US Special: LiveBlog of the 2010 Elections

2030 GMT: Democrat Michael Bennet is now being called the winner in the Colorado Senate race. With 90% of the ballots counted, he has a 15,000-vote lead over Republican/Tea Party candidate Ken Buck.

1208 GMT:Senate Updates. Democrat Michael Bennet has taken his first lead, with 88% of the votes counted, over Republican/Tea Party candidate Ken Buck. It's only 48-47, but with the majority of outstanding ballots likely to favour Bennet, this looks a probably Democratic hold.

Washington, because of its large number of postal ballots to be counted, is in suspension with Democratic incumbent Patty Murray holding a 14,000 vote edge over Republican Dino Rossi. More than one-third of the vote remains to be tallied.

And in Alaska, it looks like Governor Lisa Murkowski, running as an Independent, will have enough of an edge to not only win but overcome any legal challenge. "Write-Ins", almost of which will be for Murkowski, has 41% v. 34% for the Tea Party candidate, Joe Miller, who upset her in the Republican primary.

1200 GMT: The Undecided Races. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight has a nice round-up:

Results in Alaska are fluctuating a bit, with “write-ins” now holding about a 5-point lead on Joe Miller. How many of those write-ins will eventually be deemed legal ballots for Lisa Murkowski is the question, of course. My hunch going into the election was that anything below a 5-point margin would probably trigger some kind of legal challenge, while anything above 5 points probably wouldn’t, and we’re right at that threshold....

County-by-county extrapolations suggest that Democrats are more likely than not to win the Senate races in both Colorado and Washington once all the votes are counted; Colorado might actually be the safer bet of the two, even though Michael Bennet trails slightly there based on the votes counted so far....

Our current projection is that Republicans will finish with a total of 243 house seats [a majority of 51]: this would reflect a net gain of 65 from Democrats.

Silver has a different take from my "Nobody Really Won" with his focus on the House of Representatives, "That’s an amazing result for Republicans — and far more remarkable from a historical perspective than the fact that Democrats were able to leg out a couple more wins than expected in the Senate. I’m not trying to be a media critic here, but Republicans have some legitimate gripe with portrayals of the night as having been a split decision."

0715 GMT: Just did first media work of day, with LBC Radio in London --- World Update on BBC World Service to follow at 0930 GMT. My interim take-away....

"Not So Fast". Fox, as expected, is dancing over the bodies of fallen Democrats, and CNN is stuck in its monotonous talking point of "stunning defeat" for the President.

That is true in the lower house, the House of Representatives, but if Patty Murray holds on in Washington and Michael Bennet covers a current 7000-vote deficit in Colorado with ballots coming in from the big cities of Denver and Boulder, the Democrats will have lose only six seats. Counting the two Democratic-allied Independents, they will still have 53 of the 100 votes in the Senate.

And here's the stunner. In Alaska, Lisa Murkowski --- the Governor who was defeated by a Tea Party candidate in the Republican primary --- is increasingly likely to get revenge by winning as an Independent.

Indeed --- and many in the US media are missing this --- the Tea Party has been knocked back in the last few hours. Joe Miller's likely loss in Alaska, despite Sarah Palin trying to boost that campaign as part of her launch ramp for President 2012, has been accompanied by Sharron Angle's failure in Nevada. If Ken Buck does not hang on in Colorado, that pretty much reduces "insurgent" success to Rand Paul in Kentucky and possibly Ron Johnson in Wisconsin.

0710 GMT: How to Expose Premature "Analysis"

CNN is blowing the trumpet of a "bigger setback than expected for President Obama". But that hyperbole is based on the races in the House of Representatives. In the Senate, the Democrats may be clawing back some ground: FiveThirtyEight, looking at the results still to come in Colorado and Washington, sees Democrats Patty Murray and Michael Bennet winning.

0700 GMT: Votes have also been held on referenda in most states. Two notable cases: California's Proposition 19 to legalise marijuana ("Yes We Cannabis") has been defeated, although marijuana for medical uses can still be grown. And in Colorado, an anti-abortion measure has failed.

