Israel-Palestine Analysis: What Message Has the Arab League Sent? (And To Whom?)

On Thursday, the Arab League supposedly made its decision. The Qatari prime minister Hamed Ben Jasem al-Thani announced that the group would support Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas if he decided to enter negotiations with Israel. Many newspapers reported that the Arab League gave the "green light" for direct talks.

Did it?

In a letter to the Obama Administration, the League stated that it needed a clear timeframe, specific terms of reference, and a monitoring mechanism to support direct talks. Indeed, al-Thani said, "There is agreement, but only about the way the talks will be held and the subjects that will be discussed."

That's not a green light but a yellow one. The Arab League has avoided blame as "the supporter of Palestinians at any cost" and saved its credibility in the eyes of the US. At the same time it has not given an unqualified endorsement of discussions.

So, where is the ball? It may seem like it is in the court of Ramallah --- will Abbas finally ease back on his insistence that the Israelis commit now to the 1967 borders and to a freeze on settlements? --- but it is actually in Washington. With its own "conditions", the League has supported Abbas' call for a clear definition on the borders and any land swaps and for a transparent timetable for discussions and implementation of measures. Arab League chief Amr Moussa reiterated, "I assure you I am not of the intention to enter into negotiations, without a time frame, without clear references and without monitoring."

The question: will the Obama Administration insist on prominent steps by Israel, steps beyond the chant of "talks, talks, talks", before the settlements freeze ends on 26 September?

Middle East Inside Line: Arab League & Israel-Palestine, British PM on Gaza "Prison Camp", Separation Fence Scandal

Thorny Road to Direct Israel-Palestine Talks: Arab League Foreign Ministers are meeting today in Cairo.

Talking to Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Moratinos in Jerusalem on Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that continuing the construction freeze on West Bank settlements would be impossible politically and would bring down the coalition.

A Palestinian official told Reuters, "Abbas will tell [the Arab League] that, until this moment, there is nothing to convince us to go to direct talks.”

Israel-Palestine: Abbas’ Conditions, Netanyahu’s “Eastern Front” Response

Haaretz claims from Palestinian sources that Abbas will seek unequivocal clarifications from the US that the framework for direct talks will include a declaration that the Palestinian state will be based on the borders of 4 June 1967, with adjustments will be based on agreed exchanges of territory. The PA also wants an Israeli declaration that the construction freeze on settlements will continue and that building in East Jerusalem will stop.

Israeli cabinet minister Isaac Herzog (Labor Party) summarizes the dilemma of a "chicken-and-egg" situation. Talking to Israel Radio, he said:

Abu Mazen (Abbas) says: "I don't want to enter direct negotiations until I know what the final result will be."

Netanyahu says: "Enter direct negatiations and I will also tell you what the final result will be."

Each one looks at it opposite, and we are in a sort of political trap.

Britain's Cameron in Turkey, Comments on Gaza: British Prime Minister David Cameron made his first official visit to Turkey, warning European countries about anti-Muslim prejudice and the slow pace of accession talks with Turkey. He told Turkish businessmen:

When I think about what Turkey has done to defend Europe as a NATO ally and what Turkey is doing now in Afghanistan alongside European allies, it makes me angry that your progress towards EU membership can be frustrated in the way it has been. I believe it's just wrong to say Turkey can guard the camp but not be allowed to sit inside the tent.

Cameron's counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan called Israel’s raid on the Freedom Flotilla an act of “piracy” and compared Israeli officials to Somali pirates. Cameron said that the incident was “completely unacceptable” and called for a speedy and transparent Israeli inquiry into the incident. Cameron also sharpened his tone on Gaza:

The situation in Gaza has to change. Humanitarian goods and people must flow in both directions. Gaza cannot and must not be allowed to remain a prison camp.

The Israeli embassy in the U.K. responded to Cameron quickly:

The people of Gaza are the prisoners of the terrorist organization Hamas. The situation in Gaza is the direct result of Hamas’ rule and priorities.

We know that the Prime Minister would also share our grave concerns about our own prisoner in the Gaza Strip, Gilad Shalit, who has been held hostage there for over four years, without receiving a single Red Cross visit.

