Egypt Latest: The Ruling Party Wipes Out the Opposition

For earlier news, see the Sunday-Monday and Tuesday updates:

UPDATE 1825 GMT: Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif gives the reassuring statement of the day: the fact that all ministers won their seats proves the government is popular.

UPDATE 1750 GMT: The Muslim Brotherhood have also withdrawn from the second round of the elections.

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Wikileaks-Iran Feature: The Case of the Disappearing Anti-American Graffiti

In May 2009, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton sent out a cable to the Department's Iran experts around the world about "a report regarding an Iranian Government decision to remove anti-American slogans and art from Tehran's buildings":

WHAT, IF ANY, ANTI-AMERICAN SLOGANS AND MURALS ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPLACED IN TEHRAN, INCLUDING THOSE IN AZADI SQUARE AND THE "DOWN WITH AMERICA" MURAL ON KARIM KHAN AVENUE?

WHAT, IF ANY, PLANS ARE THERE TO REPLACE SUCH MURALS?* IF THERE ARE PLANS TO REPLACE THE MURALS, WHO AUTHORIZED THEM? WHAT ARE THE REASONS FOR THE MURAL REPLACEMENT PLAN?

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Wikileaks-Iran Analysis: Assessing Engagement and War (Sick)

According to the record, the Obama administration was briefing allies almost from the start — and before Iran had even had a chance to respond to offers of engagement — that we expected this initiative to fail and that we were actively preparing the pressure track that would immediately follow.

Iran could hardly have been unaware of all this, so the chance that they would respond favorably — even before the contested election in June 2009 and the brutal crackdown that followed — was essentially zero. The only conclusion I can draw from this is that Obama was never sincere about his engagement strategy. It has yet to be tried.

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Wikileaks Special: A Guide to Day 2 of EA's Coverage

Missed anything? Catch up with A Guide to Day 1 of EA's Coverage:

Analysis

Ali Yenidunya  draws out the significance of another set of US reports on Turkey.

Document

This may be the most incisive intelligence and analysis of post-election Iran you will read all year. A European diplomat, just returned from an ambassador's post in December 2009, enlightened US officials:  "'Death to Khamenei' --- The Inside Line on the Post-Election Situation, Tehran's Politicians, Nuclear Talks, & US Hikers".

Videos and Transcripts

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton denounces WikiLeaks. And Clinton and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu --- criticised by US officials in the WikiLeaks cables --- smile and don't mention the matter.

Podcast Special: Scott Lucas on "US Politics and the Future of Obama"

The University of Birmingham's Ideas Lab is pursuing an excellent initiative to bring the voices of academics to a general audience. I had the chance to speak with them this week about the work of EA WorldView and, specifically, about the current state of play in US politics.

Questions include: How serious is the setback for President Obama from the 2010 Congressional elections? What are the prospects for the Republican Party? Is Sarah Palin --- and beyond Palin, the Tea Party --- an asset or an albatross for those Republicans? How does an often-polarised US media affect politics? And what is likely to occur in the 2012 campaign?

Have a listen: it may be the only chat on US politics this month to bring in the significance of Dancing with the Stars.

Listen to the interview....

Egypt Elections: The Official US Statement "Reports Give Us Cause for Concern"

From the State Department:

Reports from domestic civil society monitors, candidate representatives, and government officials on the conduct of yesterday’s elections give us cause for concern. We are disappointed by reports in the pre-election period of disruption of campaign activities of opposition candidates and arrests of their supporters, as well as denial of access to the media for some opposition voices. We are also dismayed by reports of election-day interference and intimidation by security forces. These irregularities call into question the fairness and transparency of the process. We continue to believe that allowing international observers to monitor and freely report on elections, a normal practice in the region and around the world, is very important in building public confidence in a fair and open election.

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Egypt Watch: Latest on the Parliamentary Elections

For previous updates on the election, see our Sunday-Monday LiveBlog and our video collection:

2110 GMT: Security sources say 16 people died and more than 100 were injured during Sunday's elections. They claim the victims died from heart attacks, diabetic coma. and fights.

2100 GMT: In the Upper Egyptian city of Qena, hundreds of people gathered today in front of an administrative building of the governorate to protest the alleged rigging of the vote against independent candidate Alnumeiry Rashwan in the city of Niqada.

Streets around the governorate’s administrative complex were closed and the city was put under tight security.

In Niqada, two candidates of the ruling National Democratic Party are in a run-off.

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The Latest from Iran (30 November): Life Beyond Wikileaks

2010 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Student activist Nasim Soltanbaygi has been sentenced to six years in prison.

2005 GMT: Strike a (Nuclear) Pose. Back from a break to find President Ahmadinejad carrying out his standard approach --- agree to talks with the "West" but try to establish a position of strength by denouncing the "West" --- in a speech in Sari in northern Iran.

With discussions confirmed with the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, Russia) in Geneva on 6-7 December, the President charged, "While the Tehran negotiations [with Brazil and Turkey] were underway, you passed an illegal resolution against the Iranian nation and today you insist on continuing negotiations."

Ahmadinejad said is always ready to enter nuclear negotiations with the West as long as Iran's rights are respected, advising the negotiating side to put away its "tyrannical" attitude.

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Wikileaks-Iran Document: "Death to Khamenei" --- The Inside Line on the Post-Election Situation, Tehran's Politicians, Nuclear Talks, & US Hikers

"The biggest 'game changer' had been this past summer's presidential elections. The events were causing backlash from much of the population. Parents and grandparents were saying that they do not want their children to be forced to experience the same Iran that they, themselves, have been living under for the last 30 years. For the first time, one can see "kill Khamenei" and "death to Khamenei" scrawled on walls in Tehran. These direct challenges to Khamenei's authority are new and significant. Additionally, XXX expects that the population was disillusioned by the overwhelming fraud in the elections and many will not vote in the future."

EA correspondents believe this may be one of the valuable documents --- for intelligence and analysis --- to come out of the Wikileaks release so far. In December 2009, a European diplomat, who had recently left an ambassador's post in Iran, spoke to American officials about the 2009 election, Iran's internal situation, and the nuclear talks.

Each paragraph of this cable is filled with information and insight on post-election Iran, much of which is still relevant today.

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Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu pays a visit to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Monday. No details here --- the meeting was overshadowed by the WikiLeaks affair, which took over Clinton's later statement (see separate entry). However, both officials were keen to show that the leak of the documents, in which US officials said some less than flattering things about Davutoglu.

And not hard to guess that talks with Iran, which begin on 5 December and in which Turkey is playing a key role as broker, were high on the agenda....

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