting" to see how the British Foreign Office reacts.

The Foreign Office line with Tim Marshall of Sky News is that Guy had "profound disagreements with the Sheiks views on attacking Israel". While CNN's Nasr had praised a "Hezbollah Giant", the British Ambassador only praised Fadlallah for his spiritual work and interfaith dialogue.

UPDATE 1500 GMT: Analysts are noting, amidst the furour over Octavia Nasr's comment on Grand Ayatollah Fadlallah, that both Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Lebanese President Sa'ad Hariri have offered praise for the late cleric.

What had caught my attention earlier this week, however, was the public note posted by Britain's Ambassador to Lebanon, Frances Guy, in her blog on the Foreign Office's website: "The Passing of Decent Men". Guy wrote:

When you visited [Fadlallah] you could be sure of a real debate, a respectful argument and you knew you would leave his presence feeling a better person. That for me is the real effect of a true man of religion; leaving an impact on everyone he meets, no matter what their faith....The world needs more men like him willing to reach out across faiths, acknowledging the reality of the modern world and daring to confront old constraints. May he rest in peace.

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For now I am going to refrain on comment about this episode, leaving it to readers to make assessments both of the case and of its significance. I do want to note that, following Octavia Nasr both in her work for CNN and her use of social media, I have found her a responsible, thoughtful, and engaging journalist. I also note Rami Khouri's perspective on Grand Ayatollah Fadlallah, the leading Shi'a cleric in Lebanon, as a counterpart to other representations of Fadlallah's religious and political views.

From Mediaite:

CNN’s Senior Editor of Mideast Affairs Octavia Nasr is leaving the company following the controversy caused by her tweet in praise of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah.

Mediaite has the internal memo, which says “we believe that her credibility in her position as senior editor for Middle Eastern affairs has been compromised.”

Nasr tweeted this weekend: “Sad to hear of the passing of Sayyed Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah… One of Hezbollah’s giants I respect a lot.”

After a blog post expanding on her position, CNN promised the issue was “serious” and would “be dealt with accordingly.” That’s apparently her exit from CNN. Here’s an internal memo obtained by Mediaite:

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