Separation Fence Scandal: EA has already reported that Walajeh, a village in the Bethlehem Governorate 8.5 kilometres (5.3 miles) to the southwest of Jerusalem, is in danger of being cut off from the rest of Palestinian lands, leaving 2,000 villagers encircled by Israeli settlements, roads, and security barriers.

In a court hearing on Sunday, it emerged that the order to expropriate village lands for the fence, which enabled the work to begin, had expired a year ago. However, instead of ordering a halt to the work, the court issued an injunction requiring the state to explain within 45 days why construction should not be stopped.

The Society for the Protection of Nature in Israel and Palestinian villagers say that since the injunction was issued, the Defense Ministry and the contractors have been working much faster than before.

The Cost of an Eye: Emily Henochowicz, an Israeli-American studying at the Bezalel Academy of Art in Jerusalem, lost her left eye when Border Guards fired a tear gas canister during a demonstration following the raid on Freedom Flotilla.

According to Henochowicz, one policeman shot a canister directly at her face. Haaretz says that one of its reporter also witnessed the incident.

Following her treatment in Jerusalem, her father was handed a bill for NIS 14,000 (around $3,600). The Ministry of Defense refused to pay, claiming the tear gas was not fired directly at Henochowicz. The statement accused Henochowicz of putting herself at risk by voluntarily participating in a breach of the peace and accused:

From our reports, we know that the Border Police acted in accordance with the law at the violent demonstration at Qalandia, and that the shooting of tear gas canisters at demonstrators was justified. Of course, we regret that Emily Henochowicz was wounded in her eye. But under such circumstances, the Defense Ministry does not cover the expenses of medical treatment.

Israel-Palestine: Abbas' Conditions, Netanyahu's "Eastern Front" Response

On Sunday the leader of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, said that he was under pressure from the international community to start direct talks but added that negotiations would collapse from the first minute if there were no "clear and specific references".

Ahead of Thursday's Arab League foreign ministers' summit in Cairo, these references should be seen as a future Palestinian state based on pre-1967 borders and a construction freeze both in the West Bank and in East Jerusalem.

To Lift The Spirits (Sequel): Dancing with Matt…in Gaza

In response, speaking at the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blamed the PA for "stalling direct talks and relying on the Arab League for support." He said that first "they [Palestinians] said it was the [settlement] freeze, now it's the borders issue."

On the security front, Netanyahu put a double-edged agenda: First he said, "We won't compromise security and that's why the U.S. administration has been notified of our security needs." The he asserted, "Arrangements reached with the Palestinians must be such as to withstand any changes in the political and security Middle East map," and he went further, "The Palestinians must hold firm even if an eastern front develops, as was the case, for example, before the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime."

What was meant by the "eastern front"? Any guesses?

No Israeli politician is likely stop with only an "eastern front". Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak added a "north front". In an interview with The Washington Post, he said that the IDF will attack Lebanese government institutions if Israel is again subjected to rocket attacks and continued:

We will not run after each Hezbullah terrorist or launcher....We will see it as legitimate to hit any target that belongs to the Lebanese state, not just to Hezbullah.

And Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman was back on West Bank settlements, calling for new building to resume once the moratorium ends September 26:

From September we must resume normal life here. We do not have any intention to change the demographic situation or to create a provocation, but only to provide a normal life for the people that came here under the policies of [past] government[s].

A day before Lieberman's visit, Netanyahu had said he had not intention to extend the 10-month moratorium, saying "the slowdown was limited in time: It has not changed and that's how it will be."

So Netanyahu's "eastern front" complements the demands elsewhere on "security" and on settlements. All of this puts up a formidable wall to Abbas' conditions for agreement to direct talks.

Middle East Inside Line: Syria-Turkey-Lebanon Condemn Israel, Netanyahu Map "Gap", Israel's Iron Dome System

Syria-Turkey-Lebanon Condemning Israel: Syria and its "greatest hope" Turkey again condemned Israel over its deadly intervention against the Freedom Flotilla on 31 May. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri were both present in Damascus as leaders called on the international community to add more pressure for an international probe and to urge Israel to lift the blockade on Gaza.

What Is "The Gap" Between Israel & Palestine?: Following the meeting this weekend between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Egyptian counterpart Hosni Mubarak, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit said more work needs to be done to bridge the gap between Israel and the Palestinians before they can move to direct peace talks.

