The Latest from Iran (28 July): A Presidential Target?

2040 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Author and journalist Yahya Samadi has been arrested in Sanandaj in Kurdistan.

2030 GMT: International Front Update. The US has offered a cautious welcome to Iran's approach for resumed discussions on uranium enrichment (see 1630 GMT). State Department spokesman Phillip Crowley said, "We obviously are fully prepared to follow up with Iran on specifics regarding our initial proposal involving the Tehran research reactor....[We are interested in] trying to fully understand the nature of Iran's nuclear program. We hope to have the same kind of meeting coming up in the coming weeks that we had last October."

NEW Iran Analysis: The Hardliners Take on Ahmadinejad
Latest Iran Video: Ahmadinejad on Afghanistan, Sanctions, & the US (26 July)
Iran Document: Mousavi on Governing and Mis-Governing, Now and in the 1980s (26 July)
Iran Analysis: Interpreting Khamenei’s “Re-Appearing” Fatwa (Verde)
The Latest from Iran (27 July): Regime Wavering?

2007 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert. The President of Islamic Azad University, (IAU) Abdollah Jasbi, has declared, "In its fourth decade [of its existence, i.e., 2020]…the Islamic Azad University will become the greatest and most respected university in the world and competing with renowned universities such as Oxford, Cambridge, Harvard and MIT has been placed on its agenda."

There is no quote from Jasbi on the recent attempt by pro-Ahmadinejad forces to take control of the University, including moves that could have removed Jasbi from his post.

2004 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. HRANA carries a report from political prisoner Saeed Masouri on conditions in Rajai-Shahr Prison.

2000 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. Deutsche Welle --- following earlier reports that Iran has received only three shipments of gasoline this month, rather than the normal 11-13, claims that the country is facing serious shortages.

1630 GMT: International Front. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu says Iran, in a message sent on Sunday, has given an assurance that it will stop enriching uranium to 20 percent purity if other countries agree to a fuel swap.

Crucially, however, it is not clear if Iran has accepted that the uranium swap can take place outside its borders.

1615 GMT: MediaWatch --- One Non-Story, One Nearly-New Story. It's always interesting to see which tales break through into the "mainstream" media outside Iran.

One hot story may actually be a jumped-up urban myth. The Bild tabolid in Germany, not always known for scrupulous adherence to facts, put out the claim on Monday that President Ahmadinejad had denounced Paul the Psychic Octopus as a tool of Western imperialism. More than 48 hours later, the story --- almost always without referencing Bild as the source --- is now embedded in outlets from The Daily Telegraph and The Guardian of London to Time magazine to the Los Angeles Times.

Then there are Ahmadinejad's babies. Months ago, the President proposed a payment of about $1000 for every new child, with subsequent support payments until the boy or girl reached 18. That announcement escaped notice outside Iran. However, when Ahmadinejad restated the idea Tuesday, it was transformed into the news that he had "inaugurated a new policy" by the Associated Press, becoming the Number 1 Iran story in places like The New York Times.

1610 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Radio Zamaneh has more on the reported move of 10 political prisoners, including student activist Abdollah Momeni, journalist Bahman Ahmadi Amoui, and Ahmad Karimi, to solitary confinement (see 0840 GMT). The report claims that the 10 are being punished for protesting against the ill treatment of detainees and their families by guards.

1210 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An appellate court has upheld the 9 1/2-year sentence of student and women’s rights activist Bahareh Hedayat. Hedayat will also serve two years that had been suspended from a 2006 arrest.

Mostafa Kazzazi, the publisher of the banned Seda-ye Edalat (Voice of Justice), has been sentenced to 11 months in jail for propaganda against the establishment, defaming the Islamic republic, and encouraging people to act against security.

Seda-ye Edalat was shut down in July 2009 for "insulting" Ayatollah Khomeini.

1145 GMT: Today's Conspiracy Theory. Back from an academic break to find that Iranian leaders are holding a competition for Biggest, Baddest Threat of the Day.

As good as President Ahmadinejad is in this sport, he only gets the runner-up spot for his declaration in Assalouyeh in southern Iran on Wednesday. His assertion that "Iran's efforts to proceed with giant national oil, gas and petroleum projects by [Iranian] experts have cut the dependence bonds with other economic powers and multinational companies" may be morale-boosting --- if somewhat oblivious to current realities --- but does not really fit in category of Threat.

Your winner? Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, head of the Guardian Council, is the runaway champion with this tale:

I have acquired documents showing that the Americans paid one billion dollars to leaders of sedition through Saudi individuals who are currently the US agents in regional countries. These Saudis, who spoke on behalf of the US, told the opposition figures that if you can overthrow the Islamic establishment, we would pay another 50 billion dollars.

