US Politics Analysis: Why Obama Has the Edge So Far --- Campaign Finance and the State of the Election

Samuel L. Jackson's pro-Obama "Wake the F*** Up, America"

The latest pro-Romney "attack ad" by the SuperPAC American Crossroads

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Next Wednesday, Mitt Romney and Barack Obama will meet in the first of three campaign debates.

Opinion varies as to how critical the debates are in persuading undecided voters to support a candidate, but the cold fact is that in this campaign they are the last chance for Romney to turn around Obama's momentum. The President is currently leading by margins, especially in the battleground states, that have him as a 4-1 favourite –-- 80% probability --- to retain the White House.

The reasons for Romney's disappointing performance are many, but one that is not receiving the attention that it deserves is that conservatives have not yet been able --- as many feared after the Supreme Court decision of 2010 --- to swamp the Obama campaign with a series of negative ads drowning out the voice of the Democratic incumbent. There is time for that change, especially if big donors are encouraged by Romney's performance in the first debate to pour in last-minute millions, but money has not yet shifted the fundamentals in this race.

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EA Video Analysis: Syria --- The Real Meaning of the Damascus Bombs

The biggest effect of Wednesday's bombings near Army Staff Headquarters and the invasion of the building by insurgents is psychological: "How can President Assad and those who have held power for decades claim to protect their people when they cannot even protect themselves?"

Iran Snapshot: Why Was Top Military Commander Soleimani in Iraqi Kurdistan?

The Kurdish website has reported a surprising visit by the commander of Iran’s elite Quds Force, Qasem Soleimani, to Iraqi Kurdistan region. Soleimani met officials from the Kurdistan Regional Government, including Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani, and top members of the Kurdistan Democratic Party.

Soleimani has close ties to Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, the founder of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, and Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who recently visited Talabani in Suleymaniyah after the Kurdish leader helped him survive a no-confidence vote.

Relations between Iran and the KDP have been tense, despite occasional meetings.

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Syria Analysis: Huge Stories, Small Headlines, and the Future of Insurgency

Insurgents use a BMP armoured vehicle to attack regime tanks in Jabal Zawiyah in Idlib Province

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This is a stalemate, but it is a corrosive one, one that constantly eats at the strength of the Assad regime, while the humanitarian crisis and threat to infrastructure grows with every exploding barrel bomb and tank shell. The "massacres" and the escalating death toll bear out the claims made by the opposition that the regime does not believe that it is winning this fight.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Bloodiest Day in the Conflict?

Footage from Al-Manar TV of the aftermath of Wednesday's bombings and attack by insurgents on Army Staff HQ in Damascus, with gun battles and bodies of three opposition fighters inside the building

See also Syria Analysis: Huge Stories, Small Headlines, and the Future of Insurgency
EA Video Analysis: Syria --- An Introduction to "The Grind of the Conflict"
Wednesday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Double Explosion Hits Army Staff HQ in Damascus

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2037 GMT: Iraq. CNN's Ivan Watson reports on thousands of internally-dsiplaced Syrians, camping out and sleeping in the dirt because they cannot cross the Turkish border:

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EA Video Analysis: Syria --- An Introduction to "The Grind of the Conflict"

See also Our 1st EA Video Analysis: The Sound, Fury, and Insignificance of Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

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An eight-minute introduction to the situation in Syria, with the analysis of a conflict that is beyond any possible political resolution and will only be settled when either the regime or the insurgents have a decisive military advantage --- given this will not happen in the foreseeable future, the "grind of the conflict" takes over.

One note about the close of the commentary: when we filmed this, I was working with Monday's figure toll of "only" 123 people slain by security forces. Yesterday, that number was 343.

The Latest from Iran (27 September): A Newspaper is Banned, An Editor is Imprisoned

Protesters chase, heckle, and harass Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Ramin Mehmanparast, iin New York

See also Iran Analysis: Ahmadinejad Exits Stage Left
The Latest from Iran (26 September): Denials, "Fake Allegations", and Ahmadinejad's Speech

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1545 GMT: Food Watch. State grains agency GTC has bought 1 million metric tonnes (1.1 tons) of milling wheat in the past two weeks, mostly from the European Union, according to traders.

The news is a further marker of Iran's shift from exporter to importer of wheat. "They are buying bigger volumes than what was expected, they have big needs," one trader said.

Iranian wheat imports are usually handled by the private sector but the State has had to step in amid disruptions to trade financing.

"In the most recent buys in the last two weeks they have been taking almost anything that is available," another trader said. "They have been buying EU, Black Sea including Russian, Australian and other origins."

One trade source suggested desperation to feed livestock was one of the reasons for the huge import volume. "They don't have enough feed for animals, which means they are using milling wheat instead."

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Iran Analysis: Ahmadinejad Exits Stage Left

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The prevalent mood in much of the US media after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's last speech to the United Nations General Assembly was disappointment. It was not disappointment over the lack of any new substance on the nuclear issue or a statement on Syria, but extended lower lips that this was not the combative Ahmadinejad who had taken the stage in past years.

"Muted" was the immediate reaction, with The Washington Post reviewing that the speech was "decidedly less provocative", and thus "less notable". The New York Times, which normally embraces Ahmadinejad as its pantomime villain, did not even give him a leading role, let alone a place its headline --- he had been succeeded by other suspects, "At U.N., Egypt and Yemen Urge Curbs on Free Speech". The Wall Street Journal was slightly bemused by Ahmadinejad's emphasis on religion, with his anticipation of the return of the Hidden Imam, but appeared to be disappointed that he had not denied the Holocaust or called for the elimination of Israel or offered one of his denunciations of homosexuality.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Double Explosion Hits Army Staff HQ in Damascus

Smoke this morning above Army Staff Headquarters in Damascus after two explosions

See also Syria 1st-Hand: The Insurgents' PR Quest for Ammunition in Aleppo
Tuesday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: "The Situation Has Gone from Bad to Worse"

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1820 GMT: Syria. In his address to the United Nations General Assembly, Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi has upheld his initiative of a four-nation contact group --- Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran --- and declared, "The bloodshed in Syria and the humanitarian crisis that has unfolded, must be stopped."

A full English-language text of the speech has been posted.

1720 GMT: Syria. Back from a long break for a business meeting to find the official casualty figure for today's double bombing near Army Staff Headquarters is six dead –-- t four security guards and two suicide bombers --- and 14 wounded.

Security has been increased in the area of the explosions with roadblocks and checkpoints. A resident said, "Most of the people who work at governmental institutions could not go to work today."

Meanwhile, the Local Coordination Committees report one of the bloodiest days in the 18-month conflict, with 290 people killed by security forces. The 162 dead in Damascus and its suburbs include a claim of 107 people slain in a mass killing in al-Thiabieh. There are also 37 killed in Deir Ez Zor Province, 26 in Homs Province, and 25 in Daraa Province.

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Our 1st EA Video Analysis: The Sound, Fury, and Insignificance of Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

As we prepare to launch a new website, EA introduces a new venture, the Video Analysis of the "Window on the World".

We hope through 5-minute analyses of latest events to go behind the headlines --- and to bring in overlooked news --- for an understanding of the important political, economic, and social developments and trends. The intial videos will feature EA staff in straightforward presentations to camera, but we hope to add to the "Window" through footage and studio discussions as EA expands.

In the intial analysis, Scott Lucas previews the sound and fury of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in his speech at the United Nations today, predicting that it will all end in insignificance.