0645 GMT: In the Governor's races, a mixed set of results.

Overall, the Republicans have control of 10 state houses, with the big victories across the "Rust Belt" in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, through the Midwest in Iowa, Wisconsin, Kansas, and Oklahoma, further West in Colorado and New Mexico, and in the South in Tennessee.

However, the result of the night may be in California, where the Democrat Jerry Brown --- who was the state's youngest Governor when he took office in 1975, serving two terms --- is back with a victory over Meg Whitman, the former Chief Executive Officer of eBay. So it is out with "the Terminator", as Arnold Schwarzenegger hands over the keys to the state house, and in with "Governor Moonbeam".

The Democrats have also gained Hawaii, and former Senator Lincoln Chafee, running as an Independent, should win a three-way race in Rhode Island.

But there could be further surprises: races in seven states, including Florida and Illinois, are still up in the air.

0635 GMT: The state of play in the 435-member House of Representatives....

With 23 seats still undeclared, the Republicans have assured themselves of a clear majority. They have 233 victories vs. only 179 for the Democrats.

It is looking like an overall gain of about 60 seats for the GOP. FiveThirtyEight nicely summarises it as an "orderly wave": they had called 53 of the switches, and of the other seven, the losing Democrat had been favoured by less than 3% in the final polls. Some of the "liberal/progressive" Democrats whom Republicans hoped were vulnerable --- Barney Frank in Massachusetts, John Dingell in Michigan, Dennis Kucinich in Ohio, and Norm Dicks of Washington --- all retained their seats.

0615 GMT: Scott Lucas here, taking the morning shift in Britain. Thanks to Lee Haddigan for a great job overnight. Picking up on the key points, beginning with the Senate....

Of the five key races that Lee left hanging, Pennsylvania is now being called for the Republican Pat Toomey, who has a 51-49 lead over Joe Sestak with 91% of votes counted. Also a GOP victory in Illinois, with Mark Kirk up 48-46 with 93% of the vote in.

The big news for the Democrats is that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has survived in Nevada: he is ahead 50-45 over Tea Party candidate Sharron Angle with only 12% of the vote left to count.

That leaves three races in the air: in Colorado, Tea Party-backed Ken Buck has a slim 48-47 lead over Michael Bennet with 81% of the ballots counted. In Washington, it's 50-50 between Democratic incumbent Patty Murray and Republican Dino Rossi.

And here's a twist that we did not expect --- there's an 11th significant race. In Alaska, the current leader of a three-way race is "Write-Ins" with 39%. Presumably, almost all of those are for Governor Lisa Murkowski, who ran as Independent after she was defeated in the Republican primary by the Tea Party- (and Sarah Palin-) supported Joe Miller. With 49% of the vote in, Miller has 35% and Democrat Scott McAdams 25%.

In the latest declaration in a notable race, the long-time Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer has turned back the challenge of Carly Fiorina.

0340 GMT: Of our 10 Senate races to watch 4 have gone Republican (Wisc., Ark., Indiana, and North Dakota) , and 1 Democrat (WV). Of the 5 left Pennsylvania and Illinois look like Republican gains, with Colorado, Nevada, and Washington still up in the air. What looks likely, however, is that the GOP are not going to perform as well in the Senate as they hoped, especially as rumours are beginning that they may not be able to retain the seat they hold in Alaska. I am expecting, when I wake up, to find that Republicans did not meet my benchmark figure of 49 Senators --- they "won small".

So, a mixed night for Republicans. A strong mandate from the people for the House of Representatives, and a lukewarm endorsement of the "no compromise" stance in the Senate.

Scott Lucas will pick up the election coverage in a few hours, and bring some order to proceedings. It was fun, though there were no great surprises. Just that pesky KY-6 District race disturbing my peace. It is still undecided, with 600 votes separating the two candidiates with a turnout of about 238,000 in total.

