2012 in Review: How Did EA's Predictions Turn Out?

The Question We Asked Last Year: A Reliable Prediction? --- Right to Left: Tunisia's Ben Ali, Egypt's Mubarak, Libya's Qaddafi, Yemen's Saleh, Syria's Assad, Iran's Khamenei

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On 1 January, I offered some predictions about the year ahead. How did they turn out?...

4. Speaking of Syria, things will get worse before they get better. The Arab League observers will produce a middling report, one that speaks of a crisis that needs fixing but will be slow to blame the highest levels of the Assad regime. International outcry will be loud. Eventually, someone will crack, and there will be intervention.

However, I would be shocked if this happened before April, and absolutely bewildered if it happened before March. The opposition is still, in the eyes of the world, not organised enough to serve as a skeleton upon which the international community can build a mission.

In the meantime, the protests will not go away, and more and more people will defect. Those defections, however, will not reach a tipping point for a long time for the regime, unless that international intervention happens.

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US Politics: Santorum Wins Republican Primary in Louisiana (Farnan and Blake)

Rick Santorum's speech in Wisconsin after winning the Louisiana primary

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Rick Santorum won the Louisiana primary on Saturday, boosting his claim as the leader of the conservative wing of the Republican Party even as his odds of beating Mitt Romney in the overall delegate race appear slim.

With nearly 95 percent of precincts reporting, Santorum led Romney 49 percent to 27 percent. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich was third with 16 percent and Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) was taking 6 percent.

Santorum said in remarks from Wisconsin, which is one of the next states in the GOP nomination contest, that his victory shows his campaign should keep going.

“This race is long and far from over,” Santorum said.

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US Politics: Romney Wins Big in Illinois (Smith)

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With a decisive win in the Illinois presidential primary, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney sets his sights on the bayou where Louisiana holds the next Republican primary.

"We thank the people of Illinois for this extraordinary victory," Romney told supporters in the Chicago suburb of Schaumburg. "Elections are about choices. Today, hundreds of thousands of people in Illinois joined millions of people in this country in this cause."

With 99% of precincts reporting, Romney led former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum by a 47%-to-35% margin. Texas Rep. Ron Paul was running third at 9%, while former House Speaker Newt Gingrich had 8%.

With the victory, Romney was poised to win at least 41 of the 54 delegates up for grabs in the state, giving him a total of 562, according to CNN's estimate. Santorum is second with 249, Gingrich third with 137 and Paul last with 69.

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US Politics Feature: Can Mitt Romney "Seal the Deal" in Illinois for the Nomination?

Today, voters in Illinois get their chance to determine who will win the Republican nomination for the US Presidency.

For the last week, following Rick Santorum's victories in Alabama and Mississippi, a close race has been predicted between him and Mitt Romney, a verdict with which several polls agreed, as the former Pennsylvania Senator began to eat in Romney's large lead in Illinois. That narrative has been called into question, however, by a poll on Monday which gave the front-runner a commanding edge of 45-30 over Santorum. That poll could be wrong, of course, but it does raise the possibility that Romney at last might finally seal the deal for his nomination.

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US Politics Developing: "Desperate End"? Santorum Wins Two Southern Primaries (Hanna/Helton)

Rick Santorum's speech after Tuesday night victories in the Alabama and Mississippi primaries

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Rick Santorum marches forward to the next GOP primary battle with wins in Alabama and Mississippi, throwing cold water on rival Mitt Romney's prediction that his campaign was reaching a "desperate end."

Romney, rejected again by Southern conservatives in the Tuesday primaries, was battling for second place with Newt Gingrich.

The latter had staked his campaign on a Southern strategy after winning South Carolina and Georgia.

In Alabama, Santorum won 35% of the vote. Gingrich and Romney both had 29% --- although Gingrich was about 2,000 votes ahead with 99% of the vote counted -- and Ron Paul had 5%.

