Israel-Palestine Analysis: What Message Has the Arab League Sent? (And To Whom?)

On Thursday, the Arab League supposedly made its decision. The Qatari prime minister Hamed Ben Jasem al-Thani announced that the group would support Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas if he decided to enter negotiations with Israel. Many newspapers reported that the Arab League gave the "green light" for direct talks.

Did it?

In a letter to the Obama Administration, the League stated that it needed a clear timeframe, specific terms of reference, and a monitoring mechanism to support direct talks. Indeed, al-Thani said, "There is agreement, but only about the way the talks will be held and the subjects that will be discussed."

That's not a green light but a yellow one. The Arab League has avoided blame as "the supporter of Palestinians at any cost" and saved its credibility in the eyes of the US. At the same time it has not given an unqualified endorsement of discussions.

So, where is the ball? It may seem like it is in the court of Ramallah --- will Abbas finally ease back on his insistence that the Israelis commit now to the 1967 borders and to a freeze on settlements? --- but it is actually in Washington. With its own "conditions", the League has supported Abbas' call for a clear definition on the borders and any land swaps and for a transparent timetable for discussions and implementation of measures. Arab League chief Amr Moussa reiterated, "I assure you I am not of the intention to enter into negotiations, without a time frame, without clear references and without monitoring."

The question: will the Obama Administration insist on prominent steps by Israel, steps beyond the chant of "talks, talks, talks", before the settlements freeze ends on 26 September?

Israel-Palestine: Abbas' Conditions, Netanyahu's "Eastern Front" Response

On Sunday the leader of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, said that he was under pressure from the international community to start direct talks but added that negotiations would collapse from the first minute if there were no "clear and specific references".

Ahead of Thursday's Arab League foreign ministers' summit in Cairo, these references should be seen as a future Palestinian state based on pre-1967 borders and a construction freeze both in the West Bank and in East Jerusalem.

To Lift The Spirits (Sequel): Dancing with Matt…in Gaza

In response, speaking at the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blamed the PA for "stalling direct talks and relying on the Arab League for support." He said that first "they [Palestinians] said it was the [settlement] freeze, now it's the borders issue."

On the security front, Netanyahu put a double-edged agenda: First he said, "We won't compromise security and that's why the U.S. administration has been notified of our security needs." The he asserted, "Arrangements reached with the Palestinians must be such as to withstand any changes in the political and security Middle East map," and he went further, "The Palestinians must hold firm even if an eastern front develops, as was the case, for example, before the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime."

What was meant by the "eastern front"? Any guesses?

No Israeli politician is likely stop with only an "eastern front". Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak added a "north front". In an interview with The Washington Post, he said that the IDF will attack Lebanese government institutions if Israel is again subjected to rocket attacks and continued:

We will not run after each Hezbullah terrorist or launcher....We will see it as legitimate to hit any target that belongs to the Lebanese state, not just to Hezbullah.

And Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman was back on West Bank settlements, calling for new building to resume once the moratorium ends September 26:

From September we must resume normal life here. We do not have any intention to change the demographic situation or to create a provocation, but only to provide a normal life for the people that came here under the policies of [past] government[s].

A day before Lieberman's visit, Netanyahu had said he had not intention to extend the 10-month moratorium, saying "the slowdown was limited in time: It has not changed and that's how it will be."

So Netanyahu's "eastern front" complements the demands elsewhere on "security" and on settlements. All of this puts up a formidable wall to Abbas' conditions for agreement to direct talks.

Israel-US Connect the Dots: Iran, Palestine, & Billions in Military Aid

On Sunday, Israel's Defense Ministry announced that Israel and the United States signed an agreement over the  Arrow III ballistic mssile shield, "The Arrow III will allow Israel to deal with the threat of ballistic missiles with long range and will give it the ability to shoot down weapons of mass destruction outside the atmosphere."

The step is a further consolidation of Israel's security institutions against the "existential threat" from Iran's long-range missiles.

However, this is not the end of the story. Two weeks ago US Assistant Secretary of State Andrew J. Shapiro said Washington intended to expand imilitary aid to Israel in the hope that West Jerusalem could reach tough decisions in its peace talks with the Palestinians. Speaking at the Brookings Saban Center for Middle East Policy in Washington D.C., Shapiro said, " In 2010, the administration requested [from Congress] $2.775 billion in security assistance funding specifically for Israel, the largest such request in U.S. history."

Gaza Latest: Hamas Response to EU & UN, Israel Ponders No Cooperation

Israel receives approximately $3 billion annually in foreign aid from Washington, equivalent to 2 percent of Israel's GDP and an extra $500 to every Israeli citizen. The second-largest recipient in the region, Egypt gets $20 per its citizen.

Before the 1998 Wye River Treaty, Israel received $1.2 billion for a partial withdrawal from the West Bank. Israel also received $1 billion in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) to prepare for a possible Iraqi missile bombardment in 2003 (and to be silent about that possibility).

Now, thanks to the "existential threat" of Iran, Washington is handing out billions more "incentives" for the Netanyahu government to show "real" gestures towards Palestinians, especially on the borders of a future Palestinian state, before direct negotiations.

