Egypt Analysis: A Practical Government's Moves on Gaza (Yenidunya)

On Saturday, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit criticized the US for failing to advance the Middle East peace process. Gheit said that the conduct of Washington's envoy to the region, George Mitchell, would not bring about a settlement even 10 years from now. Later, he told the Egyptian daily al-Masry al-Youm that the Arab League will turn to the United Nations Security Council to declare an independent Palestinian state if talks between Israel and the Palestinians do not bear fruit by September.

Meanwhile, the Ma'an News Agency reports that more than 20,000 residents have traveled through the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt since Cairo announced its indefinite opening on 1 June. According to the Gaza crossings authority, 10,531 residents left Gaza while 10,172 have returned so far. Only 1,865 of those who left Gaza have permission to reside in Egypt; the rest must go back.

Meanwhile, Cairo is continuing its leading role in indirect negotiations between Hamas and the Israeli government on a prisoner swap in for Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier held by Hamas for four years.

Amidst all these purported moves for resolution, Cairo banned an Arab delegation including 15 members of the Arab countries, headed by Assistant Secretary-General of the Union of Arab Lawyers, Abdel-Azim Al Maghribi, from entering Gaza on Saturday. Hamas responded with a call for the delegation to enter Gaza and to assist their humanitarian mission.

Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri also told the Palestinian Information Center that the measures taken at the Rafah crossing do not reflect any change in Egyptian intentions to move goods and people from and into Gaza.

Israel & the US: Who is Offering Concessions at Home and Abroad? (Yenidunya)

The war continues between the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman.

After Ministry of Industry Benjamin Ben Eliezer's secret talks in Zurich with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, Lieberman --- not informed of the mission --- forced Netanyahu step back and apologize.

Petraeus Plays Politics: The General’s E-Mail Scheming on Israel (Mondoweiss)
Israel-Turkey Analysis: Netanyahu Saves Face with Foreign Minister by Snubbing Ankara and Washington (Yenidunya)

On Sunday, there was another move to curb the Premier's power. The Ministerial Committee on Legislation considered a proposal giving the Knesset the power to veto an extension of a government-imposed freeze on the building of Jewish settlements in the West Bank. Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party ordered its members to vote for the measure whereas Netanyahu phoned cabinet ministers from his Likud party in the hope of persuading them to oppose the transfer of authority.

On his eve of his meeting with President Obama in Washington, Netanyahu overcame another domestic challenge, as the Committee voted down the proposal. For now, there is no barrier to lawmakers continuing the "temporary and one-time freeze" in the West Bank.

Netanyahu has other "concessions" in his pocket before going to Washington. The Israeli Government voted on Sunday to expand the authority of the Turkel Commission investigating Israel's raid of a Gaza-bound aid flotilla. According to a statement released by the Prime Minister's Office, new powers will allow the commission to subpoena witnesses and receive sworn testimony. However, the government added, "The decision excludes Israel Defense Force soldiers,"  a move designed to maintain the independence of a separate military investigation already in progress.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak will meet Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad on Monday, the first encounter between the two politicians since February and asign of progress in indirect US-mediated talks. And  the Foreign Ministry will publish on Monday its official "blacklist" of goods that will not be allowed to enter the Gaza Strip. The list  will mainly consist of weapons and "problematic dual use" material that could be used to create them. Any items not listed will be permitted to enter Gaza.

Before November’s midterm election, President Obama also wants to show progress to boost his credibility in handling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, this time, instead of continuing the friction with the incoming Israeli delegation, Obama will  probably employ a very different approach.

The Jerusalem Post reports that Obama will accept Netanyahu's suggestion of  ultimate Israeli control over the major settlement blocs and an extension of the freeze in all areas outside these blocs in the West Bank. The newspaper portrays this as the acceptance of President George W. Bush’s 2004 letter to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

Petraeus Plays Politics: The General's E-Mail Scheming on Israel (Mondoweiss)

Sunday's media headlines are dominated by the soundbite of General David Petraeus, the new US commander in Afghanistan, on the conflict --- "We in it to win it" --- backed up by glowing references for his record, notably the supposed success of the "surge" under his supervision in Iraq in 2007/8.

Regular readers will know that I am a sceptic of Petraeus' well-crafted military reputation but am a great admirer of his political skills. So, amidst the weekend's cheerleading, I have noted an illuminating story from Mondoweiss.

