The Latest from Iran (30 July): Stepping Up the Criticism

2135 GMT: Political Prison Experience. Reza Rafii-Forushan, an Iranian stringer for Time magazine, has written an open letter appealing against his "frame-up" by Iranian authorities and complaining about abuses in prison.

Rafii-Forushan was arrested on 27 June 2009 and held for 43 days in solitary confinement during his interrogation.

2130 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Arshama3's Blog lists the individuals, institutions, and companies subjected to new sanctions by the European Union.

1915 GMT: Going after Jannati. The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front has joined Mehdi Karroubi's attack on Ayatollah Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council (see separate entry), demanding that Jannati “clarify how and when he has secured...documents" that allegedly show a US-Saudi $50 billion plot for regime change. They question, "How can an individual that does not refrain from committing the biggest sins, be in charge of two positions that have justice as their first criterion?"

This, however, may be the most intriguing sentence: "Has he made these revelations with the authority of the relevant officials?” EA sources indicate that, because Jannati is seen as being close to the Supreme Leader, the criticism of him is an indirect challenge to Ayatollah Khamenei's authority.

NEW Iran Music Video Special: The Award-Winning “Ayatollah, Leave Those Kids Alone”
NEW Iran’s Persecution of Rights: The Pursuit of Lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei (Shahryar)
Iran Document: Karroubi Strongly Criticises Head of Guardian Council (29 July)
Iran Analysis: Twisting & Turning to Prove the Leader is Supreme (Verde)
Iran: How “Ahmadinejad v. Paul the Octopus” Became a Global Showdown
The Latest from Iran (29 July): 22% Support?

1910 GMT: Containing the Cleric. It is being reported that Molana Abdolhamid, the Sunni Friday Prayer leader of Zahedan, has been barred from leaving country and his passport has been confiscated.

1830 GMT: Poster of the Day. Courtesy of the Iranian Government, "A Woman without Hijab is like a Chair with Three Legs".



1800 GMT: Client and Lawyer Watch. The Guardian of London has a lengthy profile of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, the woman sentenced to death for adultery (on the basis, the article claims, of a 3-2 decision amongst the judges), who has sent a message from inside Tabriz Prison.

Deep in the article is this sentence about Mohammad Mostafaei, Ashtiani's lawyer, who is hiding after authorities tried to detain him and arrested his wife and brother-in-law: "The Guardian has learned that Mostafaei is safe for the moment and plans to publish an open letter to Tehran's prosecutor."

1730 GMT: Larijani Watch. Today's claim of "strong Iran leader" by Ali Larijani comes in the pages of the Islamic Republic News Agency.

Stressing that Iran's motives in the Middle East, as it does not seek an empire, Larijani declared, "If the Zionist regime bullies Palestine we will stand against it, and if it decides to attack Lebanon Hezbollah will confront it."

As for uranium and sanctions, Larijani emphasised Iran's pursuit of peaceful nuclear capability: "When the US questions why Iran has nuclear and missile technology it is because [it is unhappy that] we have the ability to obtain such technologies.....Had we been producing fruit juice, mineral water, and tomato paste, it (the US) would never have raised an objection....They claim that Iran has nuclear weapons, but they never say [a word about] the Zionist regime, which is their friend [and] possesses nukes."

1645 GMT: Do Not Panic. Might be worth noting this reference from Mehr News to Ayatollah Emami Kashani's Tehran Friday Prayer: "He...called on people who have deposited their money in foreign banks to return their funds to Iran."

1620 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Back from a break to find a far-from-unexpected tweak in the sanctions tale. The Chinese Government has said that it does not approve of new sanctions imposed by the European Union while welcoming Tehran's offer to return to negotiations on uranium enrichment.

A Foreign Ministry statement declared, "China does not approve of the European Union's unilateral sanctions on Iran. We hope that all relevant parties can support a diplomatic solution and appropriately resolve the Iran nuclear issue through dialogue and negotiations."

1300 GMT: Your Friday Prayer Update. Have to be honest, it's hard working up enthusiasm over Ayatollah Emami Kashani's Tehran Friday Prayer.

The cleric called for Iranian cohesion --- political, economic, and cultural --- in the face of sanctions. However, any white-hot rhetoric seemed to be cooled by the Iranian Government's indications this week that it would enter discussions, even with the "enemy", over its uranium enrichment programme. (Earlier on Friday, Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, said it was "out of the question for Iran to promise never to enrich uranium" but said the move for 20% enriched uranium could be suspended if talks were held.)

That left Emami Kashani's defiance with the line that the great Iranian nation would not need "outside help" to produce the necessary uranium for civilian purposes.

1255 GMT: Mahmoud's University Push. Hmm, I get the feeling that the dispute over control of Islamic Azad University, supposedly resolved by the Supreme Leader's intervention, could flare up again....

Speaking to a student organisation, President Ahmadinejad warned that "enemies" are trying to create space for their activities within Iran's universities.

