The Latest from Iran (21 July): Khamenei Rattled?

2120 GMT: Back to our lead story today....

Edward Yeranian of Voice of America has picked up on the Khamenei "I am the Rule of the Prophet" fatwa, "Iran's Supreme Leader Says He Represents Prophet Muhammad on Earth".

We are still trying to get to the bottom of whether the fatwa was genuine but has been pulled back from prominence, whether it was released prematurely, or whether it is the outcome of a far-from-ordinary rift within the establishment (to the point of being "disinformation").

We will have a fresh analysis in the morning. Snapshot? Whether the fatwa is genuine or now suspect, the episode does not bode well for Ayatollah Khamenei.

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NEW Iran Special: Khamenei’s “I Am the Rule of the Prophet” Fatwa — Strength or Weakness? (Verde)
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Iran Follow-Up: Dealing with the Media’s “War, War, War” Drumbeat
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2100 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Dr. Akbar Karami, a noted religious scholar, has been released on bail.

Student activist Majid Tavakoli, detained since 7 December, has had his first prison visit in more than three months. Ali Tavakoli, Majid's brother, said that he was allowed to see his brother for 10 minutes from behind a booth.

Ali Tavakoli said Majid's physical appearance was better than before and that he was in excellent spirits.

Majid Tavakoli is serving an 8 1/2-year sentence.

1500 GMT: Economy Watch. Reformist MP Mostafa Kavakebian has warned about rising prices before Ramadan in August and said the Bazaar must control those prices without reliance on more imports.

Kavakebian also said that the sale of 18% of the auto company Saipa --- officially going to employees, unofficially rumoured to a firm associated with the Revolutionary Guard --- will suffer the same fate as the privatisation of Iran Telecom.

1440 GMT: The Revolutionary Guards Document. Arshama3's Blog has re-posted and offered a quick assessment of the leaked document setting out Islamic Revolution Guards Corps procedures for monitoring the Iranian opposition.

1435 GMT: The Clerical Front. Four senior clerics, asked about "teacher-centred lectures", have responded by rejecting the concept and declaring that the seminary must remain independent.

1430 GMT: Electricity Squeeze. Hamshahri alleges that Iran is exporting cheap power to the Herat area in western Afghanistan while the domestic industry and facilities are damaged. The newspaper claims Afghans have made a profit of $2 million while Iran has lost that amount.

1415 GMT: Economic Non-Data. Bank Markazi, Iran's central bank, has again declined to publish the country's rate of growth.

1410 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Azam Vismeh has been released from detention.

1355 GMT: Corruption Watch. Rah-e-Sabz writes that more associates of the Fatemi Street insurance fraud have been summoned to court.

1345 GMT: After the Bombings. MP Zohreh Elahyian, a member of the National Security Council, has said that more control of foreign residents is planned. She blamed problems in border regions on Mossad and CIA "with their dollars".

Elahyian said, "We have full control in the Sistan and Baluchistan region, but this incident proves the long-term planning of the enemy."

1314 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. Trade and shipping source say the owner of a gasoline tanker, believed to be the Libyan-flagged Lia, has refused to allow the vessel to sail to Iran from Turkey.

1310 GMT: Parliament v. President. Is it reconcilation time? There has been a meeting of Government and Majlis representatives after the 20-day vacation of Parliament, and the Government is reportedly sending the legal decisions on its budget and legislation to the Majlis next week.

1305 GMT: Another Bust-Up in the Establishment. Aftab News publishes what appears to be a dramatic story of more tensions between the Government and "hardliners". The President's chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai reportedly claims that Ahmadinejad said Rahim-Mashi would be targeted as a "kafaar" (infidel) within a year. In particular, there would be problems with Hossein Shariatmadari, the managing editor of Kayhan. Rahim-Mashai is quoted, "To Shariatmadari, I'm no Muslim but a spy, monafegh (heretic), and member of the violet coup."

