The Latest from Iran (31 December): Selling the President's Car, Seizing the President's Election

1200 GMT: Your Tehran Friday Prayer Summary. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami's message from the pulpit today....

1. We defeated the "sedition" with our march on 30 December last year.

2. Subsidy cuts are excellent.

3. Help Pakistan's flood victims. (And, Pakistan, don't send us your terrorists.)

4. The ban on the hijab in Azerbaijan is very, very bad.

1140 GMT: Rafsanjani Sedition Watch. On the surface, it was just another ritual denunciation of the evil British. Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi told an audience in southern Tehran on Thursday, "One of the intelligence services that sought to overthrow the Islamic Republic since the advent of the Revolution, was British....[It] acted quite diligently with precise knowledge of our culture to influence individuals, and they learned that one of the ways to harm people was through their relatives.”

Go a bit farther, however, and you'll see that Moslehi had a target closer to home....

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Tunisia Analysis: The Rise of an Economic and Political Crisis (Sadiki)

Photo: Agence France PresseLike many developing states, Tunisia jumped onto the "Washington consensus" bandwagon, which led to fiscal, political and social adjustments.

This led to a decrease in subsidies, privatisation, poor convertibility of the dinar, vast land sales with foreign ownership of real estate, tourist resort leasing, nouveaux riches consumption patterns, big business commissions, business monopolies and corruption.

Inevitably, the clouds gathering over the skies of Tunisia’s winter of discontent have started  the tell-tale signs of a deluge of ills symptomatic of a quasi-"banana republic".

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Iran Video and Transcript: Revisiting The Opposition Case for an Illegitimate Election (21 June 2009)

During the Presidential campaign and election of 12 June 2009, Ali Akbar Mohtashamipour was the head of the Committee to Protect the Vote. On 21 June, two days after the Supreme Leader had reaffirmed at Friday Prayers that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won the election, Mohtashamipour made a lengthy public statement in which he set out the case for a flawed ballot and set the conditions for a proper review.

Mohtashamipour's basic demand --- for an independent committee to enquire into the vote, as the Guardian Council, the Islamic Republic's body overseeing political matters, had been compromised by support of its members for President Ahmadinejad --- was quickly rejected. The Council conducted a limited recount of ballots and issued a report in July declaring that there was no irregularities in the election.

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Israel-Turkey: Another Mini-Conflict

On Thursday evening, the state-owned Turkish Radio-Television Cooperation said its reporters were treated in an ill-mannered way during their three-day-visit to Israel. The TRT reporters had been invited to Israel by the Yilmazlar group, which has business links with West Jerusalem. However, the news agency said that its reporters were held up for hours  in security checks. Israeli authorities confiscated a camera; when TRT objected, the officials said the camera will be held temporarily and returned later. 

TRT said it has complained to the Israeli Embassy in Ankara. There has been no response so far from either Turkish or Israeli politicans. 

Israel Snapshot: A Happy (Secure) New Year?

The Israeli international security sevice Shin Bet, in its annual report , says 2010 witnessed the lowest number of terror attacks and victims in Israel in a decade.

In 2010, nine civilians and soldiers were killed in 798 terror-related incidents in Israel and the territories, compared with 15 deaths in 1,354 incidents in 2009. The height of violence came in 2002, when 452 Israelis were killed..

Only 150 rockets were fired from the Hamas-ruled Gaza territory, versus 569 in 2009. The oft-made assertion by the Israeli Government is that this indicates "success" in the 2008/2009 war in Gaza.

Yet, amidst these markers of reduced violence, the political discourse from Israeli is still one of insecurity. There is the continuing clash with Hamas and the deadlocked peace process with the Palestinian Authority. There are repeated declarations that Hamas is stockpiling arms, including "quality" weapons smuggled into Gaza from Egypt.

And there is always the omnipotent, "existential threat" of Iran, with its ever-imminent Bomb and its label of primary sponsor of Hezbollah and Hamas.

Happy New Year?

Iran Analysis: Tehran's Win-Win with the Nuclear Obsession

At this point, Iran doesn’t even need to have a real nuclear program. All it needs is a few underground bunkers with people moving in and out of them, heating uranium ore and drinking tea. They are already accomplishing most of their goals by stoking fear in the hearts of reasonable people who should be able to see through the façade of the regime.

For Tehran, this is going to be a win-win situation. If the West decides not to attack and Iran develops the weapons, it will have security against future assaults. If the West does launch an operation, expect thousands of innocent dissident Iranians to be slaughtered for supposedly helping the US, the UK, and Israel.

For the umpteenth time, the West needs to respond to the regime by helping the opposition movement in Iran. Otherwise, the talk about how Iran’s nukes will destroy us all is assisting a destruction of a different kind: the destruction of hope for a change that will bring rights and justice.

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Iran Pictures: The Gathering for "God's Day"

Pictures from "God's Day", marking the 1st anniversary of pro-regime marches, in Tehran, via Mehr and Khabar Online:

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Pakistan Snapshot: "Hundreds" of Detainees Disappearing (Schmitt)

The Obama administration is expressing alarm over reports that thousands of political separatists and captured Taliban insurgents have disappeared into the hands of Pakistan’s police and security forces, and that some may have been tortured or killed.

The issue came up in a State Department report to Congress last month that urged Pakistan to address this and other human rights abuses. It threatens to become the latest source of friction in the often tense relationship between the wartime allies.

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Israel Opinion: It's Over for Benjamin Netanyahu (Benn)

Benjamin Netanyahu has in effect concluded his term as prime minister. It's all downhill until the next elections, without any achievements and without an agenda, passing the time buying political calm and deflecting diplomatic pressure. Instead of initiating and leading, Netanyahu will engage in fruitless holding actions until he falls from power.

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Belarus Updates: The Latest Detentions

1435 GMT: Reports indicated five Presidential candidates --- Andrei Sannikov, Vladimir Neklyaev, Nikolai Statkevich, Vitaly Rymashevsky, and Alexei Mikhalevich have been charged with organizing activities which led to "riots" on Election Day on 19 December.

Under the order, the five men can be detained for two months while investigations continue.

The Guardian of London picks up on the story, reporting "at least four" candidates charged --- it does not list Mikhalevich.

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