Israel-Palestine: Abbas' Conditions, Netanyahu's "Eastern Front" Response

On Sunday the leader of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, said that he was under pressure from the international community to start direct talks but added that negotiations would collapse from the first minute if there were no "clear and specific references".

Ahead of Thursday's Arab League foreign ministers' summit in Cairo, these references should be seen as a future Palestinian state based on pre-1967 borders and a construction freeze both in the West Bank and in East Jerusalem.

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In response, speaking at the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blamed the PA for "stalling direct talks and relying on the Arab League for support." He said that first "they [Palestinians] said it was the [settlement] freeze, now it's the borders issue."

On the security front, Netanyahu put a double-edged agenda: First he said, "We won't compromise security and that's why the U.S. administration has been notified of our security needs." The he asserted, "Arrangements reached with the Palestinians must be such as to withstand any changes in the political and security Middle East map," and he went further, "The Palestinians must hold firm even if an eastern front develops, as was the case, for example, before the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime."

What was meant by the "eastern front"? Any guesses?

No Israeli politician is likely stop with only an "eastern front". Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak added a "north front". In an interview with The Washington Post, he said that the IDF will attack Lebanese government institutions if Israel is again subjected to rocket attacks and continued:

We will not run after each Hezbullah terrorist or launcher....We will see it as legitimate to hit any target that belongs to the Lebanese state, not just to Hezbullah.

And Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman was back on West Bank settlements, calling for new building to resume once the moratorium ends September 26:

From September we must resume normal life here. We do not have any intention to change the demographic situation or to create a provocation, but only to provide a normal life for the people that came here under the policies of [past] government[s].

A day before Lieberman's visit, Netanyahu had said he had not intention to extend the 10-month moratorium, saying "the slowdown was limited in time: It has not changed and that's how it will be."

So Netanyahu's "eastern front" complements the demands elsewhere on "security" and on settlements. All of this puts up a formidable wall to Abbas' conditions for agreement to direct talks.

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Palestinian Leader Abbas Presses US: Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas, talking to his Fatah Party, said that he wants a more specific US commitment on the borders of a future Palestinian state before agreeing to direct talks with Israel.

During a phone conversation after his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Obama reportedly pledged Abbas that he would forth ut his own map if Netanyahu did not bring one before the winter. However, it appears that Abbas wants something more concrete: “With all due respect to the American president, his message was not clear. We want clear answers to questions we presented to the Americans, especially regarding security, borders and the status of Jerusalem. We continue to insist that any negotiations with Israel be based on recognition of 1967 as the future borders of the Palestinian state.”

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Next week, the Fatah Central Committee and the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization are scheduled to hold meetings in Ramallah on the peace process and the financial crisis within Fatah.

US Responds to Abbas: State Department spokesman Philip J. Crowley said that final status issues are to be discussed in direct talks. Asked whether or not the United States had an idea of what the borders of the future Palestinian state would look like, Crowley said that Washington would " play a constructive role, but ultimately this is a - this is something that the parties themselves have to resolve."

But the question is: So why did we have the proximity talks? With no fruitful consequences, this process in prior to the expected/pressured direct talks is far from facilitating the reflexes of both parties, especially of the Palestinians.

Netanyahu's "Political Risks": On Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the European Union's foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton that he is ready to take a political risk to reach an agreement with the Palestinians, but only if he does not have to take a security risk.

Netanyahu did not say whether he will end the freeze on Israeli construction in the West bank but Minister of Intelligence and Atomic Energy Dan Meridor told Army Radio on Tuesday that, at the end of September, Israel will no longer be bound by it:

My view is that it would be wrong to build in places where there will be a Palestinian state. But it would be right to build in places that are destined to be part of the State of Israel, in the settlement blocs and the communities along the [separation] fence. The government needs to discuss this.

Israel Defense Force Strikes: On Wednesday, Israeli Defense Forces fired uon a group of Palestinians approaching Gaza's northern border with Israel. It is reported that two people were killed, one of whom is claimed to be a top Islamic Jihad militant. Palestinian medical workers say seven people were wounded, including a 10-year-old girl.

Later Wednesday, the IDF fired at a group of Palestinians attempting to infiltrate the West Bank settlement of Barkan, killing one of them. The IDF spokesperson's office said that the casualty was armed though the group was trying to enter the settlement for criminal and not terror-related purposes.

Other Flotillas Coming?: After the Turkish organisation IHH, backers of the Freedom Flotilla, stated that there will be more convoys to break the siege, another flotilla is reportedly being organized by Palestinian businessman Yasser Kashlak, who last month tried and failed to organise ships from Lebanon. The two ships are slated to sail from Libya by the end of this week.

The Israeli Foreign Ministry instructed ambassadors to ask senior officials in the US, United Nations, European Union, and Egypt to pressure Syria and Lebanon to stop the flotilla. Officials think that Cairo will help again as it did when recently diverting the Amalthea to its port of el-Arish.

It is also reported that American activists are trying to raise funds for their own ship to Gaza, which they plan to call The Audacity of Hope, the same title as a book by President Obama.

Israel's F-35 Dream Coming True?: Israel is expected to make a decision in the coming weeks regarding the purchase of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF), senior defense officials said on Wednesday.

If Israel receives the jets, which will not be before 2015, it will be the first foreign country using them.

Israel is primarily concerned with the price of the aircraft, which could go as high as close to $150 million each. Therefore, officials are still considering whether it would be a better idea to get F-15s from Boeing.