1250 GMT: The Mystery of the Fatwa. We find ourselves caught up in an increasingly murky story over the appearance of the Supreme Leader's fatwa on Tuesday. It is not appearing on Ayatollah Khamenei's "official" sites. It is still up on Iranian Labor News Agency but not on Iran Students News Agency.

An EA correspondent, noting a similar case recently over another purported Khamenei fatwaagainst Motorola's mobile phones and other products because of the company's business with Israel, writes, "Something is fishy about these supposed fatwas....I am not really sure who is running these fatwas and why."

Meanwhile, sociologist Majid Mohammadi assesses the present fatwa and declares that it is a "gravestone on the rule of justice".

1240 GMT: The Guardians. Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati has been re-elected as head of the Guardian Council.

1105 GMT: Today's "Western Approach" Story. Now it's the British who are supposedly begging for talks. From Mehr News: "Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami has twice rebuffed the British ambassador’s request for a meeting. On June 27, the British ambassador to Iran sent a letter to Khatami asking if a meeting could be scheduled, but Khatami did not reply to the letter. Later, the British Embassy sent a letter to him via the Iranian Foreign Ministry, and the cleric responded this time but said he did not want to meet the British ambassador."

Mehr does not offer the possible topics for this meeting, and it is unclear why the British would seek out Khatami, who has no official position in Iran's political hierarchy.

1048 GMT: At the Movies. From CNN:

A government-linked film studio in Iran plans to make a movie about the Iranian nuclear scientist who Iranian officials say was kidnapped by U.S. agents, state media reported Tuesday.

According to Iran's semi-official Fars news agency, Sima Film production company has hired a group of film school graduates to write a script about Shahram Amiri. The head of the production company didn't say when the film would be ready.

1045 GMT: Travel Dip. Kalemeh reports that tourism to Iran has dropped 60%.

1030 GMT: Talking Tough. The Supreme Leader has repeated that the intelligence services of the US, Britain, and Israel are to blame for last week's suicide bombings in southeastern Iran: "One of the main goals of the enemies behind the terrorist attack in Iran's southeastern city of Zahedan was to create division and religious discord."

Ali Larijani, at the World Conference of Speakers of Parliament in Geneva, declared that the US lacks the courage to strike Tehran: "Iran is ready for any possible incidents and is well aware of the ongoing developments in the region. If the US makes such a mistake, it will pay dearly."

1000 GMT: Mousavi Latest. Mir Hossein Mousavi, meeting professors in the Islamic Association of Teachers, has spoken about the Green media and the need to counter the propaganda of Iranian state outlets.

0955 GMT: The Khamenei Fatwa. An English translation of the Rah-e-Sabz article on the Supreme Leader's declaration has been posted: "For the first time, and openly, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, in response to a religious letter, has placed himself officially on the saintly level of ‘all-qualified priest’, ‘deputy Imam at the time of the absence [of the 12th Imam]’, ‘the ruling branch of the Imams’, and ‘true all-time deputy to the Prophet’. He pointed out there shall be an absolute obedience to his governmental orders to reveal ‘full commitment to the Supreme Leader’."

0945 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Thomas Erdbrink and Colum Lynch write in The Washington Post, "New Sanctions Crimp Iran's Shipping Business as Insurers Withhold Coverage".

Beyond noting the recent announcement by Lloyd's of London that it is halting coverage of gasoline imports to Iran, Erdbrink and Lynch quote Mohammad Ronaghi, the deputy manager of Iran's Sea Pars, "Iranian-flagged ships are facing problems all over the world as they currently have no insurance coverage because of the new sanctions. Basically, most ports will refuse them entry if they are not covered for possible damages."

The journalists also note the specific difficulties of Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines while carrying this reassurance from its managing director, Mohammad Hussein Dajmar, "These sanctions have not affected us much. The world has many ports. We will sail to those nations that want to do business with us."

0900 GMT: The Push Against Ahmadinejad. The battle within the Iranian establishment is now getting some attention: Robert Tait of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has posted a lengthy overview, "Iranian Conservatives Unite In Bid To Undermine Ahmadinejad".

