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Friday
Jul132012

The Latest from Iran (13 July): Revolutionary Enemy-Breaking Queues for Chicken

See also Iran Snapshot: A Clumsy Intervention by Britain's Intelligence Chief
The Latest from Iran (12 July): Keeping the Oil Flowing....Maybe


1549 GMT: Immigration Watch. Kalemeh claims that Afghan immigrants, the subject of increasing restrictions by the regime in recent weeks, are no longer allowed to drive.

1545 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Saham News says that opposition figure Mehdi Karroubi, held under strict house arrests for 17 months, has not been allowed to attend the funeral of his sister.

1541 GMT: Economy Watch. ISNA reports that the price of domestically-produced cigarettes has doubled in recent weeks.

Click to read more ...

Friday
Jul132012

Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A New "Massacre"?

1902 GMT: Syria. An activist shares a series of videos that show that the FSA has made more effective attacks in the mountainous Jabal Zawiyah region of Idlib province. These videos were reportedly taken in Rami (map):

Another activist makes a bold claim, which we cannot verify at this point:

Click to read more ...

Friday
Jul132012

Bahrain Exclusive: An Interview with Maryam Alkhawaja 

Nabeel Rajab gets arrested, imprisoned for periods [weeks] at a time, and yet nothing from the State Department; nothing from the US administration. The situation right now as it is is that Nabeel is in prison, possibly for a little more than two months; Zainab Alkhawaja, who is also one of the most active activists, is unable to walk without crutches for at least six weeks afer she was directly targeted and shot in the leg at close range, which not only shattered her thigh bone, but removed all skin and tore the muscle. Removing two of the most well-known activists from the streets at this time seems to be too convenient right before Ramadan to be a coincidence.

Click to read more ...

Friday
Jul132012

Iran Snapshot: A Clumsy Intervention by Britain's Intelligence Chief

John SawersA curious, clumsy, and perhaps dangerous intervention by the head of Britain's foreign intelligence service....

Speaking at a public event in London, MI6 chief John Sawers declared that Iran is “two years away” from becoming a “nuclear weapons state” and that, “when that moment came”, Israel and/or the US would have to decide whether to launch a military strike.

Click to read more ...

Friday
Jul132012

Syria Special: A Massacre in Tremseh --- What We Know So Far

Rula Amin, of Al Jazeera English, reports on the latest news from Tremseh.

See also Thursday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: An Ambassador Defects


NOTE - This Post Has Been Updated. In order to keep the original narrative clean, I will add any further details I collect today at the bottom of this article, and not at the top. I will timestamp the updates. Check back often.

Everyone is talking about a massacre, a killing of epic proportions, in a place called Tremseh (map), a roadside village 15-16 miles northwest of Hama. The range of deaths varies greatly, but there are many reports that between 100 and 220 people were killed in the village, a village of only around 6,000 residents.

Let's recap what we know for sure.

For starters, this massacre did not come fully unanticipated. Early on Thursday morning, EA received reports, and posted videos, that a series of towns, Kornaz, Jalama, and Tremseh (from north to south). What was curious about these reports was both the voracity of the attacks on these towns and their remote location. Previous to this, a large amount of violence has occurred on the road that runs from Kafr Zita to Khan Sheikhoun, or further northwest in Qa'allat al Madiq. I did not know where Tremseh or Jalama were before I made those early reports. The reports, all from different sources, that three villages were heavily attacked on the same road, suggested to us that a fairly major military operation was occurring along that route. It was also interesting that so many buildings in all three villages were reportedly on fire, suggesting that there may have been similar shells used against all three areas.

Click to read more ...

Thursday
Jul122012

Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: An Ambassador Defects

2155 GMT: Syria. We must stress that the news from Tremseh (map) is still unconfirmed, but the competing narratives have already emerged. First, the Syrian government's narrative:

Next, a narrative posted by an activist:

Click to read more ...

