UPDATED Egypt: Mubarak's Not-So-Secret Cancer?

UPDATE 27 July: President Mubarak, in a thank-you letter to the spiritual leader of the Israeli religious party Shas, has said he is in great shape and "fully recovered". Rabbi Ovadia Yosef had sent a "Get Well" card two weeks ago.



UPDATE 24 July: Ten days after officials said he would be his attendance at the African Union summit in Uganda would demonstrate his good health, President Mubarak has cancelled the trip. Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif will now represent Cairo.

On Wednesday, presidential spokesman Suleiman Awwad had again dismissed reports that Mubarak was ill, saying staff were "out of breath" trying to keep up with his schedule.

UPDATE 19 July: The Mubarak cancer story has now made the pages of The Washington Times: "The 82-year-old Egyptian leader is thought by most Western intelligence agencies to be dying from terminal cancer affecting his stomach and pancreas."

UPDATE 13 July: As-Safir reports that Mubarak is going to Germany this week for another round of medical treatment. The Egyptian President had been scheduled to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas in advance of Saturday's arrival by US envoy George Mitchell.

UPDATE 1600 GMT: A twist in the tale....

The Jerusalem Post, where we first saw the story this morning, has now removed any reference to cancer and posted the headline, "Mubarak Has Fallen Ill". The original Al-Quds al-Arabi story does appear to refer to medical tests in relation to a tumour.

EA has had reliable reports that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is suffering from cancer, raising questions over the country's political future. Egyptian authorities have been keen to keep the news from emerging, but the wall started to crumble when Mubarak had treatment in Germany --- the ostensible reason was gall-bladder surgery --- in March.

Now the London-based Al-Quds Al-Arabi has brought out the story. Mubarak has been in Paris, nominally to meet French President Sarkozy and Lebanese Prime Minister Sa'ad Hariri, but the newspaper says he has also undergone a round of medical tests.

MENA House: "Official Statements" on Mubarak's Health; 50 Years of Egyptian TV

It is official: Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is "fine" and "very active".

At a press conference in Orba Palace, Egyptian Presidential Spokesman Soliman Awad addressed foreign reports on Mubarak's health. The conference was arranged after The Washington Times published that sources from "international intelligence agencies" claiming that President Hosni Mubarak had less than one year to live. [Editor's Note: EA had published the reports about Mubarak's cancer, claimed to be terminal, two weeks ago.]

Awad said, "As a diplomat, I am used to dealing with rumours" and that only God knows when the life of an individual will end. He went on further to say that "

Official statements are rarely made regarding President Mubarak's health. Even when the news filtered out through London-based Arabic newspapers and EA and then was splashed by The Washington Times, Egyptian domestic news and evening discussion programmes did not touch the subject. Only when the official statement was made, did presenter Mona el Shazly reassure the Egyptian public that the President's health is fine.

The "official statement" also followed claims that, in light of the reports on Mubarak's poor health, Israeli Minister Arieh Eldad advised Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu not to rush negotiations with the Egyptian President as brokering a deal with Egypt in the circumstances would be a mistake.

So the question is begged: was the official statement made to establish the "truth of the situation" or to dispel inaccurate rumours? Was this for economic stability? After all, in summer 2008, news raced around the streets of Egypt that President Mubarak had died.  The response: shares were sold for pennies and there was widespread panic. 

On a lighter side note, Happy 50th Anniversary to Egyptian TV --- on 21 July 1960, at exactly 7 p.m., Cairo went on-air.

Here's a short clip showing the birth of television in Egypt, with all-time greats Omar Sharif, Kamal el Shenawy, Ahmed Ramzi, Roshdi Abaza and his wife Samia Gamal.  The list goes on...

Middle East Inside Line: Syria-Turkey-Lebanon Condemn Israel, Netanyahu Map "Gap", Israel's Iron Dome System

Syria-Turkey-Lebanon Condemning Israel: Syria and its "greatest hope" Turkey again condemned Israel over its deadly intervention against the Freedom Flotilla on 31 May. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri were both present in Damascus as leaders called on the international community to add more pressure for an international probe and to urge Israel to lift the blockade on Gaza.

What Is "The Gap" Between Israel & Palestine?: Following the meeting this weekend between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Egyptian counterpart Hosni Mubarak, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit said more work needs to be done to bridge the gap between Israel and the Palestinians before they can move to direct peace talks.

Israel-Palestine Analysis: What is the Obama Administration Seeking?
Middle East Inside Line: Israel-Palestine Moves in Cairo, Netanyahu-Lieberman Feud, No Smoking Pipes for Gaza Women

What is that gap? According to the London-based A-Sharq al-Awsat, Netanyahu showed Mubarak a map outlining his vision for a final settlement with the Palestinians. The Egyptian President refused publication of this because it is far from the demands of Palestinians for a future state based on 1967 lines with agreed land swaps. Mubarak reportedly told Netanyahu to redraft the map.

