Israel-Palestine Analysis: What Message Has the Arab League Sent? (And To Whom?)

On Thursday, the Arab League supposedly made its decision. The Qatari prime minister Hamed Ben Jasem al-Thani announced that the group would support Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas if he decided to enter negotiations with Israel. Many newspapers reported that the Arab League gave the "green light" for direct talks.

Did it?

In a letter to the Obama Administration, the League stated that it needed a clear timeframe, specific terms of reference, and a monitoring mechanism to support direct talks. Indeed, al-Thani said, "There is agreement, but only about the way the talks will be held and the subjects that will be discussed."

That's not a green light but a yellow one. The Arab League has avoided blame as "the supporter of Palestinians at any cost" and saved its credibility in the eyes of the US. At the same time it has not given an unqualified endorsement of discussions.

So, where is the ball? It may seem like it is in the court of Ramallah --- will Abbas finally ease back on his insistence that the Israelis commit now to the 1967 borders and to a freeze on settlements? --- but it is actually in Washington. With its own "conditions", the League has supported Abbas' call for a clear definition on the borders and any land swaps and for a transparent timetable for discussions and implementation of measures. Arab League chief Amr Moussa reiterated, "I assure you I am not of the intention to enter into negotiations, without a time frame, without clear references and without monitoring."

The question: will the Obama Administration insist on prominent steps by Israel, steps beyond the chant of "talks, talks, talks", before the settlements freeze ends on 26 September?

US Politics: The Federal Government v. Arizona on Immigration (Haddigan)

Lee Haddigan writes for EA:

Last Tuesday, the US Department of Justice announced the much-anticipated challenge by the Federal Government challenge to Arizona’s new immigration law. In a brief filed in the Federal Court of the District of Arizona, the Department asked for a temporary enjoinment (to precede a permanent one) against S.B. 1070, due to become law on 29 July on the grounds that the legislation is unconstitutional.

US Politics: The Arizona Immigration Law (Haddigan)

If the decision to fight S.B. 1070 was expected, the grounds for the Federal Government’s case were less so: instead of opposing Arizona’s new law as an interference with the 4th Amendment to the Constiution, they decided to use the Supremacy Clause as the basis for defeating the controversial legislation. Attorney General Eric Holder said the Federal Government have not ruled out fighting S.B. 1070 over the issue of racial profiling but will wait to see how the law is implemented before a commitment to take Arizona to court over civil rights violations.

One reason for the government’s position is that the American Civil Liberties Union and other organisations, aided by a "friend of the court" brief from the Mexican Government, have already challenged the law on civil rights grounds. The federal submission has remarkably little to say on civil rights consequences --- for instance, it does not question the provision of what "reasonable suspicion" means when an officer asks to see papers showing a suspect’s immigration status --- other than to question a law that calls for the incarceration of legal citizens who may not have their residency qualifications on their person.

The brief also mentions that some illegal aliens are resident in the United States with the express approval of the federal authorities but are waiting on the necessary papers to prove that to an arresting officer. This latter point, however, is developed to add weight to the claim that the Arizona state law interferes with the aims of federal immigration legislation, a conflict of interest that is unconstitutional under the Supremacy Clause.

By invoking the doctrine that federal law pre-empts (has "supremacy" over) state law in matters concerning immigration the Obama administration has set the stage for a long drawn-out battle, with a probable final recourse to the Supreme Court. It is a conflict that will arouse passions on both sides of the debate because it deals with an issue that has stimulated political debate in the United States ever since the Constitution was ratified.

The argument revolves around how the document is to be interpreted. One side --- the originalist or strict constructionalist --- regards the words of the Founding Fathers, expressly stated, as the only basis for deciding whether or not a law is constitutional. The other --- the loose interpretation or living document side --- contends that the Constitution is only a framework that over time and changing circumstances provides a guide to making laws in modern times.

