Israel Snap Analysis: Defense Minister Barak's Win-Win Strategy?

On Sunday, Isrraeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Industry, Trade and Labor Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer had heated argument  during a Labor Party meeting.

Barak's associates  said he had opposed the secret meeting between Ben-Eliezer and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in Zurich and told Prime Minister Netanyahu as much, though he ultimately decided not to veto the mission. Ben-Eliezer was angry with Barak cause he is accusing Barak of leaking information of the meeting with Turks. He allegedly told Barak's media spokesman, Barak Seri, "I'll skewer you. I am Iraqi. You don't know who are dealing with."

If it is true that it was the Defense Minsitry leaking the meeting to media --- and not the Foreign Minsitry of Avigdor Lieberman, as was initally reported --- then what is on Barak's mind? Is this a win-win strategy: if Netanyahu is not capable of dealing with Lieberman, then Barak takes over while if the Prime Minister succeeds, Barak grabs a portion as Lieberman leaves the coalition?

Israel-Turkey Special: How Serious is Ankara's Threat to Cut Relations? (Yenidunya)

UPDATE 0955 GMT: Reuters and Israeli newspapers have now picked up on the Davutoglu "three options", including the cut-off of Turkish ties with Israel.

Are relations between Turkey and Israel, after a week of surprising developments, at crisis point? To review....

Last Monday, Israeli media reported that Turkey had not allowed a plane carrying Israeli military officers, en route to a tour of memorial sites in Auschwitz, Poland, to fly over Turkish airspace.

Then Israel's Trade Minister Benjamin Ben Eliezer, with the backing of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, had a secret meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. When news of the meeting was leaked by Israeli Foreign Ministry, the Turkish side put the ball in Netanyahu's court and stated that the demand for the discussion came from the Israeli side. The Turkish daily Hurriyet claimed that there were four points made by West Jerusalem:

Israel-Turkey Analysis: Netanyahu Saves Face with Foreign Minister by Snubbing Ankara and Washington (Yenidunya)

- Israel is sorry for the tragic deaths.

- According to investigations, there were people linked with Hamas on board. So, it is not possible to pay compensation to these people and their families. Israel can pay to those with no connections.

- Though it understands Turkey's insistence upon an international commission, Israel believes that Turkey should give a chance to its internal enquiry.

- To discuss these matters, Israel wants the diplomatic channels to be opened. Israel is ready to talk.

Returning from a subsequent trip to Kyrgyzstan, Davutoglu said that the Israelis have three options:1) Apologise; 2) Accept an impartial international enquiry and its conclusions; 3) Accept the cutting of diplomatic ties with Ankara.

Denying that President Obama was behind the clandestine meeting last week, Davutoglu stated that Turkey's airspace is entirely closed to Israel's military planes and added:

There is no demand whether this ban should be extended to civilian planes for the time being. It will be considered according to developments. If no steps are taken, Israel's isolation process will continue. We know what we want. Principally, we are right.

The Turkish Defense Ministry informed the Israel Defense Forces over the weekend that it has decided not to participate in a naval search-and-rescue exercise planned for next month. Called Reliant Mermaid, the annual exercise began 10 years ago and included the Israeli, Turkish and American navies. It was even carried out last year after Israel's Operation Cast Lead in Gaza raised tensions with Turkey, although Israel was removed from the Anatolian Eagle air force exercise.

At the end of the day, Turkey is decreasing its military relations with Israel at points where Turkey has no direct interest , such as Israel's use of Turkish airspace and joint military operations, to benefit from the friction over Gaza and the attack on the Freedom Flotilla. However, the limits of this game are also crystal clear.

Obama sent his First Warning to Ankara on Saturday. British Arabic-language daily al-Hayat reported that the US President warned Turkish Prime Minsiter Recep Tayyip Erdogan that the international probe which Turkey has demanded could turn into a "double edged sword", as it could lead to accusations against the passengers on board the Turkish-flagged Mavi Marmara, some of whom were members of the pro-Palestinian IHH organization.