Gaza Latest: Hamas Response to EU & UN, Israel Ponders No Cooperation

Hamas's Call on EU Countries: Following European Union Foreign Policy Chief Catherine Ashton's  visit to the Gaza Strip, with a call for a lifting of Israel's blockade and French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner's expression of readiness to hold direct dialogue with Hamas "if France receives an official request from the Palestinian Authority",  Ismail Radwan, a Gaza-based senior Hamas leader called on EU countries to hold direct talks with the group, "The European Union and France shouldn't hesitate in having direct dialogue with Hamas on the basis of direct dialogue and not on the basis of containment."

Gaza Latest: Israel Warnings over 2 Aid Ships, UN Flotilla Enquiry, & More

Hamas Blames UN: After the United Nations declared that humanitarian aid carried by two Lebanese aid ships should be delivered by land and not through a breaking of Israel's sea blockade, Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri accused the organisation of being in "collaboration with the Israeli occupier" and added:

The UN call to international organizations to use the over-land road to Gaza instead of the sea is unacceptable and illegal.

Israel Not Likely to Cooperate with UN?: After the United Nations Human Rights Council appointed a team of international experts to investigate Israel’s raid on the Gaza-bound Freedom Flotilla, sources in the Prime Minister’s Office said that West Jerusalem is unlikely to cooperate.

Fatah and Hamas praised the appointment of the three-member panel. Fatah spokesman Ahmed A’saf said that Israel should not be treated as if it was above the law and Israeli war criminals should be tried for their actions. Hamas political consultant Yusuf Rizka expressed concerns that Israel would not cooperate with the investigative team, which could damage the investigation’s findings.

Hamas's New Technology?: According to Israeli police, a rocket sent from the Gaza Strip into the western Negev was not a Qassam, but may be a more advanced type, possibly smuggled into the Strip.

The projectile was taken to a police laboratory  for assessment.

The Latest from Iran (24 July): Reviewing the Situation

2210 GMT: The Re-Appearing Fatwa? But for eyebrow-raising, this wins the prize....

Rah-e-Sabz claims that the Supreme Leader's "I am the Rule of the Prophet" fatwa, which appeared on Tuesday but then receded from Iranian state media, is now back --- unfortunately, the website doesn't link to the supposed location.

NEW Iran Analysis: Rafsanjani Bowing Out? (Abedin)
UPDATED Iran Media Follow-Up: War, War, War. Blah, Blah, Blah. No Facts. More War. Blah.
Iran Interview: Detained US Hiker’s Mother “I Wish I Could Hear Her Voice”
Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader & the Disappearing Fatwa (Verde)
The Latest from Iran (23 July): Receding Authority

2200 GMT: Bazaar Developments. We close this evening with some eyebrow-raising news.

It looks like there has been an attempted reconcilation between the President and officials of the conservative Motalefeh Party, who have been a traditional power behind the Bazaar. On Thursday Ahmadinejad met Habibollah Asgharowladi, Asadollah Badamchian, and Mohammad Nabi Habibi.

Friction between the President and Motalefeh had been stoked by the dispute over control of Islamic Azad University, with members of the party criticised by Ahmadinejad supporters for their defence of Parliament's position.

Meanwhile, Rah-e-Sabz posts photos of a large fire in Kerman Bazaar. The cause is unclear.

2145 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert. Ali Vakili, the managing director of Pars Oil and Gas Company, says that investment in Iran's South Pars gas field has increased by 120 percent in the current Iranian year. Vakili said the rise was the result of the issuance of 3 billion Euros in foreign currency bonds and $3.014 billion in national participation bonds.

There was no reported comment from Vakili on how bonds could assure completion of projects when foreign companies were withdrawing from South Pars.

1830 GMT: The Interrupted Memorial. Footage of the memorial for poet Ahmad Shamlou, disrupted by security forces (see 1640 GMT), has been posted.

1810 GMT: Labour Front. Operators at the Kermanshah Telecommunication Company staged a protest in front of the Kermanshah Governor’s mansion on Thursday.

1750 GMT: Picture of Day. One of a set of photographs of former Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mohsen Armin after his release from detention on $200,000 bail:



1745 GMT: Video of Day. Footage has been posted of poet Shams Langroudi reciting his work at the memorial for Amir Javadifar, killed in post-election conflict last year.

1730 GMT: A Demotion for the Supreme Leader? Reporting on a meeting of the Supreme Leader with his office staff, Rah-e-Sabz refers to "Mr Khamenei".

1653 GMT: Refugees in Germany. The first of 50 post-election Iranian refugees have arrived in Germany after they were granted asylum. The refugees, most of whom are reported to be dissident journalists, had been in Turkey.

1645 GMT: Karroubi Goes After the Guardians. Mehdi Karroubi, in a letter to Guardian Council member Ayatollah Mohammad Momen, has criticised the  Council for "institutionalizing fraud" and offering a "double-standard interpretation" of the constitution.