With 99% of the vote counted in Mississippi, Santorum had 33%. Gingrich was at 31%, Romney at 30% and Paul at 4%. Romney claimed victory in the caucuses of American Samoa, local officials said, while caucus results in Hawaii had yet to come in.

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US Politics Analysis: How Rick Santorum Can Defeat Mitt Romney

Rick Santorum's campaign ad attacking Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich for supporting "Obamacare"

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Rick Santorum's biggest advantage over Mitt Romney in these next months will be his concentrated attack on the "Big Government" philosophy behind President Obama's economic policies, exemplified in the health care proposals. Santorum can rally Republicans behind the banner of individual freedom in a way that Romney cannot. If this election year is all about the economy, Santorum is beginning to articulate a positive vision of personal economic liberty that transcends the numbers of high unemployment and low growth.

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US Super Tuesday Summary: Romney "Wins", But It's Not Decisive

Mitt Romney addresses supporters in Ohio on Super Tuesday

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I have just spoken with the BBC about last night's contests for the Republican nomination for President --- audio to be posted later this morning --- with the take-away points: 1) Romney may have narrowly won the biggest state, Ohio, but the race goes on; 2) Romney is especially vulnerable, if the supporters of Newt Gingrich move towards Rick Santorum; 3) it's "money" v. "motivation" --- Romney has the bankroll, but Santorum's voters are far more committed in their support.

And 4) The biggest winner on Super Tuesday? Barack Obama.

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Romney wins 5 states, including Ohio; Santorum takes 3; Gingrich nabs Georgia
Paul Steinhauser and Tim Cohen, CNN 

Mitt Romney won five Super Tuesday states including the big prize of Ohio, while Rick Santorum took three states and Newt Gingrich grabbed a vital triumph in Georgia, CNN projected.

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US Politics Snap Analysis: Romney Wins Michigan & Arizona, But the Battle Continues

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Note the significant difference in the stories below about Mitt Romney's narrow victory in the Republican primary in Michigan, his home state, and his more comfortable win in Arizona --- The Washington Post portrays the night as "an important boost" for the former Massachusetts governor, while Al Jazeera English assesses they "will do little to dispel the doubts" about Romney's campaign. Nate Silver of the website 538.com summarises, "Tonight in awkward middle ground between 'huge night for Romney!'narratives and "'boy that was close!' narratives."

The easy conclusion is that Romney did enough to prevent being stuck with a Loser label that cannot be removed but did not do enough to put away his main challenger, Rick Santorum, before the showpiece of "Super Tuesday" next week, in which voters in 10 states will make decisions.

Beyond that, the "safe" analysis might that by Chris Cilizza, published below: "Romney is — as he has been since the day he entered this race — the best funded and best organized candidate in the race. That means that Romney has the operation in place to capi­tal­ize on the boost of momentum that he should get — in terms of media coverage and donor dollars — in the wake of these two victories."

But then again, no analysis has proven "safe" in this Republican campaign....

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US Politics Feature: Santorum Springs a Surprise in Republican Primaries (Rucker/Henderson)

Rick Santorum had a breakthrough night Tuesday, winning GOP presidential contests in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado, all of which is expected to breathe life into his struggling campaign and slow Mitt Romney’s march to the Republican presidential nomination.

The Santorum triumphs promise to, at least temporarily, alter the face of the campaign going into the crucial “Super Tuesday” contests, as the caustic tone of the primaries is expected to continue and intensify. Romney and his allies have signaled that they will use their financial advantage to launch stepped-up attacks on Santorum and on former House speaker Newt Gingrich, the other main challenger.

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US Elections Analysis: Romney's GOP Challengers Look for a Brokered Convention

Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Rick SantorumNewt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul will not admit it, as anything hinting at a defeatist attitude is a death-knell in American politics, but they hope to force a brokered convention. In that scenario, if Romney does not get the 50% of delegates he requires on the first ballot, the State delegates who were pledged to him can switch their support to another candidate.

Some "back of a napkin" mental arithmetic illustrates this reasoning.

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