Israel & the US: Who is Offering Concessions at Home and Abroad? (Yenidunya)

The war continues between the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman.

After Ministry of Industry Benjamin Ben Eliezer's secret talks in Zurich with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, Lieberman --- not informed of the mission --- forced Netanyahu step back and apologize.

Petraeus Plays Politics: The General’s E-Mail Scheming on Israel (Mondoweiss)
Israel-Turkey Analysis: Netanyahu Saves Face with Foreign Minister by Snubbing Ankara and Washington (Yenidunya)

On Sunday, there was another move to curb the Premier's power. The Ministerial Committee on Legislation considered a proposal giving the Knesset the power to veto an extension of a government-imposed freeze on the building of Jewish settlements in the West Bank. Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party ordered its members to vote for the measure whereas Netanyahu phoned cabinet ministers from his Likud party in the hope of persuading them to oppose the transfer of authority.

On his eve of his meeting with President Obama in Washington, Netanyahu overcame another domestic challenge, as the Committee voted down the proposal. For now, there is no barrier to lawmakers continuing the "temporary and one-time freeze" in the West Bank.

Netanyahu has other "concessions" in his pocket before going to Washington. The Israeli Government voted on Sunday to expand the authority of the Turkel Commission investigating Israel's raid of a Gaza-bound aid flotilla. According to a statement released by the Prime Minister's Office, new powers will allow the commission to subpoena witnesses and receive sworn testimony. However, the government added, "The decision excludes Israel Defense Force soldiers,"  a move designed to maintain the independence of a separate military investigation already in progress.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak will meet Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad on Monday, the first encounter between the two politicians since February and asign of progress in indirect US-mediated talks. And  the Foreign Ministry will publish on Monday its official "blacklist" of goods that will not be allowed to enter the Gaza Strip. The list  will mainly consist of weapons and "problematic dual use" material that could be used to create them. Any items not listed will be permitted to enter Gaza.

Before November’s midterm election, President Obama also wants to show progress to boost his credibility in handling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, this time, instead of continuing the friction with the incoming Israeli delegation, Obama will  probably employ a very different approach.

The Jerusalem Post reports that Obama will accept Netanyahu's suggestion of  ultimate Israeli control over the major settlement blocs and an extension of the freeze in all areas outside these blocs in the West Bank. The newspaper portrays this as the acceptance of President George W. Bush’s 2004 letter to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

Israel-Turkey Analysis: Netanyahu Saves Face with Foreign Minister by Snubbing Ankara and Washington (Yenidunya)

The most prominent fallout over the clandestine talks between Israeli Minister of Industry Benjamin Ben-Eliezer and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in Switzerland? It was probably between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Foreign Minister, Avigdor Lieberman.

Lieberman was furious not only that he had not been informed of the mission but that Netanyahu would even consider sending a senior cabinet minister to hold covert talks with Turks. His argument was that if Israel agreed to compensate the families of those killed in the Israel Navy's raid on a Gaza-bound flotilla, the country would suffer a serious blow to its standing in the region.

Turkey-Israel Mystery: A Secret Meeting with Ankara (Followed by an Israeli Apology?)

Lieberman's problem not only Israel's "national interests". Pressure has been increasing day-by-day on his shoulders since the majority of the international community, including Washington, is unhappy with the Foreign Minister's position.

And it is not external powers who are displeased. Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak see their supposed colleague as a hindrance to manoeuvres with Palestinians and confrontation of the Hamas issue, adding to Israel's isolation from the international community.

Of course, Lieberman knows what is on Netanyahu's mind. "The foreign minister takes a very serious view of the fact that this occurred without informing the Ministry of Foreign Affairs," Lieberman's office said in a statement immediately following the revelation of the Ben Eliezer-Davutoglu talks. "This is an insult to the norms of accepted behavior and a heavy blow to the confidence between the foreign minister and the prime minister."