The opposition leaders staged riots with the help of the US and they were confident that the Islamic Revolution will fall with the assistance of the US because it is a soft war which causes people to break away from the Islamic system.

We look forward to seeing those documents and perhaps also the made-for-TV movie for IRIB 1.

0840 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz reports that Abdollah Momeni and other political prisoners are being moved out of Evin Prison's Ward 350 into solitary confinement. Earlier, it was reported that phones in the ward had been cut off this week.

0835 GMT: Moving Out. A reader folllows up our item on the Cultural Heritage Organization protest at transfer of offices outside Tehran: according to Jam-e-Jam, 40% of civil servants should be leaving the capital within the next month.

0740 GMT: We begin this morning with an analysis of tensions within the Iranian system, "The Hardliners Take on Ahmadinejad".

Meanwhile....

Tough Guy Larijani

Partly for his campaign to establish his leadership credentials, partly to challenge Mir Hossein Mousavi's latest statement, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has continued to throw rhetoric at the US. Speaking in Kermanshah on Tuesday, he said:

The United States still seeks to break the Iranian nation's will. The more sanctions they issue against us, the stronger the Iranian nation's will becomes....US President Barack Obama cannot stretch his hands to the Iranian nation while the US Congress adopts moves against Iran....This imposed war [with Iraq from 1980-1988] was not Iraq's war with Iran, but it was a war of most big powers which support Iraq.

The Heritage Protest

The employees of the Cultural Heritage Organization have protested at Tehran's Mehrabad airport, objecting to their transfer to offices outside the capital.

The transfer order is part of the Ahmadinejad Government's plan to reduce the population in Tehran. The 700 employees of the CHO are amongst the first government employees to receive notices.

Fars News has recently published the name of 114 public companies who have been ordered to move from Tehran.

Comments

[WitteKr]

Economy Watch. Turkey 'not party' to Iran pipeline deal.
"Iranian Petroleum Minister Masoud Mirkazemi visited Turkey last week to discuss Turkish-Iranian energy cooperation. The Iranian oil ministry announced that during the visit a deal was concluded with a Turkish private energy company, worth US$1.3 billion to build a pipeline from Iran to Turkey." (...) BUT:
"Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz clarified immediately that neither the Turkish government nor the state-owned pipeline company, BOTAS, was party to such an agreement. He noted earlier interest expressed by private companies in such a pipeline, and said that it might involve one of these companies and Iran. Nonetheless, it was unusual that he acted as though he had no knowledge of an agreement being signed, although it was publicized by the Iranian side."
Interesting background on Turkey, Iran, pipelines and sanctions... by Saban Kardas in http://atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/LG29Ag02.html" rel="nofollow">http://atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/LG29Ag02....

[WitteKr]

"Head of the Guardian Council Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati says the US has given "the leaders of sedition" one billion dollars in order to topple the Islamic establishment during last year's post-election unrest. "I have acquired documents showing that the Americans paid one billion dollars to leaders of sedition through Saudi individuals who are currently the US agents in regional countries.” - Ayatollah Jannati said Saudi Arabia is obeying the US “in a servile manner” and added that Iran is the only country which stood by itself and chanted “death to America” with strength. -:) Sorry, I'm only quoting Press TV... http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=136511§ionid=351020101" rel="nofollow">http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=136511&sec...

[WitteKr]

There's some conflicting reporting here, Catherine.
Europe's Iran sanctions may backfire, By Kaveh L Afrasiabi - 28th July (your link)
"Ironically, the EU's decision comes only a few days after Turkey signed a US$1.3 billion pipeline agreement with Iran that calls for gas exports of 2.1 billion cubic feet a day (cf/d) in three years. No surprise then that Ankara was quick in denouncing the EU's sanctions and openly stated it would not honor them."
BUT - one day later:
Turkey 'not party' to Iran pipeline deal, By Saban Kardas - 29th July (my link :-)
"Although Turkey objected to US policy on the Iranian nuclear issue and voted against the UN Security Council resolution authorizing sanctions, it underlined that it would implement them. It is unclear whether this development played a direct role in Ankara's decision to cancel its investment in Iran."
Don't they read their own articles on Asia Times?

Time for Ali to jump in! Turkey, sanctions, pipelines, visits by UK PM Cameron, German FM Westerwelle. There must be a story here...

