The Latest from Iran (28 July): A Presidential Target?

2040 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Author and journalist Yahya Samadi has been arrested in Sanandaj in Kurdistan.

2030 GMT: International Front Update. The US has offered a cautious welcome to Iran's approach for resumed discussions on uranium enrichment (see 1630 GMT). State Department spokesman Phillip Crowley said, "We obviously are fully prepared to follow up with Iran on specifics regarding our initial proposal involving the Tehran research reactor....[We are interested in] trying to fully understand the nature of Iran's nuclear program. We hope to have the same kind of meeting coming up in the coming weeks that we had last October."

NEW Iran Analysis: The Hardliners Take on Ahmadinejad
Latest Iran Video: Ahmadinejad on Afghanistan, Sanctions, & the US (26 July)
Iran Document: Mousavi on Governing and Mis-Governing, Now and in the 1980s (26 July)
Iran Analysis: Interpreting Khamenei’s “Re-Appearing” Fatwa (Verde)
The Latest from Iran (27 July): Regime Wavering?

2007 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert. The President of Islamic Azad University, (IAU) Abdollah Jasbi, has declared, "In its fourth decade [of its existence, i.e., 2020]…the Islamic Azad University will become the greatest and most respected university in the world and competing with renowned universities such as Oxford, Cambridge, Harvard and MIT has been placed on its agenda."

There is no quote from Jasbi on the recent attempt by pro-Ahmadinejad forces to take control of the University, including moves that could have removed Jasbi from his post.

2004 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. HRANA carries a report from political prisoner Saeed Masouri on conditions in Rajai-Shahr Prison.

2000 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. Deutsche Welle --- following earlier reports that Iran has received only three shipments of gasoline this month, rather than the normal 11-13, claims that the country is facing serious shortages.

1630 GMT: International Front. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu says Iran, in a message sent on Sunday, has given an assurance that it will stop enriching uranium to 20 percent purity if other countries agree to a fuel swap.

Crucially, however, it is not clear if Iran has accepted that the uranium swap can take place outside its borders.

1615 GMT: MediaWatch --- One Non-Story, One Nearly-New Story. It's always interesting to see which tales break through into the "mainstream" media outside Iran.

One hot story may actually be a jumped-up urban myth. The Bild tabolid in Germany, not always known for scrupulous adherence to facts, put out the claim on Monday that President Ahmadinejad had denounced Paul the Psychic Octopus as a tool of Western imperialism. More than 48 hours later, the story --- almost always without referencing Bild as the source --- is now embedded in outlets from The Daily Telegraph and The Guardian of London to Time magazine to the Los Angeles Times.

Then there are Ahmadinejad's babies. Months ago, the President proposed a payment of about $1000 for every new child, with subsequent support payments until the boy or girl reached 18. That announcement escaped notice outside Iran. However, when Ahmadinejad restated the idea Tuesday, it was transformed into the news that he had "inaugurated a new policy" by the Associated Press, becoming the Number 1 Iran story in places like The New York Times.

1610 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Radio Zamaneh has more on the reported move of 10 political prisoners, including student activist Abdollah Momeni, journalist Bahman Ahmadi Amoui, and Ahmad Karimi, to solitary confinement (see 0840 GMT). The report claims that the 10 are being punished for protesting against the ill treatment of detainees and their families by guards.

1210 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An appellate court has upheld the 9 1/2-year sentence of student and women’s rights activist Bahareh Hedayat. Hedayat will also serve two years that had been suspended from a 2006 arrest.

Mostafa Kazzazi, the publisher of the banned Seda-ye Edalat (Voice of Justice), has been sentenced to 11 months in jail for propaganda against the establishment, defaming the Islamic republic, and encouraging people to act against security.

Seda-ye Edalat was shut down in July 2009 for "insulting" Ayatollah Khomeini.

1145 GMT: Today's Conspiracy Theory. Back from an academic break to find that Iranian leaders are holding a competition for Biggest, Baddest Threat of the Day.

As good as President Ahmadinejad is in this sport, he only gets the runner-up spot for his declaration in Assalouyeh in southern Iran on Wednesday. His assertion that "Iran's efforts to proceed with giant national oil, gas and petroleum projects by [Iranian] experts have cut the dependence bonds with other economic powers and multinational companies" may be morale-boosting --- if somewhat oblivious to current realities --- but does not really fit in category of Threat.

Your winner? Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, head of the Guardian Council, is the runaway champion with this tale:

I have acquired documents showing that the Americans paid one billion dollars to leaders of sedition through Saudi individuals who are currently the US agents in regional countries. These Saudis, who spoke on behalf of the US, told the opposition figures that if you can overthrow the Islamic establishment, we would pay another 50 billion dollars.