Thursday
Jul122012

Turkey Live Coverage (12 July): Tension with Moscow around the Corner?

1800 GMT: The US ambassador to Turkey, Francis Ricciardone, spoke about the Turkish downed jet last month:

Our ally lost its two pilots. It seems that they were in an unarmed plane. As the US government, we conveyed all information we had in hand to the Turkish government. We took side with the Turkish government, conveyed our condolences. American technical rescue opportunities cooperated with the Turkish side. We were glad that the pilots were found.

1545 GMT: Turkey's EU Minister & Chief Negotiator Egemen Bagis has spoken to Turkish daily Star regarding 'terrorism' and Kurdish language:

Turkey has a bleeding wound: Terror! After we get rid of this terror problem, there could be many meaningful regaulations to be made in Turkey. However, the priority of Turkey is to stop the bloodshed. Only aftet his, just as English, French and German; why shouldn't my children learn Kurdish, Persian and Arabic, all of which are effective languages providing opportunities in trade? 

1340 GMT: AKP's deputy of the southeastern province of Diyarbakir, Galip Ensarioglu, said that the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) must be taken into the peace process since it could destabilize the peace atmosphere otherwise.

Click to read more ...

Thursday
Jul122012

Syria Document: The Map of Sexualised Violence (Women Under Siege) 

Honor student Zainab, 16, of the Khalidiya neighbourhood of Homs says she stopped attending classes after soldiers kidnapped, raped, and killed some of her schoolmates in January--- she is now in Lebanon (Photo: Matilde Gattoni)


Government forces and others appear to be carrying out appalling sexualized attacks against women, men, and children in Syria as the conflict there continues. Although we are unable to independently confirm these stories — Syria is simply too dangerous, and our research staff too small — they are consistent both internally and within the news and NGO reports telling similar stories from the Syrian conflict.

Click to read more ...

Thursday
Jul122012

The Latest from Iran (12 July): Keeping the Oil Flowing....Maybe

1551 GMT: Nuclear Watch. The latest ponderings of David Ignatius of The Washington Post on the nuclear discussions have little to do with an objective assessment of the situation (see 1505 GMT). Instead, the one paragraph of value is the spin from Western officials:

U.S. analysts believe that the past three months of talks should at least have convinced the Iranians that their bargaining position is weak. Tehran’s hard line hasn’t prevented the imposition of new sanctions, it hasn’t amplified Europe’s economic jitters and it hasn’t fractured the P5+1 coalition. Now the real bargaining begins, in the view of some U.S. and European officials, with economic sanctions adding more pressure on Tehran every day.

Then there is this curious conclusion:

The Obama administration has opted to work with international coalitions to confront Syria and Iran. This still seems like the most sensible policy. But if these multilateral efforts are failing, it will fall to the United States to devise an alternative strategy. If the United States wants to get to “yes” in these negotiations, it will have to bargain more independently and aggressively.

Is Ignatius suggesting --- either on his own behalf or that of officials feeding him the lines --- that Washington should break away from European partners and deal one-on-one with Tehran? And what does "aggressively" mean?

Click to read more ...

Thursday
Jul122012

Bahrain Feature: The "Security" Web --- The Kingdom Talks with Saudi Arabia, Britain, and the US

Bahrain's Commander-in-Chief Hosts US CENTCOM CommandersWhilst meetings are part of every government's day, a series of encounters in the past week suggest that security and Saudi union is again very much on the mind of Bahrain --- and its allies.

The backdrop to this activity took place on Sunday, when the Bahrain Interior Minister, Shaikh Rashid bin Abdullah Al Khalifa, visited his Saudi counterpart, Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. The Saudi Gazette reported, "The talks focused on the recent raids by the Bahraini security forces that resulted in the uncovering of 'terrorist hideouts' and seizure of materials used for manufacturing explosive devices." The Prince "lauded the cooperation between the two countries in security aspects".

Click to read more ...