(A bit of illuminating background to the story. I spoke for about 30 minutes with Tait as he was researching the article. We initially discussed EA's "exclusive" on the discussions between Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, leading MP Ahmad Tavakoli, and Secretary of Expediency Council Mohsen Rezaei over a move against the President.

Tait does not refer directly to the Larijani-Tavakoli-Rezaei talks --- it is difficult to do so without named sources --- but writes instead, with a link back to our article:

One report has even suggested that conservatives have met to plot a way of impeaching Ahmadinejad and remove him from office, although seasoned observers caution that such an outcome is unthinkable without Khamenei's approval -- which is thought unlikely.

As an unseasoned observer, I also told Tait that the discussions, even amongst high-ranking conservatives, had to win over the Supreme Leader: that is a key reason why Larijani and Co. were hoping to bring in senior clerics and Hashemi Rafsanjani.)

0700 GMT: We've posted a quick follow-up note on the US-based media's insistence on hyping the possibility/probability of Israeli military action against Iran as fact rather than speculation.

0555 GMT: Let's start the morning with a bit of perspective.

Tuesday's big story was not the supposed US approach to Tehran for discussions --- which was at most a request by Senator John Kerry to come to Iran and which may or may not have been true and may or may not have been whipped up by Iranian state media.

Tuesday's big story was not a possible Israeli military strike against Iran, which for now exists more on the keyboards of feverish "analysts" who --- from hysteria, speculation, ingenuity, or simple desire for such a strike --- than in any plans in West Jerusalem and Washington.

Tuesday's big story was not Iran's five-point plan for Afghanistan, unfurled at the Kabul Summit by Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki as an attempted sign of Tehran's influence in Central Asia and a counter to Western attention to sanctions and Iran's nuclear programme.

Tuesday's big story was the surprise and then confusion over the Supreme Leader's grab for authority through his fatwa linking his rule to that of the Imams and even Prophet Mohammad. What is the significance? Mr Verde assesses in a special analysis for EA.

The Latest from Iran (1 July): Establishing the Pattern

2025 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert: Deputy Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance Behrouz Alishiri has said that new UN sanctions have proven futile, as transactions in Iran's investment market have risen 10 percent since the passage of the UN resolution.

Alishiri added that, according to the reports of the International Monetary Fund, foreign investment in Iran rose from $900 million in 2007 to $3 billion in 2009.

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The Latest from Iran (30 June): Assessing “Crisis”

1925 GMT: Oil Squeeze. Lloyd’s of London, the insurance market, is recognising US sanctions by restricting cover for any ships carrying petroleum to Iran.

1815 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? Well, this weekend, the President will visit Nigeria.

It could be that Ahmadinejad fancies a change of scenery. Perhaps he got one of those special e-mails offering him a lot of money if he helped get the funds of a late President/General/businessman out of the country. Or maybe there is some connection with Nigeria taking over the presidency of the United Nations Security Council.

1805 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Activists report that Narges Mohammadi , the vice-chair of Shirin Ebadi's Center for the Defenders of Human Rights, has been released on $50,000 bail.

1800 GMT: Speaking of Universities and Threats. BBC Persian reports that some applicants for Iran's universities have received a threatening text message warning that, if they participated in post-election protests last year, they will be ineligible for acceptance regardless of their performance on entrance examinations.

The head of the government agency that administers the examinations has harshly criticised the sending of the messages. Iran Unfiltered concludes that this is an example of "hardline" elements of the regime acting without the consent and probably the prior knowledge of officials.

1750 GMT: The Universities Crisis. The dispute between Parliament and President over Islamic Azad University, analysed by EA's Mr Verde yesterday, has finally hit the non-Iranian mainstream press. The Guardian of London offers a summary, framing the battle as "a bitter political battle for control between President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his most powerful rival, Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani".

