Syria Live Coverage: Insurgents Make Key Advance in South

1803 GMT: What's So Important About a Croatian Rocket Launcher? James Miller provides a snap analysis:

Today we posted evidence that a 12-tube 8.5-13km range Croatian rocket launcher has made it to the battlefields of Syria.

See also Syria Exclusive: New Arms for Insurgents --- The Case of the Croatian Multiple Rocket Launcher

Why does this matter?

There are three different levels of significance. The first is the military effectiveness of the weapon. The second level concerns what the weapon's presence says about the state of the international effort to arm the rebels. The third is a question about the rule of unintended consequences. We'll be treating these separately in a longer analysis, especially the last two, but this deserves some treatment now.

First, militarily this weapon is fairly significant. The rebels are constantly being hit by long range artillery and multiple launch rockets, so this helps level that playing field. Of course, even if all of the RAK-12s were given to the Syrian rebels, this would not match the regime's firepower. However, in our updates to our separate feature we've posted video that already shows this launcher targeting the Damascus International Airport. These weapons are extremely effective at attacking isolated regime bases over short, medium, and long range distances. This weapon could provide much needed help in cracking Assad's most formidable defenses, though it's still hard to see how a few of these weapons will make a significant difference. Also, the rebels have some similar weapons that they have captured from the regime, so the presence of a few rocket launchers is not going to dramatically change the situation.

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Egypt (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Prosecutor Orders Arrest of TV Host

Yemen Feature: A Snapshot of the "National Dialogue"
Syria Live Coverage: Insurgents Make Key Advance in South
Friday's Iraq (and Beyond) Live Coverage: At Least 17 Killed in Mosque Bombings

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Bassem Youssef1440 GMT: Egypt. Prosecutors have issued an arrest warrant for TV host and political satirist Bassem Youssef on accusations of insulting President Mohamed Morsi, denigrating Islam, and spreading false news with the aim of disrupting public order.

Youssef confirmed receiving an arrest warrant, saying he will head to the prosecution office Sunday "unless they [prosecution] send me a police car today and save me transportation trouble".

Youssef hosts a weekly satirical programme El-Bernameg (The Show) on the private satellite television channel CBC.

The complaints were filed by 12 citizens after Youssef's 1 March episode in which he mocked a Morsi TV interview.

In January, a number of Islamist lawyers filed a lawsuit against Youssef, accusing him of "undermining the standing of the President" during his show. However, charges were dropped before the case reached court.

Syria Exclusive: New Arms for Insurgents --- The Case of the Croatian Multiple Rocket Launcher

A rebel spokesman shows off a new weapon. Our sources suggest that this is a Croatian Rak-12.

UPDATE: This weapon has been spotted on the battlefield. Scroll to the bottom for details.

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To date, most of the insurgent arsenal in Syria has been captured from the regime's army. Other arms came from Croatia, as part of an international effort to bolster the insurgency. On Friday, we saw a new, mysterious weapon.

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Iran Live Coverage: The Pre-Election Fight Escalates with Ahmadinejad

1300 GMT: Obama Conspiracy Watch. Joanna Paraszczuk writes....

Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, the commander of the Basij militia, has accused President Obama of "congratulating the Iranian people in Persian but acting in Hebrew" in his message for Iranian New Year.

Naqdi accused Washington of spouting rhetoric and expecting the Iranian people to believe its slogans. Referring to a 2010 nuclear deal put forward by Iran, after mediation by Turkish and Brazilian leaders, the commadner said that Obama had promised to solve the issue but had refused to accept that deal.

Naqdi also commented on Michelle Obama's announcement of the Best Picture Oscar for the "anti-Iranian film" Argo, saying that her actions proved that the annual awards were political in nature.

"We are glad that these facts were made clear to the Iranian people," he said, noting that Michelle Obama had shown the world the truth about the Oscars.

Naqdi's comments follow those of a senior military commander, Yaghoub Soleimani that some "supporters of the Islamic Revolution" want to organize a prize for Michelle Obama for proving that Hollywood movies are politically and not artistically motivated.

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Yemen Feature: A Snapshot of the "National Dialogue" (Baron)

Photo: Hani Mohammed/APOutspoken feminists rub shoulders --- metaphorically, at least --- with Salafis. Youth activists mingle with establishment politicians. A representative of the Houthis, a rebel group turned political movement that has fought with the government for the past decade, helps run the show. Delegates from the southern provinces constantly vying for autonomy casually cross conversational red lines on independence talk as others in the room veer on declaring secession treasonous.

