The Latest from Iran (3 December): A Phantom Bombing

2020 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch (Power Politics Edition). Keep your eyes on this story....

A group of 16 Iranian political prisoners, including prominent reformist politicians Mohsen Aminzadeh and Mostafa Tajzadeh and journalists Bahman Ahmadi Amoui and Mohammad Nourizad have written an open letter to former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, describing their continued incarceration “in violation of the law” and in the “framework of settling political accounts”.

Addressing Rafsanjani in his role as head of the Expediency Council, the detainees said the treatment of political activists in the Islamic Republic today “bears no sign of the principles of the Revolution and its constitution". They maintain that their charges are fabricated and the “heavy sentences and restrictions that they have been handed are part of a political and security plan by the establishment to completely erase the political opposition”.

The prisoners compared the current situation to the political detentions before the 1979 Revolution, with officials forcing prisoners to give false confessions and then issuing sentences based on them: “The issued sentences in view of level and kind of punishment seem to indicate that they have been set by security officials based on their own ideas and personal preference, and relayed to the judges.”

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Wikileaks Irony: "Authoritarian Governments" Condemned as Site Killed

UPDATE 1120 GMT: The WikiLeaks documents are now available at http://213.251.145.96/cablegate.html. 

In Pakistan, the High Court has rejected a petition seeking a ban on the WikiLeaks website.

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Palestine Analysis: Why Palestinian Divisions Overshadow the Peace Process

Trapped between the proverbial rock and a hard place, the Palestinian negotiating team’s most viable strategy would be to avoid peace negotiations with Israel in the short-term and immediately begin negotiating the devastating divisions that dominate Palestinian society. In recent times, it has been foreign mediators, such as Turkey, Libya, Qatar, Yemen, Egypt, and several others, and not the PLO who have attempted to arbitrate the divisions within Palestinian society. In the current climate, in which a unified Palestinian polity appears as the most important condition for restarting effective peace negotiations, the PLO would be well advised to reverse this trend, to take a more pronounced and aggressive role in mediating these internal conflicts, and to focus its attention on achieving the difficult, yet auspicious goal of a unified Palestinian constituency.

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Iran and US Hikers Video: Sarah Shourd's Song for Shane Bauer and Josh Fattal

In July 2009, three US hikers were detained along the Iran-Iraq border. Seven weeks ago, Sarah Shourd was released on a financial "guarantee" that she would return for trial, but Shourd's fiance Shane Bauer and Josh Fattal are still held, their trial repeatedly postponed (it is now scheduled for 6 February).

This is Shourd's song for her fellow detainees.

LYRICS

We walked across hard land
Into a human trap
They took us for one long ride
You're now in Iran, Iran

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Wikileaks: Today's Guide to EA's Coverage

Analysis

Aluf Benn says "The Fiasco Doesn't Embarrass Israel One Bit".

Features and Documents

1. US officials have "No Confidence in Pakistani Leader Zardari, No Alternative to Afghan Leader Karzai".

2. A year before the 2008 Russian-Georgian war, the US Embassy in Tbilisi documents "The Russian Campaign Against Georgia".

3. In 2009, the US Embassy in Rome intervenes in Italian politics: "Pushing Back Against Silvio Berlusconi, 'The Mouthpiece of Vladimir Putin'."

Wikileaks Special: Pushing Back Against Italy's Berlusconi "The Mouthpiece of Putin"

To tackle the problem [of Berlusconi's affection for Putin] head-on, Post [the Embassy] has deployed a robust diplomatic and public affairs strategy targeting key figures inside and outside government. Our aim is two-fold: educate our interlocutors more profoundly on Russian activities and thus the context for U.S. policy, as well as build a counter-weight of dissenting opinion on Russia policy, especially within Berlusconi's political party.

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Wikileaks Document: The Russian Campaign Against Georgia

Russia's goal is not Abkhazia or South Ossetia, but all of Georgia. While the Russians typically make some efforts to reduce their fingerprints on actions -- making it hard to say with 100% certainty that they are responsible for many of them -- the cumulative weight of the evidence of the last few years suggests that the Russians are aggressively playing a high-stakes, covert game, and they consider few if any holds barred.

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Egypt Latest: "Elections Marred by Rigging & Violence"

UPDATE 1450 GMT: Jack Shenker in The Guardian of London: "[This election] was about sending a message that – whichever elements from within the existing autocracy triumph in the internecine battles to come – the transition from one pharaoh to another will take place wholly within that autocracy, with all other voices excluded."

UPDATE 1445 GMT: The Wafd Party has officially pulled out of the second round of voting.

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The Latest from Iran (2 December): Choking

1855 GMT: Khatami Speaks. Former Iranian president Mohammad Khatami has urged authorities to let the Islamic Republic pass through “threats and restrictions” into an atmosphere of “safety and freedom".

Speaking to families of political prisoners on Tuesday, Khatami emphasized that the constitution "should be the basis of everyone’s actions especially the government". He asked authorities to ensure free and healthy elections and inclusive policies.

1840 GMT: The Budget Battle. Reformist MP Nasrollah Torabi has declared that the remarks of Ayatollah Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, on a possible compromise over the 5th Budget Plan have no legal binding.

1816 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Prominent historian Abdollah Shahbazi, a supporter of Mir Hossein Mousavi, has been arrested in Shiraz.

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US-Iran Analysis: Squeezing Tehran into an Agreement?

The latest statements from US officials are all on the winding path of US strategy from the start of the Obama Administration to now: hold out the prospect of reconciliation through talks by piling on economic pressure: "Iran has the possibility to be (in the international community). [We] hope it will take the chance because if not it will be squeezed more."

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