1215 GMT: Conspiracy Theory Update. First it was President Ahmadinejad with warnings of an imminent American strike on two Arab countries allied with Tehran , then it was Ayatollah Jannati, the leader of the Guardian Council with revelations of the US-Saudi $50 billion "regime change" scheme, now it's the "nuclear-pig-blood cigarette plot".

Mohammad Reza Madani from the Society for Fighting Smoking said contraband Marlboros, part of the 20 billion cigarettes smuggled into Iran each year,  have been contaminated with pig hemoglobin and unspecified nuclear material.

Madani claimed Philip Morris International, which sells Marlboro outside the US, is "led by Zionists" and deliberately exports tainted cigarettes.

1055 GMT: Mousavi's 1988 Resignation Letter. Mr Verde stops by to discuss Mir Hossein Mousavi's letter of resignation as Prime Minister, reprinted yesterday on the website of former President Abolhassan Banisadr:

The letter in general accuses Ayatollah Khamenei, who was President in 1988, of meddling in affairs which are not directly his responsibility. This is similar to the accusations about his current activity as the Supreme Leader. It also shows the internal workings of the Islamic Republic to be chaotic and haphazard.

Point 2 of the letter talks about “external operations” and lists: a plane hijacking, a shooting in a Lebanese street, and discovery of explosives on Iranian hajj pilgrims. It says that these operations are disastrous for the country and could be repeated any moment.
The tone of the letter is suggesting that all of these are carried out by the Islamic Republic's officials and that Khamenei is involved in them, although it says that the Prime Minister [Mousavi] is in the dark about it.

These accusations are not coming from regime opponents or foreign governments. They are coming from the Islamic Republic's Prime Minister.

1. Mousavi is accusing Khamenei, as President, of being involved in terrorist activity overseas. This could be used to embarrass Khamenei further, placing the activity next to the actions of the Islamic Republic after Khamenei became Supreme Leader, e.g. Chain Murders, attacks on student dormitories, street killings, prison rapes, etc.

2. The letter suggests that the Islamic Republic was regularly involved in terrorist activity overseas, an allegation which could be damaging to the current regime .

Will Mousavi confirm this, deny this, or, as he had for 22 years since the letter was first leaked, ignore this?

What will Khamenei’s side do? Will they “leak” letters and information which would counter this letter? If they play the card of Ayatollah Khomeini, then Supreme Leader, it would mean tha,t despite his best efforts, Kahmenei has again have been forced to hide behind Khomeini.

Although the current intra-regime arguments started with the dispute over the 2009 presidential elections, this episode has the potential to cause trouble well beyond that. One can't help get the feeling that events --- in this case but not only in this case --- may spiral out of control.

1040 GMT: EA's Hot Tips of Day. Based on information from sources:

1. Discussions earlier this month between Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, key member of Parliament Ahmad Tavakoli, and Secretary of Expediency Council Mohsen Rezaei on action against the President --- which we covered on EA --- have been followed by several meetings between Larijani, Rezaei, and Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf.

2. The Supreme Leader's "I am the Rule of the Prophet" fatwa followed a visit to Qom, and specifically to Grand Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi, by member of Ayatollah Khamenei's office. Makarem-Shirazi said he could not support a unilateral declaration by the Supreme Leader but he could accept a declaration framed as an answer to a question from a follower. The question and answer followed two or three days later.

0945 GMT: We've posted a separate entry on the music video, "Ayatollah, Leave Those Kids Alone!", which has just won an award in Britain, including an interview with the members of the Iranian band, Blurred Vision.

The Independent of London has also posted an interview with the band members.

0815 GMT: Talking Tough. Hojatoleslam Mojtaba Zolnour, the representative of the Supreme Leader in the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, grabs the spotlight with the warning that there should be action against Iran in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

Zolnour said Tehran would "act correspondingly" if its ships were challenged. He added, "Sanctions will backfire and have grave consequences for [these countries]."

0610 GMT: Watching Karroubi (and the Reaction to Karroubi). We're keeping eyes open for the reaction to Mehdi Karroubi's open letter to Ayatollah Jannati, head of the Guardian Council (posted in a separate entry). To call this a "criticism" is a major understatement: Karroubi is effectively accusing one of Iran's leading political and religious figures of being --- at the least --- an accomplice to election fraud and Government repression.

0600 GMT: We start today with a focus on human rights, specifically the regime's attempt to limit or even prevent the defence of them. Josh Shahryar offers a feature on the Government's pursuit of lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei, who is missing as his wife and brother-in-law sit in prison.

Mostafaei's colleague Shadi Sadr, who was forced into exile by the regime, has written to the Iranian Bar Association:

It appears that the legal-security system, while forced to stop carrying out the stoning sentence [against Mostafaei's client Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani], is hell bent on taking revenge on Mr Mostafaei by some trumped-up charges. Since they were unable to find him, they have arrested his wife and brother-in-law....