The opposition leaders staged riots with the help of the US and they were confident that the Islamic Revolution will fall with the assistance of the US because it is a soft war which causes people to break away from the Islamic system.

We look forward to seeing those documents and perhaps also the made-for-TV movie for IRIB 1.

0840 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz reports that Abdollah Momeni and other political prisoners are being moved out of Evin Prison's Ward 350 into solitary confinement. Earlier, it was reported that phones in the ward had been cut off this week.

0835 GMT: Moving Out. A reader folllows up our item on the Cultural Heritage Organization protest at transfer of offices outside Tehran: according to Jam-e-Jam, 40% of civil servants should be leaving the capital within the next month.

0740 GMT: We begin this morning with an analysis of tensions within the Iranian system, "The Hardliners Take on Ahmadinejad".

Meanwhile....

Tough Guy Larijani

Partly for his campaign to establish his leadership credentials, partly to challenge Mir Hossein Mousavi's latest statement, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has continued to throw rhetoric at the US. Speaking in Kermanshah on Tuesday, he said:

The United States still seeks to break the Iranian nation's will. The more sanctions they issue against us, the stronger the Iranian nation's will becomes....US President Barack Obama cannot stretch his hands to the Iranian nation while the US Congress adopts moves against Iran....This imposed war [with Iraq from 1980-1988] was not Iraq's war with Iran, but it was a war of most big powers which support Iraq.

The Heritage Protest

The employees of the Cultural Heritage Organization have protested at Tehran's Mehrabad airport, objecting to their transfer to offices outside the capital.

The transfer order is part of the Ahmadinejad Government's plan to reduce the population in Tehran. The 700 employees of the CHO are amongst the first government employees to receive notices.

Fars News has recently published the name of 114 public companies who have been ordered to move from Tehran.

The Latest from Iran (25 July): The Re-Appearing Fatwa

2100 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kayvan Samimi, chief editor of the banned publication Nameh has been given a six-year jail term and has been banned from social, political, and cultural activities for 15 years.

1845 GMT: Defining Irony. From Press TV:

An Iranian lawmaker says Tehran plans to file a lawsuit against the US over the inhumane policies adopted by Washington towards the people of Iran.

"It has been agreed that the issue of US violation of human rights as well as its double standard policies be raised in the international community and a lawsuit be filed to seek compensation for some of the damages inflicted on Iran because of it," member of the Majlis Human Rights Committee Zohreh Elahian said on Sunday.

The Iranian lawmaker said American media have turned human rights into a tool by means of which they manipulate world public opinion, adding, “The US uses human rights to pressure Iran while this country does not observe even the most basic articles of the human rights law.”

NEW Iran Analysis: Re-Defining the Green Movement (Verde)
Iran Analysis: Rafsanjani Bowing Out? (Abedin)
UPDATED Iran Media Follow-Up: War, War, War. Blah, Blah, Blah. No Facts. More War. Blah.
The Latest from Iran (24 July): Reviewing the Situation

1825 GMT: The International Front. Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has confirmed statements by his Turkish and Brazilian counterparts (see 1410 GMT) that Iran will be ready for discussions on its nuclear programme after the month of Ramadan ends in the second week of September.

1820 GMT: Easing the Energy Squeeze? Mehr News claims that Iran has signed a $1.29 billion deal sending its natural gas to Turkey, which secure 77% of the required funding for completing the 660-kilometre pipeline.

Iran currently exports 25 million cubic meters of natural gas to Turkey per day and the figure could rise to 30 million cubic meters a day.

1810 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An appellate court has upheld the two-year sentence of Garmsar Azad University student Masoud Babapour.

Journalist Emaduddin Baghi has been sentenced to one year in prison and a five-year ban on political and media activities.

The punishment is not in connection with Baghi's December 2009 arrest, which followed his interview with the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri for BBC Persian, but stems from a 2008 case. Baghi is currently free on bail.

1458 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Ali Malihi has been sentenced to four years in prison.

1454 GMT: Energy Squeeze. Emad Hosseini of Parliament's Energy Commission says the situation with Iran's ministry overseeing electricity and water is at its worst point since the Revolution.

1450 GMT: Economy Watch. Aftab News reports that 600 workers at Khuzestan Pipe Factory have not been paid for 15 months.

1440 GMT: Economy Watch (China Edition). Aftab News summarises how local products are being replaced by Chinese imports, including green raisins in Kashmar, handicrafts in Isfahan, rice in Caspian Sea provinces. Perhaps "caraways in Kerman" (for British readers, equal to "coals to Newcastle") will be next?