0315 GM:T Media Matters for America, a liberal media watchdog, has just released a report on why Democrats lost this election. It was all the fault of Fox News.

0300 GMT: No American election website calling the Pennsylvania race, and in fact Pat Toomey leading narrowly with 93% in: did the BBC make a mistake?

02.55 GMT The BBC just called Pennsylvania for the Democrat Joe Sestak. Nothing from Fox so far.

02.50 GMT An exciting contest to finish with. With 90% of votes in, the Pennsylvania Senate race is a virtual dead heat. So, warnings by Dems that this contest would be closer than the polls indicated appear vindicated. Unfortunately for them, it seems they have not been able to turn that bounce in their votes in Pennsylvania into a national trend.

02.40 GMT Wisconsin just called for Ron Johnson, the tea party backed GOP candidate. Now it's about Pennsylvania and Illinois, and my night is done

02.35 GMT Wow, now 50.1% to 49.9 with 99% of votes counted in Ky-6.

02.30 GMT IND-2 is retained by Donnelly and the Democrats. In KY-6 the Dem leads 50.2% to 49.8% with 98% reporting. This could well be THE contest, the 62nd most likely to switch, that tells the story of how the Republicans beat my benchmark number (51) handily, but not overwhelmingly. I'll call with Fox a 60 seat gain for the Republicans in the House; a "big win." But now it is vital for the tea party supporters they win the Senate seats in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Illinois. If one of those is a loss, against the pre-election polls, and the tea party message for the next Congress is drastically compromised. Angle can be forgiven for losing to the Senate Majority Leader, but Buck, Johnson, and Kirk neeed to win for the sentiment that the tea party is capable of being a serious political force for the next 2 years to stick.

IND-2 is the 67th most likely House District to switch from Dem control to Republican. The Dem incumbent Joe Donnelly leads Jackie Walorski 48-47 with 99% reporting. We may be finding the limit of this wave for Republicans in this election. A respectable wave (a breaker?) but not the tsunami some Reps were hoping for.

01.45 GMT Got to admire Dems refusal to go down without a fight. Just received an email from barackobama.com asking for volunteers to call voters in states where the polls are still open!

01.40 GMT North Dakota a Republican gain in the Senate. Of our 10 races to watch, all 10 giving the GOP a 51-49 majority, Repubs are +3 and the Dems +1. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are proving interesting races. Both still too close to call. Just seen Marco Rubio live from Florida. I'll amend an earlier guess. Paul Jr., and Rubio on one presidential ticket?

01.25 GMT Fox projecting 60 Republican gains in the House. Paul could have a lot of tea party caucus allies in the House to fulfil his promise.

01.15 GMT KY-6 still a tie with 96% of returns in. Talking Kentucky, Rand Paul was just on stage live promising to "take our country back." Don't know what it is about this guy, but I can see him becoming a major figure in US politics. What about a presidential run of Paul Jr., and Paul Sr.. Don't discount it

00.55 GMT Can the Republicans beat the benchmark number. Well, in KY-6 District, the 62nd most likely seat to change from Dem to GOP the race is tied with 85% of precincts reporting. Win this one and the GOP can start thinking major victory

00.42 GMT It's in; the projected result anyway. Republicans win IND-9. Now the question is how much of a majority will Republicans have in the next House of Reps.

00.40 GMT Manchin now projected to win Senate election in West Virginia. This means Republicans can do no better than a 50-50 tie, if they win Washington State. House results are beginning to come in. Alan Grayson loses in FL-8 district, and Dem incumbents lose in IND-8 and VA-5. But these are expected Republican pick ups, below our benchmark figure. Still waiting on a close IND-9 race....

00.30 GMT Republicans pick up the expected Senate seat in Arkansas. GOP now +2 of 2 in the 10 Senate races we are focusing on

Frank Luntz, a Republican pollster often on Fox, is on Sky's coverage. He is predicting something I have thought might happen for a while; that despite her lead in the polls Sharron Angle will lose in Nevada.