[Catherine]

And now look at David Cameron kissing up to Turkey's EU member state ambitions: http://www.worldbulletin.net/news_detail.php?id=61872" rel="nofollow">http://www.worldbulletin.net/news_detail.php?id...

[WitteKr]

Afghanistan shuts down private TV channel 'Emroaz' over 'anti-national' (= anti-Iran) programming
The channel recently criticised leading Shia politicians in the country for being 'agents of Iran'. Emroaz is owned by Afghan MP Najibulla Kabuli. The BBC quoted Kabuli as saying that ‘Emroaz’, which means "today" in Dari, has been trying to reveal to viewers "Iran''s interference in Afghanistan''s affairs." He accused Iran’s ambassador to Afghanistan Fada Hossein Maleki, of putting pressure on President Hamid Karzai to take action against the station.
http://www.newkerala.com/news2/fullnews-9173.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.newkerala.com/news2/fullnews-9173.html

[Catherine]

RE: " I have acquired documents showing that the Americans paid one billion dollars to leaders of sedition through Saudi individuals who are currently the US agents in regional countries."

I'll believe it when Wikileaks does :-)

[Catherine]

Now in English:
Ten political detainees moved to solitary in Iranian prison
Ten Iranian political prisoners have reportedly been transferred to solitary confinement in section 350 of Evin Prison for protesting against being mistreated by the guards.

Kaleme reformist website reports that “Abdollah Momeni, spokesman for the student organization Danesh Amoukhtegan, Bahman Ahmadi Amouyi, journalist, and Ahmad Karimi, political activists are amongst the prisoners that have been transferred.
More: http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/07/ten-political-detainees-m.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/07/ten-polit...

[Bahman_Azad]

I really like much of EA's work but....Do you have a point here? Are western media required to only highlight news when they are FIRST introduced or only when EA deems them important? Are your sure you are not allowing your personal egos to get in the way of your almost-daily criticism of other media outlets?

"1615 GMT: MediaWatch — One Non-Story, One Old Story. It’s always interesting to see which tales break through into the “mainstream” media outside Iran.

One hot story may actually be a jumped-up urban myth. The Bild tabolid in Germany, not always known for scrupulous adherence to facts, put out the claim on Monday that President Ahmadinejad had denounced Paul the Psychic Octopus as a tool of Western imperialism. More than 48 hours later, the story — almost always without referencing Bild as the source — is now embedded in outlets from The Daily Telegraph and The Guardian of London to Time magazine to the Los Angeles Times"

[Kurt]

US President Barack Obama cannot stretch his hands to the Iranian nation while the US Congress adopts moves against Iran….This imposed war [with Iraq from 1980-1988] was not Iraq’s war with Iran, but it was a war of most big powers which support Iraq.

---

So, by this logic, is Obama now to blame for such personages as Birthers like Louie Gohmert and the Tea Party Caucus?

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/07/26/tea_party_caucus_members_endorse_israeli_attack_on_iran" rel="nofollow">http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/07...

At least with Larijani, I know he knows the difference between rhetoric and reality.

[Kurt]

Thanks WitteKr, this is quite possibly great news (I hope). I sure would like an analysis of the original dismissal to this turnabout, via multilateral sanctions. I can make a few guesses here and there on the whys and wherefores, but I'm not nearly as sharp as Scott, Mr. Verde, or fellow readers.

[WitteKr]

From the night shift: "A recent poll conducted by a credible Iranian university centre concerning the post-election events of 2009 has found that 56 percent of participants believe President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's popularity has declined over the past year, while just 22 percent believe it has increased. (...)
According to the poll, conducted in Tehran in June by the Iranian Student Polling Agency (ISPA), two-thirds of the 1,172 people surveyed believe that dissatisfaction with the government remains widespread, if largely covert. (...)
Details of the survey appeared last week on the Kalame website, which has ties to Mousavi. Since then, conservative websites like Rajanews have challenged the results as biased."
Poll Finds Dwindling Support for Govt - By Omid Memarian
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=52307" rel="nofollow">http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=52307

[Dissected News]

Oh boy, WitteKr. If I weren't so busy right now, I'd try to be the first to post this on a Race for Iran forum.

Because I am as shocked as everyone else that things aren't going well in Iranian politics.

[Kurt]

'Tis bookmarked as another arrow in my quiver to pull out when needed.

22% whom believe his popularity has increased would correspond to past estimations of his base, no?

[Catherine]

The Night Shift is putting the Morning Shift out of business. ;-)

OK - who here is going to volunteer to post Omid Memarians IPS article on Race For Iran? :-)

[ScottLucas11]

My deepest thanks to both Shifts....

S.