Israel-Palestine Analysis: What Message Has the Arab League Sent? (And To Whom?)

On Thursday, the Arab League supposedly made its decision. The Qatari prime minister Hamed Ben Jasem al-Thani announced that the group would support Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas if he decided to enter negotiations with Israel. Many newspapers reported that the Arab League gave the "green light" for direct talks.

Did it?

In a letter to the Obama Administration, the League stated that it needed a clear timeframe, specific terms of reference, and a monitoring mechanism to support direct talks. Indeed, al-Thani said, "There is agreement, but only about the way the talks will be held and the subjects that will be discussed."

That's not a green light but a yellow one. The Arab League has avoided blame as "the supporter of Palestinians at any cost" and saved its credibility in the eyes of the US. At the same time it has not given an unqualified endorsement of discussions.

So, where is the ball? It may seem like it is in the court of Ramallah --- will Abbas finally ease back on his insistence that the Israelis commit now to the 1967 borders and to a freeze on settlements? --- but it is actually in Washington. With its own "conditions", the League has supported Abbas' call for a clear definition on the borders and any land swaps and for a transparent timetable for discussions and implementation of measures. Arab League chief Amr Moussa reiterated, "I assure you I am not of the intention to enter into negotiations, without a time frame, without clear references and without monitoring."

The question: will the Obama Administration insist on prominent steps by Israel, steps beyond the chant of "talks, talks, talks", before the settlements freeze ends on 26 September?

Middle East Inside Line: Arab League & Israel-Palestine, British PM on Gaza "Prison Camp", Separation Fence Scandal

Thorny Road to Direct Israel-Palestine Talks: Arab League Foreign Ministers are meeting today in Cairo.

Talking to Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Moratinos in Jerusalem on Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that continuing the construction freeze on West Bank settlements would be impossible politically and would bring down the coalition.

A Palestinian official told Reuters, "Abbas will tell [the Arab League] that, until this moment, there is nothing to convince us to go to direct talks.”

Israel-Palestine: Abbas’ Conditions, Netanyahu’s “Eastern Front” Response

Haaretz claims from Palestinian sources that Abbas will seek unequivocal clarifications from the US that the framework for direct talks will include a declaration that the Palestinian state will be based on the borders of 4 June 1967, with adjustments will be based on agreed exchanges of territory. The PA also wants an Israeli declaration that the construction freeze on settlements will continue and that building in East Jerusalem will stop.

Israeli cabinet minister Isaac Herzog (Labor Party) summarizes the dilemma of a "chicken-and-egg" situation. Talking to Israel Radio, he said:

Abu Mazen (Abbas) says: "I don't want to enter direct negotiations until I know what the final result will be."

Netanyahu says: "Enter direct negatiations and I will also tell you what the final result will be."

Each one looks at it opposite, and we are in a sort of political trap.

Britain's Cameron in Turkey, Comments on Gaza: British Prime Minister David Cameron made his first official visit to Turkey, warning European countries about anti-Muslim prejudice and the slow pace of accession talks with Turkey. He told Turkish businessmen:

When I think about what Turkey has done to defend Europe as a NATO ally and what Turkey is doing now in Afghanistan alongside European allies, it makes me angry that your progress towards EU membership can be frustrated in the way it has been. I believe it's just wrong to say Turkey can guard the camp but not be allowed to sit inside the tent.

Cameron's counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan called Israel’s raid on the Freedom Flotilla an act of “piracy” and compared Israeli officials to Somali pirates. Cameron said that the incident was “completely unacceptable” and called for a speedy and transparent Israeli inquiry into the incident. Cameron also sharpened his tone on Gaza:

The situation in Gaza has to change. Humanitarian goods and people must flow in both directions. Gaza cannot and must not be allowed to remain a prison camp.

The Israeli embassy in the U.K. responded to Cameron quickly:

The people of Gaza are the prisoners of the terrorist organization Hamas. The situation in Gaza is the direct result of Hamas’ rule and priorities.

We know that the Prime Minister would also share our grave concerns about our own prisoner in the Gaza Strip, Gilad Shalit, who has been held hostage there for over four years, without receiving a single Red Cross visit.

Separation Fence Scandal: EA has already reported that Walajeh, a village in the Bethlehem Governorate 8.5 kilometres (5.3 miles) to the southwest of Jerusalem, is in danger of being cut off from the rest of Palestinian lands, leaving 2,000 villagers encircled by Israeli settlements, roads, and security barriers.

In a court hearing on Sunday, it emerged that the order to expropriate village lands for the fence, which enabled the work to begin, had expired a year ago. However, instead of ordering a halt to the work, the court issued an injunction requiring the state to explain within 45 days why construction should not be stopped.

The Society for the Protection of Nature in Israel and Palestinian villagers say that since the injunction was issued, the Defense Ministry and the contractors have been working much faster than before.