00.15 GMT 2 more Republican holds in the Senate in Missouri and New Hampshire. First good news for Dems? No one yet wants to call the Pennsylvania race with the polls closed in that race.

00.01 GMT Larry Sabato, a respected pollster from the University of Virginia Center of Politics, is a guest on BBC's coverage of the elections.

00.03 GMT Marco Rubio wins the Senate race in Florida, a hold for Republicans. GOP still +1 in the Senate, but Brit Hume just summed up the night so far. Nothing unexpected yet.

23.45 GMT Is the fairy tale over for Christine O'Donnell? CBS projecting, with 10 mins before plls close, a Chris Coons win.(Dem. hold, and seated immediately as he fills Joe Biden's old seat)

23.35 GMT As expected, Ohio Senate result a hold for Republicans. Still waiting for results that will start to indicate a national trend

23.20 GMT No surprises in South Carolina and Vermont Senate races. A Republican hold and Democrat hold respectively

23.05 GMT Fox news are projecting the expected victory for the Republican Dan Coats in the Senate race in Indiana (a gain). Also, that Rand Paul has won the Senate race in Kentucky (a hold). No margins of victory yet available

22.50 GMT First projected results expected from Kentucky and Indiana soon. Keep your eyes open for Indiana 9th District outcome. Anything more than a 5% win for the Republican, defeating a Democrat incumbent, and we are looking at the GOP exceeding our benchmark numbers.

2230 GMT An interesting claim from Dick Morris, a Republican strategist, on the Sean Hannity radio show. In Connecticut and Delaware, two Senate races with healthy Democrat leads in the polls, stories are emerging of a low turnout in Democrat areas. Michelle Malkin, a leading GOP blogger, tweeted, "Update: First, Delaware/Coons. Now, CT Dems/Blumenthal raising turnout alarm."

All rumours. But hope sparks eternal for Christine O’Donnell,the Tea Party favourite in Delaware.

2200 GMT: The first polls have now closed in some eastern parts of Kentucky and Indiana. Still a couple of hours before official results begin to emerge from those states, but it's time to fill the coffee pot and get ready for the ride. For those in Europe who will be going to bed at a respectable time, one of the first results, the House of Representatives race in Indiana’s 9^th congressional district, will give us an early indication of how the night’s events might transpire. Stay up, for that result at least. It could be (historic) fun.

Remember, all that follows is my interpretation of what tonight’s results will signify for the next two years. The numbers I am using below as benchmarks for tonight are completely arbitrary. What I see as an average base result for Republicans, especially in the Senate which I admit is a tough ask by itself, is open to debate. We’ll just have to wait and see if they hold water.

As I explained in an earlier post today we are taking 230 Republicans in the next House of Representatives as our benchmark figure, which means they need to take 51 seats from the Democrats. 218 seats will give them the simple majority they need to control the House, but in light of most election experts predicting gains of in the mid-50s (51 gives them 230 seats) winning the House is not enough for Republicans to claim they won these mid-terms. Results will be analyzed for their contribution to the debate that will take place post-elections. Thus, any outcome that signifies the Republicans will gain more than 51 seats is a good result for the GOP, and any returns showing Republicans may not achieve our 230 magic figure is bad for them.

 Current:         255 Democrats 178 Republicans 2 Vacancies (435 total)

Benchmark:    205 Democrats 230 Republicans (435 total)

The Senate looks unlikely to see Republicans overturn the Democrat majority of 59-41. Our benchmark figure will be a new Senate with 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats. Those eight gains for the GOP will be in the races they currently hold a slight majority over their Democrat opponents in close contests. To force a tie, Republicans need to add a victory in Washington State or West Virginia. Winning both those states will see them snatch an unlikely majority in the Senate

Current:       59 Democrats (with allies) 41 Republicans

Benchmark: 51 Democrats (with allies) 49 Republicans

Eight gains needed for benchmark; Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Colorado, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, North Dakota

For tie: West Virginia or Washington

For GOP majority: both of the above.

