Iran Special Analysis: After 25 Bahman's Success, The Challenges for the Green Movement (Tehrani)

Faced with the heavy-handed response by the authorities, the question that lies ahead for the both Mousavi and Karroubi is pressing: Should they finally give up all pretence of compromise and resolution of conflict within the boundaries of the Islamic Republic and their reluctance to engage in a full-frontal confrontation with all elements of the regime, Khamenei included? Should they start to question the authority and wisdom of the Supreme Leader directly, as strongly requested by the protestors in the streets, or should they keep pressing with strategies which have been unsuccessful so far?

The rallies of 25 Bahman certainly blew the "breath of life" --- to borrow Karroubi's phrase --- into a stagnant Green movement, but it also brought to the fore compelling questions which need carefully-crafted answers.

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Iran in Cartoons: A Green Valentine for Ahmadinejad & The Theft of A Martyr

Cartoons following up the marches of 25 Bahman on Monday:

MAYA NAYESTANI: "THE THEFT OF A MARTYR" (ON REGIME EFFORTS TO CLAIM SLAIN PROTESTER SANEE ZHALEH AS A SUPPORTER)

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Iran Video: A 1st-Hand View of the Marches of 25 Bahman

"Sara", a participant in Monday's rallies, speaks to CNN about the day. Note, amongst her effective account of events, her reference to Sanee Zhaleh, who was killed by a gunshot. He was not, as the Iranian regime is claiming, one of its supporters; instead, he was marching when he was slain.

The Latest from Iran (16 February): The Regime Hits Back

2145 GMT: Punishing the 25 Bahman Error. Opposition websites are reporting that two managers of the conservative Aftab News have been arrested over an incident on Monday.

Aftab briefly reported that a permit had been granted for the opposition rally. The article was quickly pulled and the site taken off-line.

Aftab also reported that Turkish President Abdullah Gul, visiting Iran, had asked to join the march.

2135 GMT: Rafsanjani Chooses a Side? The Assembly of Experts, chaired by Hashemi Rafsanjani, has exalted last Friday's regime celebration of the Islamic Revolution and denounced Monday's opposition rallies as a "counter-revolutionary" movement of heretics supported by the US and Israel.

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Bahrain (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Another Tahrir Square?

2055 GMT: EA sources report that Internet service in Bahrain has slowed to a crawl, making it difficult even to send e-mails.

2015 GMT: Reuters report three people were killed and about 30 wounded in Kut in southern Iraq as about 2000 protesters demanding better basic services fought with police and set government buildings on fire.

2010 GMT: Al Jazeera English reports that hundreds of protesters "torched" Libyan police outposts in the eastern city of Al-Bayda (see video at 1745 GMT), while chanting: "People want the end of the regime."

In the southern city of Zentan, 120 km (75 miles) south of Tripoli, hundreds of people marched through the streets and set fire to security headquarters and a police station, then set up tents in the heart of the town

Police reportedly fired tear gas and violently dispersed protesters, arresting 20, in Benghazi. Families of those arrested are reportedly planning to gather outside the city's security directorate to demand their release.

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Bahrain in Pictures: Today's Protest and Clashes

This morning's procession alongside the coffin of a demonstrator killed on Monday, from the gathering to the use of tear gas by police to the continuation of the march (see LiveBlog updates).

Latest Pictures --- Thousands Gather at Pearl Roundabout:

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Egypt (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Protest Here, Protest There

2100 GMT: The Lede at The New York Times has further information on the occupation of Pearl Roundabout in Bahrain, including a picture of the popcorn machine brought in amongst the tents.

Video earlier today from the Roundabout:

2055 GMT: Al Masry Al Youm summarises the continuing protests across Egypt over working conditions, including university workers, police, sugar cane workers, and fishermen.

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Iran Analysis: Guess Who's Back? Back Again?

The regime had been worried enough in the week before 25 Bahman that it had embarked on another wave of detentions, seizing dozens of activists and journalists. It had raised the barriers on Internet sites, possibly slowing the network down; yesterday its operatives took down a number of key opposition webpages, including Mehdi Karroubi's Saham News. It had tried again to blind mainstream media by shutting away or keeping out its reporters. It put Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi under an undeclared house arrest, shoving Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard back into her residential prison when she tried to join the demonstrations.

But in the end --- as each accumulating video testified --- the Supreme Leader and the Ahmadinejad Government had failed.

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Iran Feature: Facebook and A Resurgent Opposition? (Habibinia)

Last Thursday evening, while many Iranians were following the news of the revolutionary reforms in Egypt and the dethroning of another dictator in the Middle East, security forces in Iran were breaking into the residence of students, political activists, and even family members of Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi, to arrest them and blunt the call for demonstrations against the regime on Valentine's Day.

The revolutionary incidents in Tunisia and Egypt have astounded and stimulated the Iranians, who returned to their homes after a nine-month challenge against the regime just before the last Valentine's Day. Many asked themselves and others during the past weeks: "Why have Tunisians and Egyptians made it, but we did not?"

So many Iranians, imitating the Egyptian and Tunisians, have opened a Facebook page in order to spark a new street demonstration.

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The Latest from Iran (15 February): Watching a Revival

2110 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Activist Ali Nabavi, whose wife Atefeh is already imprisoned, has been arrested.

2105 GMT: Deaths on 25 Bahman. Iranian officials are naming a second fatality in Monday's protests, 22-year-old Mohamad Mokhtari, 22, claiming he was shot by the banned Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO)

This morning, the Government also said Sanee Zhaleh, 26, had been killed by the MKO. That claim has also come under pressure with a photograph linking Zhaleh to the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, an opponent of the regime (see 1650 GMT).

2034 GMT: Prediction Come True. We said in our analysis this morning (see separate entry) that the regime would respond to Monday's marches by ramping up the intimidation and arrests.

And so it is already coming to pass. Tahavole Sabz reports a group of pro-Government men gathered in front of Mehdi Karroubi's residence this afternoon, chanting slogans against him.

The crowd assembled after a call by a website linked to the Government for a rally against Mir at Ark Square in front of the Tehran Prosecutor's office against Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi, whose effigy was hung. After a few hours, the group moved towards Karroubi's residence.

Karroubi is under effective house arrest, prevented by security forces from leaving his home.

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