US Analysis: Why The Tax Returns May Sink the Romney Campaign

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Sadly for Mitt Romney, any valid reasons for not releasing his tax records have now been overwhelmed by the perception of his campaign's inept response. In the business world where he made his fortune, his insistence on the privacy of confidential documents might be a virtue, but in an election for the President of the United States, it has become the vice that may sink him. Even if he does release the records, and even if there is nothing shocking in them, the perception will remain that he has a different idea of the American Dream that he wishes to protect than most of the people he hopes to represent.

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Syria Analysis: The Narrow Intelligence of US Intelligence Services

US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta warns of the presence of Al Qa'eda in Syria

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Like all of us, the CIA has been caught off-guard by the pace of events in Syria. The advance of insurgents in parts of the country might have been expected, but suddenly the battle was in Damascus. Then came Wednesday's surprise: the bomb that decimated the top ranks of the Assad regime.

So what does a responsible intelligence service do? It launches a public-relations campaign.

The CIA got in touch with its long-time if unofficial Press Secretary, David Ignatius of The Washington Post, and the Obama Administration also fed lines to Helene Cooper of The New York Times. The message? Ignatius declares, "President Obama is seeking a 'managed transition' in Syria with the twin goals of removing President Bashar al-Assad as soon as possible and doing so without the evaporation of the authority of the Syrian state."

Using Ignatius and Cooper's transcripts, what are the CIA's priorities in that managed transition?

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Syria Audio Special: The Importance of the Damascus Bomb --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

Smoke rising from Damascus this morning

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I spoke with Monocle 24's Midori House this evening about the Damascus bombing and other events across Syria --- the conversation ranged from the impact upon President Assad to the impact upon the Syrian people. Take-away line, echoing EA's James Miller, "Beyond the bomb, the significance is in the damage to confidence in the regime."

To get to the discussion, click on the Midori House site and press Play for 18 July. The item begins at 6:43, with my contribution starting from 9:42.

Turkey Analysis: Discussions over Syria in Moscow --- What Do They Mean?

President Putin & Prime Minister ErdoganTurkey's link with Moscow is elevated if Russia is keen on adapting a new strategy that gives up on Assad and increase its pressure for a transitional government as agreed in Geneva in the short-term. As long as the Russian interest in Syria as a powerful bargaining chip vis-a-vis NATO is protected, Moscow is ready to give credibility to Ankara.

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The Latest from Iran (18 July): Storm Clouds Gather Over The Economy

See also Iran Feature: Protests and Repression --- The Iranian Arabs in Khuzestan
Iran Analysis: Larijani and the Revolutionary Guards Warn the Government Over the Economy
The Latest from Iran (17 July): "We Will March Past Sanctions" (Or Maybe Not.)

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Fars: An Iranian Faces the Economy1654 GMT: Foreign Affairs Watch (Yemeni Front). Yemeni officials have arrested members of a spy ring allegedly led by a former commander in Iran's Revolutionary Guard, State news agency SABA reported today.

SABA said the spy cell, made up of Yemenis, had operated in Yemen as well as in the Horn of Africa and that it had kept an operations centre in the Yemeni capital Sana'a.

President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi said, "We hope that our brothers in Iran won't interfere in Yemen's affairs and that they take into consideration the sensitive situation in Yemen. Leave Yemen alone, enough is enough."

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: UN Talks, Damascus Fights

1958 GMT: Syria. Defections have been occurring at a faster and faster pace, but today there were reports that a relative trickle, perhaps a hundred ot a few hundred soldiers every week, may have finnaly reached flood-stage, with unconfirmed reports that hundreds of fighters jumped ship.

There are reports that a single new brigade of Free Syrian Army soldiers, the "Unification Brigade" claiming to be made up of soldiers from many different backgrounds, contained more than 100 soldiers, all of whom appear to be heavily armed, and that those soldiers are also equipped with multiple vehicles armed with heavy machine guns and anti-aircraft weapons.

Massive Brigade of the FSA formed in #Aleppo - "Unification Brigade" - youtube.com/watch?v=AGIky5… #Syria

— Sami al-Hamwi (@HamaEcho) July 18, 2012

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Morocco Feature: The Rise and Fall of the February 20 Movement (Benchemsi)

Mass protest over unemployment, 20 January 2012

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Seen from afar, Morocco’s 2011 events are the pitch-perfect tale of popular protests with a happy ending: after huge pro-democracy demonstrations broke out, the government complied without firing a bullet and a reformed Constitution was approved by popular referendum. Then the street movement gracefully faded, giving way to change in the polls: a few months later, free elections resulted in a severe defeat of the incumbent government and the spectacular rise of a fresh political party—one that was never associated to government before.

Yet this rosy narrative, though built on real facts, doesn’t quite reflect the reality. In truth, what happened in Morocco in 2011 was a war of position and speed involving underground activists, maverick political groups, and a subtly resilient royal administration. It was also a conflict of generations, pitting twenty-something wholehearted newcomers against old school, wily politicians. Finally, it was a case study of political tactics and stratagems—ones that made the national balance of powers shift twice in a year.

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Iran Feature: Protests and Repression --- The Iranian Arabs in Khuzestan (Aleaziz and Mills)

The Iranian government, harnessing cultural prejudice and concerns about the region's strategic importance, consistently portrays the Arabs who live in Khuzestan as easily controlled pawns of Western aggressors and radical Islamist groups. It doesn't help that Saddam Hussein called Khuzestan "Arabistan" and disastrously tried to "liberate" it during the Iran-Iraq War -- though, in spite of his rhetoric, Iranian Arabs for the most part remained loyal to Iran during the invasion. Beyond media tools, the government also uses its judicial system to penalize those Iranian Arabs who decide to protest; in late June, it executed four Iranian Arabs in a move that came in for criticism at the United Nations.

As Iran struggles to contain the collapse of its economy, the government must also keep tabs on yet another potentially problematic front: its Arab minority in Khuzestan, which happens to live in the most oil-rich part of the country.

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US Audio Feature: The Arizona Sheriff & President Obama's Birth Certificate --- Scott Lucas with the BBC

Photo: Matt York (AP)On Tuesday afternoon, a controversial Arizona sheriff named Joe Arpaio said his "volunteer posse" of investigators had found President Obama's birth certificate is definitely fraudulent. This would disqualify Obama, who was born in Hawaii according to official records, from standing for re-election.

I spoke with BBC WM about the personality and politics behind the diversion of Arpaio, renowned for re-introducing chain gangs and stunts such as pink handcuffs for prisoners.

For example, the more important story --- overlooked in the Associated Press summary of Arpaio's conference --- is that the sheriff is facing a court hearing in a class-action lawsuit on Thursday, challenging his crackdown on Hispanic men and women as "illegal" residents of Phoenix and Maricopa County.

Then there is the small matter that Arpaio, sheriff since 1992, is standing for re-election in November....

The item starts just after the 1:20.30 mark.

Iran Analysis: Larijani and the Revolutionary Guards Warn the Government Over the Economy

Ali LarijaniIn the last week, the Government has tried to stem the criticism by shutting down critical websites, such as Alef, linked to leading MP Ahmad Tavakoli. It has tried to blame everything from inflation to drought to duststorms on the "enemy".

But, if figures such as Ali Larijani and factions like the Revolutionary Guards are making admissions and issuing warnings, how long can this response dam the discontent?

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