Of course, this is an election with regional factors determining voter choices. There will be surprises through the night. But we will be looking to figure out a national trend, in what has become a referendum on President Obama and his policies. And one development to keep an early eye open for is Democrats performing better than the polls anticipated. This means that they have managed, with some extraordinarily sophisticated get out the vote operations in some states, to persuade their supporters to ignore the so-called “enthusiasm gap,” and, even if holding their noses, back the Democrat candidate. 

These turnout numbers will be essential as Democrats trail well behind in the voter preference of likely voters. The last GALLUP generic poll favors Republicans 55-40 over Democrats. If that difference holds up over 80 seats will switch from Democrat to Republican, and we will be rewriting the electoral history books. The more Democrats who vote, especially those who supported Obama in 2008, the less seats Republicans win. Simple!

1900 GMT: The first polls close in the US midterms at 2200 GMT. There will be updates and analysis through the night as the results of significant races are declared. 

For background coverage, see today's Introduction to the US Elections and Guide to the 10 Key Senate Races and our complete Beginner's Tour of the US Elections on EA USA.

Update on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 at 22:00 by Lee Haddigan

22.00 GMT – The first polls have now closed in some eastern parts of Kentucky and Indiana. Still a couple of hours before official results begin to emerge from those states, but its time to fill the coffee pot and get ready for the ride. For those in Europe who will be going to bed at a respectable time, one of the first results, the House of Representatives race in Indiana’s 9^th congressional district, will give us an early indication of how the night’s events might transpire. Stay up, for that result at least. It could be (historic) fun

Remember, all that follows is my interpretation of what tonight’s results will signify for the next two years. The numbers I am using below as benchmarks for tonight are completely arbitrary. What I see as an average base result for Republicans, especially in the Senate which I admit is a tough ask by itself, is open to debate. We’ll just have to wait and see if they hold water.

As I explained in an earlier post today we are taking 230 Republicans in the next House of Representatives as our benchmark figure, which means they need to take 51 seats from the Democrats. 218 seats will give them the simple majority they need to control the House, but in light of most election experts predicting gains of in the mid-50s (51 gives them 230 seats) winning the House is not enough for Republicans to claim they won these mid-terms. Results will be analyzed for their contribution to the debate that will take place post-elections. Thus, any outcome that signifies the Republicans will gain more than 51 seats is a good result for the GOP, and any returns showing Republicans may not achieve our 230 magic figure is bad for them.

Current:          255 Democrats 178 Republicans 2 Vacancies (435 total)

Benchmark:    205 Democrats 230 Republicans (435 total)

As Scott detailed in his latest post the Senate looks unlikely to see Republicans overturn the Democrat majority of 59-41. Our benchmark figure will be a new Senate with 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats. Those 8 gains for the GOP will be in the races they currently hold a slight majority over their Democrat opponents in close contests. To force a tie Republicans need to add a victory in Washington State or West Virginia to their 8 gains. Winning both those states will see them snatch an unlikely majority in the Senate

Current:       59 Democrats (with allies) 41 Republicans

Benchmark: 51 Democrats (with allies) 49 Republicans

8 gains needed for benchmark; Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Colorado, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, North Dakota

For tie; West Virginia or Washington

For GOP majority; both of the above.

Of course, this is an election with regional factors determining voter choices. There will be surprises through the night. But we will be looking to figure out a national trend, in what has become a referendum on President Obama and his policies. And one development to keep an early eye open for is Democrats performing better than the polls anticipated. This means that they have managed, with some extraordinarily sophisticated get out the vote operations in some states, to persuade their supporters to ignore the so-called “enthusiasm gap,” and, even if holding their noses, back the Democrat candidate. 

These turnout numbers will be essential as Democrats trail well behind in the voter preference of likely voters. The last GALLUP generic poll favors Republicans 55-40 over Democrats. If that difference holds up over 80 seats will switch from Democrat to Republican, and we will be rewriting the electoral history books. The more Democrats who vote, especially those who supported Obama in 2008, the less seats Republicans win. Simples