Israel: Hezbollah Diversion or Threat?

On Wednesday, in a briefing for journalists, Israel Defense Forces Colonel Ronen Merli revealed previously classified photographs allegedly showing Hezbollah's activities in towns and villages close to the Israeli border. Merli said:

Hezbollah is establishing itself with increasing strength in the villages. Every day they are collecting significant intelligence on our forces along the border and every day they are engaged in digging, building and laying communications infrastructure to prepare themselves for war.

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On Friday, Haaretz's Avi Issacharoff  stated that Israel not only failed in its 2006 war in Lebanon and that Hezbollah had demonstrated its capability in its campaign since "the southern Lebanon is once again in its hands". Noting the group's resistance against the French troops supposed to prevent military activities in southern Lebanon, Issacharoff listed Hezbollah's further "achievements":

According to various assessments, the Shi'ite organization has rebuilt its military capabilities north of the Litani River, where it has established a network of missile launchers any army in the world would be proud to possess. Furthermore, it has repaired the infrastructure of the Shi'ite villages south of the Litani that were severely hit in the war.

The response was not long in coming. A Hezbollah official warned London-based Asharq al-Awsat that Israel was "preparing something for us" and added that they would act with restraint.

Israel-Turkey: The Latest on the Threat to Cut Military Ties

Responding to his Turkish counterpart Ahmet Davutoglu's threat to cut ties with Israel, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman stated that Israel would not be apologising to Ankara over the flotilla events. He said, "Every nation chooses its own diplomacy and to my sorrow Turkey has chosen the wrong direction."

However, speaking to the Knesset, Israel's army chief Gabi Ashkenazi said that military ties between Israel and Turkey remained strong despite political tension. Although Turkish airspace is now closed to the Israeli military (except for deliveries to Ankara) and joint operations have been suspended, Ashkenazi noted that the Turkish military had contributed the  lead article to the June issue of the Israel Defense Forces' magazine.

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What was Ashkenazi's message to his government? Is he indicating that the army is not happy with the political friction or is he accepting the dispute, while indicating there should be no further damage to relations?

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UPDATE 0955 GMT: Reuters and Israeli newspapers have now picked up on the Davutoglu "three options", including the cut-off of Turkish ties with Israel.

Are relations between Turkey and Israel, after a week of surprising developments, at crisis point? To review....

Last Monday, Israeli media reported that Turkey had not allowed a plane carrying Israeli military officers, en route to a tour of memorial sites in Auschwitz, Poland, to fly over Turkish airspace.

Then Israel's Trade Minister Benjamin Ben Eliezer, with the backing of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, had a secret meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. When news of the meeting was leaked by Israeli Foreign Ministry, the Turkish side put the ball in Netanyahu's court and stated that the demand for the discussion came from the Israeli side. The Turkish daily Hurriyet claimed that there were four points made by West Jerusalem:

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- Israel is sorry for the tragic deaths.

- According to investigations, there were people linked with Hamas on board. So, it is not possible to pay compensation to these people and their families. Israel can pay to those with no connections.

- Though it understands Turkey's insistence upon an international commission, Israel believes that Turkey should give a chance to its internal enquiry.

- To discuss these matters, Israel wants the diplomatic channels to be opened. Israel is ready to talk.

Returning from a subsequent trip to Kyrgyzstan, Davutoglu said that the Israelis have three options:1) Apologise; 2) Accept an impartial international enquiry and its conclusions; 3) Accept the cutting of diplomatic ties with Ankara.

Denying that President Obama was behind the clandestine meeting last week, Davutoglu stated that Turkey's airspace is entirely closed to Israel's military planes and added:

There is no demand whether this ban should be extended to civilian planes for the time being. It will be considered according to developments. If no steps are taken, Israel's isolation process will continue. We know what we want. Principally, we are right.

The Turkish Defense Ministry informed the Israel Defense Forces over the weekend that it has decided not to participate in a naval search-and-rescue exercise planned for next month. Called Reliant Mermaid, the annual exercise began 10 years ago and included the Israeli, Turkish and American navies. It was even carried out last year after Israel's Operation Cast Lead in Gaza raised tensions with Turkey, although Israel was removed from the Anatolian Eagle air force exercise.

At the end of the day, Turkey is decreasing its military relations with Israel at points where Turkey has no direct interest , such as Israel's use of Turkish airspace and joint military operations, to benefit from the friction over Gaza and the attack on the Freedom Flotilla. However, the limits of this game are also crystal clear.

Obama sent his First Warning to Ankara on Saturday. British Arabic-language daily al-Hayat reported that the US President warned Turkish Prime Minsiter Recep Tayyip Erdogan that the international probe which Turkey has demanded could turn into a "double edged sword", as it could lead to accusations against the passengers on board the Turkish-flagged Mavi Marmara, some of whom were members of the pro-Palestinian IHH organization.