EA Special: 10 Predictions for 2013 --- Assad Gone, an Angry Middle East, and Little Change on "Human Rights"

See also 2012 in Review: How Did EA's Predictions Turn Out?

---

1. Syria --- The Assad Regime Will Fall It remains unclear what happens once President Assad is gone, but his regime will crumble in 2013. It may find some corner of Lattakia or Tartous to claim as a new capital for some time, but this will not last.

Assad's presence in the east has been reduced to a single airbase near Deir Ez Zor. Insurgents, led by Islamists, are also moving into Raqqa Province, and Hassakah will soon be cut off. The regime's supply lines to Aleppo are completely cut, with insurgents picking off military bases outside the city.

Eventually, Aleppo will fall. Insurgents will march south from Idlib Province, first taking Hama, then Homs, and then on to Damascus. If the Assad regime survives and is not overtaken by a surge in the capital before this, then the regime will have its back against the wall. The majority of Syria will already be in someone else's hands.

But whose hands?

Click to read more ...

Iran Live Coverage: All-Is-Well Oil Alerts

See also Sunday's Iran Live Coverage: Celebrating Victory Over Protests

---

2050 GMT: The Battle Within. Facing renewed attacks over his economic policies (see 1740 GMT), President Ahmadinejad has repeated his allegation that most of the Iranian economy is in the hands of 300 or 400 influential people. He said the Government cannot control them because "they reject it via the media".

Ahmadinejad continued --- in what can be construed as an attack on the Revolutionary Guards --- that "some organisations have their own banks and businesses and don't explain themselves" as they pursue "privatisation without rules".

Click to read more ...

Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: On Verge of "Hell" or "Sacred Birth"?

See also Sunday's Syria Live Coverage: "220 Executed" as Regime Advances in Homs

---

1935 GMT: Syria. Brown Moses considers a video, circulating since Saturday, claiming to be of a regime soldier executed by an Islamist brigade in Harem in Idlib Province.

Harem, just over a mile from the Turkish border, was captured by insurgents last week.

1930 GMT: Syria. Claimed footage of insurgents blowing up a regime tank today:

Click to read more ...

US Audio Feature: So How Serious is This "Fiscal Cliff"? --- Scott Lucas with the BBC

See also US Politics Special: A 6-Point Guide to the "Fiscal Cliff"

---

Complementing Lee Haddigan's six-point guide to the "fiscal cliff" --- in which taxes will increase and funding for some programmes will be in jeopardy if there is no political agreement by midnight --- I spoke with the BBC this morning to explain the issues and their significance.

The take-away line: "The US will not go into economic meltdown if the White House and Congress fail to reach a deal. The effect is psychological --- it is loss of confidence that could foster another recession."

nd will there be a deal? "We won't know until midnight tonight because this is a game of political chicken."

BBC Radio 5 Live: The discussion starts at the 6:08 mark.

BBC Radio Scotland: The item begins at 2:07.26.

BBC Radio Wales: The interview starts at 1:25.34.

Iran Feature: The Life of a Baha'i Female Political Prisoner (Sabeti)

The Vakilabad Prison has two wards for prisoners of conscience, the men's and women's. In the men’s ward, there may be a few students and supporters of the Green Movement, Mujahedin-e Khalq supporters, Baha’is, dervishes, Sunnis, and sometimes a Christian convert. In the women’s ward, there are currently nine Baha’i prisoners.

The women’s ward in Vakilabad Prison is a small room with an iron window half-a-metre in length that lets in very little sunlight. The room was used as storage until two and a half years ago. As the number of Baha’i prisoners rose, and after the Mashhad Intelligence Office issued orders to restrict contact between Baha’i prisoners and the rest of the inmates, this room --- at the far end of the women’s hall --- was turned into a cell for prisoners of conscience, and the Baha’i inmates were transferred there.

Click to read more ...