Israel's Iron Dome Defense System & Its Cost: The "Iron Dome" short- and medium-range rocket-defense system successfully completed its last round of tests Monday, the Defense Ministry and the Israel Defense Forces said.

There may be a longer-term issue with the system, however. Last week, the government took a decision to cut 2.7 billion shekels ($700 million) from the defense budget. Some IDF generals in IDF argue that it is better to focus on offense using air forces to hit strategic targets rather than deploying defense batteries, but Defense Minister Ehud Barak promised Monday that the Iron Dome batteries would soon be operational.

Currently, Israel has two batteries, each costing between 40 and 50 million shekels. Israel is soon going to receive a special aid package of $250 million from the US, a sum that is meant to cover the purchase of up to nine Iron Dome batteries. However, estimates speak of a need for at least 20 batteries to cover the Galilee and the Negev from missile threats from Lebanon and Gaza. Radar systems and interceptor missiles also have to be deployed.

Al-Qaeda Targets Arab League: The group's second man, Ayman al-Zawahiri, bombarded Arab leaders for having "surrendered" to Israel after their last summit in March. In the video, he said:

Arabs met in Sirte, (Libya), and they only came out with what they call strategic peace choice. What strategic peace choice, when they are sending a message of surrender to Israel that 'We have given up, so do whatever you like in Palestine'?

Israel-Palestine Analysis: What is the Obama Administration Seeking?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyCt4dQRvtA[/youtube]

Middle East Inside Line: Israel-Palestine Moves in Cairo, Israel’s Conversion Bill, No Smoking Pipes for Gaza Women

Time is passing and the hopes of millions, encouraged by the November 2008 US elections, are melting away in the Middle East. The "extending a hand to unclenched fists" in President Obama's Inaugural speech, the declarations on democracy, freedom, humanity, and religion in the Cairo speech of June 2009, and dozens of proclamations on "Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace and security" have started to lose their aura.

Before the last meeting between President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Palestinian Authority put another condition for the final status of a future Palestinian state: the deployment of international forces in the Palestinian territories as part of peace deal. However, instead of bringing pressure from the Obama Administration upon Israel --- for example, an extension of the settlement freeze in the West Bank if not necessarily a freeze on construction in East Jerusalem and lifting of the siege on Gaza, Washington merely polished up the grail of "Israel's security".

Having extended a carrot-filled unclenched fist to Netanyahu, President Obama had to put pressure on Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas to start direct talks as soon as possible. Of course, he knew that Palestinians would resist this since Israel had not responded to their requirements: the status of final borders, based on 1967, with agreed land swaps and the continuation of negotiations from December 2008. So, Obama allegedly promised Abbas that he would put his own map --- making concessions in favour of Palestinians, with East Jerusalem as the capital of a future Palestinian state --- if Israel fails to bring its own proposals by next winter.

Meanwhile, the next target, both for Netanyahu and Obama's envoy George Mitchell, was Egypt. Both hope that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, with links across the Arab world, can put pressure on Ramallah. However, Cairo does not seem to want that leading role since there is nothing to offer. 

After this weekend's Netanyahu-Mubarak meeting, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit said more work needs to be done to bridge the gap between Israel and the Palestinians before they can move to direct peace talks. Moreover, officials in Egypt were concerned over Israel's position towards Hamas in Gaza.

The mediator role (or "central mediator" as Netanyahu frames it) is quite attractive for Egypt but only as long as Israel does not pass responsibility for control of Gaza to Cairo, as Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman offered last week, and as long as Israel does not wage a war against Hamas. Cairo's own priority is gaining credibility through a reconciliation agreement --- either negotiated or imposed --- between Fatah and Hamas.

This weekend's moves also failed for Mitchell. On Saturday, he met with Abbas and he got nothing. Chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat avoided comment on the meeting but Abbas’ Fatah Central Committee member and strongman Mohammad Dahlan said that Fatah has rejected a call by Mitchell to start direct negotiations. “Going to direct negotiations requires that there should be progress and clear Israeli answers to the borders and security issues,” Dahlan said. “In light of the absences of Israeli responses to these two issues, Fatah has not changed its position regarding refusing to go to direct negotiations.”

