UAE President Sheikh KhalifaIn the last months, the UAE has further cracked down on potential opposition groups, arresting, deporting, or revoking the citizenship of dozens of Islamists.
In an apparent attempt to justify these measures, officials have argued that Islamists were plotting to overthrow governments of the Gulf states.
Claimed footage of the aftermath of regime attacks on the Yarmouk refugee camp in Damascus, which killed at least 20 people on Thursday (Warning: Graphic)
See also Syria Audio Feature: "Annan's Resignation is A Sideshow...and What Is Really Important" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Syria Video Feature: Fighting the Battle with Camera Phones
Thursday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Is Aleppo Out of Control?
2040 GMT: Syria. For two weeks we have been talking about the likelihood that the Syrian Army will liberate Aleppo in the sudden push of a massive military assault on the country's largest city. For two weeks, we have been saying that the Free Syrian Army will make Assad pay for every inch of that liberation. Now, however, we need to consider that the most likely scenario may no longer be regime victory in Aleppo.
The roads north of Aleppo are virtually clear of the Syrian army. The area as far east as Kobani (also known as Ayn-al-Arab), and as far west as Dar T'Izzah, all the way north to the border with Turkey, is either completely or largely in insurgent hands. Free Syrian Army fighters have captured perhaps hundreds of vehicles, some of them armoured, and a few of them are tanks.
The FSA has more and more weapons, and has proven it can beat Assad's armour. Those fighters have been hit hard by the helicopters and jet fighters, but have proven that they are strong enough to take those hits. We have now gone many days without a regime victory in the area, and the FSA continues to advance. Perhaps as much of 70% of Aleppo is under some degree of FSA control, while the insurgents are closing in on Assad's military bases south of Salaheddin.
Common knowledge says that the regime will strike soon, but common knowledge said that the regime would retake the city last Saturday. It didn't happen. The FSA won the battles. In fact, there is no available empirical evidence that suggests the Assad regime can win the future battles inside Aleppo.
A quick look at the map tells the story --- the area in blue is area over which the FSA has at least partial control, though this is likely too conservatively drawn):
View Syria - 2012 August 3 - EA Worldview in a larger map
The regime is working against the clock. Since February, the Syrian military has not retaken a single city or town that has been in insurgent control for more than 2 weeks. Reporters on the ground are saying that the FSA is become better equipped and better supplied and that its ranks, both inside Aleppo and outside, are growing.
The regime could make a significant military assault in a bid to take Aleppo back, but it would likely have to be much larger than anything we have seen so far.
Without being alarmist, the most likely scenario may not be a regime assault on the city. Soon, the Free Syrian Army could be poised to take Aleppo --- all of it.
See also Iran Feature: The Banning and Detention of Conservative Bloggers
Iran Analysis: West To Tehran on Nuclear Issue "Accept Our Demands or No More Talks"
The Latest from Iran (2 August): Worrying About Syria
2000 GMT: Oil Watch. India's State-run Hindustan Petroleum has made its first payment for Iranian oil in rupees, partially settling a bill for cargo imported in May.
Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL.NS), the biggest Indian buyer of Iranian oil, will make a rupee payment on Monday, a company official said.
India is Iran's second-largest oil buyer, but has struggled since the end of 2010 to find ways to pay for the oil amid Western sanctions that blocked arrangements in dollars and Asian currencies.
After months of discussions, Tehran and New Delhi agreed in January for part-payment in rupees. The Indian currency is not internationally convertible, but Iran can use the revenues to buy products from Delhi.
I spoke with Monocle 24's The Daily last night about the developments in Syria and the short-term prospects.
The take-away line is of the relative lack of significance of the resignation of envoy Kofi Annan and the United Nations' attempts at diplomacy. Instead, the crisis is being decided by the fighting on the ground. And while the UN has no Plan B, both the insurgents and some members of the international community do --- backed by increasing assistance from the US, European nations, Turkey, and Arab States, the insurgency has broken the regime's control of large areas of Syria and is now threatening to do so in Aleppo.
To listen to the discussion, go to The Daily's homepage, click on the programme for 2 August, and begin at the 9:25 mark.
The Larijani Brothers --- are they behind the crackdown on conservative bloggers?