Mehr drives home the point with pictures of the old Carpet Bazaar in Qom, now closed because of imported Chinese rugs.

1435 GMT: Rahnavard Watch. Activist Zahra Rahnavard, meeting a group of political activists, has declared: “A part of the current government sees women as a serious threat. They attack women in the streets, prisons, and in their media in different ways, and by repression, torture, and character assassination they are putting women under unprecedented pressure. These kinds of treatments have saddened noble Iranian men and for sure will strengthen their resistance for democracy and freedom. Of course the Green Movement also realizes that achieving its high values will not be possible without women’s presence and paying attention to their demands.”

1430 GMT: And a Kidnapped Activist? Hoda Saber of the National Religious Front is missing, possibly kidnapped, after leaving the office on Saturday afternoon.

1425 GMT: The Missing Lawyer. The Committee of Human Rights Reporters reports that prominent human rights lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei is missing and his wife and brother-in-law have been detained.

Earlier in the week Mostafaei was summoned to the Prosecutor's Office in Evin Prison and questioned for four hours. Security forces tried to arrest Mostafaei yesterday afternoon but could not find him, arresting family members near his office instead.

Mostafaei is the lawyer of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, whose death sentence for adultery has provoked international criticism of the Iranian regime.

1420 GMT: Labour Front. Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that Saeed Torabian, an activist with the Tehran Bus Workers Union, has been prevented from working after his recent release from detention.

1415 GMT: Economy Watch. Another sign of the recession? Khabar Online reports that automobile companies have closed and traders are in big difficulties because of low prices.

1410 GMT: International Front. Back at EA headquarters to find that the foreign ministers of Turkey and Brazil, following a meeting with Iranian counterpart Manouchehr Mottaki, are saying they will press Iran and the "5+1" powers (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, France) to meet "as soon as possible" on Tehran's uranium-enrichment programme, possibly with discussions in Kabul.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that Iran was "ready to begin negotiations", specifically citing a possible exchange with European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, and that Tehran will send a letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency on Monday.

Davutoglu suggests talks might begin soon after the holy month of Ramadan ends in the second week of September.

0950 GMT: Education Corner. Peyke Iran claims the Government's new effort for "Islamisation" of schools has begun.

Saadollah Nasiri, a member of Parliament's educational commission has said that "retiring" professors is discrimination, with the Government using "scientific stagnation" as a pretext to remove "secular" or anti-Government academics. (http://www.rahesabz.net/story/20110/)

Meanwhile, Minister of Science and Higher Education Kamran Daneshjoo, according to Fars News, has said that Iran needs about 22,000 academics for social sciences. Daneshjoo's statements are considered by some as a call to replace existing staff with "suitable" scholars. (http://news.gooya.com/politics/archives/2010/07/108086.php)

0945 GMT: Parliament v. Government. Reformist
MP Hojatoleslam Qodratollah Alikhani: "Instead of denying it, President Ahmadinejad should at least apologise for the incompetence and mismanagement of his Government leading to sanctions and unemployment." (http://www.parlemannews.ir/?n=12598)

The enquiry by the Majlis into the conduct of Minister of Agriculture Khalilian after summer vacation. (http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-78207.aspx)

0940 GMT: International Front. The foreign ministers of Iran, Turkey and Brazil are meeting in Istanbul to discuss developments since their declaration this spring for talks on Iran's uranium enrichment. (http://aje.me/9WcZMD)

0855 GMT: Rumour of Day. Green Voice of Freedom claims that the President's chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai is overseeing construction of a large residential complex in Belarus, implying that this is preparation for the event that regime leaders will have to flee the country.

0735 GMT: Mahmoud is Not So Mean. President Ahmadinejad today advised the "West", "We recommend them not to continue with their misconducts and observe the rights of nations if they seek to improve their position in the future. This will serve their own interests....We advocate logic and friendship. Every country that establishes friendly relations with Iran benefits this policy."

Ahmadinejad specifically addressed European countries, "Your misbehavior will bring nothing to you but discredit. It will have no impact on the Iranian nation."

0730 GMT: Now That's Just Mean. First Vice President Mohammad Reza AN's Rahimi, opening inaugurating an environmental fair, has said that "Westerners" are filthier than goats.

0700 GMT: We have posted a separate analysis by Mr Verde, "Re-Defining the Green Movement".

0650 GMT: Talking Tough. Iran's military leaders have tried to match the "war chatter" from some groups in the US with declarations across the media: Revolutionary Guards head Jafari says the US does not dare attack, and former commander Yahya Rahim-Safavi describes air and sea conflict if the Americans did.

