The Latest from Iran (17 July): "We Will March Past Sanctions" (Or Maybe Not.)

See also Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society
The Latest from Iran (16 July): We Are Here for Your Security

---

1942 GMT: Economy Watch. How significant is this critical article from Fars, linked to the Revolutionary Guards?

The site reports that some Iranians cannot afford essential food such as bread and cheese because of inflation and sanctions. Asking MPs to stop price rises, Fars warns of unrest in the Bazaar and the fear and disappointment of people.

And there is another voice admitting difficulties --- Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has said 20% of the country's economic problems are due to sanctions.

Click to read more ...

Syria Analysis: It's Not Quite "The Battle for Damascus"...But It's An Important Fight

Fighting has been now raging in neighbourhoods of Damascus for more than three days. Even a quick look at an interactive map of the fighting, posted on Monday, established that the regime has a serious challenge on its hands, as it has been unable to dislodge insurgent fighters from the southern part of the capital:

View Syria - 2012 July 16 - EA Worldview in a larger map

EA's in-depth assessment of the Free Syrian Army, posted last Wednesday, assessed that the regime is now weak enough that it is vulnerable to a sudden takeover of the capital, for example through a series of surprise insurgent attacks. So is this the Battle for Damascus?

Click to read more ...

Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society (Arseh Sevom)

The weekly round-up of developments inside Iran from Arseh Sevom, an NGO devoted to human rights and civil society:

In this week’s review, a former IRGC general writes a letter (1) which reads like a confession over the mass executions of the 1980s, the nuclear issue, and the flawed 2009 presidential elections. International sanctions combined with economic mismanagement are causing pain in Iran as families find themselves on the streets (2), paychecks go unpaid, workers strike (3), and projects “sleep". Reporters without Borders protest the detention of journalists in Iran (4), and the 12-year-old daughter of imprisoned lawyer Nassrin Sotoudeh receives notice that she cannot travel abroad (5). Iranians campaign against mandatory hijab (6) and a young woman writes a letter to an Ayatollah questioning its purpose: “Does this covering mean that I cease to exist in the society?” (6)The chief of the morals police calls for an end to State TV programming showing people eating chicken (7). One mosque encourages its members to voluntarily give up their satellite dishes and receivers (8).

Activists Protest for Release of Iranian Journalists

A demonstration organized by activists from Reporters without Borders outside Iran Air office in the Champs Elysees in Paris attracted attention as it raised questions about the well-being of the jailed journalists in Iran.

Activists in Paris used mock injuries and shackles to express solidarity with their Iranian peers behind bars.(Click to tweet)

Click to read more ...

Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Fighting Across the Country

A 9-minute video of street fighters in the Midan section of Damascus on Monday

See also Syria Analysis: It's Not Quite "The Battle for Damascus"...But It's An Important Fight
Bahrain Snapshot: The Curious Tale of The American and $11 Million in Cash --- What Does It Mean?
Monday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Fighting in Damascus

---

1935 GMT: Syria. A map of Damascus, a snap shot posted by the Syrian Uprising 2011 Information Centre:

click for larger image

A snapshot of what is happening in Damascus now. The modern city centre is marked in Green. Strong opposition areas where clashes are reported are marked in Red. Military bases are marked as trucks, intelligence bases as question marks while flags show important government building such as parliament, ministries and Ba'ath Party buildings.

The map is visually striking, but if we were to make our own, it would show an even stronger presence of opposition fighters and popular support in some of those blank areas. Some of the area between the green and the eastern red is also a conflict zone, but the presence of military soldiers and armored vehicles has kept the peace so far today. Also, some of the areas northeast of the green are also heavily embattled. Though these areas are not "opposition strongholds" per se, just because they have not been filled in does not mean that the regime has significant there. By the same token, none of the areas in red are in opposition control, but they have a large presence of opposition fighters, and popular support for the opposition in many of these areas is overwhelming.

Click to read more ...

Britain Feature: Police "Made Up Evidence" Against Student Held as Terrorist Suspect

Rizwaan Sabir with University of Nottingham Security, May 2011Four years ago, University of Nottingham postgraduate candidate Rizwaan Sabir was held for seven days without charge. The reason for suspicion? As part of his dissertation research on tactics and discourse of "terrorism", he had downloaded a publicly-available training manual from Al Qa'eda.

Sabir was never charged and eventually moved to Ph.D. study at the University of Bath, with the police paying him $20,000 compensation in September 2011. However, his friend Hicham Yezza, an administrator at Nottingham, was also interrogated and then held for months, under threat of deportation, on an immigration charge. 

Now the results of the internal investigation over the police's handling of the case indicates officers "created" details of an interview with Dr Rod Thornton, the University of Nottingham's speciaist on terrorism.

Click to read more ...

Bahrain Snapshot: The Curious Tale of The American and $11 Million in Cash --- What Does It Mean?

The curious tale of an American and $11 million in cash was "officially" put to bed yesterday with State media publishing a detailed account, following comments by the Acting General Director of Anti-corruption, Economic and Electronic Security.

On Friday, Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya published the claim that an American, coming from Italy, had entered the country with $11 million in cash. Al-Arabiya's report --- now deleted, but archived elsewhere --- quoted an official:

A Bahraini source told Al Arabiya that the sum is linked to a local currency-exchange firm owned by a Jewish-Bahraini family. The source said that the sum is allocated to support a political opposition society.

