Syria Audio Analysis: The Significance of the Israeli Airstrikes --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

I spoke this morning, along with correspondent Daniella Peled, on Monocle 24's The Globalist about the details and consequences of Israel's airstrikes inside Syria this weekend.

Listen from 7:09 mark --- with my contribution from 10:20 --- on The Globalist's homepage or in separate pop-out window

Take-away points:

1. A lot of the supposed information on the airstrikes --- such as Israel targeting weapons like Iranian-made Fateh 110 missiles or Israel acting without notifying the US --- is misleading or incorrect;

1. "Everyone --- the regime, the insurgency, regime supporters like Iran, opposition supporters like the US, Turkey, and Arab States --- has to re-calculate strategy in light of these attacks";

3. "But fundamentally, this does not change the calculus: is Assad going to help firm or step down? Are the opposition and insurgency going to be able to unify to help build internationa support?"

4. "The Israelis are trying to degrade Assad's military capabilities, which just happens to help the insurgents if they decide to make a push on Damascus."

I also talk about Sunday's curious report that a United Nations investigator has claimed "suspicions" of insurgent use of the nerve agent sarin.

Bahrain Audio Feature: Protests, the Grand Prix, and a Gloomy Future --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

I spoke with Monocle 24's The Globalist this morning about this weekend's Formula 1 Grand Prix, protests by some opposition groups, and the political future.

Listen to discussion from 7:40 mark on The Globalist homepage or in a pop-out window

The take-away lines: 1) the regime, unless there is significant pressure, will not carry out reforms; 2) the opposition --- some of which are inside the National Dialogue, some of whom are outside --- are too fragmented to exert this pressure; and 3) the international community, notably the US, will also not be exerting any influence to push the regime beyond the appearance of the Dialogue.

EA Audio Analysis: The G8, Syria, Iran, and North Korea --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

I spoke with Monocle 24's The Globalist this morning about today's meeting of the G8, the eight leading nations trying to resolve the world's economic and political difficulties.

Listen from around the 8-minute mark on The Globalist homepage or in a pop=out window.

Topics include Syria, Iran, North Korea, and the economy as well as the general question, "Does the G8 really do anything?"

Syria Audio Analysis: Evaluating the New Opposition Coalition --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

I spoke with The Globalist this morning about yesterday's announcement of a "Syrian National Coalition" to lead the opposition, including the election of Damascus cleric Moaz al-Khatib as President with prominent dissident Riad Seif and Suhair al-Atassi, one of the few women prominent in the opposiiton, as deputies.

We discussed the manoeuvres that led to the Coalition, its aims, and the likelihood that it can achieve them. Take-away line: the opposition is hoping to establish a "provisional government" in northern Syria, with the backing of the international community for a protected zone --- but can the factions within the Coalition work together to reach that goal?

There is also discussion of the weekend's escalation in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, with Israel firing a "warning missile" after Syrian mortars hit the area.

The conversation starts at the 1:34.45 mark.

US Elections 2012 Audio: Obama's Victory and "What's Next for Foreign Policy" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

This is one of the most challenging and thus productive interviews I have had on radio and television this year. Jeffrey Kaufman of ABC News and I spoke with Monocle 24's The Globalist around the range of foreign policy challenges facing President Obama even as he celebrated his victory late Tuesday night.

Topics range from the US presence in Afghanistan to the relationship with China to the global economic situation.

To get to the discussion, go to the 1:02.30 mark.

Syria Audio Feature: Why Insurgent Advance Is More Important Than The Ceasefire --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

Insurgent Sniper in AleppoI spoke early this morning with Monocle 24's The Globalist about the four-day ceasefire for Eid al-Adha and the latest events on the ground in Syria.

My take-away is that the insurgent advances in Aleppo and elsewhere present the Assad regime with a dilemma: either concede the political and military ground and look towards a longer-term ceasefire and a settlement for a transitional government, or regroup and renew the assault in the hope of pushing the opposition back.

My prediction was that the latter will occur, and developments today reinforce that view.

To get to the discussion, open The Globalist's homepage, click on the programme for 26/10, and go to the 12:13 mark.

Iran Audio Feature: Can Iraq Stop Tehran Flying Weapons to Syria? --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

I spoke this morning with Monocle 24's The Globalist this morning about Iraq, Iran, and the Syrian conflict.

The discussion first considered Baghdad's declaration this weekend that it will command Syrian-bound Iranian planes overflying Iraq to land for inspection, following American claims that Tehran has been using the route to move military equipment and personnel to Damascus.

[Editor's Note: Iraqi officials have said today that they stopped and searched a Syrian-bound Iranian cargo plane for weapons, but allowed it to continue as no prohibited items were found.]       

The conversation then opened up to Iran's role in the Syrian conflict to discussion of the state of the Syrian insurgency and whether any political resolution is possible.

To listen, go to The Globalist homepage, click on the programme for 2/10, and go to the 10-minute mark.

Syria Audio Feature: Assessing the Latest in Aleppo and Beyond --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

Insurgents seize the Anadan checkpoint, three miles northwest of Aleppo, this morning

See also Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Is Aleppo "A Nail in Assad's Coffin"?

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I spoke with Monocle 24's The Globalist this morning about developments in Aleppo and, equally important, beyond Syria's biggest city.

The take-away lines? Inside Aleppo, "the Assad regime cannot impose its authority", and outside it, "in large parts of Syria, especially in the north, the insurgents have taken control".

There is also analysis of the US position and its balancing of overt and covert action: "What the Americans want is for Assad to step down before there is an even worse situation....I think it's wishful thinking."

And there is conversation about the position of Syria's opposition: "To be honest with you, I don't think this is a question of what the opposition wants one year from now, three years from now, five years from now. I think the fight has overtaken that."

To listen to the discussion, go to The Globalist's homepage, click Play on the programme for 30 July, and go to the 11:57 mark. 

Syria Audio Feature: "Gradually The Regime is Losing Control" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

I had a lengthy, wide-ranging discussion with Monocle 24 this morning about latest developments in Syria, including fighting across the country,  last Thursday's mass killing in Tremseh, and diplomatic manoeuvres and facades.

To get to the interview, launch "The Globalist" page, click on the programme for 16 July, and go to 1:02.20.

Syria Audio Feature: "How Significant Are Sanctions?" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

I spoke with Monocle 24's The Globalist programme this morning to consider, amid latest sanctions by the European Union and Australia, the effectiveness of economic pressure on the Assad regime. Can the steps lead to President Assad's withdrawal from power? Will Russia and/or China help Damascus resist? 

To get to the programme, launch Monocle 24's Timeshift and click on the Globalist 24 icon.

The discussion starts at the 10:41 mark.