UN-Israel Relations: On Wednesday, the UN Undersecretary-General for Political Affairs reported to the Security Council that aid convoys like May's Freedom Flotilla “are not helpful to resolving the basic economic problems in Gaza and needlessly carry the potential for escalation”. However, the report continued to call “for a prompt, impartial, credible and transparent investigation conforming to international standards” regarding the 31 May attack on the Flotilla. While the report underlined "the Quartet's efforts to bring direct negotiations", it said, "The prospect of expulsion from their home city of Palestinian legislators in east Jerusalem would be a serious step backwards and would undermine hopes of making political progress."

In response, Israel's Ambassador Gabriela Shalev underlined Israel's two demands: right to security from threats and recognition as a Jewish state. She said, "A request that Israel recognize a Palestinian state as the nation-state of the Palestinian people must be met with an acknowledgment that Israel is the nation-state of the Jewish people."

Shalev called on Hamas to release detained Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit and explained the definition of "peace": "Peace is not merely a signed document. It is a set of values that allows us all to live our lives in security and with hope –-- Israelis and Palestinian alike."

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Syria-Turkey-Lebanon Condemning Israel: Syria and its "greatest hope" Turkey again condemned Israel over its deadly intervention against the Freedom Flotilla on 31 May. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri were both present in Damascus as leaders called on the international community to add more pressure for an international probe and to urge Israel to lift the blockade on Gaza.

What Is "The Gap" Between Israel & Palestine?: Following the meeting this weekend between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Egyptian counterpart Hosni Mubarak, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit said more work needs to be done to bridge the gap between Israel and the Palestinians before they can move to direct peace talks.

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What is that gap? According to the London-based A-Sharq al-Awsat, Netanyahu showed Mubarak a map outlining his vision for a final settlement with the Palestinians. The Egyptian President refused publication of this because it is far from the demands of Palestinians for a future state based on 1967 lines with agreed land swaps. Mubarak reportedly told Netanyahu to redraft the map.

Israel's Iron Dome Defense System & Its Cost: The "Iron Dome" short- and medium-range rocket-defense system successfully completed its last round of tests Monday, the Defense Ministry and the Israel Defense Forces said.

There may be a longer-term issue with the system, however. Last week, the government took a decision to cut 2.7 billion shekels ($700 million) from the defense budget. Some IDF generals in IDF argue that it is better to focus on offense using air forces to hit strategic targets rather than deploying defense batteries, but Defense Minister Ehud Barak promised Monday that the Iron Dome batteries would soon be operational.

Currently, Israel has two batteries, each costing between 40 and 50 million shekels. Israel is soon going to receive a special aid package of $250 million from the US, a sum that is meant to cover the purchase of up to nine Iron Dome batteries. However, estimates speak of a need for at least 20 batteries to cover the Galilee and the Negev from missile threats from Lebanon and Gaza. Radar systems and interceptor missiles also have to be deployed.

Al-Qaeda Targets Arab League: The group's second man, Ayman al-Zawahiri, bombarded Arab leaders for having "surrendered" to Israel after their last summit in March. In the video, he said:

Arabs met in Sirte, (Libya), and they only came out with what they call strategic peace choice. What strategic peace choice, when they are sending a message of surrender to Israel that 'We have given up, so do whatever you like in Palestine'?

Israel-Palestine Analysis: Netanyahu Manoeuvres with US & Egypt to Put PA in a Corner

UPDATE 1030 GMT: Juan Cole has posted a complementary analysis, beginning with the Palestinian Authority's position, "Abbas: Israeli Colonization Impedes Start of Direct Talks".

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is talking about bringing the Palestinians on the table for direct talks. But how?

It is reported that, following consultations with some of his ministers, Netanyahu is thinking of announcing an end to Israel Defense Force operations in a number of Palestinian cities in the West Bank. Haaretz reports, from "senior officials", other confidence-building measures:

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- Israel will enable the Palestinian police to broaden its activities beyond Area A, which is under PA security control. They would be allowed to set up six new police stations in Area B, where the PA is currently responsible only for civilian affairs, and possibly also have some authority over civilian matters in Area C.

- Israel will lift more road blocks in the West Bank.

- Israel will transfer to Palestinian control a portion of land that is currently in Area C, under full Israeli control, in order to build a road connecting Ramallah and a new city currently in the planning stage, Rawabi.

With the Palestinian Authority under pressure from the Obama Administration to start the direct talks with Israel, Netanyahu is wisely trying to corner the PA and also other possible actors such as the Egyptian Government. PA leader Mahmoud Abbas rejected Obama's approach to change his mind, but Netanyahu, at his cabinet meeting on Sunday, stated that he planned to meet President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt on Tuesday to discuss how progress in negotiations can be achieved.

What is the benefit for Egypt? At a time when channels of dialogue are open with Hamas to some extent, following the Freedom Flotilla crisis, Cairo can use this initiative to push for Hamas flexibility in a Palestinian reconciliation agreement. It can boost its regional and domestic credibility by playing the role of second mediator between Ramallah and West Jerusalem.

Asked in an interview with Fox News whether there can be a Palestinian state by 2012 (a follow-up Palestinian leader Salam Fayyad's "A Palestinian State by 2011" statement), Netanyahu said:

I think there can be a solution. It may be implemented over time, because time is an important factor of getting the solution, both in terms of security arrangements and other things that would be difficult if they're not allowed to take place over time.

Can we have a negotiated peace? Yes. Can it be implemented by 2012? I think it's going to take longer than that.

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In response to footage of six Israeli Defense Forces soldiers stopping patrol to dance to American electro-pop singer Kesha's hit Tik Tok in the West Bank city of Hebron, Palestinians shot a video showing two kaffiyeh-clad men searched, handcuffed and arrested as Lady Gaga's Poker Face plays in the background.