For years, we have reported on the regime's pressure on opposition bloggers, in some cases imposing long prison sentences as well as blocking their sites.
Recently, however, there has been a twist in the campaign. As part of the political contest within the establishment, factions within the regime have been attacking each other's outlets.
In particular, it appears that the camps of President Ahmadinejad and of Speaker of Parliament are locked in battle. Last month, the high-profile Alef site, linked to Larijani's relative and key MP Ahmad Tavakoli, was filtered for weeks. Pro-Ahmadinejad bloggers who challenge Larijani and his brothers, including head of judiciary Sadegh and senior judiciary official Mohammad Javad, are being detained.
Small Media reports via Storify....
Street fighting in Aleppo, 23 July 2012
In April last year Ahmad Mohammad left his village in northern Syria filled with its pomegranate trees, figs, and goats, and moved to Lebanon. He came back five months later with a certificate in mobile phone maintenance – a weapon more powerful than Bashar al-Assad's helicopters and tanks.
While he was away Mohammad learned how to upload videos to YouTube – a website banned by the Syrian regime. "Nobody in Syria knew how to do this," he said. In the meantime Syria's revolution snowballed from a handful of protests into a seething nation-wide revolt, characterised by nightly anti-regime gatherings, shootouts with the security forces and a growing number of casualties.
Mohammad had a laptop but no money. His brother lent him some cash, with which he bought a 3G modem and a Sony Ericsson phone from Turkey. Within a couple of days, he had rigged up a high-speed internet connection at his parent's home – the cable sitting next to the vine above the terrace and a pot of basil on a wall.
Last autumn opposition fighters took control of his village. On 10 January 2012, Mohammad shot his first video, a demonstration, on which did a voiceover in Arabic: "Don't trust Assad's reforms, join the revolution!"
The day was muggy and wintry; the picture quality wasn't great, with sepia tones. But Mohammad's career as a video activist had begun.
Luke Harding, Syria, The Guardian 
Catherine Ashton and Saeed JaliliEuropean Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton told her Iranian counterpart Thursday that Iran needs to agree soon on a plan to stop its 20% enrichment, or there wasn’t much prospect of the current diplomatic track continuing as such indefinitely.
That, anyway, seemed to be the message between the lines of a stark four-line statement she made after a phone call Thursday with Dr. Saeed Jalili, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
January 2012: From left to right --- Iran's Supreme Leader, Syria's Assad, Yemen's Saleh, Libya's Qaddafi, Egypt's Mubarak, and Tunisia's Ben Ali
2048 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Laura Ashton reports that the lead nuclear negotiators for the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, and Russia) and Russia spoke by phone today.
The European Union's Catherine Ashton, speaking to Saeed Jalili, "impressed the need for Iran now to address issues". The two, speaking for the first time since high-level talks in Moscow in mid-June, agreed to reflect and speak again at the end of month.
People grieve over some of the dozens killed on Wednesday in Jdeidet Artouz near Damascus (see 0515, 0625, and 0705 GMT)
See also Bahrain Opinion: US Needs More Than Words About the Regime
Syria Revealed: Inside the Obama Administration's Discussions About the Insurgency
Syria and Turkey Analysis: Ankara Looks to Iraq's Barzani Amid the "Kurdish Spring"
Wednesday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Aleppo --- This Does Not Look Like Regime "Victory"
2042 GMT: Syria. Martin Chulov of The Guardian writes:
FSA colonel told me 1000s of refugees from Idlib &
— Martin Chulov (@martinchulov) August 2, 2012#Aleppo sleeping in fields near Jebel al-Zawiya. "We can't feed them. Help us."
2037 GMT: Bahrain. Footage of police gathering and arresting people in Bilad Qadeem tonight:
President Obama on Phone with Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan, 31 July 2012The Obama administration very publicly signaled a shift in its approach to dealing with the Syria crisis after negotiations broke down at the United Nations in mid-July.
But the actual details of that shift are still being debated internally and the administration's rhetoric has gotten out ahead of its policy, according to officials, experts, and lawmakers.
Those details are being discussed among a select group of top officials in a closed process managed by National Security Advisor Tom Donilon. Within that group, some officials are arguing for more direct aid to the internal Syrian opposition, including the Free Syrian Army, that would help them better fight the Syrian military.