This is not the first time in the history of the Islamic Republic of Iran that the family of a civil activist have been taken hostage. The policy of oppression of activists by pressurising their family members by different forms, from threatening them to extracting "confessions" by torture, has been used brutally in the past few years. In one of the recent cases, the husband of Mrs Shirin Ebadi, a member of the Bar Association of Iran, human rights activist and Nobel Laureate, was forced to speak against her on camera after several days of incarceration....

As a lawyer, a member of the Central Court lawyers, also as a client and defendant, I urge you, who lead this oldest civil law society in Iran, not to remain silent on state kidnap and retaliation....If we do not act against this policy, whose victims today are Shirin Ebadi and Mohammad Mostafaie, it will attack every single one of us tomorrow.

The Latest from Iran (24 July): Reviewing the Situation

2210 GMT: The Re-Appearing Fatwa? But for eyebrow-raising, this wins the prize....

Rah-e-Sabz claims that the Supreme Leader's "I am the Rule of the Prophet" fatwa, which appeared on Tuesday but then receded from Iranian state media, is now back --- unfortunately, the website doesn't link to the supposed location.

NEW Iran Analysis: Rafsanjani Bowing Out? (Abedin)
UPDATED Iran Media Follow-Up: War, War, War. Blah, Blah, Blah. No Facts. More War. Blah.
Iran Interview: Detained US Hiker’s Mother “I Wish I Could Hear Her Voice”
Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader & the Disappearing Fatwa (Verde)
The Latest from Iran (23 July): Receding Authority

2200 GMT: Bazaar Developments. We close this evening with some eyebrow-raising news.

It looks like there has been an attempted reconcilation between the President and officials of the conservative Motalefeh Party, who have been a traditional power behind the Bazaar. On Thursday Ahmadinejad met Habibollah Asgharowladi, Asadollah Badamchian, and Mohammad Nabi Habibi.

Friction between the President and Motalefeh had been stoked by the dispute over control of Islamic Azad University, with members of the party criticised by Ahmadinejad supporters for their defence of Parliament's position.

Meanwhile, Rah-e-Sabz posts photos of a large fire in Kerman Bazaar. The cause is unclear.

2145 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert. Ali Vakili, the managing director of Pars Oil and Gas Company, says that investment in Iran's South Pars gas field has increased by 120 percent in the current Iranian year. Vakili said the rise was the result of the issuance of 3 billion Euros in foreign currency bonds and $3.014 billion in national participation bonds.

There was no reported comment from Vakili on how bonds could assure completion of projects when foreign companies were withdrawing from South Pars.

1830 GMT: The Interrupted Memorial. Footage of the memorial for poet Ahmad Shamlou, disrupted by security forces (see 1640 GMT), has been posted.

1810 GMT: Labour Front. Operators at the Kermanshah Telecommunication Company staged a protest in front of the Kermanshah Governor’s mansion on Thursday.

1750 GMT: Picture of Day. One of a set of photographs of former Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mohsen Armin after his release from detention on $200,000 bail:



1745 GMT: Video of Day. Footage has been posted of poet Shams Langroudi reciting his work at the memorial for Amir Javadifar, killed in post-election conflict last year.

1730 GMT: A Demotion for the Supreme Leader? Reporting on a meeting of the Supreme Leader with his office staff, Rah-e-Sabz refers to "Mr Khamenei".

1653 GMT: Refugees in Germany. The first of 50 post-election Iranian refugees have arrived in Germany after they were granted asylum. The refugees, most of whom are reported to be dissident journalists, had been in Turkey.

1645 GMT: Karroubi Goes After the Guardians. Mehdi Karroubi, in a letter to Guardian Council member Ayatollah Mohammad Momen, has criticised the  Council for "institutionalizing fraud" and offering a "double-standard interpretation" of the constitution.

Karrubi alleged that the Council has become an "instrument for securing and maintaining power for a particular political faction".

1640 GMT: Blocking the Poet's Memorial. Parleman News reports that security forces have forced the cancellation of a memorial at the grave of Ahmad Shamlou, one of Iran's great contemporary poets, on the 10th anniversary of his death.

1405 GMT: Talking Tough. For Revolutionary Guard Commander Mohammad Ali Jafari, all this Government in-fighting is irrelevant: leaders of the "uproar" will be dealt with in a timely fashion.

1400 GMT: More Larijani v. Ahmadinejad. The Speaker of Parliament is in fighting mood: he has accused the Government of violating the Constitution over subsidy cuts.

1330 GMT: Parliament v. President (and It's in State Media). Press TV and the Islamic Republic News Agency breaks their usual silence on the Parliament's growing conflict with Mahoud Ahmadinejad, highlighting the issue of $2 billion for the Tehran Metro.

Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani is quoted, "Executive bodies are obliged to enforce this law after its communication. They cannot refrain from enforcing it. According to the Constitution, the president must communicate any law within a specific period of time. If a legislation is not communicated in due time the Majlis speaker will communicate it."