The Cost of an Eye: Emily Henochowicz, an Israeli-American studying at the Bezalel Academy of Art in Jerusalem, lost her left eye when Border Guards fired a tear gas canister during a demonstration following the raid on Freedom Flotilla.

According to Henochowicz, one policeman shot a canister directly at her face. Haaretz says that one of its reporter also witnessed the incident.

Following her treatment in Jerusalem, her father was handed a bill for NIS 14,000 (around $3,600). The Ministry of Defense refused to pay, claiming the tear gas was not fired directly at Henochowicz. The statement accused Henochowicz of putting herself at risk by voluntarily participating in a breach of the peace and accused:

From our reports, we know that the Border Police acted in accordance with the law at the violent demonstration at Qalandia, and that the shooting of tear gas canisters at demonstrators was justified. Of course, we regret that Emily Henochowicz was wounded in her eye. But under such circumstances, the Defense Ministry does not cover the expenses of medical treatment.

To Lift The Spirits (Sequel): Dancing with Matt...in Gaza

In January 2009, we posted a video made by Matt Harding, who filmed himself dancing --- sometimes by himself, sometimes with others --- in locations around the world. (It's re-posted at the end of this entry.)

That life-affirming video now has more than 30 million hits, and Harding's second film has been viewed more than 15 million times.

But here is the ultimate sequel. "Dancing with Matt" has now gone to Gaza.

The United Nations Relief and Works Agency, whose officials are relatively free from Israeli restrictions on entry into the Palestinian territory, invited Harding to "teach" his dancing to local children. An official explained, “This is an important message: kids in Gaza are like kids anywhere in the world. All they want is to have fun. If allowed to be, Gaza can be a normal place where children can thrive.”

And that for me is the most wonderful of ironies: the reason why I posted the first "Dancing with Matt" video in January 2009 was to offset the depressing, soul-sapping news of military operations taking civilian lives.

You can probably guess where that war was taking place.

Go Matt. Go Gaza. Go UNRWA.

The 2008 Video

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlfKdbWwruY&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

Middle East Inside Line: Abbas-US Tension, Netanyahu's "Political Risk", More Gaza Flotillas?, UN-Israeli Relations

Palestinian Leader Abbas Presses US: Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas, talking to his Fatah Party, said that he wants a more specific US commitment on the borders of a future Palestinian state before agreeing to direct talks with Israel.

During a phone conversation after his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Obama reportedly pledged Abbas that he would forth ut his own map if Netanyahu did not bring one before the winter. However, it appears that Abbas wants something more concrete: “With all due respect to the American president, his message was not clear. We want clear answers to questions we presented to the Americans, especially regarding security, borders and the status of Jerusalem. We continue to insist that any negotiations with Israel be based on recognition of 1967 as the future borders of the Palestinian state.”

Middle East Inside Line: Turkey-Hamas-Israel, Netanyahu Denies “Map”, No Russia Missiles to Iran?

Next week, the Fatah Central Committee and the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization are scheduled to hold meetings in Ramallah on the peace process and the financial crisis within Fatah.

US Responds to Abbas: State Department spokesman Philip J. Crowley said that final status issues are to be discussed in direct talks. Asked whether or not the United States had an idea of what the borders of the future Palestinian state would look like, Crowley said that Washington would " play a constructive role, but ultimately this is a - this is something that the parties themselves have to resolve."

But the question is: So why did we have the proximity talks? With no fruitful consequences, this process in prior to the expected/pressured direct talks is far from facilitating the reflexes of both parties, especially of the Palestinians.

Netanyahu's "Political Risks": On Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the European Union's foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton that he is ready to take a political risk to reach an agreement with the Palestinians, but only if he does not have to take a security risk.

Netanyahu did not say whether he will end the freeze on Israeli construction in the West bank but Minister of Intelligence and Atomic Energy Dan Meridor told Army Radio on Tuesday that, at the end of September, Israel will no longer be bound by it:

My view is that it would be wrong to build in places where there will be a Palestinian state. But it would be right to build in places that are destined to be part of the State of Israel, in the settlement blocs and the communities along the [separation] fence. The government needs to discuss this.

Israel Defense Force Strikes: On Wednesday, Israeli Defense Forces fired uon a group of Palestinians approaching Gaza's northern border with Israel. It is reported that two people were killed, one of whom is claimed to be a top Islamic Jihad militant. Palestinian medical workers say seven people were wounded, including a 10-year-old girl.

Later Wednesday, the IDF fired at a group of Palestinians attempting to infiltrate the West Bank settlement of Barkan, killing one of them. The IDF spokesperson's office said that the casualty was armed though the group was trying to enter the settlement for criminal and not terror-related purposes.