1740 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Labour activists claim that the Iranian government has informed the International Labour Organization that Mansour Osanloo, a leader of Tehran's bus union, is due for release.

The Interational Transport Workers Federation and the International Trade Union Confederation have welcomed the news but also insisted that 52 other innocent trade unionists should be freed.

1605 GMT: Cyber-Shelter. Reporters Without Borders has launched the world’s first “Anti-Censorship Shelter” for use by foreign journalists, bloggers, and activists.

The organization said at a gathering in Paris, "At a time when online filtering and surveillance is becoming more and more widespread, we are making an active commitment to an Internet that is unrestricted and accessible to all by providing the victims of censorship with the means of protecting their online information.”

The initiative, pursued with the communications security firm XeroBank, offers free high-speed anonymity services, including encrypted email and web access, to those who use the Shelter Connection through a Virtual Private Network routes traffic across XeroBank's gigabit backbone network. As it passes from country to country, mixed with tens of thousands of other users, it creates a virtually untraceable high-speed anonymity network.

The network will be available not only to users of the Shelter in Paris but also to their contacts anywhere in the world and to all those identified by Reporters Without Borders. They will be able to connect with the XeroBank service through access codes and secured, ready-to-use USB flash drives.

1545 GMT: Larijani "Mans Up". Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani continues to put forth the even-tougher-than-the-President line on international matters.

Speaking at the end of an Islamic Inter-Parliamentary summit in Damascus, Larijani said the Americans' ulterior motive in imposing new sanctions lay not in Tehran but in the West Bank and Gaza: "We are told that Iran's approach toward Palestine is important for them [the US], and they think they can change our will by pressuring us."

Larijani added, "Considering the Zionist regime's plots, countries in the Islamic world should stand beside each other."

1400 GMT: Rewriting the Past for the Present. The head of the Basiji militia, Mohammad Reza Naqdi has announced a new Basij Cyber Army. To introduce this advance in Iranian warfare, Naqdi declared that the Soviet Union was toppled by Iranian martyrs, and those fighters also ensured Zionists are surrounded by Hamas and Hezbollah today.

1220 GMT: Refugee Watch. OMID Advocates have published an extensive, vital study, "Report on the Situation of Iranian Refugees in Turkey".

1125 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Pedram Rafati, a student activist at Amir Kabir University, has been sentenced to two years in prison and fined. Reports claim that the presiding judge, Abolghassam Salavati, threatened Rafati with a longer term if he appeals.

Labour activist Khosro Boukani has been given a two-year sentence.

0945 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Hossein Marashi, former Vice President and relative and ally of Hashemi Rafsanjani, has returned to jail after a temporary release during his one-year sentence.

Professors and students have demanded the release of Ehsan Abdoh Tabrizi, a Ph.D. candidate at Durham University in Britain. Tabrizi was detained on Ashura during a visit to his relatives.

0935 GMT: Economy Watch. Sadegh Mahsouli, the Minister of Welfare and Social Security, has announced that the  subsidy reduction plan will be implemented in six provinces --- Isfahan, Sout Khorasan, Kermanshah, West Azerbaijan, Bushehr, and Golestan --- from July.

Minister of Housing Ali Nikzad has expressed his concern about a "housing bazaar gone mad", resulting in extremely high rents.

Six million families will receive a basket of goods for Ramadan, with a reduction of 20 percent in price.

0930 GMT: The Battle Within. Fatemeh Bodaghi, the President's deputy for judicial affairs, notes that complaints against member of Parliament Elyas Naderan, a vocal critic of the Government, and (even more politically interesting) Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf are still in court and asks Iran's judiciary why they have not been handled.

0920 GMT: Spinning the Nuclear Talks. What is highlighted in Khabar Online's coverage of the statement by the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov: his call for renewed discussions between Russia, the US, France, and Iran.

What's missing: Lavrov's pre-condition that Iran suspend the attempt to enrich uranium to 20 percent.

