Iran Election Guide

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Thursday
Apr042013

Syria Live Coverage: Fighting on the Lebanon Border

1840 GMT: Rebels attack Bases Near Ma'arrat al Nouman. Why are the rebels moving so slowly? Perhaps the absolute best answer to this question is found by looking at the Ma'arrat Al Nouman, in Idlib province.

The city, a rebel stronghold, is flanked by two Assad bases, one to the south and the other to the east. These bases have been surrounded, isolated, pounded by mortars and rockets, and raked by snipers. But months have gone by, and the bases are still in regime control. Even with captured firepower, the rebels have been unable to crack the bases' outer defenses. Until the bases can be breached, a significant amount of rebel fighters and firepower is tied down. Furthermore, the bases still have the ability to launch attacks, especially artillery attacks, and the bases have been given significant air support by the Assad regime.

Here's some video reportedly taken near the Wadi Deif base, east of the city (map).

Click to read more ...

Wednesday
Apr032013

Israel, Palestine (and Beyond) Live: Israeli Jets Strike Gaza for 1st Time Since November

See also Egypt Video Discussion: The Political and Economic Struggles
Syria Live Coverage: A Snapshot of the Cost of War in Aleppo
Tuesday's Bahrain (and Beyond) Live: An Agenda for a National Dialogue?


1705 GMT: Egypt. Defying the judiciary, President Morsi has said Public Prosecutor Talaat Abdallah will remain in his position.

A Presidential spokesperson said a challenge to the court ruling ordering Abdallah's dismissal and the return of former Public Prosecutor Abdel Maguid Mahmoud is still being considered.

Last week, the Cairo Court of Appeals reinstated Mahmoud to his post, annulling a decree by Morsi replacing him with Talaat Abdallah.

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Wednesday
Apr032013

Iran Feature: The Olympic Medals for Worst Nuclear Commentary

Gold medallist Ray Takeyh, of the Council on Foreign Relations, describes his winning column


It's here! With talks between Iran and world powers set to resume in Kazakhstan on Friday, we have been deafened by a cacophony of furious typing --- the sound of reporters and analysts let loose a tsunami of Scary Headlines, such as Talks Will Not Work, or Iran Has New Evil Centrifuge Cascades In Hidden Underground Plants, and Iran Is Already A Nuclear Power, Anyway.

With so much sloppy reporting to choose from, it is hard to know where to start. So we have narrowed the playing field down to the very best (well, actually, the very worst), presenting the Olympic medals of bad Iran nuclear reporting. Rubin puffs: "The Wall Street Journal reports that Iran has already gamed its program so as to avoid Israel’s 'red line' [of militarised nuclear capability] but for all intents and purposes, [it has] become a nuclear weapons-ready power."

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Wednesday
Apr032013

Egypt Video Discussion: The Political and Economic Struggles (Al Jazeera English)


Al Jazeera English's Inside Story profiles the economic difficulties of Egypt and the effect on the political situation.

Guests are Ahmed Naguib a member of the Current Party, and co-founder of the Council of Trustees of the Revolution in Egypt; Mohammad El Masry, Professor of Media Studies at the American University in Cairo; and Angus Blair, President of the Signet Institute.

Wednesday
Apr032013

Iran Live Coverage: Seeking the "Unity" Candidate for the Presidency

1410 GMT: Election Watch. The conservative Jahan News tips off both nerves and in-fighting with its concern over photos of President Ahmadinejad's right-hand man, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, on monitors at Imam Khomeini International airport.

Jahan claimed that the photos, accompanied by short quotes, "reveal a serious intention to enter the elections" by Rahim-Mashai.

Rahim-Mashai, formerly Ahmadineajad's Chief of Staff, has not yet officially announced his candidacy. He may be blocked by the Guardian Council from standing, so the Ahmadinejad camp put up an alternative candidate, Minister of Roads Ali Nikzad, last weekend.

Jahan, linked to the politician Alireza Zakani, is still convinced that the President will pursue Plan A:

some say that Ahmadinejad will never take the risk because [Rahim-Mashai's] candidacy will not be approved by the Guardian Council. But others, who appear to have a more logical point, believe that not making Mashai a candidate puts in question the philosophy of the President in the prices he has paid for [Mashai] in the last several years.

