Syria Live Coverage: Insurgents Make Key Advance in South

1803 GMT: What's So Important About a Croatian Rocket Launcher? James Miller provides a snap analysis:

Today we posted evidence that a 12-tube 8.5-13km range Croatian rocket launcher has made it to the battlefields of Syria.

See also Syria Exclusive: New Arms for Insurgents --- The Case of the Croatian Multiple Rocket Launcher

Why does this matter?

There are three different levels of significance. The first is the military effectiveness of the weapon. The second level concerns what the weapon's presence says about the state of the international effort to arm the rebels. The third is a question about the rule of unintended consequences. We'll be treating these separately in a longer analysis, especially the last two, but this deserves some treatment now.

First, militarily this weapon is fairly significant. The rebels are constantly being hit by long range artillery and multiple launch rockets, so this helps level that playing field. Of course, even if all of the RAK-12s were given to the Syrian rebels, this would not match the regime's firepower. However, in our updates to our separate feature we've posted video that already shows this launcher targeting the Damascus International Airport. These weapons are extremely effective at attacking isolated regime bases over short, medium, and long range distances. This weapon could provide much needed help in cracking Assad's most formidable defenses, though it's still hard to see how a few of these weapons will make a significant difference. Also, the rebels have some similar weapons that they have captured from the regime, so the presence of a few rocket launchers is not going to dramatically change the situation.

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