Within hours, Al-Arabiya published an article retracting the story after Bahrain officials within the Interior and Foreign Ministries told them that "nobody was arrested", that the "cash entered the country legally", and that "the cash belongs to civilian employees who work for the US". The Ministry of Interior also released a denial.

The original rumour likely stems from hardline loyalists, who have been boosting an anti-American stance, fostered by a conspiratorial belief that the US is working with Israeli and Iranian forces to undermine both the Bahraini and Saudi regimes. Typically, their paranoia has focused on the State Department, recently targeting the US Ambassador. The propaganda that follows often goes unchecked by the regime.

The quick and extensive correction of this story suggests the influence the Pentagon is able to wield with allies in the Bahraini regime. However, those Pentagon officials could well be concerned by the fact that both Al Arabiya pieces refer to previous comments by the Commander-in-Chief of the Bahrain Defense Forces, Khalifa bin Ahmed Al Khlifa, accusing US NGOs of working to forment a "Shi’ite coup". The closing paragraph to a story on the $11 million by regime-linked Bahrain Chronicle is also likely to give the Pentagon pause for thought that conspiracy theories by hardliners are now encompassing the Fifth Fleet:

Sources have also confirmed that members of Al-Wefaq Society have been seen entering the American Base in Juffair at late times during the night on different days. The purpose of these visits has yet to be determined as well.

The Latest from Iran (16 July): We Are Here for Your Security

Maya Neyestani illustrates the warning of Iran's Police Chief against films and television showing people eating chicken, as it encourages the poor "to stab the rich"

---

1720 GMT: Persian Gulf Watch. A US military supply ship fired today at a small boat in the Persian Gulf after it came too close, apparently killing one person on board, American officials said.

The USNS Rappahannock, a fuel resupply ship, fired on what the officials called a "small, white pleasure craft" 10 miles from the Dubai port of Jebel Ali.

The Navy said in a statement, "In accordance with Navy force protection procedures, the sailors on the USNS Rappahannock...used a series of non-lethal, preplanned responses to warn the vessel before resorting to lethal force. The U.S. crew repeatedly attempted to warn the vessel's operators to turn away from their deliberate approach. When those efforts failed to deter the approaching vessel, the security team on the Rappahannock fired rounds from a .50-caliber machine gun."

Fars briefly had the item at the top of its homepage, but the entry has now disappeared.

Click to read more ...

Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Fighting in Damascus

View Syria - 2012 July 16 - EA Worldview in a larger map

An Interactive map of today's events. Click on the location to see a link to our news entry, or click on the link above to open the map in a larger window

See also Syria Audio Feature: "Gradually The Regime is Losing Control" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Bahrain Feature: The Underground Network of Doctors
Turkey Analysis: Syria and Barzani Unsettle Ankara's Official Policy on Kurdistan
Bahrain Feature: The Stalling of Economic Reforms
Sunday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: "Battle" or "Massacre" in Tremseh?

---

2020 GMT: Syria. The LCC reports that 84 people have been killed today, including civilians and Free Syrian Army soldiers:

In Hama there were 29 martyrs, 20 in Homs, 9 in Damascus, 8 in Aleppo, 8 in Daraa, 4 in Deir Ezzor, 3 in Idlib and 3 in Damascus Suburbs.

The number may be surprising for some readers, as the amount killed in Damascus appears to be extremely low considering the scale of the fighting today. There are a few possible reasons for this. First, and perhaps most importantly, the fighting did not seem to progress. Though it was widespread, the FSA did not capture any significant territory, and the security forces did not dislodge any FSA positions. Though the FSA didn't necessarily hold ground, and the battle lines in some areas were fluid, the FSA was not directly challenged by the regime.

However, the numbers simply reflect that while the battles in Damascus are relatively new, the battles in Hama, Homs, Aleppo, Idlib, Daraa, and Deir Ez Zor are raging. While any one day may post a higher or lower casualty figure, in parts of the country "civil war" isn't a designation from the Red Cross, it's now a familiar reality.

However, with reports of conflict continuing well into the night in Damascus, that number may still rise. If there are dead or injured too close to battle, those numbers may not be released for some time.

Tomorrow will likely see a continuation of some of this fighting, so stay tuned.

Click to read more ...

Syria Audio Feature: "Gradually The Regime is Losing Control" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

I had a lengthy, wide-ranging discussion with Monocle 24 this morning about latest developments in Syria, including fighting across the country,  last Thursday's mass killing in Tremseh, and diplomatic manoeuvres and facades.

To get to the interview, launch "The Globalist" page, click on the programme for 16 July, and go to 1:02.20.

Bahrain Feature: The Underground Network of Doctors (Wellman)

Makeshift Clinic in BahrainIt is Friday night and Dr. Mohamed is on standby.

“It’s always the busiest day of the week for us,” he says as he holds out his cell phone to show a photo he received seconds earlier. The image is of a young man with birdshot embedded in his leg. It is a call for help.

“The government has been using a lot of birdshot on demonstrators lately,” he explains, “and the wounded come to us for treatment.”

Dr. Mohamed, who asked to have his full name withheld, is part of an underground network of medics in Bahrain who provide illegal care for anti-government protesters injured in nightly clashes with security forces. Most of those hurt refuse to go to either public or private hospitals, no matter how grave their wounds, fearing they will be arrested there.

Click to read more ...