In March EA noted an apparently dramatic stance by Petraeus warning that the US had to confront the Israel-Palestine issue, if necessary talking tough to West Jerusalem, if its broader policy from the Middle East to Central Asia was to be successful. Little did we know that, behind the scenes, Petraeus was putting out the message that he did not hold the views --- including the need for pressure on Israel --- set out in his written testimony to Congress:

Israel & the US: Who is Offering Concessions at Home and Abroad? (Yenidunya)
Israel-Turkey Analysis: Netanyahu Saves Face with Foreign Minister by Snubbing Ankara and Washington (Yenidunya)

Last March General David Petraeus, then head of Central Command, sought to undercut his own testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee that was critical of Israel by intriguing with a right-wing writer to put out a different story, in emails obtained by Mondoweiss.

The emails show Petraeus encouraging Max Boot of Commentary to write a story-- and offering the neoconservative writer choice details about his views on the Holocaust:

Does it help if folks know that I hosted Elie Wiesel and his wife at our quarters last Sun night?! And that I will be the speaker at the 65th anniversary of the liberation of the concentration camps in mid-Apr at the Capitol Dome...

Petraeus passed the emails along himself through carelessness last March. He pasted a Boot column from Commentary's blog into in an "FYI" email he sent to an activist who is highly critical of the U.S.'s special relationship with Israel. Some of the general's emails to Boot were attached to the bottom of the story. The activist, James Morris, shared the emails with me.

The tale:

Back on March 13, Mark Perry broke the explosive story that Gen. David Petraeus was echoing Joe Biden's view that the special relationship with Israel is endangering Americans. Perry said that Petraeus had sent aides to the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the White House to tell him that the U.S.'s inability to stand up to Israel was hurting Americans across the Middle East. Perry reported that Petraeus was asking that Israel and Palestine be included under his Central Command (rather than under Europe, as they are now).

On March 16, neocon Max Boot, who is on the Council of Foreign Relations and holds militarist pro-Israel views (he's an American Jew born in Russia), sought to refute Perry's post at the Commentary blog:

I asked a military officer who is familiar with the briefing in question and with Petraeus’s thinking on the issue to clarify matters. He told me that Perry’s item was "incorrect".

Boot quoted the unnamed officer at some length apologizing for Israel:

He did not suggest that Petraeus was mainly blaming Israel and its settlements for the lack of progress. They are, he said, “one of many issues, among which also is the unwillingness to recognize Israel and the unwillingness to confront the extremists who threaten Israelis.” That’s about what I expected: Petraeus holds a much more realistic and nuanced view than the one attributed to him by terrorist groupie Mark Perry.

I suspect this unnamed officer was Petraeus himself-- based on the emails. But we'll get to them in a minute.

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The Latest from Iran (1 July): Establishing the Pattern

2025 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert: Deputy Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance Behrouz Alishiri has said that new UN sanctions have proven futile, as transactions in Iran's investment market have risen 10 percent since the passage of the UN resolution.

Alishiri added that, according to the reports of the International Monetary Fund, foreign investment in Iran rose from $900 million in 2007 to $3 billion in 2009.

NEW Iran Interview: Ahmad Batebi “The Green Movement Goes Underground”
Iran Eyewitness: “Life Continues for People…With the Hope of Change” (Fatemeh)
Iran Special: The Significance of the “Universities Crisis” (Verde)
The Latest from Iran (30 June): Assessing “Crisis”

1925 GMT: Oil Squeeze. Lloyd’s of London, the insurance market, is recognising US sanctions by restricting cover for any ships carrying petroleum to Iran.

1815 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? Well, this weekend, the President will visit Nigeria.

It could be that Ahmadinejad fancies a change of scenery. Perhaps he got one of those special e-mails offering him a lot of money if he helped get the funds of a late President/General/businessman out of the country. Or maybe there is some connection with Nigeria taking over the presidency of the United Nations Security Council.

1805 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Activists report that Narges Mohammadi , the vice-chair of Shirin Ebadi's Center for the Defenders of Human Rights, has been released on $50,000 bail.

1800 GMT: Speaking of Universities and Threats. BBC Persian reports that some applicants for Iran's universities have received a threatening text message warning that, if they participated in post-election protests last year, they will be ineligible for acceptance regardless of their performance on entrance examinations.

The head of the government agency that administers the examinations has harshly criticised the sending of the messages. Iran Unfiltered concludes that this is an example of "hardline" elements of the regime acting without the consent and probably the prior knowledge of officials.