The Government has refused to sanction the $2 billion, possibly because of a political battle with Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf. (Former Vice President Massoumeh Ebtekar has just made this point in Rah-e-Sabz.)

1245 GMT: Academic Corner. Peyke Iran claims 13 professors at Al-Zahra University have been dismissed and students have advised to study China and Russia.

1240 GMT: Offside. The sports daily Goal has been banned for three months.

1200 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Mohsen Armin has been freed on bail of about $200,000.

An appellate court has upheld the 9 1/2-year sentence imposed on human rights activist Bahareh. Hedayat. The 7-year term of Milad Asadi has also been upheld.

1105 GMT: Parliament v. President. Another MP, Mus al-Reza Servati, has declared that the Ahmadinejad budget lacks ministerial signatures and is therefore illegal.

1045 GMT: Culture Corner. The Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance has reiterated that censorship of books and films is necessary.

1005 GMT: We have posted a separate analysis, "Rafsanjani Bowing Out?"

1000 GMT: Economy Watch. Peyke Iran claims that up to 85% of workers now have temporary employment contracts.

0925 GMT: The Universities Conflict. Raha Tahimi, writing for the Institute of War and Peace Reporting, posts a useful overview of the dispute over control of Islamic Azad University and the "temporary ceasefire" between former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and President Ahmadinejad.

0915 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. On Wednesday Mehdi Karroubi visited Narges Mohammadi, the women's rights activist who was recently released from detention.

Mohammadi continues to suffer from poor health and the lack of treatment provided when she was in prison.

0735 GMT: Cyber-Watch. Ali Aghazadeh of Parliament's National Security Commission has reportedly declared that "countless new sites need more control" by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps.

0730 GMT: Conspiracy Theory. It wasn't all cheer and sending a man into space in the President's speech on Friday (see 0649 GMT).

Ahmadinejad "revealed plans by the United States and Israel", announcing, "They [Washington] have decided to attack two of the regional Arab states, which are our allies, with the help of the Zionist regime to create fear of decision-making in Iran."

The President teased the audience by not revealing which two Arab states are under the gun. Instead, he turned to another concern, chastising Russian President Dmitry Medvedev over remarks on Tehran's nuclear programme. Ahmadinejad regretted that Medvedev had "become the mouthpiece for the plot by the enemies of Iran."

The President did say that he maintained hope for relations with Moscow.

0700 GMT: Road to Nowhere. Iranian Students News Agency claims that the Ministry of Transport owes billions of dollars to construction companies, with 500 road and rail projects unfinished. Parliament has asked the Minister of Transport not to accept plans for construction proposed after the President's recent tour of the provinces.

0655 GMT: The Supreme Leader's Back-Room Politics. Amidst the intrigues this week over Ayatollah Khamenei's "I am the Rule of the Prophet Fatwa", Rah-e-Sabz offers an analysis of the Supreme Leader's advisors, including chief of staff Asghar Hejazi, the mysterious "Mr Vahid", and Khamenei's son Mojtaba.

0649 GMT: Mahmoud Looks to the Stars. Speaking at the National Festival of Iranian Youth on Friday, President  Ahmadinejad said Iran plans to launch its first manned shuttle into space by 2019.

Ahmadinejad added that the project was scheduled for 2035 but that the launch date was reviewed in a Cabinet meeting this week. He did not offer the reason for the sudden 16-year advance in his Ministers' calculations.

0645 GMT: Energy Posture. Iranian 1st Vice President  Mohammad Reza Rahimi has said that Iran is considering the removal of the dollar and the euro from its oil trade transactions: "In our oil transactions, we will use any currency that is to our benefit.”

Reports indicate that Iran and China may start using the yuan, the Chinese currency, to settle their oil transactions. An Iranian official has also suggested the dirham, the currency of the United Arab Emirates, for business.

Following the latest UN and US  sanctions, Iran has been experiencing difficulties in carrying out its international trade deals in dollars and euros.

Iran Special: A Response to "The Plot Against Ahmadinejad" (Verde)

Mr Verde assesses EA's Saturday "exclusive" on the planning amongst leading Iranian conservatives/principlists to limit the President's authority or even remove him from office

I thank him and offer this quick addition. I fully agree that the plotters against Ahmadinejad are "trying to protect their own interests within the regime...[rather] than offering a real change of direction". The evidence from our sources may indicate that they no longer think their interests can be protected with the President in office.

But, as Mr Verde notes, their success depends on getting the Supreme Leader to accept this point of view (and possibly setting up defences against a response by the Revolutionary Guard). That success in turn needs more than the current base of planners: Hashemi Rafsanjani and senior clerics, in their view, have to be added. Until they see this as likely, the private manoeuvres of Larijani-Rezaei-Tavakoli will not become public beyond their speeches challenging the Government:

Iran Exclusive: The Plot to Remove Ahmadinejad, Act II

As the exclusive notes, under the present circumstances the possibility that Ahmadinejad is impeached by the Parliament is unlikely. They will need the signature of 1/3 of MPs to start the process and a 2/3 vote to actually impeach him.

