EA Video Analysis: How to Become an Expert on US Presidential Election --- It's Down to 6 States

Obama? Romney? A Tie?

In Part 3 of How to Become an Expert, we explain how the US Presidential election is now down to six states --- Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, and Nevada --- and how Barack Obama, despite his stumble after the 1st Presidential Debate, still holds the advantage.

[Since we filmed this on Tuesday, Obama has bounced back with a strong performance in the 2nd Debate, while Mitt Romney faltered. Fortunately for us, the President's recovery in the polls since then --- he is now a 70% favourite to hold the White House, according to FiveThirtyEight --- bolsters our analysis.]

Catching up? Watch Parts 1 and 2 of How to Become an Expert on EA's Video Channel.

US Elections Analysis: Romney's GOP Challengers Look for a Brokered Convention

Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Rick SantorumNewt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul will not admit it, as anything hinting at a defeatist attitude is a death-knell in American politics, but they hope to force a brokered convention. In that scenario, if Romney does not get the 50% of delegates he requires on the first ballot, the State delegates who were pledged to him can switch their support to another candidate.

Some "back of a napkin" mental arithmetic illustrates this reasoning.

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US Elections Special: How Limits on Campaign Financing Are Being Demolished for 2012

The ugly issue of campaign financing is not new, but it has risen in prominence because of the January 2010 decision by the Supreme Court decision, which has opened the doors for corporations, unions, and individuals to make unlimited anonymous contributions to political campaigns. The ramifications of that decision, as they will affect next year's campaign are not yet fully known, but this could be the year that Super PACs emerge as the "kingmakers" --- albeit hiding the identity of the kingmakers who lie behind them --- of American politics.

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