1750 GMT: The Universities Crisis. The dispute between Parliament and President over Islamic Azad University, analysed by EA's Mr Verde yesterday, has finally hit the non-Iranian mainstream press. The Guardian of London offers a summary, framing the battle as "a bitter political battle for control between President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his most powerful rival, Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani".

1740 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Labour activists claim that the Iranian government has informed the International Labour Organization that Mansour Osanloo, a leader of Tehran's bus union, is due for release.

The Interational Transport Workers Federation and the International Trade Union Confederation have welcomed the news but also insisted that 52 other innocent trade unionists should be freed.

1605 GMT: Cyber-Shelter. Reporters Without Borders has launched the world’s first “Anti-Censorship Shelter” for use by foreign journalists, bloggers, and activists.

The organization said at a gathering in Paris, "At a time when online filtering and surveillance is becoming more and more widespread, we are making an active commitment to an Internet that is unrestricted and accessible to all by providing the victims of censorship with the means of protecting their online information.”

The initiative, pursued with the communications security firm XeroBank, offers free high-speed anonymity services, including encrypted email and web access, to those who use the Shelter Connection through a Virtual Private Network routes traffic across XeroBank's gigabit backbone network. As it passes from country to country, mixed with tens of thousands of other users, it creates a virtually untraceable high-speed anonymity network.

The network will be available not only to users of the Shelter in Paris but also to their contacts anywhere in the world and to all those identified by Reporters Without Borders. They will be able to connect with the XeroBank service through access codes and secured, ready-to-use USB flash drives.

1545 GMT: Larijani "Mans Up". Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani continues to put forth the even-tougher-than-the-President line on international matters.

Speaking at the end of an Islamic Inter-Parliamentary summit in Damascus, Larijani said the Americans' ulterior motive in imposing new sanctions lay not in Tehran but in the West Bank and Gaza: "We are told that Iran's approach toward Palestine is important for them [the US], and they think they can change our will by pressuring us."

Larijani added, "Considering the Zionist regime's plots, countries in the Islamic world should stand beside each other."

1400 GMT: Rewriting the Past for the Present. The head of the Basiji militia, Mohammad Reza Naqdi has announced a new Basij Cyber Army. To introduce this advance in Iranian warfare, Naqdi declared that the Soviet Union was toppled by Iranian martyrs, and those fighters also ensured Zionists are surrounded by Hamas and Hezbollah today.

1220 GMT: Refugee Watch. OMID Advocates have published an extensive, vital study, "Report on the Situation of Iranian Refugees in Turkey".

1125 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Pedram Rafati, a student activist at Amir Kabir University, has been sentenced to two years in prison and fined. Reports claim that the presiding judge, Abolghassam Salavati, threatened Rafati with a longer term if he appeals.

Labour activist Khosro Boukani has been given a two-year sentence.

0945 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Hossein Marashi, former Vice President and relative and ally of Hashemi Rafsanjani, has returned to jail after a temporary release during his one-year sentence.

Professors and students have demanded the release of Ehsan Abdoh Tabrizi, a Ph.D. candidate at Durham University in Britain. Tabrizi was detained on Ashura during a visit to his relatives.

0935 GMT: Economy Watch. Sadegh Mahsouli, the Minister of Welfare and Social Security, has announced that the  subsidy reduction plan will be implemented in six provinces --- Isfahan, Sout Khorasan, Kermanshah, West Azerbaijan, Bushehr, and Golestan --- from July.

Minister of Housing Ali Nikzad has expressed his concern about a "housing bazaar gone mad", resulting in extremely high rents.

Six million families will receive a basket of goods for Ramadan, with a reduction of 20 percent in price.

0930 GMT: The Battle Within. Fatemeh Bodaghi, the President's deputy for judicial affairs, notes that complaints against member of Parliament Elyas Naderan, a vocal critic of the Government, and (even more politically interesting) Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf are still in court and asks Iran's judiciary why they have not been handled.

0920 GMT: Spinning the Nuclear Talks. What is highlighted in Khabar Online's coverage of the statement by the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov: his call for renewed discussions between Russia, the US, France, and Iran.

What's missing: Lavrov's pre-condition that Iran suspend the attempt to enrich uranium to 20 percent.

0915 GMT: A Challenge to Moscow. Iran's Minister of Defense, Ahmad Vahidi, has demanded Russian delivery of S-300 missiles to Tehran. The shipment has been held up for months amidst the international manoeuvres over sanctions and Iran's nuclear programme.