We all saw what happened when the Majlis voted against the pro-Ahmadinejad Supreme Council for Cultural Revolution in the contest over Islamic Azad University, in which the Parliament backed down within 48 hours. In an impeachment process, we would probably witness more than a busload of thugs in front of Majlis.

Even if the president is impeached, the Supreme Leader will have the final say in dismissing him and Khamenei has invested too much on Ahmadinejad. And even if Ahmadinejad were to be dismissed, the First VP Mohammad Reza Rahimi would become an interim president. Because the planners have as many problems with Rahimi as they do with Ahmadinejad, they would have to get rid of him before moving on the President.

All this new talk of attacking and threatening Ahmadinejad by the Larijani-Rezaei axis is probably from a position of weakness rather than strength. They feel that, as a result of changes in the past few years and especially the last 12 months, Ahmadinejad and Co. are moving to limit their power and influence. With Khamenei’s intervention in the Azad University case, they have found some space to try to push back against Ahmadinejad ----the Kahrizak Prison abuse scandal and Rahimi’s corruption case are just convenient excuses. So this could be more a rear-guard action than a strategy for attack.

The events of the past year have resulted in a logjam within the Islamic Republic. The election fraud and the post-election actions by the regime have left the Republic’s reputation in pieces. Violence on behalf of the Islamic Republic against its own citizens is not new; what is new is that this time the violence has been directed at the entire population rather than targeted at specific groups, like the leftists, MKO [Mujahedin-e-Khalq], reformists, etc.

As the Supreme Leader, Khamenei has clearly said that he supports Ahmadinejad, and within the regime he has concentrated power in the hands of a small faction that is behind the President. If he were to move against Ahmadinejad now, there were be two consequences. Firstly, the people who are behind Ahmadinejad would rebel against the decision, further damaging the Supreme Leader's reputation and influence. Secondly, Khamenei would be admitting that his decision to back Ahmadinejad wholeheartedly was wrong. This would lead to more serious questions about his judgement and his ability to remain in charge. More of the Republic’s servants would doubt Khamenei as the Leader and the legitimacy of the regime and their roles with it.

Therefore, the whole existence of the Islamic Republic could be threatened if Khamenei were to try to sacrifice Ahmadinejad. This might have been possible last summer: Khamenei could have withdrawn his support of the President then and allowed him to fall. Khamenei would have been damaged too, but he could probably have gotten away with it. But since Khamenei, for whatever reason, decided to stand by Ahmadinejad, the only way he could now get rid of him is if the regime had managed to create stability in Iran. The current situation is far from that: we are witnessing new crises on a daily basis.

Some might say that Khamenei could get rid of Ahmadinejad and install someone like Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, or Secretary of Expediency Council Mohsen Rezaei. The problem is that this person would have to give in to at least some of the demands of the opposition and protestors. If that were to happen, the regime, which has been so inflexible, would suddenly have signalled to the population that ,with enough pressure, it would relent, no matter serious the issue. That could be the start of a new, and perhaps more determined, wave of opposition and protests.

Some might argue that the reformists can take over. They are too far from the centre of power at the present time. And it is increasingly looking like the reformists are facing ideological problems of their own. They seem to speak in paradoxes: both “return to the values Islamic Revolution” and “human rights”. They have not yet managed to explain how it would be possible to return to the values of the Revolution under Ayatollah Khomeini and install values like democracy, human rights, etc. The mess we are in at the present time is the result, not the abuse, of the values of the Revolution as interpreted by Khomeini. So a reformist takeover within the regime could lead to more public demands for change (and maybe even more protests) which could end up causing more damage to the Islamic Republic.

The regime in a precarious impasse with Ahmadinejad as a piece within the stalemate. If this piece is taken away in the present circumstances, it may lead to the whole structure collapsing

As far as the clerics are concerned, I think they are in a lose-lose situation. On the one hand, Ahmadinejad & Co. (with support from Khamenei) are moving to limit and weaken their power within the regime. On the other hand, the three decades of clerical rule in Iran have left them discredited. [Editor's Note: see an earlier analysis by Mr Verde, “The Escalating Crisis Within”).

Therefore any moves by Larijani-Tavakoli-Rezaei-etc against Ahamdinejad are probably more to do with them trying to protect their own interests within the regime, than a real change of direction. Otherwise, the regime could face more serious problems.

The Latest from Iran (9 July): Remembering 18 Tir?

Editor's Note: A technical glitch means that Comments are now closed on this page. Further comments and discussion continue on the 10 July updates page.

2125 GMT: Who Could He Mean? And ahead of tomorrow, another glance at a statement by Ali Larijani on Thursday: "Whoever stands against the law is committing rebellion and everyone should obey the law, or the Parliament will stand against him. It makes no sense that ordinary people obey the law but some of the officials do not."

2040 GMT: Heat Alert. The Ahmadinejad Government has announced that Sunday and Monday will be public holidays --- Saturday is a religious holiday --- because of the "extreme heat".