Herein lays the political importance of this particular instance of the Federal Government using the Supremacy Clause. For S.B. 1070 is constitutional, or unconstitutional, depending on which side (for originalis,t read conservative; for liberal, read living document) interprets the new law.

The conservative opponents of the recent actions of the Department of Justice will point out that the Constitution does not give the Federal Government the power to legislate exclusively on immigration measures. The 10th Amendment states: "The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people."

For the originalist, since the Constitution does not delegate to the Federal Government the power to determine how immigration is to be handled, then the states have the power reserved to themselves.

Liberals contend, however, that while the Federal Government’s exclusive right to deal with immigration is not stated in the Constitution, it is implied by the Government’s right to determine the naturalization process for foreign-born citizens. Over time, the duty to ascertain how naturalization is to be awarded evolved into --- as shown by the federal laws dealing with immigration --- control over the means of deciding who can and cannot enter the United States legally.

The Supremacy Clause states that:

This Constitution, and the Laws of the United States which shall be made in Pursuance thereof; and all Treaties made, or which shall be made, under the Authority of the United States, shall be the supreme Law of the Land; and the Judges in every State shall be bound thereby, any Thing in the Constitution or Laws of any state to the Contrary notwithstanding.

The relevant part of this clause is the stipulation that "the supreme Law of the Land" shall be that "made in Pursuance" of the Constitution. Under the "loose interpretation" reasoning, the issue of immigration may not be mentioned in the Constitution, but it has become a power of the federal government through legislation on naturalization concerns as and when they arose. The brief argues that the “Constitution affords the federal government the power to “establish an
uniform Rule of Naturalization”, and as Congress has passed immigration laws dealing with the "rules of Naturalization’"those powers are now enshrined in federal law –-- the "supreme Law of the Land".

The conflict between federal v. states rights over immigration is a technical debate that will see, unless the law is invalidated on undeniable civil rights arguments, the matter go all the way to the Supreme Court. Supporters of S.B 1070 have called the federal action "baseless", with Governor Brewer of Arizona even labeling it "outrageous".  But conservative commentators have yet to concentrate their attention on two arguments in the brief that will provoke a sense of moral outrage among supporters of S.B. 1070.

The first concerns the matter of national security. The federal government is arguing that the Department of Homeland Security was established, in part, to deal with the threat immigration posed to public safety. The brief maintains that it is a federal "priority", through its “significant enforcement discretion”, to “principally target aliens engaged in or suspected of terrorism … aliens convicted of crimes, with a particular emphasis on violent criminals”.  The government’s position continues that Arizona’s law interferes with the federal "supremacy" in investigating and prosecuting the above "violent criminals" and "terrorists".

This reminds the more sedentary reader of arguments used by the FBI to take over cases from local "hick" police departments in numerous television shows and films; the local force is not capable of investigating serious crimes, and actually only makes things worse, so the federal agency (the clever guys in Washington) must intervene to save the day.  The claim of the Obama administration that Arizona cannot legislate its own state laws and use its"‘police powers" to protect its citizens from violent criminals, because it preempts the priorities of the DHS and other federal agencies, is certain to provoke indignation.

The brief continues that S.B. 1070 “will interfere with vital foreign policy and national security interests by disrupting the United States’ relationship with Mexico and other countries”.No-one doubts that the president retains all authority to deal with America’s foreign relations with other sovereign nations, but this apparent pandering to the complaints of the Mexican government, (especially in light of the country’s own alleged harsh immigration law, will not endear the administration to conservatives. With the "friend of the court" brief submitted by Mexico submitted in the ACLU challenge and President Calderon’s criticism of the law at the White House, President Obama has opened the doors for conservatives to speculate on his commitment to prioritizing the defense of American interests, a potentially damaging charge.

On the day the federal brief was filed,20  Arizona lawmakers sent a letter to the US Attorney General explaining how their bill did not violate civil rights laws, but the Supremacy Clause argument seemed to take them somewhat by surprise.