Karrubi alleged that the Council has become an "instrument for securing and maintaining power for a particular political faction".

1640 GMT: Blocking the Poet's Memorial. Parleman News reports that security forces have forced the cancellation of a memorial at the grave of Ahmad Shamlou, one of Iran's great contemporary poets, on the 10th anniversary of his death.

1405 GMT: Talking Tough. For Revolutionary Guard Commander Mohammad Ali Jafari, all this Government in-fighting is irrelevant: leaders of the "uproar" will be dealt with in a timely fashion.

1400 GMT: More Larijani v. Ahmadinejad. The Speaker of Parliament is in fighting mood: he has accused the Government of violating the Constitution over subsidy cuts.

1330 GMT: Parliament v. President (and It's in State Media). Press TV and the Islamic Republic News Agency breaks their usual silence on the Parliament's growing conflict with Mahoud Ahmadinejad, highlighting the issue of $2 billion for the Tehran Metro.

Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani is quoted, "Executive bodies are obliged to enforce this law after its communication. They cannot refrain from enforcing it. According to the Constitution, the president must communicate any law within a specific period of time. If a legislation is not communicated in due time the Majlis speaker will communicate it."

The Government has refused to sanction the $2 billion, possibly because of a political battle with Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf. (Former Vice President Massoumeh Ebtekar has just made this point in Rah-e-Sabz.)

1245 GMT: Academic Corner. Peyke Iran claims 13 professors at Al-Zahra University have been dismissed and students have advised to study China and Russia.

1240 GMT: Offside. The sports daily Goal has been banned for three months.

1200 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Mohsen Armin has been freed on bail of about $200,000.

An appellate court has upheld the 9 1/2-year sentence imposed on human rights activist Bahareh. Hedayat. The 7-year term of Milad Asadi has also been upheld.

1105 GMT: Parliament v. President. Another MP, Mus al-Reza Servati, has declared that the Ahmadinejad budget lacks ministerial signatures and is therefore illegal.

1045 GMT: Culture Corner. The Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance has reiterated that censorship of books and films is necessary.

1005 GMT: We have posted a separate analysis, "Rafsanjani Bowing Out?"

1000 GMT: Economy Watch. Peyke Iran claims that up to 85% of workers now have temporary employment contracts.

0925 GMT: The Universities Conflict. Raha Tahimi, writing for the Institute of War and Peace Reporting, posts a useful overview of the dispute over control of Islamic Azad University and the "temporary ceasefire" between former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and President Ahmadinejad.

0915 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. On Wednesday Mehdi Karroubi visited Narges Mohammadi, the women's rights activist who was recently released from detention.

Mohammadi continues to suffer from poor health and the lack of treatment provided when she was in prison.

0735 GMT: Cyber-Watch. Ali Aghazadeh of Parliament's National Security Commission has reportedly declared that "countless new sites need more control" by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps.

0730 GMT: Conspiracy Theory. It wasn't all cheer and sending a man into space in the President's speech on Friday (see 0649 GMT).

Ahmadinejad "revealed plans by the United States and Israel", announcing, "They [Washington] have decided to attack two of the regional Arab states, which are our allies, with the help of the Zionist regime to create fear of decision-making in Iran."

The President teased the audience by not revealing which two Arab states are under the gun. Instead, he turned to another concern, chastising Russian President Dmitry Medvedev over remarks on Tehran's nuclear programme. Ahmadinejad regretted that Medvedev had "become the mouthpiece for the plot by the enemies of Iran."

The President did say that he maintained hope for relations with Moscow.

0700 GMT: Road to Nowhere. Iranian Students News Agency claims that the Ministry of Transport owes billions of dollars to construction companies, with 500 road and rail projects unfinished. Parliament has asked the Minister of Transport not to accept plans for construction proposed after the President's recent tour of the provinces.

0655 GMT: The Supreme Leader's Back-Room Politics. Amidst the intrigues this week over Ayatollah Khamenei's "I am the Rule of the Prophet Fatwa", Rah-e-Sabz offers an analysis of the Supreme Leader's advisors, including chief of staff Asghar Hejazi, the mysterious "Mr Vahid", and Khamenei's son Mojtaba.

0649 GMT: Mahmoud Looks to the Stars. Speaking at the National Festival of Iranian Youth on Friday, President  Ahmadinejad said Iran plans to launch its first manned shuttle into space by 2019.

Ahmadinejad added that the project was scheduled for 2035 but that the launch date was reviewed in a Cabinet meeting this week. He did not offer the reason for the sudden 16-year advance in his Ministers' calculations.

0645 GMT: Energy Posture. Iranian 1st Vice President  Mohammad Reza Rahimi has said that Iran is considering the removal of the dollar and the euro from its oil trade transactions: "In our oil transactions, we will use any currency that is to our benefit.”

Reports indicate that Iran and China may start using the yuan, the Chinese currency, to settle their oil transactions. An Iranian official has also suggested the dirham, the currency of the United Arab Emirates, for business.

Following the latest UN and US  sanctions, Iran has been experiencing difficulties in carrying out its international trade deals in dollars and euros.