We presume that they mean the high air temperatures in the country rather than any extreme political heat they may be feeling amidst Bazaar strikes, conservative intrigues, etc.

NEW Iran Document: Detained Student Leader Tavakoli on 18 Tir & Protest (6 July)
NEW Iran Analysis: Assessing the Bazaar Strikes & a Political Twist (Verde)
Iran Document: Mousavi on UN Sanctions & Ahmadinejad Government (7 July)
Iran Snap Analysis: The Wave of Economic Discontent?
The Latest from Iran (8 July): Criticisms

2025 GMT: Important but Overlooked News? For reasons we will explain tomorrow, we think that this speech by Seyed Ahmad Dastghaib, the reformist PM of Shiraz, in the Majlis might be significant.....

Dastghaib said, "Unfortunately today many of Imam [Khomeini]’s speeches are not being said to the people". Then, using those speeches, he dropped his political bombshell: "If the top person in the country does wrong, Islam will depose him. He is not suitable for ruling and he is a Dictator."

In case anyone was not sure to whom Dastghaib was referring, he clarified that anyone can criticise the Supreme Leader.

Dastghaib also asserted, from Khomeini's words that broadcasters should be independent of the government and must broadcast everyone's opinion. Military forces must not interfere in the political and economic fields. And it is against Islamic law to attack or insult any cleric.

1935 GMT: It is reported that the Feminist School website has been filtered for the 15th time.

1925 GMT: Poster of the Day? It is claimed that this is a poster at the Tehran Bazaar: "Join the Strikes".



1430 GMT: Remembering. A group from the Mothers of Mourning, remembering their detained and killed children, have visited the memorial site for Cyrus the Great to denounce the oppression and injustices being committed against Iran's youth. The group then visited the home of imprisoned student activist Majid Tavakoli to share their empathy with his mother.

1315 GMT: Your Tehran Friday Prayer Update. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami taking charge today, and I have to say it's a pretty impressive performance from the fiery fellow.

Sure, he starts with the standard denunciation of Israel in the Middle East and of US and European sanctions against Iran but then he gets distinctive with his criticism, bringing in the July 1988 incident when the USS Vincennes shot down an Iranian civilian airliner, killing 290 people.

And then he's nimbly onto the cultural front, warning Iranians that they should not be misled by "Los Angeles singers". Tolerance, he says, must not only "cultural"; it must also be "political".

So how does all this fit together? Khatami name-checks 18 Tir (9 July) 1999 and the demonstrations against the Iranian regime . What was it? A great occasion to learn of the US threat and to neutralise it (and its Los Angeles singers).

1310 GMT: Culture Corner. According to Green Voice of Iran, famous singer Mohammad Nouri, artist of songs such as "Maryam", has rejected an offer of assistance from the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance.

1250 GMT: Responding to the Bazaar Strike. Javan News, linked to the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, has offered a special reaction to this week's developments in the Tehran Bazaar, "Angelina Jolie and Half-Naked Women Instead of Traditional Rug Designs":

There were wall carpets bearing half-bare women and girls, and the faces of [Indian superstar] Aishwarya Rai, Angelina Jolie, Nicole Kidman, and some Iranian actresses were more prominently displayed than [traditional rug designs]...., master rug weavers, who in the old days would not sit before their looms before performing ablution, now weave pictures of skulls and swastikas of Satanist groups into Iranian carpets. And even more regretfully, the bulk of rug traders' orders to weavers consists of vulgar pictures of women in various poses.


1230 GMT: Rumour of the Day (Week? Month?). Back from an academic break and then some checking with sources. Here's the story as we have it so far....

In recent days, there has been a meeting involving Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, 2009 Presidential candidate and Secretary of Expediency Council Mohsen Rezaei, and key member of Parliament and Larijani ally Ahmad Tavakoli. MP Ali Motahari may also have been present.

The meeting discussed the current political and economic situation and the tensions with the Ahmadinejad Government. We have reason to believe that there may be serious consideration of how and when to limit President Ahmadinejad's authority and possibly remove him from office. Specifically, those in the meeting were hoping to open up discussions with former President Hashemi Rafsanjani on the next steps.

(EA readers will recall that a similar initiative was reportedly discussed in January between Larijani, Rezaei, and Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf. That effort seemed to have been put on hold by the apparent success of the Government in restricting opposition on 22 Bahman/11 February.)

We hope to have more information and a full analysis on this development tomorrow.
0935 GMT: Grounding the Aircraft? A bit more on this week's tale that Iranian flights were being denied fuel by suppliers in Britain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Germany....

A Hamburg Airport spokeswoman said two Iranian aircraft took off without refuelling, one on Saturday and one on Wednesday: "We can confirm that these aircraft flew from Hamburg but did not take on fuel here. We cannot say where they flew to or where they refuelled."

0930 GMT: Propaganda Ploy. Green Voice of Iran claims a new creative tactic from Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting: fabricating "statements" by Mir Hosseni Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, and Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti by splicing together clips from their older speeches.

