Iran Analysis: How Secure is Ahmadinejad?

The Los Angeles Times parallels our analysis with an article this morning, "Iran is Far From United Behind Mahmoud Ahmadinejad".

And this passage in a Council on Foreign Relations interview with Professor Kaveh Ehsani, who is based at Chicago's DePaul University, is striking:

I don't think Ahmadinejad is in such a strong position. In fact, nobody is in a strong position in Iran at this moment.

It's very unclear who has the ultimate legitimacy. The population seems to be highly angered, disillusioned with a lot of the leaders. The Green Movement leaders --- [Mir Hossein] Mousavi and [Mehdi] Karroubi, the two presidential candidates who were the victims of the rigged elections --- seem to have retained their popular support among those who are unsatisfied with the system, but we don't know how strong these sentiments are because there is no way to measure it. There are no opinion polls, there is no free media. All the oppositional press has been suppressed.

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China Economy Weekly: Trade Battles with US, Power to Tibet, Investing In General Motors

Beijing Buys More US Debt:  China slightly increased its holdings of US Treasury debts in July, to $846.7 billion, after two months of net sales.

The news allayed concerns that Washington's largest creditor was moving away from investing in dollar assets.

Coincidentally, the debt data came out as two US Congressional hearings were being held on China's exchange rate policy. 

The hearings were attended by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who acknowledged that the two countries "have significant economic interests" in their relationship and highlighted the importance of the Chinese market on the US economic recovery. However, he expressed dissatisfaction with the pace of the yuan's appreciation.

China responding by warning that obsessing over yuan appreciation would not solve trade problems in the US and "might make things even worse"

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"It's Just Not Cricket": The Sports Betting Scandal Engulfing England and Pakistan (Haddigan)

On Monday the English cricket team played Pakistan in a one-day international at Lords, the spiritual home of the game. Not all was gentlemanly in the sport of gentlemen, however: a verbal and physical scuffle was sparked when an England player allegedly asked a Pakistani opponent how much he hoped to make from illegal betting on the game.

The incident escalated an already-tense situation. Three Pakistani players had been withdrawn from the tour of England after claims that "no-balls" had been bowled to pay off on large "spot bets". The chairman of Pakistan cricket subsequently claimed that English players had deliberately lost a game, escalating a scandal over match-fixing that threatens to tarnish the sport.

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UN Commission: Israel Broke International Laws in Flotilla Raid (BBC)

The BBC reports:

Israel's military broke international laws during a raid on a Gaza-bound aid flotilla, a UN Human Rights Council investigation says.

Its report said the action by commandos, which left nine dead, was "disproportionate" and "betrayed an unacceptable level of brutality".

It said there was clear evidence to support prosecutions against Israel for "wilful killing".

Israel rejected the report as "biased" and "one-sided."

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Iran Video and Transcript: Ahmadinejad on CNN (22 September)

Iranian President Ahmadinejad interviewed by CNN's Larry King:

Watch the full video and read the transcript....

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The Latest from Iran (23 September): Sending Out the Message, Cutting Off the Message

1559 GMT: Propaganda of Day. So I'm watching Press TV for a hint of when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will take the podium at the UN and these glorious shots of high-technology plants and hard-working engineers appears....

"The proud Iranian nation has accomplished another ground-breaking feat: the beginning of gasoline production in six petrochemical plants....Self-sufficiency in gasoline production is now within reach. The National Iranian Petrochemical Company. 'Yes, We Can'."

1555 GMT: Another Russia Snub? Novosti, via Peyke Iran, reports that President Medvedev has banned Basij commander Mohammad Reza Naqdi and Iranian nuclear officials from entering Russia.

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Iran Breaking: Journalist Emad Baghi Given 7-Year Sentence

EA has learned from reliable sources in Iran that journalist and human rights activist Emad Baghi has been "re-sentenced" and now must serve seven years in prison, with a five-year ban on civil activities.

Baghi was initially sentenced to six years after he conducted an interview with the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, a critic of the regime, which was broadcast on BBC Persian on January 2010 a month after Montazeri's death. Baghi was also interrogated about his views on the death penalty, his collaboration with human rights organizations, and his activities with a society defending prisoners’ rights.  

Last month, the Revolutionary Court, led by the "hard-line" Judge Salavati, sentenced Baghi to an additional year in prison and the five-year ban on civil activities. Yesterday, Baghi was again in court over his involvement in the defence of prisoners' rights.

Palestine Analysis: Abbas to Accept Israel's Build-Up of Settlements?

Speaking to US Jewish leaders in a phone call Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. He also called the Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas a real partner for peace. 

Two days later, at a dinner in New York, the "partner of peace" would not say that a renewal of settlement construction in the West Bank would end peace talks. Abbas said:  "I can't say I will leave the negotiations, but it will be very difficult to continue if Netanyahu will announce that he will start building."

Therefore, if Abbas's demand to the Obama Administration to extend the freeze by three months, during which time the issue of borders would be discussions, cannot find traction this week, then Netanyahu's plan of a continued build-up of large settlements could be the de facto position until final borders are drawn up by both sides. 

As we said on 15 September, "It is unlikely, however, that Damocles' sword will be held over West Jerusalem. Instead, as we pass 26 September without resolution, the Palestinians are likely to face this choice: compromise on the settlements or be labelled as 'rejectionists', if not by Obama's representatives then by the Israelis with whom they are supposed to find an agreement."

Iran Breaking: "Terrorist Attack" Kills At Least 10, Injures At Least 57

UPDATE 2105 GMT: Press TV says Iranian authorities have arrested two suspects.

UPDATE 1905 GMT: Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast has found both the culprit and the motive for the bombing: "The terrorist attack in Mahabad is the reaction of Israeli agents and the supporters of the Zionist regime to the country's defensive prowess in the Sacred Defense Week [commemorating the Iran-Iraq War] and the successes of the Islamic Republic of Iran's active diplomacy in the biggest international arena in New York. This terrorist attack coincided with the influential presence of the Iranian delegation headed by Dr. Ahmadinejad in New York and his influential public diplomacy in raising public awareness as well as his defense of our country's rightful stances."

UPDATE 1835 GMT: Press TV now reports 12 killed and 70 wounded.

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US Policy on Afghanistan: The Obama Administration's PR Offensive, "We Must, We Must Stay the Course"

For some time, we have been noting the US military's bureaucratic triumph over the President in the escalation of and persistence with the American campaign in Afghanistan, even beyond Barack Obama's nominal withdrawal date of July 2011.

Now the other shoe drops, courtesy of an article by Karen DeYoung in The Washington Post. This time it is the White House putting out the message: despite the growing doubts over the US intervention, despite the rising costs in money and lives, despite the complications of corruption, despite the inconclusive outcome of this week's Parliamentary elections, Washington will --- it must --- carry on.

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