Jahan concludes, “At this moment, the actions of Mashaei and the administration points in the direction of Esfandiar Rahim Mashai’s candidacy.”

Click to read more ...

Wednesday
Apr032013

Syria Live Coverage: A Snapshot of the Cost of War in Aleppo

1550 GMT: Today's death Toll. According to the Local Coordination Committees, 75 people have been killed so far today across the country - including 10 children:

27 martyrs were reported in Aleppo; 23 in Damascus and its Suburbs; 11 in Homs; 8 in Dara;3 in Idlib; 2 in Deir Ezzor; and 1 in Hama.

Several areas are under attack today, shelled by artillery and bombed from the sky, as fighting is intensifying in several districts, including the northeast. That rising violence, and the spread of fighting in some Kurdish districts, has convinced many residents to leave today. A video shared by Red Tornadoes in the comments shows the traffic leaving the Ashrifiyeh district, but it also matches many other reports we've seen today. Orient News interviewed a Kurdish activist who discussed the growing crisis there (video - Arabic):

See our note on the figures published by the LCC.

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Tuesday
Apr022013

Iran Live: Still Looking for "Unity" for the Election

The Supreme Leader's "2+1 Committee" --- MP Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, Khamenei advisor Ali Velayati, and Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf --- who are seeking a "unity" candidate for the Presidential election

See also Iran Analysis: This Week's Nuclear Talks --- A 5-Point Guide to the US and European Position
Monday's Iran Live: Will Iranians Celebrate "Islamic Republic Day"?


1410 GMT: Food Watch. Nasser Karimi offers another story on the soaring price of pistachios, a luxury for New Year celebrations, adding this twist:

The government, which usually tries to contain Iranians' anger over the economy, has heartily backed the pistachio boycott — again for reasons tied to the Western-led sanctions over Iran's nuclear program. Pistachio exports provide a small but important pipeline for foreign revenues at a time when sanctions are squeezing Iran's oil and gas sales. Authorities say fewer nuts consumed at home means more available to sell abroad.

The pale green nuts are Iran's top non-oil export, though admittedly they are very distant second. Iran earned at least $750 million last year from exporting the nut, with some estimates as high as $1 billion.

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Tuesday
Apr022013

Syria Feature: How "Independent Analysts" Are Breaking the Stories of the Conflict

Britain's Channel 4 profiles EA Worldview's James Miller and other independent analysts on Syria


On Saturday, news emerged of a new kind of weapon --- a 12-tube rocket launcher with a range of 8.5 to 13 kilometrees (5.5 to 8 miles) --- that has made it to the front lines of the Syrian conflict.

The news, significant in itself, is the latest development in the wider, important story of how Syrian insurgents are using foreign-supplied Croatian arms to make crucial gains against President Assad's troops.

These advances since January could even prove to be the tipping point in the two-year insurgency.

There may be another tipping point: by developing methods to gather information and analyze open-source intelligence, an emerging group of "independent analysts" are breaking news stories far ahead of any mainstream outlet.

And in doing so, they are changing the international conversation about Syria.

Click to read more ...

Tuesday
Apr022013

Iran Analysis: This Week's Nuclear Talks --- A 5-Point Guide to the US and European Position

1. The US and European partners will pursue the suspension of production of 20% uranium at the Fordoo plant --- although, in contrast to last June's proposals, they will not insist on a permanent shutdown --- and the despatch of Iran's existing 20% stock outside the country.

2. However, the US, Britain, France, and Germany will offer little new in return for this. The easing of sanctions on transfer of gold and precious materials --- a ban which was only imposed by the US on 6 February --- was also put forward at the high-level talks in late February.

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Tuesday
Apr022013

Bahrain (and Beyond) Live: An Agenda for a National Dialogue?

See also Syria Live: Insurgent Attacks in Central Aleppo
Monday's Mali (and Beyond) Live: At Least 7 Killed in Timbuktu Fighting


1745 GMT: Tunisia. Tunisian officials and personnel from the International Monetary Fund will begin a week-long meeting on Monday, with a view to completing a $1.78 billion loan by late April or early May.

The IMF loan accord would require Tunisia to commit to a set of structural economic reforms. While the government sees the IMF loan as key to advancing development in Tunisia, there has been considerable criticism of the measure within the country.

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