0920 GMT: Remembering. Thousands of people reported visited Beheshte Zahra cemetery yesterday afternoon in memory of last year's victims. Services for Mohsen Rouholamini, who was abused and killed in Kahrizak Prison, will be next Thursday.

Green Voice of Iran reviews the story of the post-election abuses in Kahrizak.

Peyke Iran posts photographs of families of detainees gathering on Wednesday outside Evin Prison.

0910 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? So let's check President Ahmadinejad's response to all these internal developments and tensions....

Speaking in Nigeria at the meeting of the Group of Eight Developing Countries, Ahmadinejad declared, "The UN should be in a free place, away from the US domination."

0905 GMT: Pressure on Ahmadinejad. Two stories in Rooz Online English which parallel our coverage....

Bahram Rafiee reviews this week's challenge by MP Ahmad Tavakoli to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who "weakens the judiciary and law", and Mohammad Reza Yazdanpanah, like EA's Mr Verde today, picks up the claims by Abbas Palizdar, the former MP who was jailed for verbal attacks on senior clergy and who now says he was acting on behalf of Ahmadinejad's camp.

0815 GMT: We have published the English translation of a statement by detained student leader Majid Tavakoli on 18 Tir, the anniversary of the 1999 demonstrations, and protest today.

0730 GMT: Parliament v. President. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has declared that the Majlis will stand firmly against "lawbreakers" --- a reference to Ahmadinejad's maneouvres v. Parliament over his 5th Budget Plan? --- and defend people's rights

Reformist MP Dariush Ghanbari has said that a plan to question Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, specifically over reparations from Iraq, is being prepared.

0720 GMT: The Bazaar Dispute. An EA correspondent reports that a meeting between Iranian officials and Bazaari representatives may not have gone too well. It is said to have ended in a clash with one official, Ali Asgari, leaving angrily. Bazaaris shouted at journalists to keep the other officials from departing and to make them give suitable answers.

There were also new reports that men in plainclothes were trying to get shopkeepers to open on Wednesday.

A bit of clarification. Yesterday was a religious holiday in Iran, so the Bazaar would normally have been closed, rather than "on strike"; Saturday is also a religious holiday. 0715 GMT: A Bit of Mischief over Ahmadinejad's Journeys. Khabar Online reports on President Ahmadinejad's visit to Mali and features this photo:



An EA correspondent says that, in Persian, "to put a hat on someone's head" --- in this case, a turban --- can mean cheating him.

0710 GMT: Mousavi's Statements Keep On Coming. Hard on the heels of his analysis this week of UN sanctions and the Ahmadinejad Government, Mir Hossein Mousavi has put out a statement declaring that the Green Movement welcomes diversity.

0540 GMT: We have posted an analysis by Mr Verde of the significance of this week's strikes in the Tehran Bazaar and of a new political development that may be trouble for President Ahmadinejad.

0535 GMT: Writing at insideIRAN, Sohrab Razzaghi, a former official in the Ministry of Interior, has posted a series of recommendations to strengthen Iran's civil society:

• Creation of social networks to support the political and civil liberties movement in Iran and starting talks with Iran’s civil rights and political activists to enhance human rights and democracy

• Building of civil societies, with assistance from the international community to help civil society activists in capacity-building and related efforts.

• Promotion of human rights in Iran in various levels and for various segments of society.

• Education of a new generation of political activists and human rights defenders

• Enhancement of the free flow of information among Iranian citizens.

0530 GMT: Parliament v. President. Footage has been posted of Press TV interviews, in Persian, with members of Parliament over the attacks by leading MP Ahmad Tavakoli on the Ahmadinejad Government.

0515 GMT: Execution Watch. Amidst international pressure, Iranian authorities have announced that Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, sentenced to death for adultery, will not be stoned. However, there is no indication that the threat of execution has been lifted.

0445 GMT: Today in Iran is 18 Tir. On the eve of this date in 1999, students began what would become the most widespread public protests since the 1979 Revolution. After a raid by security forces on a dormitory, the demonstrations escalated. Several people were killed in injured, hundreds were injured, and more than 1000 were estimated to have been detained.

So far, we have little news of public commemoration of the event. It may be notable that it is already in the mid-90s (35 degrees Celsius) in Tehran --- local time 9:15 a.m. --- and the temperature is projected to reach 107-108 (42 Celsius). So if there is a gathering of note, it may not take place until late afternoon.

Meanwhile....

Political Prisoner Watch

EA correspondents point us to a new report by human rights activists, in Persian, on conditions in a number of detention centres.

The Latest from Iran (8 July): Criticisms

1633 GMT: We have posted the English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement on Wednesday about UN sanctions, foreign policy, and the weaknesses and abuses of the Ahmadinejad Government.

1630 GMT: A Message from Evin Prison. A Green website has posted what it claims is a message from student leader Majid Tavakoli for 18 Tir (9 July), the 11th anniversary of university demonstrations.

