US Elections Analysis: A Warning for the Tea Party

The electorate clearly showed the limits of their support for the Tea Party, in an economic climate when everything was in their favor. That ceiling will only lower over the next two years as the reality of wielding power in the House tarnishes their anti-establishment core appeal. We have had three elections now in a row where there has been a wave of protest votes against Washington; in two years, that protest may be one of rejection of a record of “no compromise.”

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The Latest from Iran (4 November): What Will Happen on an Anniversary?

2110 GMT: Proper Teachers. The Ministry of Education Ministry has issued new directives barring the employment as school teachers of persons affiliated with "illegal" parties, organizations, and groups.

Such persons may not be employed as teachers "unless they repent" of the affiliation or withdraw the support.

The directive also gives priority of employment to those who "volunteer for activities in revolutionary institutions" and "participate in political, social, and religious activities".

2055 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch (Hunger Strike Edition). Back from an extended break to find that detained attorney Nasrine Sotoudeh has resumed her hunger strike, refusing food and water since Sunday.

Sotoudeh, who was imprisoned at the start of September, went on a hunger strike for four weeks but ended it on 23 October.

There are reports that the prominent Italian lawyer Bruno Malattia has taken on the defence of condemned adultress Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani and her attorney Houtan Kian, who was detained last month.

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US Elections Analysis: No Victory, Only Stalemate

UPDATE 1605 GMT: Amongst all the post-mortems, I was struck by this conclusion from Alexander Cockburn: "By 1996 Clinton had outmaneuvered the Republican leadership and won reelection. Today the economic situation is far worse than it was in 1994. No effective political and economic strategy for recovery is on the cards in the current atmosphere. As always, these days in America, our last best friend will be gridlock."

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With the notable exceptions of health care reform and financial regulation, the situation in Washington has been one of stalemate, with the Republicans blocking Obama's legislation --- even in the limited success on health care, not one GOP Senator voted for the bill --- but lacking the strength or willingness to make deals with the Democrats to put forth their own measures.

That situation has not changed. So the best prospect is to try and keep the American economic ship on the water, rather than under it, amidst protracted recession and unemployment. (And, although this was largely forgotten in campaign coverage, to do so while keeping large numbers of troops in Iraq and fighting a war in Afghanistan and Pakistan.)

The Democrat/Obama strategy will be to present this pragmatic "stay the course" approach, appealing to the good sense --- political and economic --- of an American centre. It is unlikely they could do more, even if they wanted to take the risk. No prospect of climate change legislation, no campaign reform measures, no further moves on health care. And unless the Republicans do more than put forth a vague "Pledge for America", unless the Tea Party can move beyond the appealing but illogical mantra --- given the existence of programmes like Medicare and Social Security, let alone US defense --- of "slash taxes, slash Government", they will not be putting forth any significant programme for progress.

So the ultimate outcome of Tuesday night is stalemate. And as even a beginner chess player will tell you, that's not a win.

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The Latest from Iran (3 November): The Execution Rumour

2050 GMT: Labour Front. Green Voice of Freedom reports that about 500 workers in the South Pars gas field have gone on strike over unpaid wages.

2015 GMT: Battling Statements. The Society of Teachers and Researchers of Qom has called for an enthusiastic presence at 13 Aban (4 November) rallies>

In contrast, the youth and students of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front declared that rulers should take a lesson from 13 Aban and return from the wrong track of tyranny.

1905 GMT: Execution Watch. Attorney Mohammed Mostafaei, who now lives in exile in Norway, has told Voice of America that he has been informed that a report of the imminent hanging of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani was not correct.

Mostafaei asserts, "This news was wrong. I called my friends in Iran....I have some friends in the Iranian judiciary in Tabriz and I talked about this news and they said the news is not true and they informed me that there is not any hanging execution in Sakineh's case. There is only a stoning punishment."

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Cargo Bombs and the Terrorism/Counter-Terrorism Stalemate

The current battle between terrorists linked to or inspired by Al Qa'eda and counter-terrorist forces is similar to a chess match. Each terrorist move is met by a response. The response is then examined and the next move is made by those planning attacks.

The terrorists cleverly exploited gaps in airport security to carry out 9/11. Airport security was tightened, but gaps remained. The shoe bomber Richard Reid was the next test. So now shoes had to be scanned at airports. Then it was the liquid gel plot, leading to the restriction that not more than 100 millilitres of liquid can be carried on an airplane. Last December it was the underwear bomber, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, and full body scanners are in place.

The latest development is cargo bombs after terrorists recognised that freight, even on passenger planes, does not receive the same scrutiny as people and their luggage. So what are the lessons from the incident?

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US Special: LiveBlog of the 2010 Elections

Updated on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 at 22:00 by Lee Haddigan

2030 GMT: Democrat Michael Bennet is now being called the winner in the Colorado Senate race. With 90% of the ballots counted, he has a 15,000-vote lead over Republican/Tea Party candidate Ken Buck.