0910 GMT: The Fall-Out from the Attack on Khomeini. Another message from a cleric for Seyed Hassan Khomeini, who was shouted down by regime supporters when he tried to speak at the 4 June for his late grandfather....

That is far from unusual. What is distinctive this time is that the backing comes from a member of the Supreme Council of Cultural Revolution, seen as a bulwark of the regime. Hojatoleslam Dr. Ahmad Ahmadi wrote to Hassan Khomeini, "I was stunned when I heard of this ugly uproar."

0755 GMT: The Voices of Women. Zahra Rahnavard has asserted that joining international conventions is the best way to prevent domestic oppression.

Female followers of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri have asked Grand Ayatollah Sistani, the leading Shi'a cleric in Iraq, to insist on a reopening of Montazeri's offices, recently sealed by Iranian authorities.

0750 GMT: Irony, Sarcasm, or a Message for Ahmadinejad? Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani offered this nugget to the press in a meeting with Bahrain's Foreign Minister on Tuesday, "The strategic policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran on Iraq is the formation of a national unity government with the presence of all political, religious and ethnic groups."

Now, Mr Larijani, is your tongue in your cheek or are you really pushing the idea of "national unity" not only for Iraq but for its neighbours? (And if it is the latter, does Fars News understand what you are doing?)

0745 GMT: Websites for Human Rights. An EA reader brings to our attention CrowdVoice: Tracking Voices of Protest, which included a section with news on "Prisoners of Conscience in Iran".

0735 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Token Sanctions. Iranian state media say that President Ahmadinejad has announced a boycott of Western companies and goods in retaliation against sanctions by the US and UN. Included are Coca-Cola, IBM, Intel, and Nestle.

Hmm.... Not quite sure why Ahmadinejad is presenting this as "new". I certainly couldn't get hold of an evil Coke when I was in Tehran --- instead, I got hooked on the politically correct (and quite tasty) Parsi Cola.
0725 GMT: More on Depression in Tehran. Yesterday we noted the headline, via Iranian Labor News Agency, on a study of the emotional state of Tehran residents: 30% depressed.

Rooz Online offers much more on the study, by Tehran's Aria Strategic Studies Center, and on press coverage. The "30%" refers to severe depression; another 28% claim to suffer from mild depression. The report says concerns about marriage, housing, employment, and income are among those that have caused anxiety and unease among Tehran residents.

The official unemployment is now 14%, with higher rates amongst youth and university graduates.

0710 GMT: Cyber-Development. The International Committee for Human Rights in Iran has launched a podcast. This week's topic: "Will more political prisoners face execution soon?”

0620 GMT: Nuclear Front. Another signal that talks on Iran's uranium enrichment may resume: Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has said Tehran will respond to a Russian proposal to meet with the Vienna Group (US, Russia, and France) after consulting with Brazil and Turkey.  He suggested that the discussions be held in Tehran.

Mottaki offered no comment, however, on the US-Russia-France pre-condition that Iran halt efforts to produce 20% enriched uranium.

0610 GMT: We have posted a feature, "The Green Movement Goes Underground", the third part of Persian2English's interview with activist Ahmad Batebi.

0450 GMT: Wednesday was another day in what seems to be the pattern of Iranian politics, now 12 1/2 months after the disputed Presidential election. Opposition activity was relatively muted, at least on the public front, while the Government tried to deal (or sometimes evaded) a series of conflicts within the establishment.

A follow-up to one of those possible emerging conflicts: Rooz Online have now published an English version of Mohammad Reza Yazdanpanah's lengthy article claiming that pro-Ahmadinejad members of Parliament are turning on the Motalefeh Party, a key group in Iranian politics since 1979, with the Islamic Azad University argument as a catalyst.

Middle East Special: US to Engage with Hamas and Hezbollah? (Perry)

Mark Perry writes for Foreign Policy:

While it is anathema to broach the subject of engaging militant groups like Hizballah and Hamas in official Washington circles (to say nothing of Israel), that is exactly what a team of senior intelligence officers at U.S. Central Command --- CENTCOM --- has been doing.

In a "Red Team" report issued on May 7 and entitled "Managing Hizballah and Hamas," senior CENTCOM intelligence officers question the current U.S. policy of isolating and marginalizing the two movements. Instead, the Red Team recommends a mix of strategies that would integrate the two organizations into their respective political mainstreams. While a Red Team exercise is deliberately designed to provide senior commanders with briefings and assumptions that challenge accepted strategies, the report is at once provocative, controversial -- and at odds with current U.S. policy.

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