NEW Iran Document: Mousavi on UN Sanctions & Ahmadinejad Government (7 July)
NEW Iran Snap Analysis: The Wave of Economic Discontent?
NEW Iran Analysis: Crisis…What Crisis? (Verde)
NEW Iran’s New Haircut Law: First Culprit Identified!
The Latest from Iran (7 July): Mousavi's Intervention

1530 GMT: The Universities Crisis. Hamid Farokhnia at Tehran Bureau offers an extensive review of the political battle over Islamic Azad University from 2006 to the present.

1525 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. Oil traders said Iran is buying about half of its gasoline imports in July from Turkey and the rest from Chinese suppliers.

Traders estimate Iran will import around 90,000 barrels per day of gasoline in July, steady from June.

1520 GMT: Labour Front. More than 180 workers at Alborz China Manufacturing Company in Qazvin, staged a protest in front of the factory gates on Tuesday. The workers claim they are owed wages for more than six months.

1515 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran claims that Iranian authorities are victimizing political prisoners by subjecting them to dangerously unhealthy prison conditions and refusing them medical treatment when they become ill.

Spokesperson Hadi Ghaemi said, “Iran is targeting prisoners of conscience by subjecting them to overcrowding, disease, inadequate accommodations, insanitary conditions, malnutrition, and lack of access to medical care.”

1445 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Peyke Iran is claiming that the strike in the Tehran Bazaar has continued into a third day, despite the detention of one of the leaders (see 0755 GMT).

This is claimed footage of a strike today in the rug market in Tabriz:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5TdKg17rvU[/youtube]

And the bazaar in Mashaad:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQ0F3NSDnMk[/youtube]

1435 GMT: Condemning the Stoning. Foreign intervention in the case of Sakineh Mohammadi-Ashtiani, the woman sentenced to death by stoning for adultery....

Britain's Foreign Office Minister Alistair Burt has called on Iran to put an immediate stay to the execution. On Tuesday, Norway's State Secretary Espen Barth Eide summoned the Iranian Ambassador, Seyed Hossein Rezvani, to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to denounce Mohammadi-Ashtiani's sentence and that of Mohammad Reza Haddadi, condemned to death for an crime allegedly committed when he was a minor.

1430 GMT: Back from an extended break for work with the Journal of American Studies. Many thanks to readers for keeping news and analysis flowing....

0808 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz features the letter of Hashem Khastar, union activist and retired teacher, to Iran's judiciary on the "human catastrophe" in the prisons.

0805 GMT: The Battle Within. Conservative MP Hossein Ghafouri-Fard has said that the atmosphere is still "too agitated" for establishing a new political party.

0800 GMT: Counter-attack. The President's judicial deputy, Fatemeh Bodaghi, has asserted that Government complaints against the office of Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf are still at a "preliminary stage".

0755 GMT: The Bazaar Strike. Rah-e-Sabz, in a lengthy overview of the strike in the Tehran Bazaar, claims that protests continued yesterday with shouts such as "Death to the Dictator!". The website also asserts that one leader of the strike was taken away by security and plainclothes forces to an unknown location.

0745 GMT: Protest Then, Protest Now. More than 30 Iranian students' organisations based overseas have issued a statement for the 11th anniversary of student demonstrations on 18 Tir (9 July) and holding up the university as "a pillar of civil society".

0725 GMT: Mousavi's Statement. Green Voice of Freedom has an extended English summary of the comments by Mir Hossein Mousavi on sanctions, the economy, and the mismanagement of the Government.

0700 GMT: We begin this morning with a snap analysis moving between the latest statement of Mir Hossein Mousavi and the strike in the Tehran Bazaar, "The Wave of Economic Discontent".

That, however, is only a snapshot of the latest tensions. Consider....

Parliament v. President

Alef summarises the latest criticisms by principlist member of Parliament, Ahmad Tavakoli, in a Tuesday speech in the Majlis. Tavakoli attacked the "inefficiency" and "weakness" of the Ahmadinejad Government and, getting specific about the post-election crisis, wondered when someone would be held accountable for the Kahrizak prison abuses.

An EA correspondent adds that, in an online poll by Khabar Online asking about Tavakoli's attack on the "lawlessness" of Ahmadinejad, "only" 89% agreed with the member of Parliament. (The somewhat tongue-in-cheek assessment of our correspondent should also be accompanied by the reminder that Khabar Online is linked to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, the cousin of Tavakoli.)

Calling the Government to Account

Member of Parliament Assadollah Badamchian has insisted that the Article 90 Commission of the Majlis has the right to question the President about his management and handling of laws.

Hojatoleslam Hossein Sobhani-nia has asserted that the Minister of Interior minister could be summoned to the Majlis over the recent Basiji/student protests against Parliament's legislation on Islamic Azad University.

In contrast, MP Bijan Nobaveh has declared that accusing the Government of "rowdyism" is "treacherous" behaviour.