Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Story is Beyond Damascus

Mural on a wall in Aleppo, Syria: "Revolution is A Female"

See also Syria Audio Feature: "Assad May Be Slipping from Power" --- Scott Lucas with the BBC
Syria Revealed: The Quiet Planning for a Country After Assad
Sudan Feature: Can Activists Maintain Hope Amid Waning Protests?
Friday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: 217 Die Amid Question, "Where's Bashar?"

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2113 GMT: Syria. The Local Coordination Committees of Syria claims that 131 people, including 18 defectors and 11 children, have been killed by security forces today.

2051 GMT: Syria. A large anti-regime demonstration tonight in central Aleppo:

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Syria Revealed: The Quiet Planning for a Country After Assad

Steven Heydemann, involving in planning with Syrian opposition groups, on the US Public Broadcasting Service this week

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For the last six months, 40 senior representatives of various Syrian opposition groups have been meeting quietly in Germany under the tutelage of the U.S. Institute for Peace (USIP) to plan for how to set up a post-Assad Syrian government.

The project, which has not directly involved U.S. government officials but was partially funded by the State Department, is gaining increased relevance this month as the violence in Syria spirals out of control and hopes for a peaceful transition of power fade away. The leader of the project, USIP's Steven Heydemann, an academic expert on Syria, has briefed administration officials on the plan, as well as foreign officials, including on the sidelines of the Friends of Syria meeting in Istanbul last month.

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Sudan Feature: Can Activists Maintain Hope Amid Waning Protests? (Peterson)

France 24 on "Khartoum's Revolution"

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"They are geniuses, we must admit this," says an engineering student activist, about the regime's ability to survive political and economic crises. "They manipulate Sudanese minds and know how to do it, to tell people what they want to hear. Now, for example, people are tortured, but you would not know it unless it happened to a relative. But the economic crisis has made people open their eyes more."

Those who have taken to the streets are mostly activists, says this student, who like other activists interviewed for this story asked not to be named. "But a regular Sudanese is just sitting in his house saying, 'Good work,'" says the student. "They are not physically engaged."

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: 217 Die Amid Question, "Where's Bashar?"

Insurgents take over a post on the Turkish border on Thursday

See also Syria Opinion: "Insurgency, Not Diplomacy, Will End This Conflict"
Syria Feature: Alawites Flee to the Coast
Thursday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Regime is Shocked and Awed

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2030 GMT: Syria. At least initially, the greatest threat that the Syrian crisis poses to the region has nothing to do with terrorism or chemical weapons or cross-border firefights, but has everything to do with the massive amounts of refugees flooding some countries, particularly Turkey and Lebanon, but also Iraq and Jordan. As fighting is heating up in Damascus, the amount of refugees in Lebanon has rapidly risen to an extraordinary number:

Between 8,500 and 30,000 Syrians have crossed into Lebanon in the last 48 hours, an agency spokeswoman, Melissa Fleming, said at a news briefing in Geneva. The new flood adds to an exodus of more than 112,000 who have already registered as refugees in Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and Jordan, and many thousands more who have fled but not registered. United Nations relief agencies say three-quarters of them are women and children, often arriving in a desperate state with no more than the clothes they are wearing. Internally, as many as a million people have been displaced, according to the Syrian Arab Red Crescent.

1942 GMT: Syria. The Free Syrian Army has engaged the Assad military in heavy fighting in the city of Zabadani, northwest of Damascus (map), for the second day in a row today...

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Syria Opinion: "Insurgency, Not Diplomacy, Will End This Conflict"

The Kurdish flag is raised in Amouda in northeast Syria after the opposition took control of the town

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I was struck at how today's headlines had missed the boat. Assad's military was shelling Damascus because it had lost control of large swathes of the capital city - THAT was the headline. The UN story is a distraction for the same reason: it misses the big picture.

That big picture? It is now a near-certainty, whether we like it or not, that insurgency rather than diplomacy will end this conflict. The victories of the Free Syrian Army, and/or their defeats, will determine the course of this contest and how long it will take.

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Syria Feature: Alawites Flee to the Coast (Paul)

TartusOn a recent Sunday afternoon, the Syrian port city of Tartus buzzed in the summer heat. Car showrooms displayed lines of new vehicles. Markets full of clothes, furniture, and household knicknacks bustled with customers. Clouds of nargileh smoke wafted from hookah pipes at the see-and-be-seen restaurants lining sandy Mediterranean beaches. Yachts bobbed indifferently in the port.