Israel-Palestine Analysis: What is the Obama Administration Seeking?
Middle East Inside Line: Israel-Palestine Moves in Cairo, Netanyahu-Lieberman Feud, No Smoking Pipes for Gaza Women

What is that gap? According to the London-based A-Sharq al-Awsat, Netanyahu showed Mubarak a map outlining his vision for a final settlement with the Palestinians. The Egyptian President refused publication of this because it is far from the demands of Palestinians for a future state based on 1967 lines with agreed land swaps. Mubarak reportedly told Netanyahu to redraft the map.

Israel's Iron Dome Defense System & Its Cost: The "Iron Dome" short- and medium-range rocket-defense system successfully completed its last round of tests Monday, the Defense Ministry and the Israel Defense Forces said.

There may be a longer-term issue with the system, however. Last week, the government took a decision to cut 2.7 billion shekels ($700 million) from the defense budget. Some IDF generals in IDF argue that it is better to focus on offense using air forces to hit strategic targets rather than deploying defense batteries, but Defense Minister Ehud Barak promised Monday that the Iron Dome batteries would soon be operational.

Currently, Israel has two batteries, each costing between 40 and 50 million shekels. Israel is soon going to receive a special aid package of $250 million from the US, a sum that is meant to cover the purchase of up to nine Iron Dome batteries. However, estimates speak of a need for at least 20 batteries to cover the Galilee and the Negev from missile threats from Lebanon and Gaza. Radar systems and interceptor missiles also have to be deployed.

Al-Qaeda Targets Arab League: The group's second man, Ayman al-Zawahiri, bombarded Arab leaders for having "surrendered" to Israel after their last summit in March. In the video, he said:

Arabs met in Sirte, (Libya), and they only came out with what they call strategic peace choice. What strategic peace choice, when they are sending a message of surrender to Israel that 'We have given up, so do whatever you like in Palestine'?

Israel-Palestine Analysis: Netanyahu Manoeuvres with US & Egypt to Put PA in a Corner

UPDATE 1030 GMT: Juan Cole has posted a complementary analysis, beginning with the Palestinian Authority's position, "Abbas: Israeli Colonization Impedes Start of Direct Talks".

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is talking about bringing the Palestinians on the table for direct talks. But how?

It is reported that, following consultations with some of his ministers, Netanyahu is thinking of announcing an end to Israel Defense Force operations in a number of Palestinian cities in the West Bank. Haaretz reports, from "senior officials", other confidence-building measures:

Gaza Latest: Amalthia to Break the Siege?, Ireland’s “Revenge”, Mavi Marmara Becomes a Hotel?
Israel-Palestine Dance-Off Video: Tik-Tok Soldiers & a Palestinian Response

- Israel will enable the Palestinian police to broaden its activities beyond Area A, which is under PA security control. They would be allowed to set up six new police stations in Area B, where the PA is currently responsible only for civilian affairs, and possibly also have some authority over civilian matters in Area C.

- Israel will lift more road blocks in the West Bank.

- Israel will transfer to Palestinian control a portion of land that is currently in Area C, under full Israeli control, in order to build a road connecting Ramallah and a new city currently in the planning stage, Rawabi.

With the Palestinian Authority under pressure from the Obama Administration to start the direct talks with Israel, Netanyahu is wisely trying to corner the PA and also other possible actors such as the Egyptian Government. PA leader Mahmoud Abbas rejected Obama's approach to change his mind, but Netanyahu, at his cabinet meeting on Sunday, stated that he planned to meet President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt on Tuesday to discuss how progress in negotiations can be achieved.

What is the benefit for Egypt? At a time when channels of dialogue are open with Hamas to some extent, following the Freedom Flotilla crisis, Cairo can use this initiative to push for Hamas flexibility in a Palestinian reconciliation agreement. It can boost its regional and domestic credibility by playing the role of second mediator between Ramallah and West Jerusalem.

Asked in an interview with Fox News whether there can be a Palestinian state by 2012 (a follow-up Palestinian leader Salam Fayyad's "A Palestinian State by 2011" statement), Netanyahu said:

I think there can be a solution. It may be implemented over time, because time is an important factor of getting the solution, both in terms of security arrangements and other things that would be difficult if they're not allowed to take place over time.

Can we have a negotiated peace? Yes. Can it be implemented by 2012? I think it's going to take longer than that.