Haaretz reports, from a source close to Lieberman who has spoken with him in recent days, that the Foreign Minister has been disturbed by Netanyahu's behavior for quite some time. According to the source, Lieberman is angry over what he sees as the Premier's legitimization of the global boycott. Indeed, in an interview with Israel Radio on Thursday morning, Lieberman criticized the premier for coordinating the Turkish-Israeli meeting with both Defense Minister Barak and the White House.

When the meeting came to light, Netanyahu had to step back. He apologised to Lieberman, and they met on Friday. Offices of the two men said that they had agreed to work with complete coordination in the future.

Yet this supposed reconcilation still sat alongside the report from Turkish media that Ben-Eliezer had indicated to Davutoglu that Israel was rethinking its refusal to compensate and apologize to the families of those killed in the 31 May 31 on the Freedom Flotilla.

That report had to be pulled back. Ben-Eliezer's bureau said, "We have no plans to do that, and the minister did not promise anything to that regard during his meeting with the Turkish Foreign Minister two days ago." Netanyahu spoke even more sharply, telling Israeli television that the covert meeting was a Turkish "provocation" and insisting that there would be no apology or compensation for the Flotilla confrontation.

But if Netanyahu had repaired relations with Lieberman, he may have done so at the cost of his relations with the US. Haaretz reports, from Israeli sources, that Washington was the organizer. The US had already warned both allies not to compete in the region and sent the signal that former Congressman Robert Wexler, one of the founders of the Turkish-American Friendship Group in the Congress, could be the new ambassador to Israel.

After the Ben-Eliezer meeting with Davutoglu, Washington emphasised the necessity of discussion between its two allies. State Department spokesman Philip Crowley said:

We certainly support this kind of dialogue that hopefully can help repair the fractures that have existed in recent weeks and months between the two countries.

We have had conversations with both countries individually. In those conversations, we have reinforced that a relationship between Turkey and Israel is not only in the best interest of the region, it is in the interest of -- and supports our interests in the region as well.

So, having effectively withdrawn his secret initative, having snubbed Turkey and possibly the US to save face with Lieberman, what next for Netanyahu?

Turkey-Israel Mystery: A Secret Meeting with Ankara (Followed by an Israeli Apology?)

The story started to emerge on Wednesday afternoon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, reportedly "trying to quietly mend fences with Turkey", had sent Minister of Industry Benjamin Ben-Eliezer on a secret trip (initally said to be in Ankara, then Zurich, and then confirmed as Brussels) to meet Turkish Foreign Ahmet Davutoglu.

The office of Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman was horrified:

Turkey Video Special: Prime Minister Erdogan’s 50 Minutes on US Television (29 June)

The foreign minister did not know about the meeting. He considers it a serious matter that the meeting took place without the Foreign Ministry being informed. It is a violation of all normal procedures. It undermines the trust between the foreign minister and the prime minister. The foreign minister intends to clarify the incident.

Reports soon emerged that it was Lieberman who leaked the news of the Ben-Eliezer mission to journalists. Netanyahu's office issued a statement confirming the meeting, without naming the Turkish participant, and explaining that it was initiated by the Turks and was "unofficial".  (Lieberman had not been informed beforehand because of a "technical reason".) Turkish officials insisted that the "request came from the Israeli side".

By Thursday, The Jerusalem Post was headlining, "Turkey: Secret Meeting Unsuccessful". The Turks had supposedly asked for an apology for the 31 May raid on the Freedom Flotilla, a UN inquiry into the incident, payment of compensation, and an end to the blockade of the Gaza Strip.

The Post may have written too soon, however. Turkish media are now claiming:

Davutoglu threatened that Israel-Turkey relations may worsen, with Turkey closing its airspace to commerical flights, as well as military ones, should Israel fail to apologize. Ben-Eliezer reportedly answered that Israel is ready to apologize, and even pay the families of those inured in the IDF raid on the Mavi Marmara.

A "Turkish diplomatic source" said, "There will be a second meeting if the Israeli side takes a step toward [meeting] our demands.”