Yet that manoeuvre may backfire on the administration politicall. Even the most die-hard supporter of S.B. 1070 would admit there are concerns that the "reasonable suspicion" for asking for proof of legal residence could lead to charges of racial profiling. But, with the claim that the federal government has priority in dealing with illegal violent criminals within the borders of Arizona, the Obama administration has ensured the struggle over this new law will stir more emotional posturing.

Israel-Turkey Analysis: Netanyahu Saves Face with Foreign Minister by Snubbing Ankara and Washington (Yenidunya)

The most prominent fallout over the clandestine talks between Israeli Minister of Industry Benjamin Ben-Eliezer and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in Switzerland? It was probably between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Foreign Minister, Avigdor Lieberman.

Lieberman was furious not only that he had not been informed of the mission but that Netanyahu would even consider sending a senior cabinet minister to hold covert talks with Turks. His argument was that if Israel agreed to compensate the families of those killed in the Israel Navy's raid on a Gaza-bound flotilla, the country would suffer a serious blow to its standing in the region.

Turkey-Israel Mystery: A Secret Meeting with Ankara (Followed by an Israeli Apology?)

Lieberman's problem not only Israel's "national interests". Pressure has been increasing day-by-day on his shoulders since the majority of the international community, including Washington, is unhappy with the Foreign Minister's position.

And it is not external powers who are displeased. Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak see their supposed colleague as a hindrance to manoeuvres with Palestinians and confrontation of the Hamas issue, adding to Israel's isolation from the international community.

Of course, Lieberman knows what is on Netanyahu's mind. "The foreign minister takes a very serious view of the fact that this occurred without informing the Ministry of Foreign Affairs," Lieberman's office said in a statement immediately following the revelation of the Ben Eliezer-Davutoglu talks. "This is an insult to the norms of accepted behavior and a heavy blow to the confidence between the foreign minister and the prime minister."

Haaretz reports, from a source close to Lieberman who has spoken with him in recent days, that the Foreign Minister has been disturbed by Netanyahu's behavior for quite some time. According to the source, Lieberman is angry over what he sees as the Premier's legitimization of the global boycott. Indeed, in an interview with Israel Radio on Thursday morning, Lieberman criticized the premier for coordinating the Turkish-Israeli meeting with both Defense Minister Barak and the White House.

When the meeting came to light, Netanyahu had to step back. He apologised to Lieberman, and they met on Friday. Offices of the two men said that they had agreed to work with complete coordination in the future.

Yet this supposed reconcilation still sat alongside the report from Turkish media that Ben-Eliezer had indicated to Davutoglu that Israel was rethinking its refusal to compensate and apologize to the families of those killed in the 31 May 31 on the Freedom Flotilla.

That report had to be pulled back. Ben-Eliezer's bureau said, "We have no plans to do that, and the minister did not promise anything to that regard during his meeting with the Turkish Foreign Minister two days ago." Netanyahu spoke even more sharply, telling Israeli television that the covert meeting was a Turkish "provocation" and insisting that there would be no apology or compensation for the Flotilla confrontation.

But if Netanyahu had repaired relations with Lieberman, he may have done so at the cost of his relations with the US. Haaretz reports, from Israeli sources, that Washington was the organizer. The US had already warned both allies not to compete in the region and sent the signal that former Congressman Robert Wexler, one of the founders of the Turkish-American Friendship Group in the Congress, could be the new ambassador to Israel.

After the Ben-Eliezer meeting with Davutoglu, Washington emphasised the necessity of discussion between its two allies. State Department spokesman Philip Crowley said:

We certainly support this kind of dialogue that hopefully can help repair the fractures that have existed in recent weeks and months between the two countries.

We have had conversations with both countries individually. In those conversations, we have reinforced that a relationship between Turkey and Israel is not only in the best interest of the region, it is in the interest of -- and supports our interests in the region as well.

So, having effectively withdrawn his secret initative, having snubbed Turkey and possibly the US to save face with Lieberman, what next for Netanyahu?