It will be months before anyone can say whether Yemen's ambitious national dialogue conference, slated to tackle major issues such as constitutional reform and restructuring the government, was a success. But the conference, which began last week and will last into the fall, can already celebrate one achievement: In this divided country, it has managed to get representatives from the bulk of the key factions in the same room.

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Syria Analysis: International Aid Fuels Key Insurgent Victories in South

View Map of Daraa in a larger map

Map of Rebel and Regime Territoyr in Daraa by stApexf.

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Today, insurgents from the Dawn of Islam Brigade captured several key checkpoints across a town named Dael (often written Da'el) in Daraa Province. There are reports that the fighters have control of the entire town.

Dael's fall is significant. It may be the defining example of how the international effort to give military assistance to the rebels, led by Saudi Arabia and the US, is rapidly changing the face of the war.

Control of Daraa Province gives the rebels access to Syria's border with Jordan, from where outside forces are providing military asssistance.

Dael is strategically located for that obejctive. Its capture would both help insulate rebel territory from attack, and serve as a base from which to attack the provincial capital, Daraa.

For these reasons, Dael may have been specifically targeted by what may be the most important insurgent organization in southern Syria, one with ties to rebel commander Salim Idriss.

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Iran Live Coverage: "America is Trying to Eliminate Islam from Iran"

See also Iran Special: Sanctions, "Analysis", and the Never-Ending Circle of Propaganda --- From NIAC to Neo-Cons
Thursday's Iran Live Coverage: Another Challenge to Ahmadinejad

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2041 GMT:Sanctions Watch. Turkey exported almost $120 million worth of gold to Iran in February.

The figure suggests the two countries' trade of gold for natural gas has resumed despite tighter US sanctions, though at levels below last year's surge.

Turkey sold no gold to Iran in January, as banks and dealers eyed the implementation of US restrictions on 6 February that tightened control over transfer of precious metals to the Islamic Republic.

TA six-month waiver exempting Turkey from US sanctions, because of its reduction of imports of Iranian oil and gas, is due to expire in July. Ankara, Tehran's biggest natural gas customer, has been paying for energy imports with Turkish lira, because sanctions prevent it from paying in dollars or euros.

Turkey sold $117.9 million worth of gold to Iran last month, while exports to the UAE, which has served in the past as a transit route to Tehran, rose to $402.3 million from $371 million in January.

Turkey's monthly gold sales to Iran peaked last July at $1.8 billion.

2011 GMT:Economy Watch. Mohammad Reza Bahonar --- Deputy Speaker of Parliament and Presidential candidate --- has said that only 20-30% of Iran's economic problems are because of sanctions. The rest, he said, are due to mismanagement.

Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has made a similar criticism of the Ahmadinejad Government.

Bahonar, citing "serious spikes in prices", sepcifically blamed President Ahmadinejad's subsidy cuts plans and the manner in which housing projects were implemented. He said many factories had closed or were in danger of doing --- thus the Supreme Leader's declaration of a "Year of National Production” had not been fulfilled.

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Syria Live Coverage: Hesitating on Weapons to Insurgents?

1314 GMT: American Arrested for Fighting Alongside Al Nusra Eric Harroun, a 30 year old former American soldier, has been arrested in Washington DC. Harroun has been fighting in Syria alongside the Syrian Islamic group Jabhat al Nusra. He is being charged for using a rocket propelled grenade outside of the service of the US military:

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Iraq (and Beyond) Live Coverage: At Least 17 Killed in Mosque Bombings

See also Syria Live Coverage: Hesitating on Weapons to Insurgents?
Thursday's Saudi Arabia (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Prosecutor Demands "Death by Crucifixion" for Dissident Cleric

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2055 GMT: Bahrain. Police used tear gas and sound bombs to disperse hundreds of protesters who demonstrated in the capital Manama against the regime.

The marchers chanted, "The people want the fall of the regime" and "Down with [King] Hamad."

Several protesters were arrested, witnesses said.

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Iran Special: Sanctions, "Analysis", and the Never-Ending Circle of Propaganda --- From NIAC to Neo-Cons

Most of what passes in the US press and circles of influence as "analysis" of Iran is actually political posturing, trying to put forward self-interested opinion as the Truth.

This is a story of how that "analysis", caught up in a false "either-or" of Iran --- it is either menacing, or it is oppressed by the "West"; it is either pursuing a Bomb, or it has no such intention; there will be regime change or a dominant regime which will never be changed --- leads us,  again and again, to political dead-ends.

This is the story of the 32-page report that Trita Parsi and Reza Marashi of the National Iranian American Council, working with economist Bijan Khajehpour, put out this week, "Never Give Up, Never Give In".

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