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Tuesday
Dec072010

Iran Analysis: Protests and Options --- What Now for the Greens and the Government?

Today’s protest showed both the limited capacity of the Greens to muster huge number of protesters because of Government repression, but at the same time it demonstrated how weak the government has become in dealing with its foes.

With options running out on both sides, the real question is: who is going to give in first and cross the point of no return on its nuclear option?

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Tuesday
Dec072010

Egypt Shocker: "Israel Equipping Sharks with GPS for Attacks"

Speaking on the public TV program "Egypt Today" yesterday, a specialist introduced as "Captain Mustafa Ismail, a famous diver in Sharm El Sheikh," said that the sharks involved in the attack are ocean sharks and do not live in Egypt's waters.

When asked by the anchor how the shark entered Sharm El Sheikh waters, he burst out, "no, it's who let them in?"

Urged to elaborate, Ismail said that he recently got a call from an Israeli diver in Eilat telling him that they captured a small shark with a GPS planted in its back, implying that the sharks were monitored to attack in Egypt's waters only.  

"Why would these sharks travel 4000 km and not have any accidents until they entered Sinai waters?" asked Ismail.

Earlier today, General Abdel-Fadeel Shosha, the governor of South Sinai, backed Ismail's theory. In a phone call to the TV program, he said that it is possible that Israeli intelligence, Mossad, is behind the incidents and that they are doing it to undermine the Egyptian tourism industry. He added that Egypt needs time to investigate the theory.

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Tuesday
Dec072010

Iran Latest Video: The 16 Azar Protests

Homy Lafayette's blog offers valuable translation and interpretation of several of these videos:

Buali-Sina University in Hamedan, singing "Yar Dabestani" (My Classmate):

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Tuesday
Dec072010

Wikileaks and Iran: The Regime's Ninja Assassins?

And in the category of "Strange...But True?" from the WikiLeaks documents....

In September 2009, an Iranian political source --- who also happens to be trained in martial arts --- tells the US Embassy in Azerbaijan that the regime is pressuring martial arts clubs, despite suspicions that they could be assisting opposition groups, to provide instruction for the Ministry of Intelligence and the Revolutionary Guards.

The outcome supposedly went beyond training: the source maintains that one of his acquaintances killed at least six intellectuals and young "pro-democracy activists" before he himself was eliminated.

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Tuesday
Dec072010

The Latest from Iran (7 December): 16 Azar

2115 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Masoud Lavasani has been summoned to Evin Prison to serve his 4 1/2-year prison sentence.

Lavasani was arrested on 26 July 2009 at his home.

Ahmad Reza Khadem of the National Front has been sentenced to 40 months in prison.

Muhammad Nawaz, a follower of the detained Ayatollah Boroujerdi, has been detained.

2043 GMT: Parliament v. President. I know 16 Azar has been dramatic, but don't forget the ongoing story of the challenge to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

MP Darioush Ghanbari says that several reformists have signed the letter, organised by principlists opposing the President, to summon Ahmadinejad to the Majlis for questioning.

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Tuesday
Dec072010

Iran Snap Analysis: Resistance and National Students' Day

Already I am having to revise my Monday assessment that the protests for 16 Azar will mainly be through written statements. Visible demonstrations may occur.

Any show of resistance is likely to be scattered, "flash mob" protests. And do not underestimate the efforts of the Government and security forces to quell even these limited displays.

Still, it would be resistance that counters the narrative of a Government which is now secure after 18 months of post-election conflict. And then the question is how much that resistance brings other "fire from under the ashes".

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Tuesday
Dec072010

Turkey-Israel Latest: Firefighting Leads to a High-Level Meeting 

Last weekend,  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan by phone for the planes that Ankara sent to help fight fires in northern Israel.

Now the follow-up: officials from both countries met in Geneva on Sunday.

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Monday
Dec062010

Palestine Snap Analysis: As Latin Americans Give Recognition, Where Are Washington's "Vital Security Interests"?

On Monday, Argentine and Uruguay followed Brazil's recognition of the state of Palestine based on 1967 borders.  Argentine Foreign Minister Hector Timerman read the letter sent by President Cristina Kirchner wrote to Palestinian Authority leader Mahmud Abbas: "The Argentine government recognizes Palestine as a free and independent state within the borders defined in 1967." 

Uruguayan deputy foreign minister Roberto Conde said, "Uruguay will surely follow the same path as Argentina in 2011. We are working towards opening a diplomatic representation in Palestine, most likely in Ramallah."

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Monday
Dec062010

Iran Video: Tonight's Allahu Akbar (God is Great) Rooftop Chants in Tehran

Monday
Dec062010

Iran Video Special: Tehran University Protests on the Eve of 16 Azar

Claimed footage of protests at Tehran University this afternoon, a day before 16 Azar (National Students Day):

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