My favourite quote, however --- representing both Iranian tough talk and the simplication of it by media in the "West" --- is in the Associated Press from former navy head Morteza Saffari, "We have set aside 100 military vessels for each (US) warship to attack at the time of necessity."

0644 GMT: Revolutionary Guards' Jafari "We Are Not United". Yesterday we noted the statement of the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, that leaders of sedition would be dealt with in a timely fashion.

We missed the more intriguing part of the speech:Jafari admitted for the first time in public that some IRGC commanders --- Mohsen Rashid, Moh Ozlati Moghaddam, Hemmat, Bakeri, Zeynoddin --- had supported the opposition, but added that they should not be "eliminated".

0640 GMT: Protesting the Execution. The BBC has posted an article on Saturday's rally in London for Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, the Iranian woman sentenced to death for adultery.

0635 GMT: The Memorial for the Poet. Tehran Bureau has posted one of Ahmad Shamlou's poems, "In This Blind Alley", published soon after the 1979 Revolution. Yesterday security forces dispersed those gathered for the memorial for the 10th anniversary of Shamlou's death.

0630 GMT: Only the "Right" Knowledge, Please. There are reports that Wikipedia was blocked in Iran yesterday.

0540 GMT: Here today, gone tomorrow, back again the day after tomorrow....

The case of the Supreme Leader''s "I am the Rule of the Prophet" fatwa took another turn last night when, having receded in the Iranian state media, it suddenly appeared on Ayatollah Khamenei's website. (When it was put out on Tuesday, it was put out in locations to which the website linked, not the site itself.)

The fatwa asserting that the Supreme Leader acts for the Imams and the Prophet Mohammad and must be obeyed is part of a longer treatise in response to a follower's question about the obligations to velayat-e-faqih (clerical supremacy).

Meanwhile....

Trouble for the Guards in the Oilfield

Revolutionary Guards commander Sardar Ghasemi has admitted the construction firm Khatam-ol Anbia, associated with the Guards, is hindered by old technology and "rusty oil wells". The firm had been awarded a major contract to develop the South Pars gas and oil field, after the withdrawal of foreign companies, but has since pulled back from the project.

Middle East Inside Line: Turkey-Hamas-Israel, Netanyahu Denies "Map", No Russia Missiles to Iran?

Turkey, Hamas, and Israel: Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, having gone to Damascus for discussions with Syrian President Bashar Assad and Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, also reportedly met Hamas political bureau chief Khaled Meshaal on Monday. They spoke about the future of the reconciliation talks between Fatah and Hamas and the continuation of efforts to lift the siege on Gaza.

Meanwhile, Israel took a  positive step towards Ankara. "In light of the calm in Turkey and the absence of large-scale anti-Israeli demonstrations," Israel's Counter Terrorism Bureau lifted a severe warning to Israelis to avoid travel to Turkey.

Middle East Inside Line: Syria-Turkey-Lebanon Condemn Israel, Netanyahu Map “Gap”, Israel’s Iron Dome System

However, this is not the end of the story. The Israeli Foreign Ministry requested assurances from Turkey that three ships belonging to the Turkish organisation IHH, backer of May's Freedom Flotilla will not be used for another attempt to run the blockade on Gaza. The Turkish daily Hurriyet reported that in past cases, Israel has required assurances only from the organizers rather than the Government.

Israel Denies Map for Talks with Palestine: The Prime Minister's Office stated on Tuesday that Benjamin Netanyahu had not presented a map of a possible border agreement and land swaps in recent discussions over Palestine, as alleged by the London-based Al-Sharq al-Awsat.

Russia Not Selling S-300s to Iran?: According to Interfax, Russian military official Alexander Fomin on Tuesday, without referring to the S-300 by name, but pledged Moscow would desist from supplying “large missile systems” to Iran in accordance with the sanctions backed by Russia at the United Nations.

Israel welcomed Moscow's statement.

Israel's "Close" Relations with Greece: Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou is coming to Israel on Wednesday. This will be the first visit to Israel by a Greek prime minister since Konstantinos Mitsotakis came in 1992.

Ahead of the visit, The Jerusalem Post reports:

People in government said there was no doubt that the recent tension with Turkey has led to a warming of the relationship between Israel and some of Turkey’s historic rivals, such as Greece, Cyprus and Bulgaria. The Cypriot and Bulgarian foreign ministers paid visits to Israel earlier this year.

According to one diplomatic official, the Greeks – looking at the Israeli-Turkish, andTurkish-US tensions – are realizing that strategic alliances in the region are changing, and that this might be a good time to get closer to Israel as a way of warming ties with Washington.

