US Politics Analysis: Why Obama Has the Edge So Far --- Campaign Finance and the State of the Election
Friday, September 28, 2012 at 9:28Samuel L. Jackson's pro-Obama "Wake the F*** Up, America"
The latest pro-Romney "attack ad" by the SuperPAC American Crossroads
Next Wednesday, Mitt Romney and Barack Obama will meet in the first of three campaign debates.
Opinion varies as to how critical the debates are in persuading undecided voters to support a candidate, but the cold fact is that in this campaign they are the last chance for Romney to turn around Obama's momentum. The President is currently leading by margins, especially in the battleground states, that have him as a 4-1 favourite –-- 80% probability --- to retain the White House.
The reasons for Romney's disappointing performance are many, but one that is not receiving the attention that it deserves is that conservatives have not yet been able --- as many feared after the Supreme Court decision of 2010 --- to swamp the Obama campaign with a series of negative ads drowning out the voice of the Democratic incumbent. There is time for that change, especially if big donors are encouraged by Romney's performance in the first debate to pour in last-minute millions, but money has not yet shifted the fundamentals in this race.