So, what is left for the Obama Administration? At the meeting on Saturday, Mitchell said his mediation aims at realizing “the vision that President Obama had set for a comprehensive peace in the Middle East, which must begin with an agreement between Israel and Palestine that will provide for two states living side by side in peace and security and hopefully prosperity.” A day before, he was in Damascus and said: "If we are to succeed, we will need Arabs and Israelis alike to work with us to bring about comprehensive peace."

"Comprehensive peace"? Really? Does the Obama Administration still envisage resolution of the Israeli-Palestian conflict as an opening to further advances from Syria to Lebanon to Gaza? Or is it just offering the appearance of doing something --- anything --- until the end of US elections in November?

Middle East Inside Line: Israel-Palestine Moves in Cairo, Netanyahu-Lieberman Feud, No Smoking Pipes for Gaza Women

UPDATE 1025 GMT: More on the item below on conflict between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman...

Lieberman held a press conference this morning, offering far-from-enthusiastic support for the coalition Government: "It can not be that we were the first [to sign the coalition agreement but we're the last when it comes to the budget. We weren't humiliated, and we aren't the kind of people who let others humiliate us - we won't give this joy to anyone. We do not intend to leave. This coalition can last until 2010 [Editor: 2010?!] in its current framework, and we will do everything possible to make it happen," Lieberman said.

Israel-Palestine Analysis: What is the Obama Administration Seeking?
Middle East Inside Line: Lieberman-Netanyahu Tension, Syria’s “Greatest Hope”, Restrictions on Gaza, & Much More

Cairo's Israel-Palestine Mediation: On Sunday, both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas held separate meetings with Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak in Cairo. Netanyahu, expected to ask Egypt's help in moving Palestinians to direct talks, said, "President Mubarak represents the aspiration to expand the circle of peace, stability and security to all the region's peoples. I view him as a central partner in achieving these important goals."

After talks with US special envoy George Mitchell, Mohammed Dahlan, the head of the Fatah Party's public relations, said Israel has not accepted the PA's demands on security and border issues so there is no reason for direct talks to resume. Abbas had said he would resume direct peace talks if Israel accepted its 1967 frontier as a baseline for the borders of a Palestinian state and agreed to the deployment of an international force.

After the Netanyahu-Mubarak meeting, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit said more work needs to be done to bridge the gap between Israel and the Palestinians before they can move to direct peace talks.

More Netanyahu-Lieberman Tension: The latest incident stoking tensions between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Foreign Minister, Avigdor Lieberman, is Lieberman's appointment --- without Netanyahu's consent --- of a relatively little-known diplomat, Meiron Reuven, as Israel’s Acting Ambassador to the United Nations.

This is not the only troublesome issue, however. Last week, the  Constitution, Law and Justice Committee of the Knesset approved the draft on conversion reform, a bill giving Israel's chief rabbinate the legal power to decide whether any conversion outside Israel is legitimate. Under current practice, Israel recognizes only conversions performed by Orthodox rabbis inside Israel, but people converted by non-Orthodox rabbis outside the country are automatically eligible for Israeli citizenship.

On Sunday, Netanyahu said he opposes the conversion bill, proposed by Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu Party, because it is "tearing apart the Jewish people". He added that his Likud Party would block the proposed legislation from a vote in the Knesset.

In contrast, Interior Minister Eli Yishai (Shas) said that the absence of a conversion law would pose "an enormous spiritual danger to the Jewish people".

Lieberman's "Serious Partner" Advertisement: Following European Union High Representative Catherine Ashton's statement on the need to open all border crossings around the Gaza Strip, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said the new Israeli policy of increasing the amount of goods that can enter the Gaza Strip "is not enough" and that his government "is looking for serious partners" to improve the economic situation in the coastal territory.

He added that Israel is working on a plan to build a power station, desalination plants, and infrastructure for water purification in the Gaza Strip. Doing so, Lieberman put the ball in the court of Hamas, implying that the political leadership of Gaza is the real barrier to Israeli  help with the economy.

Cairo's Anger at Lieberman: The Israeli Foreign Minister,however, has ruffled feathers in Egypt. Last week Lieberman called on Israel to disconnect gradually from the Gaza Strip, shutting down all border crossings with the Strip and allowing movement in and out through the sea and the Rafah crossing on the Egyptian border.

Senior Egyptian officials told Haaretz that Cairo adamantly opposed the move. "We won't allow the responsibility for Gaza to be dumped on us," one official said. "You don't work like that and we are wondering about the timing of Lieberman's statement just before Netanyahu's meeting with President Mubarak."

No Smoking Pipes for Women in Gaza: On Sunday, Hamas said it had banned women from smoking water pipes in public.

Interior ministry spokesman Ihab al-Ghussein told AFP:

The police have decided to ban women from smoking water pipes in open, public places because it is against our customs, traditions and social norms.