This Middle Eastern haven, however, lies just 60 miles west of Homs, the battle-broken city that is the center of gravity in the civil war that has shattered Syria, killing more than 16,000 people and displacing a quarter of a million more. Tartus, though, has become a refuge for the country's minority Alawi Shiite population. "As an Alawi, I don't really care about Bashar al-Assad," says 30-year-old Majed, referring to Syria's president, who is also Alawi. "The only thing that concerns me is security."

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The Latest from Iran (20 July): Reformists and the Next Election

See also The Latest from Iran (19 July): Nervously Watching Syria

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1342 GMT: Trade Watch. Fars reports that the first load of Indian wheat exchanged in barter for oil has been distributed among Tehran bakeries.

Just as interesting is the jibe by the website that domestic wheat mills are working at 50% capacity.

1253 GMT: Your Tehran Friday Prayer Update. Hojatoleslam Kazem Seddiqi is pleased to tell the audience, "Today the whole world envies us for the Supreme Leader as the defender of religion. In Islamic society, the ruler is like qibla [the direction faced by a Muslim during prayer]."

Seddiqi added, "Those who don't accept the Supreme Leader, don't accept the rule of God."

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Regime is Shocked and Awed

Protesters in Hama tonight

See also UAE Interview: The Latest Crackdown on Human Rights Activists
Syria Analysis: The Narrow Intelligence of US Intelligence Services
Syria Audio Special: The Importance of the Damascus Bomb --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Turkey Analysis: Discussions over Syria in Moscow --- What Do They Mean?
Wednesday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: UN Talks, Damascus Fights

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2031 GMT: Syria. As the fight for territory heats up, so too will Assad's use of artillery and mortars to dislodge insurgents. But most of the casualties from these events are actually civilians.

Zabadani, northwest of Damascus (map), is a perfect example. As battles rage elsewhere in the city, this shell falls on a residential neighborhood:

2020 GMT: Syria. Earlier today, the CFDPC posted this report, a summary of stories it has received from its contacts in Damascus:

The bombardment is still on for the 5th day in a row, targeting the districts of Damascus more fiercely than ever. The bombardment is the strongest on Al Qaboun and Al Meedan districts as regime's militias are using tanks and helicopters and are attempting to invade the districts.

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UAE Interview: The Latest Crackdown on Human Rights Activists

Professor Nasser bin Ghaith, prosecuted in 2011Since 16 July, at least 10 activists have been arrested and deports in the United Arab Emirates, allegedly for planning to undermine the country's national security. According to the Gulf Centre for Human Rights, most were seized from homes or businesses after the State prosecutor claimed on 15 July that a plot had been discovered.

The latest arrests follow a wave earlier in the year and the prosecution of five prominent dissidents --- Ahmed Mansoor, an engineer and blogger; Nasser bin Ghaith, an economist and university lecturer at Sorbonne Abu Dhabi; and online activists Fahad Salim Dalk, Ahmed Abdul-Khaleq, and Hassan Ali al-Khamis --- in 2011.

EA WorldView attempted to contact several Emirati activists and commentators. None were willing to speak on the record but one activist agreed to be interviewed under a pseudonym.

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Josh Shahryar: Which emirates are the arrests concentrated in?

Abu Israar: The latest arrests were in Ras Al Khaimah, Ajman, Sharjah and Dubai. These arrests are done on a federal level and local Emirates have no hand in it. It's all done by the state security based in Abu Dhabi.

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The Latest from Iran (19 July): Nervously Watching Syria

See also The Latest from Iran (18 July): Storm Clouds Gather Over The Economy

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2023 GMT: Reformist Watch. Deutsche Welle summarises the reformist manoeuvres over the 2013 Presidential election (see 0929 GMT) --- former President Mohammad Khatami, his brother Mohammed Reza Khatami, and former Minister of Interior Abdollah Nouri are all busy "giving the green light" to participation.

1643 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The Iranian Teachers Union is challenging the arrest of a member of its executive board, Mahmoud Bagheri, in a letter to the head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani.

The physics teacher has been sentenced to a total of 9 1/2 years in prison on two charges. He was arrested on Monday to serve out his term.

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