0915 GMT: A Challenge to Moscow. Iran's Minister of Defense, Ahmad Vahidi, has demanded Russian delivery of S-300 missiles to Tehran. The shipment has been held up for months amidst the international manoeuvres over sanctions and Iran's nuclear programme.

0910 GMT: The Fall-Out from the Attack on Khomeini. Another message from a cleric for Seyed Hassan Khomeini, who was shouted down by regime supporters when he tried to speak at the 4 June for his late grandfather....

That is far from unusual. What is distinctive this time is that the backing comes from a member of the Supreme Council of Cultural Revolution, seen as a bulwark of the regime. Hojatoleslam Dr. Ahmad Ahmadi wrote to Hassan Khomeini, "I was stunned when I heard of this ugly uproar."

0755 GMT: The Voices of Women. Zahra Rahnavard has asserted that joining international conventions is the best way to prevent domestic oppression.

Female followers of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri have asked Grand Ayatollah Sistani, the leading Shi'a cleric in Iraq, to insist on a reopening of Montazeri's offices, recently sealed by Iranian authorities.

0750 GMT: Irony, Sarcasm, or a Message for Ahmadinejad? Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani offered this nugget to the press in a meeting with Bahrain's Foreign Minister on Tuesday, "The strategic policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran on Iraq is the formation of a national unity government with the presence of all political, religious and ethnic groups."

Now, Mr Larijani, is your tongue in your cheek or are you really pushing the idea of "national unity" not only for Iraq but for its neighbours? (And if it is the latter, does Fars News understand what you are doing?)

0745 GMT: Websites for Human Rights. An EA reader brings to our attention CrowdVoice: Tracking Voices of Protest, which included a section with news on "Prisoners of Conscience in Iran".

0735 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Token Sanctions. Iranian state media say that President Ahmadinejad has announced a boycott of Western companies and goods in retaliation against sanctions by the US and UN. Included are Coca-Cola, IBM, Intel, and Nestle.

Hmm.... Not quite sure why Ahmadinejad is presenting this as "new". I certainly couldn't get hold of an evil Coke when I was in Tehran --- instead, I got hooked on the politically correct (and quite tasty) Parsi Cola.
0725 GMT: More on Depression in Tehran. Yesterday we noted the headline, via Iranian Labor News Agency, on a study of the emotional state of Tehran residents: 30% depressed.

Rooz Online offers much more on the study, by Tehran's Aria Strategic Studies Center, and on press coverage. The "30%" refers to severe depression; another 28% claim to suffer from mild depression. The report says concerns about marriage, housing, employment, and income are among those that have caused anxiety and unease among Tehran residents.

The official unemployment is now 14%, with higher rates amongst youth and university graduates.

0710 GMT: Cyber-Development. The International Committee for Human Rights in Iran has launched a podcast. This week's topic: "Will more political prisoners face execution soon?”

0620 GMT: Nuclear Front. Another signal that talks on Iran's uranium enrichment may resume: Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has said Tehran will respond to a Russian proposal to meet with the Vienna Group (US, Russia, and France) after consulting with Brazil and Turkey.  He suggested that the discussions be held in Tehran.

Mottaki offered no comment, however, on the US-Russia-France pre-condition that Iran halt efforts to produce 20% enriched uranium.

0610 GMT: We have posted a feature, "The Green Movement Goes Underground", the third part of Persian2English's interview with activist Ahmad Batebi.

0450 GMT: Wednesday was another day in what seems to be the pattern of Iranian politics, now 12 1/2 months after the disputed Presidential election. Opposition activity was relatively muted, at least on the public front, while the Government tried to deal (or sometimes evaded) a series of conflicts within the establishment.

A follow-up to one of those possible emerging conflicts: Rooz Online have now published an English version of Mohammad Reza Yazdanpanah's lengthy article claiming that pro-Ahmadinejad members of Parliament are turning on the Motalefeh Party, a key group in Iranian politics since 1979, with the Islamic Azad University argument as a catalyst.