When Israel had a close strategic alliance with Turkey, the official said, Athens gave up any thought of forging such an alliance with Israel.

But now the situation with Ankara has changed, and Athens is seeing more opportunities with Israel.

Middle East Inside Line: Syria-Turkey-Lebanon Condemn Israel, Netanyahu Map "Gap", Israel's Iron Dome System

Syria-Turkey-Lebanon Condemning Israel: Syria and its "greatest hope" Turkey again condemned Israel over its deadly intervention against the Freedom Flotilla on 31 May. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri were both present in Damascus as leaders called on the international community to add more pressure for an international probe and to urge Israel to lift the blockade on Gaza.

What Is "The Gap" Between Israel & Palestine?: Following the meeting this weekend between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Egyptian counterpart Hosni Mubarak, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit said more work needs to be done to bridge the gap between Israel and the Palestinians before they can move to direct peace talks.

Israel-Palestine Analysis: What is the Obama Administration Seeking?
Middle East Inside Line: Israel-Palestine Moves in Cairo, Netanyahu-Lieberman Feud, No Smoking Pipes for Gaza Women

What is that gap? According to the London-based A-Sharq al-Awsat, Netanyahu showed Mubarak a map outlining his vision for a final settlement with the Palestinians. The Egyptian President refused publication of this because it is far from the demands of Palestinians for a future state based on 1967 lines with agreed land swaps. Mubarak reportedly told Netanyahu to redraft the map.

Israel's Iron Dome Defense System & Its Cost: The "Iron Dome" short- and medium-range rocket-defense system successfully completed its last round of tests Monday, the Defense Ministry and the Israel Defense Forces said.

There may be a longer-term issue with the system, however. Last week, the government took a decision to cut 2.7 billion shekels ($700 million) from the defense budget. Some IDF generals in IDF argue that it is better to focus on offense using air forces to hit strategic targets rather than deploying defense batteries, but Defense Minister Ehud Barak promised Monday that the Iron Dome batteries would soon be operational.

Currently, Israel has two batteries, each costing between 40 and 50 million shekels. Israel is soon going to receive a special aid package of $250 million from the US, a sum that is meant to cover the purchase of up to nine Iron Dome batteries. However, estimates speak of a need for at least 20 batteries to cover the Galilee and the Negev from missile threats from Lebanon and Gaza. Radar systems and interceptor missiles also have to be deployed.

Al-Qaeda Targets Arab League: The group's second man, Ayman al-Zawahiri, bombarded Arab leaders for having "surrendered" to Israel after their last summit in March. In the video, he said:

Arabs met in Sirte, (Libya), and they only came out with what they call strategic peace choice. What strategic peace choice, when they are sending a message of surrender to Israel that 'We have given up, so do whatever you like in Palestine'?

Middle East Inside Line: US Reaction to House Demolitions, Netanyahu-Mubarak Meeting Deferred and More...

US Criticises Demolition of Palestinian Houses: On Wednesday, State Department spokesman Philip Crowley criticized Israel's recent demolition of Palestinian houses in East Jerusalem: "It is the very kind of action that poses a potential obstacle to direct negotiations. Any steps that the Israelis, Palestinians or other parties take that change the facts on the ground, we think are unhelpful."

Netanyahu Not Going to Cairo: Egypt deferred "the planned meeting between President Hosni Mubarak and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israeli sources claim that the underlying reason of the postponement is Mubarak's deteriorating health situation (see separate EA entry with further information). However, speaking with Al-Shorouq on Wednesday, a senior Egyptian official denied reports of Mubarak's ailing health, saying the meeting was pushed back due to "provocative moves made by Israel".

Turkey Insists on International Probe of Flotilla Attack: After Maj.-Gen. Giora Eiland announced that a military commission's findings that the Israeli Navy had made "operational mistakes" in the 31 May operation against the Freedom Flotilla to Gaza, Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told reporters Tuesday that he welcomed the acknowledgement of "mistakes". However, he said the Israeli commandos had committed "a crime" and said Turkey wants an international enquiry.

Israel Radar System Successfully Tested: Israel tested the Iron Dome's advanced radar system successfully on Wednesday, moving a step closer to deploying both radars and interceptor missiles along the Gaza and Lebanon borders.

Hezbollah's "List of Targets": In an interview with AFP, Naim Kassem, the leader of Hezbollah, said that the group has "large and precise" list of Israeli targets to attack if a third Lebanon war breaks out. He continued:

We now hold a large and precise bank of Israeli targets, and Israel will have to pay the price for any step it takes.

Hezbollah has worked to develop its readiness to rise to the challenge should it arise, and we can safely say that in the past four years we have prepared ourselves far more than Israel has.