EA Video Analysis: Two Lessons from The Israeli Airstrikes Inside Syria

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Five minutes to take apart Wednesday's Israeli airstrikes inside and to draw two lessons:

1. "The less important is that the Israelis are not going to alter the course of the Syrian conflict --- that is between the Assad regime and the insurgents, and the President is still on his way out."

2. "The significance of the Israeli attack is its impact on the regional situation beyond Syria, and specifically on Lebanon."

Iran Audio Feature: Hype & Reality from Syria to "Explosion at Nuclear Plant" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

Tehran University academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi: "Iran has many ways to hurt Israel"

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Speaking with Monocle 24's The Briefing on Friday, I reviewed the hype and reality of the latest stories about Iran, from its involvement in Syria to last week's false claim of an explosion near the Fordoo uranium enrichment plant.

Listen to discussion, starting at the 6:10 mark, on The Briefing's main page or in a pop-out window.

The interview begins by setting the record straight on Iran's reaction to Israeli airstrikes inside Syria --- Tehran did not threaten to retaliate with attacks on Israel's cities --- and on the Explosion That Never Happened. "We already have a crisis, and there's no need to escalate that for political advantage."

Then the impact: scare stories like these bolstered Senators who wanted to sabotage the appointment of Chuck Hagel as US Secretary of Defense, and they also expose "the cul-de-sac that the Obama Administration has gotten itself into over Tehran".

Listen out also for an explanation of how the Fordoo myth make it from a couple of dis-information specialists via a right-wing US website and "Israeli officials" to "respected" outlets like Spiegel and The Times of London.

The discussion is at the 6:10 mark, after the opening news headlines.

Iran Live Coverage: Tehran Mayor --- Why We Are Engineering the Presidential Election

See also Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- Monkey in Space, Journalists in Prison< /br>
Thursday's Iran Live Coverage: Imprisoned Journalists, Elections, & the BBC

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2015 GMT: Free Elections/Sedition Watch. Still 4 1/2 months until the Presidential election, but this was a Friday for many in the regime to throw rhetorical punches at "sedition" --- first, Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami:

Be careful for slogans in the next elections. "Free elections" completes the enemy’s puzzle because all elections have been free and competitive. One should not undermine the achievements of the system by using slogans, so be awake and aware because future seditions will begin with such words.”

Mohammad Hossein Saffar Harandi, the Cultural Deputy of the Revolutionary Guards on people's insight countering sedition: "This revolution took place among a people who are insightful and follow the velayat, and with self-awareness and through following the velayat they have familiarized the world with the revolution.”

Hossein Naghavi of Parliament's National Security Committee on the recent arrests of journalists:

American and British intelligence agencies are attempting to identify information sharing agents in the country and use it against the Iranian nation in a security puzzle through their dependent networks such as BBC and Voice of America, but proper vigilance and awareness and the praiseworthy Intelligence Ministry neutralized this conspiracy.

American and British intelligence agencies have been no match for the Unknown Soldiers of the Imam of the Age [Ministry of Intelligence agents].

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Syria Audio Feature: The Israeli Airstrikes...Now What? --- Scott Lucas with the BBC

Defense Research Facility Hit by Airstrike on WednesdayI joined BBC Radio Scotland this morning to assess the aftermath of Wednesday's Israeli air attacks on Syrian targets.

The take-away line: the primary effect of Israel's airstrikes will not be on the Syrian conflict --- that outcome still turns on the battle between the Assad regime and the insurgency --- and it will not be "retaliation" by Iran and Syria against Israeli territory.

Instead, the likely impact will be on the region beyond Syria. Watch in particular for an escalation of tension between Israel and Hezollah on the Israeli-Lebanese border.

The discussion begins at the 2:18.12 mark.

Israel, Palestine (and Beyond) Live Coverage: UN Declares Jewish Settlements in West Bank "Illegal"

2220 GMT: Egypt. The protesters in front of the Presidential Palace appear to be settling in for a long and drawn out battle:

Protesters moving back towards prez palace,dragging sheets of metal,cylindrical police pods anything they can get their hands on #Egypt

— Bel Trew - بل ترو (@Beltrew) February 1, 2013

#csf appeared to have withdrawn back towards gates of prez palace. Protesters building barricade. Extraordinary #Egypt

— Bel Trew - بل ترو (@Beltrew) February 1, 2013

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Syria Live Coverage: Fighting in and Near Damascus

Britain Channel 4's Jonathan Miller on the flight of a group of Syrians to Jordan

See also Syria Audio Feature: The Israeli Airstrikes...Now What? --- Scott Lucas with the BBC
Israel, Palestine (and Beyond) Live Coverage: UN Declares Jewish Settlements in West Bank "Illegal"
Thursday's Egypt (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Will There Be a "National Dialogue"?

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2215 GMT: Where is the Aid Money Going? Al Jazeera's James Bays reports:

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China Feature: Week in Review --- A Senior Official on Trial, "Stability" in Tibet, and a Porn Star Turned Politician (Lin)

Bo XilaiConfusion over Fate of Senior Official Bo Xilai

The Communist Party appears to be in some internal conflict over the handling of the case of senior official Bo Xilai, charged with "violating discipline".

According to Hong Kong-based Takungpao, Bo's trial was to held on last Friday. It would last three days, with the official's fate determined before the National People's Congress and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference in March.

However, the trial was not opened, and the Rarty's outlet Global Times said reports about it were “denied rumour”. The site said, from a source “close to the country's top judicial body”, that the trial will be held after the Congress and Conference and will last 10 days “due to the complexity" of the allegations.

Bo’s case erupted last spring, after the death of a British citizen, Neil Haywood. His wife was eventually sentenced to a suspended death penalty, and an official investigation in early November confirmed that Bo had been expelled from the party, amid accusations of abuse of power, bribe-taking, and improper relationships with women.

Other observers believe the proceeding against Bo --- former Chongqing Party Secretary, Minister of Commerce, and son of revolutionary hero Bo Yibo --- is tied to his failure in a power struggle.

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Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- Monkey in Space, Journalists in Prison (Arseh Sevom)

Everything has its place in Iran --- such as monkeys in space and journalists in prison.

And, oh what a prison! After detainees complain of their conditions, MPs visit Evin, calling it a “hotel.". Stoning makes a comeback — at least in print. The surveillance of Iran’s public spaces is revealed when Cafe Prague closes its doors in protest.

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US Audio Feature: Assessing Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State...and as a Presidential Candidate --- Scott Lucas with the BBC

I spoke with BBC Radio 5 Live's Morning Reports about US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, as she steps down today as Secretary of State --- and, probably, as she soon prepares a run for the Presidency in 2016.

"Clinton was most effective where she was a known quantity and where America was a known quanity. She was able to maintain a stable relationship with China, She was able to maintain a stable relationship with Europe.

Where Clinton has come up short, and indeed the entire Obama Administration --- I don't think they get it on the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia. They keep trying to position America at the centre of what's happening, and America doesn't necessarilyn hold that power to change everything. Clinton can't wave a wand and make this a US-led world."

The discussion begins at the 17:43 mark.

Egypt (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Will There Be a "National Dialogue"?

1651 GMT: Bahrain. Sheikh Ali Salman, the head of the opposition society Al Wefaq, has said he is ready for discussions on a political settlement to end almost two years of conflict, "We welcome it, we are ready for it. We believe that dialogue and negotiations are necessary."

However, Salman called for Crown Prince Salman to attend to show the Government's had to show its willingness to offer "concrete solutions": "We want someone who can speak for the royal family."

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