Other Flotillas Coming?: After the Turkish organisation IHH, backers of the Freedom Flotilla, stated that there will be more convoys to break the siege, another flotilla is reportedly being organized by Palestinian businessman Yasser Kashlak, who last month tried and failed to organise ships from Lebanon. The two ships are slated to sail from Libya by the end of this week.

The Israeli Foreign Ministry instructed ambassadors to ask senior officials in the US, United Nations, European Union, and Egypt to pressure Syria and Lebanon to stop the flotilla. Officials think that Cairo will help again as it did when recently diverting the Amalthea to its port of el-Arish.

It is also reported that American activists are trying to raise funds for their own ship to Gaza, which they plan to call The Audacity of Hope, the same title as a book by President Obama.

Israel's F-35 Dream Coming True?: Israel is expected to make a decision in the coming weeks regarding the purchase of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF), senior defense officials said on Wednesday.

If Israel receives the jets, which will not be before 2015, it will be the first foreign country using them.

Israel is primarily concerned with the price of the aircraft, which could go as high as close to $150 million each. Therefore, officials are still considering whether it would be a better idea to get F-15s from Boeing.

UN-Israel Relations: On Wednesday, the UN Undersecretary-General for Political Affairs reported to the Security Council that aid convoys like May's Freedom Flotilla “are not helpful to resolving the basic economic problems in Gaza and needlessly carry the potential for escalation”. However, the report continued to call “for a prompt, impartial, credible and transparent investigation conforming to international standards” regarding the 31 May attack on the Flotilla. While the report underlined "the Quartet's efforts to bring direct negotiations", it said, "The prospect of expulsion from their home city of Palestinian legislators in east Jerusalem would be a serious step backwards and would undermine hopes of making political progress."

In response, Israel's Ambassador Gabriela Shalev underlined Israel's two demands: right to security from threats and recognition as a Jewish state. She said, "A request that Israel recognize a Palestinian state as the nation-state of the Palestinian people must be met with an acknowledgment that Israel is the nation-state of the Jewish people."

Shalev called on Hamas to release detained Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit and explained the definition of "peace": "Peace is not merely a signed document. It is a set of values that allows us all to live our lives in security and with hope –-- Israelis and Palestinian alike."

Middle East Inside Line: Syria-Turkey-Lebanon Condemn Israel, Netanyahu Map "Gap", Israel's Iron Dome System

Syria-Turkey-Lebanon Condemning Israel: Syria and its "greatest hope" Turkey again condemned Israel over its deadly intervention against the Freedom Flotilla on 31 May. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri were both present in Damascus as leaders called on the international community to add more pressure for an international probe and to urge Israel to lift the blockade on Gaza.

What Is "The Gap" Between Israel & Palestine?: Following the meeting this weekend between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Egyptian counterpart Hosni Mubarak, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit said more work needs to be done to bridge the gap between Israel and the Palestinians before they can move to direct peace talks.

Israel-Palestine Analysis: What is the Obama Administration Seeking?
Middle East Inside Line: Israel-Palestine Moves in Cairo, Netanyahu-Lieberman Feud, No Smoking Pipes for Gaza Women

What is that gap? According to the London-based A-Sharq al-Awsat, Netanyahu showed Mubarak a map outlining his vision for a final settlement with the Palestinians. The Egyptian President refused publication of this because it is far from the demands of Palestinians for a future state based on 1967 lines with agreed land swaps. Mubarak reportedly told Netanyahu to redraft the map.

Israel's Iron Dome Defense System & Its Cost: The "Iron Dome" short- and medium-range rocket-defense system successfully completed its last round of tests Monday, the Defense Ministry and the Israel Defense Forces said.

There may be a longer-term issue with the system, however. Last week, the government took a decision to cut 2.7 billion shekels ($700 million) from the defense budget. Some IDF generals in IDF argue that it is better to focus on offense using air forces to hit strategic targets rather than deploying defense batteries, but Defense Minister Ehud Barak promised Monday that the Iron Dome batteries would soon be operational.

Currently, Israel has two batteries, each costing between 40 and 50 million shekels. Israel is soon going to receive a special aid package of $250 million from the US, a sum that is meant to cover the purchase of up to nine Iron Dome batteries. However, estimates speak of a need for at least 20 batteries to cover the Galilee and the Negev from missile threats from Lebanon and Gaza. Radar systems and interceptor missiles also have to be deployed.

Al-Qaeda Targets Arab League: The group's second man, Ayman al-Zawahiri, bombarded Arab leaders for having "surrendered" to Israel after their last summit in March. In the video, he said:

Arabs met in Sirte, (Libya), and they only came out with what they call strategic peace choice. What strategic peace choice, when they are sending a message of surrender to Israel that 'We have given up, so do whatever you like in Palestine'?