The Latest from Iran (14 February): Watching for Protests

See also Iran Feature: Two Sisters Try to Reach Their Country with Pop Music
The Latest from Iran (13 February): The Economic Squeeze

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"Strong and Steadfast"2115 GMT: All the President's Men. The trial of Abbas Ghaffari and Mehdi Mohagheghi, both on the President's staff and accused of being in the "deviant current", has begun.

Ghaffari, the Friday Prayer leader for Ahmadinejad's office, and Mohagheghi was arrested last year and charged with "sorcery", "exorcism", and "blasphemy".

2025 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Minister of Science and Higher Education Kamran Daneshjoo has made an implicit threat against former President Hashemi Rafsanjani in the battle for control of Islamic Azad University.

Daneshjoo said that the Supreme Cultural Council of the Revolution will decide on several conditions that Rafsanjani has set over the University, adding that a speedy decision is necessary.

One of the clashes is over Rafsanjani's refusal to sign the mandate naming Daneshjoo's brother Farhad, appointed by President Ahmadinejad, as head of the University.

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The Latest from Iran (2 February): Will There Be Protests on 25 Bahman?

See also Iran Caption Competition: What Would a 6-Foot (Cardboard) Ayatollah Khomeini Say?
The Latest from Iran (1 February): Is the Supreme Leader Fretting About Syria?

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2130 GMT: Foreign Affairs (Syrian Front). Yet another sign of Tehran's concern at developments in Damascus (see 1435 GMT)....

Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said Iran is “astonished and confused” by the failure of the Arab League mission in Syria, blaming a lack of willingness on the part of Arab states for the breakdown.

“The observers went to Syria, where they worked for over a month, presented a balanced report, and they were supposed to continue their mission," Salehi said. “We are astonished and confused. We do not understand why the Arab League halted the work of observers who agreed to continue with their mission and chose to go to the Security Council instead."

Salehi indicated Tehran's reliance on Beijing and Moscow, saying he believes both will continue to support both Iran and Syria in the face of Western pressure. He tried to minimise any differences with Ankara: "Regarding Syria, our Turkish brothers have their own opinions. They want the reforms to happen quickly, not slowly."

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Iran Special: The Regime Debates "Arrest Mousavi and Karroubi?"

Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi on State TV on Thursday night

An informed source and former Iranian government official [said]...that right after the February 14 protests, Heydar Moslehi, Iran's intelligence minister, attended a meeting with the Supreme Leader in which he asked for permission to arrest Karroubi and Mousavi. At the meeting, however, Khamenei criticized the Ministry of Information [Intelligence] for its reports, asking why its analysis of popular participation in the gatherings had been so wrong.

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Iran Feature: My Funny Valentine's Day...at a Protest (Persian Umpire)

Although they do occupy a portion of your imagination in the days before a rally, death, being beaten or getting arrested, are not the most frightening thoughts before going to a demonstration. The worst thought, always, without exception, is whether people are going to show.

On 25 Bahman, we –-- a group of eight –-- took off toward Enghelab Square at around two o’clock in the afternoon. I kept telling everyone that it was too early for leaving; that the rally was at three o’clock and that Iranians are always fashionably late. Nevertheless, the others were too anxious to sit still and so we left.

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The Latest from Iran (21 February): The Contest Continues

2155 GMT: The 1 Esfand Casualty. Shiraz University students have announced a week of mourning for Hamed Nourmohammadi, who was allegedly thrown off a bridge by security forces during Sunday's protests.

2135 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Singer and composer Afshin Taheri was detained on Tuesday and is in an unknown location.

2125 GMT: 1 Esfand. Setareh Sabety offers an overview and crisp analysis of the significance of Sunday's opposition marches:

1st Esfand (Feb.20) was big enough to show that 25th Bahman (Feb.14) was not a single outburst inspired by the events in Tunis and Egypt but rather the revival of an opposition movement that continues to show signs of resilience. Iranians are pragmatists and unlike their Arab neighbors have recent experience with revolution. They will not risk life and limb unless they are sure that they are on the winning side. 1st Esfand was a step in the winning direction for the opposition in Iran.

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The Latest from Iran (20 February): So What Happens on 1 Esfand?

2225 GMT: More Political Prisoners. Tehran University School of Science student Sohrab Jafari and law student Habib Farahzadi were arrested today.

2135 GMT: More 1 Esfands. In an interview with Radio Farda, Mehdi Karroubi's advisor Mojtaba Vahedi gets to the point: he is impressed with the turnout today and there will be more protests until demands are met.

Vahedi adds that mounting casualties will only have the same effect as 1979, building up a rally of mourning.

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Iran Analysis: Walking the Same Green Tightrope

The regime knows that it must contain Mousavi and Karroubi. Karroubi and Mousavi know that they have to increase pressure on the regime. The people know that they must march. Yesterday's call for more protests finally hint that neither Mousavi or Karroubi are in a mood to compromise; the rhetoric to prosecute or execute the reformist leaders indicate that the regime is unwilling to negotiate.

Someone is going to fall off this tightrope. Someone is going to concede ground, or charge ahead further than they have ever gone. If this happens, expect widespread unrest and chaos in the streets, because this will be the minute the opposition moves from dissent to rebellion.

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Iran Analysis: The Opposition Responds to The Regime's Hatred Rally

The call for the marches of 1 Esfand may not bring public success. Indeed, the regime's trump card --- even if it cannot repress the Green movement out of existence --- is that it can make coverage of the opposition marches so difficult that an approximate measurement of what has occurred is difficult. In particular, the reaction of the Iranian population, beyond those dedicated to either a pro-regime or anti-regime path, is hard to guage. And, as Mr Tehrani evaluated this week, the opposition faces difficult questions over its methods and aim beydon the short-term.

 However, for the first time since February 2010, the regime does not have the public arena all to itself. That could be a small but significant shift in the political contest. 

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Iran Analysis: Guess Who's Back? Back Again?

The regime had been worried enough in the week before 25 Bahman that it had embarked on another wave of detentions, seizing dozens of activists and journalists. It had raised the barriers on Internet sites, possibly slowing the network down; yesterday its operatives took down a number of key opposition webpages, including Mehdi Karroubi's Saham News. It had tried again to blind mainstream media by shutting away or keeping out its reporters. It put Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi under an undeclared house arrest, shoving Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard back into her residential prison when she tried to join the demonstrations.

But in the end --- as each accumulating video testified --- the Supreme Leader and the Ahmadinejad Government had failed.

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Iran Feature: Facebook and A Resurgent Opposition? (Habibinia)

Last Thursday evening, while many Iranians were following the news of the revolutionary reforms in Egypt and the dethroning of another dictator in the Middle East, security forces in Iran were breaking into the residence of students, political activists, and even family members of Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi, to arrest them and blunt the call for demonstrations against the regime on Valentine's Day.

The revolutionary incidents in Tunisia and Egypt have astounded and stimulated the Iranians, who returned to their homes after a nine-month challenge against the regime just before the last Valentine's Day. Many asked themselves and others during the past weeks: "Why have Tunisians and Egyptians made it, but we did not?"

So many Iranians, imitating the Egyptian and Tunisians, have opened a Facebook page in order to spark a new street demonstration.

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