US Politics Special: A 6-Point Guide to the "Fiscal Cliff"

President Obama calls on Friday for a resolution to avoid the "fiscal cliff"

See also US Audio Feature: So How Serious is This "Fiscal Cliff"? --- Scott Lucas with the BBC

---

Editor's Note: As 2012 comes to a close, the emergency story in the US press is the "fiscal cliff". If there is no agreement by midnight, then tax cuts introduced by George W. Bush almost a decade ago will lapse, and funding of Federal programmes --- such as benefits for long-term unemployment and farm subsidies --- will be in jeopardy.

Discussions on Sunday were adjourned without agreement between the Obama Administration and Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress, despite Democratic concessions such as the raising of tax rates only on those making more than $450,000 a year and on an escalation of estate tax.

But as the haggling over details continues to the last minute, what are the basic economic issues? What happens if the clock strikes 12 and there is no dramatic resolution? EA's Lee Haddigan explains....

Click to read more ...

2012 in Review: How Did EA's Predictions Turn Out?

The Question We Asked Last Year: A Reliable Prediction? --- Right to Left: Tunisia's Ben Ali, Egypt's Mubarak, Libya's Qaddafi, Yemen's Saleh, Syria's Assad, Iran's Khamenei

---

On 1 January, I offered some predictions about the year ahead. How did they turn out?...

4. Speaking of Syria, things will get worse before they get better. The Arab League observers will produce a middling report, one that speaks of a crisis that needs fixing but will be slow to blame the highest levels of the Assad regime. International outcry will be loud. Eventually, someone will crack, and there will be intervention.

However, I would be shocked if this happened before April, and absolutely bewildered if it happened before March. The opposition is still, in the eyes of the world, not organised enough to serve as a skeleton upon which the international community can build a mission.

In the meantime, the protests will not go away, and more and more people will defect. Those defections, however, will not reach a tipping point for a long time for the regime, unless that international intervention happens.

Click to read more ...

Iran Live Coverage: Celebrating Victory Over Protests

See also Saturday's Iran Live Coverage: Cheerleading for Sanctions

---

Tehran, 30 December 20091759 GMT: At the Movies. The Iranian Directors Union has warned that cinema is on the verge of closure amidst censorship and economic difficulties.

Scores of movie houses have reportedly shut this year. The Ministry of Culture gave the reassurance that Iranians could always watch television.

1750 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, has been put in solitary confinement for three weeks for "insulting the Supreme Leader" and "disturbing order in prison".

Hashemi is serving a six-month sentence for propaganda against the regime.

Click to read more ...

Syria Live Coverage: "220 Executed" as Regime Advances in Homs

Rally in Deir Baalba in Syria, November 2011

See also 2012 in Review: How Did EA's Predictions Turn Out?
Egypt Feature: Not All "Islamist" Movements Are the Same....
Iraq Video: Evaluating the Surge in Anti-Government Protests
Saturday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: UN Envoy Brahimi's Mission is "Dead in the Water"

---

1735 GMT: Syria. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan has told thousands of Syrian refugees that their country is preparing for a "sacred birth" replacing President Assad with the will of the people: "We can see very clearly that God's help is close. Don't forget victory comes to those who are patient."

Erdogan stood next to Moaz Al-Khatib, the head of the Syrian opposition National Coalition.

Refugee camps in Turkey host 150,000 Syrians who have fled the conflict.

Click to read more ...

Iraq Video: Evaluating the Surge in Anti-Government Protests (Al Jazeera English)

---

Last week tens of thousands of mainly-Sunni Iraqis turned out in protests against the Government of Nuri al-Maliki, blocking roads to Jordan and Syria.

The catalyst for the most recent demonstrations was the raid by security forces on the home and offices of Minister of Finance Rafa al-Issawi, the highest-ranked Sunni in the Government after Vice President Tariq Hashimi fled the country following the accusation that he supervised death squads. However, long-standing grievances include discrimination, marginalisation of Sunnis, and the anti-terrorism law.

Al Jazeera English's Inside Story discusses the situation with Saad al-Muttalibi, a political advisor to the Government; Anas al-Tikriti, the CEO of the Cordoba Foundation; and Kurdish journalist Hiwa Osman.