Iran Analysis: Is This the Last Elected President? (Alam)

A trial balloon floated by Iran’s Supreme Leader last year is coming closer to reality and with it, the prospect that Iran’s political system will become even less representative of popular will.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei first raised the idea in October of abolishing the directly elected Iranian presidency by highlighting the regime’s flexibility for institutional change. At the time, his statement elicited an array of reactions from across the political spectrum. His allies in the parliament and the Guardian Council, a body that vets candidates for elected office, swiftly endorsed the proposal, assuring Iranians that well-established legal mechanisms existed for such a change.

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Iran Snap Analysis: Scrambling Over Syria

Cartoon: Nikahang KowsarIran, unsettled by the increasing difficulties for the Syrian regime, is trying to buttress its position in a post-Assad future. If there is to be a "transitional government" in Damascus, or even prolonged uncertainty and conflict, then Iran cannot afford an erosion of its position in neighbouring countries. So ties with Lebanon will be reinforced, if possible, and relations with Turkey will not be allowed to collapse into a real fight beyond the rhetorical bluster.

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The Latest from Iran (7 August): The Currency "Situation"

See also Iran Propaganda Special: "Zionists Will Stage Terror Attack on Olympics"
The Latest from Iran (6 August): Breaking Ranks

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2030 GMT: Foreign Affairs Watch (Turkish Front). After tension between Turkey and Iran over the last 48 hours, all was very diplomatic in Ankara today between Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Abkar Salehi and his Turkish counterpart Ahmet Davutoğlu today. According to Iranian State news agency IRNA, Salehi asked Davutoğlu to help in the case of 48 Iranians abducted in Syria on Saturday, and both men spoke of the close relations and interests between the two countries.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A Crumbling Regime?

See also Syria 1st-Hand: Deaths by the Schoolhouse --- Awaiting Regime Attack in Aleppo
Syria 1st-Hand: Fleeing Aleppo
Syria Snap Analysis: What the Prime Minister's Defection Might Say About State of the Conflict
Monday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Rumour and Reality in Aleppo

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2038 GMT: Syria. Zabadani, northwest of Damascus (map), has been shelled every day for weeks, mostly starting at around sundown each day, the time when people break their fasts, the time when people are most vulnerable. Today, the LCC has a desperate claim:

Intense shelling by artillery, tanks, and rocket launchers in Housh area of the city. More than 50 martyrs have been reported thus far.

However, there appears as though there has been a translation issue. Fares Mohamed, with the LCC in Zabadani, says that 50 shells have fallen, rather than there being 50 martyrs.

This is breaking news, so sources are scarce, but two disturbing (and unverified) videos claim to show the explosions. It's night, making the videos even harder to verify, but Fares Mohamed says that the video appears to have been taken in Zabadani:

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Iran Propaganda Special: "Zionists Will Stage Terror Attack on Olympics"

Press TV's Vision of the "Terror Attack" on the Olympic Stadium --- People Nearby Seem Surprisingly Unconcerned

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Would the 2012 London Olympic Games experience another 9/11? How could a mock terrorist attacks fill pockets of British Zionist lobby? What do you know about Australia’s richest man and influenced bussiness [sic] man in London?

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Syria 1st-Hand: Deaths by the Schoolhouse --- Awaiting Regime Attack in Aleppo (Chulov)

Members of the Free Syrian Army in Salaheddin in Aleppo on Monday

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The attack came just after 2pm on Monday; two Soviet era Mig fighter jets swept in low from the west, then banked and made a run at the schoolhouse. The impact of the bombs was devastating on the two homes they struck. Fabricated concrete spilled across the street and a nine-year-old girl lay dismembered in the ruins.

The first stronghold established by the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in the war-torn city of Aleppo had been hit by regime jets, in an attack that failed to take out the rebel leadership but instead killed nine members of a family in a nearby house.

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Syria 1st-Hand: Fleeing Aleppo (Hanano)

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During the brief phone calls we could make when landlines were working, my mother asked my father to do seemingly mundane - yet strange - tasks: leave the curtains open but lock the balcony doors; move furniture away from the chandeliers. Fragile objects were wrapped and placed on the floor in case of shelling; doors barricaded in case of looting; valuables moved elsewhere. The house was slowly stripped of what made it a home, until the moment arrived when it was stripped of its final inhabitant.

Choosing to leave was tainted with guilt; guilt that our family was lucky, that we were the ones who could leave, the ones who had another country to call home and the ones who had not lost a relative yet. So we were ashamed to speak of trivial, material things. But we did speak of them, because it's our home.

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US Politics Analysis: Despite the Economy, Obama Gains Over "Elitist" Romney

Last Friday, the latest unemployment figures revealed that, despite a better-than-expected increase in the number of people starting a new job, the rate rose slightly to 8.3%. Historically, that is bad news for President Obama: no president other than Franklin D. Roosevelt has won an election when unemployment is above 8%. With only thre months left in this campaign, it is highly unlikely to see a fall below that benchmark.

But, despite this, it was a week of good news for Obama's chances  of re-election, as a number of polls showed a slowly-increasing lead in three  battleground states. The numbers from Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio have allowed Obama's campaign to begin speculation that their candidate's support is “trending” in an upward direction. The strategists who decide the content and tone of Obama's re-election message will be delighted that their emphasis on economic fairness appears to be working.

And while these polls will be long forgotten come November, this week also saw a refrain against Mitt Romney gain considerable traction.

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Syria Snap Analysis: What the Prime Minister's Defection Might Say About State of the Conflict

Riyad HijabOne of the most striking claims over Prime Minister Riyad Hijab's defection is that the Assad regime not only picked Hijab to help lead it out of crisis but also threatened him with death. This may be an assertion to curry favour with the opposition, but if it is true, this means that President Assad really does not have anyone he can trust or turn to without fear of consequences. It could mean that the only reason there are not more defections is fear, but --- with the decision of Hijab and his brothers to leave Syria --- it is a fear that is slipping.

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The Latest from Iran (6 August): Breaking Ranks

See also Iran Feature: Can Tehran and the West Close the Nuclear "Trust Gap"?
The Latest from Iran (5 August): The Supreme Leader Talks About Morality

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Mohsen Rezaei (see 0555 GMT)1910 GMT: All the President's Men. Ali Akbar Bakhtiari, the head of the Administrative Court, has maintained the pressure for enforcement of the Court's ruling that Presidential aide Saeed Mortazavi must resign as head of the Social Security Fund.

The Court has ordered Mortazavi to step down because of his alleged role, as Tehran Prosecutor General, in the abuse and killing of protesters at Kahrizak detention centre in summer 2009; however, President Ahmadinejad and his advisors have defied the command.

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