WikiLeaks Document & EA Analysis: US Diplomats on Green Movement & Iran's Politics "From Crisis to Stalemate"

Today we post Part 2 of the analysis of the situation in Iran by the US Consulate in Dubai in January 2010. (The first cable was published on EA on Friday.)

It is a must-read document, but it is still an incomplete assessment. The challenge to the regime has never been one of an all-or-nothing contest between Government and Green Movement. The Consulate's attempted analogies with Iran 1978/1979 and Poland in the 1980s are distracting, rather than illuminating.

Instead the current possibilities of change have come through the dynamic between the space for resistance opened up by opposition movements and the space exploited by those manoeuvring within the Iranian system.

That is still true today.

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Iran Document: Detained Activist Bahareh Hedayat's Letter for National Students Day

These perpetual, sad and cold days and nights will surely end forever someday so that the hopeful promise of life surrounds us all over. There is no doubt in my mind that in our bright future, we will breathe in a free country while celebrating our liberty together. Reaching for the blue skies, we will greet the sunlight once again in our universities and all over this land that will be free, free, and free at last. Since that day is near, let us reject any doubts we may have. We must believe in this and stand up like before, informed and hopeful.

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The Latest from Iran (5 December): Hope and Resistance

2105 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Isa Saharkhiz has reportedly undergone an operation for international bleeding in Rajai Shahr Prison's infirmary.

Leyla Tavassoli has been transferred to Evin Prison to begin a two-year prison sentence.

Tavassoli is the daughter of Mohammad Tavassoli, a senior member of the Freedom Movement of Iran.

2058 GMT: Labour Front. Workers of Kashan spinning factory have gathered in front of the governor's office to protest over being paid half-wages for 27 months.

2055 GMT: All-is-Well Alert. The Deputy Minister of Trade has said that bread prices will rise "a bit" after subsidy cuts but added that quality will rise as well.

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Egypt Elections Video: Saturday's Protest Against the Ruling Party's Vote-Rigging

We will be keeping an eye on the second round of Egypt's disputed elections for the Parliament.

On Saturday, activists held a protest in front of Cairo's Press Syndicate, accusing the ruling National Democratic Party of rigging the votes during Sunday's first round.

Turkey Special: FM Davutoglu Sets Out Ankara's Foreign Policy in the "Normalisation of History"

Last week, Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu was in the US for discussions with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Davutoglu also delivered a speech at Georgetown University about Ankara's "zero problem with neighbours" strategy.

In regional politics, within the contexts of the Middle East, Asia, Russia, the European Union, and the fight against terror, Washington needs Turks as much as Ankara needs Washington. This, Davutoglu underlined, is the significance of the "model partnership" set out by President Obama in his address to the Turkish Parliament in April 2009.

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Palestine Analysis: Can US Make the Most of Moves by Abbas and Hamas?

On Saturday, the leader of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke by phone. Abbas expressed his condolences over the deadly fire in Israel, and Netanyahu expressed his thanks for the help of Palestinian civil defence members. 

Beyond that conciliatory conversation, there were significant political manoeuvres.

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Wikileaks Iran Special: US Diplomats Assess Green Movement & Politics "From Crisis to Stalemate"

We have now added a special analysis to our posting of Part 2 of the US Consulate in Dubai's analysis in January 2010 of the Green Movement and Iran's political situation. The revised post is at the top of the homepage.

North Korea Weekend Website Special: "Kim Jong-Il Looks at Things"

This is really self-explanatory: an entire website devoted to North Korean Dear Leader Kim Jong-Il looking at things.

A few examples....

Looking at Pigs

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Iran Snapshot: Will Rafsanjani Use Political Prisoners to Make a New Move?

>A group of 16 Iranian political prisoners, including prominent reformist politicians Mohsen Aminzadeh and Mostafa Tajzadeh and journalists Bahman Ahmadi Amoui and Mohammad Nourizad have written an open letter to former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, describing their continued incarceration “in violation of the law” and in the “framework of settling political accounts”.

Is this the prelude to a renewed Rafsanjani initiative?

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The Latest from Iran (4 December): Behind the Postures

2050 GMT: Signs for a Deal? Signals from both Iran and the US that talks in next Monday and Tuesday on Tehran's nuclear programme can move toward a resolution.

The US media are picking up on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's implicit acknowledgement on Friday that Iran has a right to enrich uranium:

The position of the international community is clear. You have the right to a peaceful nuclear program, but with that right comes a reasonable responsibility, that you follow the treaty you signed and fully address the international community’s concerns about your nuclear activity. We urge you to make that choice … we urge you to restore the confidence of the international community and live up to your international obligations.

(And Iranian media and officials, despite the apparent snub to Clinton by Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki only a few seats away, have also taken note. Mottaki said today, “This is a step forward that even the United States [officials] admit to Iran's right to acquire nuclear technology and fuel cycle in their every speech.")

Equally notable, however, is the statement of President Ahmadinejad today. After a week filled with denunciations of the "West", the US, and the UN, Ahmadinejad said:

We are ready to cooperate on a wide range of issues including economic, nuclear, international security and international political issues and the resolution of global problems. This is a unique opportunity...that we hope Western leaders will not waste.

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