1208 GMT:Senate Updates. Democrat Michael Bennet has taken his first lead, with 88% of the votes counted, over Republican/Tea Party candidate Ken Buck. It's only 48-47, but with the majority of outstanding ballots likely to favour Bennet, this looks a probably Democratic hold.

Washington, because of its large number of postal ballots to be counted, is in suspension with Democratic incumbent Patty Murray holding a 14,000 vote edge over Republican Dino Rossi. More than one-third of the vote remains to be tallied.

And in Alaska, it looks like Governor Lisa Murkowski, running as an Independent, will have enough of an edge to not only win but overcome any legal challenge. "Write-Ins", almost of which will be for Murkowski, has 41% v. 34% for the Tea Party candidate, Joe Miller, who upset her in the Republican primary.

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Iraq Latest: At Least 63 Killed in Multiple Bombings (Al Jazeera)

Al Jazeera reports:

A series of explosions across Baghdad, the Iraqi capital, has killed at least 63 people and wounded 285 others, hospital and police officials say.

The bombings began at about 6:15pm local time on Tuesday and took place in at least 10 neighbourhoods, involving booby-trapped cars, roadside bombs and mortar strikes.

"Ten cars exploded with bombs inside them. There were also four roadside bombs and two sticky bombs," said Major General Qassim al-Moussawi, a Baghdad security spokesman.

The attacks appeared directed mostly at the city's majority Shia population, though some blasts occurred in Sunni neighbourhoods.

Rawya Rageh, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Baghdad, said most of the blasts happened near markets and banks and areas that are usually crowded at that time in the evening.

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US Elections 2010: Cut Out and Keep Guide to The 10 Key Senate Races

These are the 10 Senate races, out of 37 contests today, that are most likely to determine which party --- if any --- controls the upper house of the US Congress up to the 2012 Presidential contest.

With the current balance at 59 Democrats/Democratic-allied Independents and 41 Republicans, the GOP needs to win all 10 of these battles to take a slim majority. If the Republicans win nine, the Democrats maintain nominal supremacy through the casting vote of the presiding officer, Joe Biden.

Other high-profile races that are unlikely to affect the overall picture:

Delaware: Christine O'Donnell, the Tea Party candidate who has livened up this campaign (especially on the pages of EA USA), is now trailing significantly to Democrat Christopher Coons.

Kentucky: Rand Paul, the first Tea Party insurgent to topple a Republican in a primary, is odds-on favourite to hold the seat for the GOP against Democrat Jack Conway.

Florida: In a three-way contest, upstart conservative Marco Rubio will probably win for the Republicans against Governor Charlie Crist, who left the Republicans in April to run as an independent, and  Democrat Kendrick B. Meek.

Alaska: Another three-way battle, with Tea Party and Sarah Palin favourite Joe Miller likely to triumph over Lisa Murkowski, the Governor whom he defeated in the Republican primary, and Democrat Scott McAdams.

Now the key contests....

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The Latest from Iran (2 November): Honouring an Un-Free Press

2135 GMT: Speak Up. Darioush Ghanbari, the spokesman of the minority in Parliament, has called on reformists to break their silence and express their viewpoints about the issues facing the country: “In the current situation, it is necessary that reformists, especially the reformist parliamentarians, express their criticisms… because in this way people become informed about the issues and our identity as a political group is recognized in the Majlis.”

2130 GMT: Subsidy Cuts Watch. Iran's Deputy Minister of Trade has given shopkeepers a 48-hour ultimatum to "adjust" prices so they will be acceptable.

1740 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Fararu claims that the cleric who requested the release of prominent reformist politician Ali Shakouri Rad was Ayatollah Shobeiri Zanjani (see the claim by Iran's Prosecutor General in yesterday's updates).

Another son-in-law Of Molavi Abdul Hamid, Zahedan's Friday Prayer leader, has been arrested.

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Lebanon Interview: State Department's Feltman Plays with Beirut as a Pawn

A depressing interview in The Washington Post with the Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, Jeffrey D. Feltman.

It's depressing because almost none of Feltman's words --- and thus, I presume, the State Department's attention --- are about Lebanon. There's no recognition here of the concerns of the Lebanese people, of the relationship amongst Shia, Sunni, Christian, and Druze communities, of the economic, social, and religious issues in the country, of the initiatives to bring some agreement amongst factions and thus some progress. Indeed, the only Lebanese whom Feltman specifically notes --- apart from a fleeting reference to President Michel Suleiman (not even a mention for Prime Minister Saad Hariri) --- are "Hezbollah".

That is because Feltman's concern is not about Lebanon but about Syria and Iran, to the point where he drops all pretence of "Lebanon" at one point and talks about the situation in Iraq. The interviewer is no better: note the concluding question, "So you don't think Lebanon is about to fall into Iran's hands?":

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