Iran Election Guide

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Monday
Nov152010

Israel Analysis: What Does Obama Expect from Netanyahu? (Benn)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned from his journey to the United States with an American dictate: Freeze settlements for three months, during which time speedy negotiations will be held to determine the future border between Israel and Palestine. To soften the impression that this would be seen as giving in to U.S. pressure and to make it easier to gain cabinet approval for the freeze, the dictate was padded with political and security goodies, which can be summed up as such: stealth military aircraft in exchange for an end to Netanyahu's evasive tactics.

The prime minister rejected the offer when it was made before the U.S. midterm elections, but now he understands that the game is up and he has to fall in line.

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Monday
Nov152010

Israel-Palestine Analysis: Netanyahu to Get Narrow Acceptance of US Incentives, Palestinians Set Aside (For Now)

It has not been a week of progress for Palestinian officials. The reconciliation talks between Fatah and Hamas have failed to show any signs of reconciling, and Yasser Abed Rabbo, Secretary-General of Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), told reporters Sunday that he and his colleagues were in the dark on other important matters: 

The Palestinian side is unaware of the details of the talks between the Israeli side and the Americans concerning finding a middle-ground form over freezing settlements. Once we receive an official American response, the Palestinian leadership would study it.

Beyond this feigned surprise, it is obvious that Ramallah is not confident with the proposal to West Jerusalem.

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Sunday
Nov142010

Iraq Video: EA's Scott Lucas on Al Jazeera's Inside Story

On Saturday I discussed the latest political situation in Iraq with MP Mahmoud Othman of the Kurdistan Alliance and Muhannad al-Bayati of the Iraqqiya coalition.

There has been some further chatter since we filmed this almost 24 hours ago, but nothing to change my opinion that Iraq is still some ways from the "formation of a government", let alone political stability. I also note that Western media, including some well-respected analysts, continue to be distracted by tangential speculation of whether the US or Iran has "won" or "lost" in this episode: the matter is, first and foremost, one concerning Iraqi politicians.

Sunday
Nov142010

Afghanistan Latest: Karzai Criticises US Military --- Posture or Opposition? (Partlow)

It is far from unprecedented for Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai to come out publicly against US military operations. He did so, for example, when American aerial bombing brought civilian casualties.

Still, this latest criticism comes as US commander David Petraeus is loudly spinning the success of the current American counter-insurgency strategy, which relies on the high-profile "offensive" of the American military in central and southern Afghanistan.

So does Karzai have a fundamental problem with the Petraeus strategy or is he just scoring a few political points with his domestic audience?

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Sunday
Nov142010

Burma/Myanmar Latest Video and Reports: The Freeing of Aung San Suu Kyi and Today's Speech

UPDATE 1645 GMT: The BBC has posted an audio interview with Aung San Suu Kyi. The opening exchange:

Q: What were you thinking as you walked out (of your house) yesterday?

A: I was wondering how I could make myself heard above the noise.

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Sunday
Nov142010

Iran Snapshot: Loving the American Car (Koscs)

The scene has been played out so many times as to border on cliché. It begins with an impromptu meet-up of two Chevy Camaros, each announcing its prowess with a V-8 rumble. Then, despite good-natured banter between the drivers, an unspoken challenge is made. Finally, a tire-smoking showdown ensues.

One big difference this time: the encounter, which took place at summer’s end, did not begin on the main drag of a small Midwestern town and pursue resolution on a deserted country road. Instead, the Camaros, a pair of pumped-up early ’70s models owned by friends, faced off at the Azadi Stadium Race Track in Tehran.

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Sunday
Nov142010

The Latest from Iran (14 November): "Green Movement is Alive"

2120 GMT: CyberWatch. The website of the Feminist School has been filtered for the 19th time by Iranian authorities.

2100 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. HRANA reports that Commander Moghaddam, head of Mir Hossein Mousavi's Isargaran Committee, has been arrested after he and other veterans had a meeting with Mousavi this week.

2055 GMT: Economy Watch. While Iran waits for the implementation of subsidy cuts, Rah-e-Sabz reports that prices for 29 essential foods have risen weekly, with the highest increases for fresh vegetables (10.3%) and legumes (5.6%).

2045 GMT: Free Thinking, Khatami Style. Former President Mohammad Khatami, meeting former academics, has said that criticism of the regime is "due to sympathy". Speaking directly about the suspension of "Western-style" humanities instruction in universities, Khatami declared, "You cannot change the world or humanities with official orders".

The former President added, "If politics is based on free elections, many problems will be solved."

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Sunday
Nov142010

Turkey in the Axis of Radicalism? An Alternative View of Europe (Dedeoglu)

If cooperation between France and the UK compels Germany to reinforce ties with Russia, then we will witness a real axis shift within the EU. If that happens, the debates on Turkey will also change as the “non à la Turquie” front collapses. The EU member countries may start competing with each other through Turkey, and some countries may stop refusing Turkey’s accession and while others increase their level of opposition.

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Sunday
Nov142010

Israel-Palestine Analysis: More US "Incentives" to Netanyahu; Little Cost to West Jerusalem

So Netanyahu continues to pile up Israel's possible victories. Washington has put even more goodies on the table for the limited step of a limited restriction on new Israeli settlements. Moreover, Netanyahu still has the "recognition of Israel as a Jewish State" card in his hand --- if the Palestinians will not make this commitment in advance of negotiations, the Israeli Prime Minister may say with regret that honest talks cannot resume.

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Saturday
Nov132010

Iraq: EA's Scott Lucas on Al Jazeera's Inside Story

I will be appearing on Al Jazeera's Inside Story, broadcast today at 1730 GMT with repeats later tonight and tomorrow morning, to discuss the latest political situation in Iraq. The other two interviewees are representatives from the Kurdistan Alliance and Iraqqiya, the party led by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi.